Group 1 - The core message of the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of confidence and collective effort to achieve a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and to promote Chinese-style modernization [1][2] - The conference highlighted the need for a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to address external shocks and internal risks [4][5] - Key tasks for the upcoming year include enhancing domestic demand, fostering innovation, and ensuring high-quality development through coordinated efforts across various sectors [5][6] Group 2 - The "Five Musts" proposed during the conference serve as essential guidelines for economic work, focusing on maximizing economic potential and balancing policy support with reform [2][3] - Local leaders expressed commitment to implementing the conference's directives, aiming to build modern industrial systems and promote green development [3][6] - The emphasis on maintaining a strong domestic market and driving new growth engines aligns with the broader goals of sustainable and inclusive economic development [5][6]

专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 在中央经济工作会议的全文中，消费、地产和反内卷都有提到，其中消费和货币政策的表述是有点超预 期。大摩对此进行了点评，主要观点还是和他们之前的判断一致，政策方向还是托底式的。 Key takeways 目标数值维持不变：保持2026年GDP预测为实际增长4.8%，名义增长~4.1% 划重点，就是说，依然还是"减轻通货紧缩，而非再通胀。" CEWC会议释放的信号： 大摩的解读： 财政：与2025年持平的初始额度，但发行前置；年中仍有GDP~0.5个百分点的追加空间 货币政策：整体偏宽松但降息幅度有限（10‑20个基点）。 增长锚点：公共资本支出/城市更新、AI+/绿色转型。私人资本支出仍显疲软。 住房：已提出库存收购和房贷补贴（可能通过公积金改革实现）。具体范围、 规模及持续时间尚 不明确。 反内卷：更大力推动全国统一大市场、国企改革及更严格的补贴规定——执行难度大但方向正 确。 政策风格：侧重托底而非提振；强调延续性而非转向。 政策组合：仍以供给侧为核心，对需求侧给予小幅推动（"扩大内需 + 优化供给"）。 消费政策：消费品以旧换新持续推进；服务券及社会福利支持相关政 ...

专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 | 超长期特别国债 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 人工智能 + | | | | 地方财政 | | | | 预期管理 | 0 | | | 因同经贸斗争 | 0 | | | 资料来源: Wind,公开资料整理 | | | | 风险提示:数据股踪仅供参考,不构成投资建议; | | 联系人:覃汉/章恒豪 | | 公开资料整理的不完整性。 | | | 责任编辑：何俊熹 专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 | | "中央经济工作会议"关注要点梳理 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 维度 | 2024年 | 2025年 | | | 总体定位与形势判断 | | | 坚持稳中求进、以进促稳,守正创新、先立后破,系 | | 坚持稳中求进、提质增效,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 | | 工作员罪信 | 统集成、协同配合,充实完善政策工具箱,提高宏观 | 应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,提升宏观经济治理效能。 | | 调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性。 | | | | 外部压力加大、内部困难增多,国内需求不足,部分 | | 外部环境变化影响加 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the implementation of a more proactive macro policy to ensure stable economic operation, continuing with a more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [1][2] - The policy direction for next year focuses on maintaining stability while seeking progress, enhancing quality and efficiency, and increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to improve macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1] - The conference highlighted the importance of maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, indicating a commitment to a proactive fiscal policy that will further enhance the effectiveness of fiscal measures [1] Group 2 - In terms of monetary policy, the conference outlined that promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery will be key considerations, with flexible use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The arrangements reflect continuity and stability in macro policies, which are beneficial for stabilizing social expectations and boosting market confidence [2] - The focus on financial support for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to optimize funding allocation and enhance the internal driving force for high-quality development [2]

杨志勇表示，明年我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这和今年的财政政策取向一以贯之，财政在国 家治理中的基础和重要支柱作用将得到进一步发挥。"加强财政科学管理"等安排，将更充分地释放和提 升财政政策效能，更好护航经济运行、推动经济增长目标的实现。 在货币政策方面，会议也作出明确安排："把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量""灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具""引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业 等重点领域"…… "这些安排展现出宏观政策的连续性、稳定性，有利于稳定社会预期，提振市场信心。"在清华大学国家 金融研究院院长田轩看来，适度宽松的货币政策有助于保持社会融资条件相对宽松，也可以更大程度上 配合好更加积极的财政政策，增强宏观政策取向一致性和有效性。 做好明年经济工作，政策取向备受关注。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提 质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 "明年的政策取向释放出'更加积极有为'的鲜明信号。"中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇表示，宏观政策 加大调控力度，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，将更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 10 to 11 in Beijing outlined key tasks for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need for policy support and reform innovation to address current economic challenges [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The conference highlighted five essential approaches for economic work under the new circumstances, including fully tapping economic potential and ensuring a balance between policy support and reform innovation [3]. - Emphasis was placed on maintaining a stable yet progressive approach to economic governance, integrating existing and new policies for effective outcomes [4]. Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The conference called for increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness, alongside a more proactive fiscal policy [5]. - It was noted that maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while optimizing fiscal expenditure structures is crucial for addressing local fiscal difficulties [5]. - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5][6]. Group 3: Key Economic Tasks for 2026 - Eight key tasks for economic work in 2026 were identified, including: 1. Fostering a strong domestic market driven by internal demand [8]. 2. Accelerating innovation to cultivate new growth drivers [8]. 3. Enhancing quality development through reform efforts [8]. 4. Promoting multi-field cooperation and openness [8]. 5. Encouraging coordinated development for urban-rural integration and regional synergy [8]. 6. Leading with "dual carbon" initiatives for comprehensive green transformation [8]. 7. Prioritizing people's livelihoods by addressing practical issues for the public [8]. 8. Safeguarding against risks in key areas through proactive and prudent measures [8].

Core Viewpoint - China has entered an era dominated by stock economy, facing higher demands for optimizing existing resources and managing debt levels amid international economic challenges [1][2] Group 1: Economic Strategy and External Environment - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to strengthen internal capabilities to respond to external challenges, indicating increased confidence in managing international trade disputes [2] - The focus on "stability while seeking progress" remains a key principle, with an added emphasis on better coordinating domestic economic work and international trade struggles [2][3] - The relationship between major powers significantly influences international dynamics, which in turn affects domestic development, highlighting the need for strategic consideration in economic planning [3] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a primary strategy to counter external shocks, with initiatives to boost consumption and increase residents' income being prioritized [3] - The conference called for stabilizing investment and increasing the scale of central budget investments, aligning with major project launches in the early stages of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][5] - The focus on high-quality urban renewal projects aims to mitigate the downward pressure on real estate investment [3] Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The economic work for the coming year will maintain a stable and continuous macroeconomic policy, with a slight increase in the fiscal deficit rate expected to rise from around 4% to 4.2-4.5% [5] - Fiscal policies will prioritize optimizing project implementation and increasing public service spending, while monetary policy will remain flexible, with potential adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates [6][7] - The conference introduced a new requirement for monetary policy to consider reasonable price recovery as a key objective [6] Group 4: Innovation and Structural Reform - The emphasis on innovation-driven growth highlights the urgency of nurturing new economic drivers, with specific actions planned for key industrial chains and technology innovation centers [8][9] - The need to combat "involution" is recognized as part of the broader goal of building a unified national market, with a focus on developing new productive forces [9] Group 5: Real Estate and Financial Stability - The conference reiterated the importance of stabilizing the real estate market through targeted measures, including inventory reduction and improving supply [10] - Strategies to address local government debt risks were outlined, emphasizing proactive debt management and the establishment of a sound local tax system [11]

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话，总结2025年 经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作；李强总理作总结讲话，对贯彻落实习近平总书记 重要讲话精神、做好明年经济工作提出要求。本次会议同时也为期货行业高质量谋划明年工作，实 现"十五五"开好局、起好步指明方向，明确目标，部署任务。 三是坚持守牢底线，夯实发展根基。会议强调，"坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险"。期货市 场是管理风险的重要场所，更须牢牢把握守牢底线、化解风险这条生命线。广发期货将持续树牢"合规 创造价值"理念，把合规文化融入日常经营和决策之中，持续提高全员合规意识，履行好适当性管理义 务，加强投资者权益保护。同时，广发期货将加强全面风险管理体系建设，完善常态化压力测试机制， 紧扣"四早"要求持续加强风险识别和监测能力，不断提高公司风险应对和处置的能力，护航公司长期稳 健发展。 新征程承载新梦想，新使命呼唤新作为。广发期货将始终坚持以高质量发展为主线，乘势而上，提质增 效，为实现"十五五"良好开局提供高质量期货服务！ 一是提高政治站位，强化战略引领。会议强调，"要按照党的二十届四中 ...

本报记者 周尚伃 "会议对经济形势作出了辩证分析和科学判断。"陈雳表示，一方面，明确指出我国经济发展面临的外部环境复杂性、严峻 性、不确定性上升，国内有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱等风险挑战依然存在。另一方面，会议强调我国经 济长期向好的基本面没有改变，支撑高质量发展的要素条件不断聚集，要增强信心和底气。 当前，以创新驱动培育新动能、推动产业升级，是开启高质量发展新征程的"核心引擎"。在明年经济工作抓好的重点任务 方面，会议明确，坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议（以下简称"会议"）在北京举行，全面总结2025年经济工作，深刻分析当前经济形 势，并部署2026年经济工作。 "本次会议是在我国发展面临新的战略机遇与风险挑战、推进中国式现代化进入关键时期召开的一次重要会议。"川财证券 总裁助理、首席经济学家、研究所所长陈雳在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，会议充分肯定了2025年经济工作取得的成 绩，指出我国经济顶压前行、向新向优，主要发展目标将顺利完成，"十四五"规划即将圆满收官。会议科学研判了当前及今后 一个时期的经济形势，明确提出了2026年经济工作的总 ...

中央经济工作会议确立了2026年"稳中求进、提质增效"的经济工作总基调，为宏观经济稳增长、优结 构、防风险提供了根本遵循，也赋予期货及衍生品市场更为深远的时代使命。作为行业的参与者，我们 深知期货市场必须成为服务国家战略、稳定实体经济的重要金融力量，在推动高质量发展中展现专业担 当。 会议明确，明年经济工作要抓好"促进城乡融合和区域联动"等重点任务。我们积极探索"一地一策"的特 色服务模式。在铜仁，聚焦当地鸡蛋产业，打造"期货认知-工具应用-实战赋能"全周期服务体系，推动 企业建立现代风险管理思维，助力特色产业协同发展，精准服务乡村振兴。在常州，围绕新能源等重点 产业链，以本地交割库为支点，与核心企业协同打造"期货+物流+供应链金融"综合服务方案，通过覆 盖采购、生产、库存的全周期风险管理，切实赋能地方新质生产力培育。东海期货始终致力于成为区域 产业发展的"共建者"与"赋能者"。 三、强化风控，筑牢行业安全底线 会议明确，明年经济工作要"坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险"。东海期货始终将风险防控作 为生命线，秉承"合规先行、风控前置"原则，构建了以合规风控为基石、数据智能为引擎的一体化风控 体系。通过智 ...