国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：估值区间内弱势运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：估值区间内弱势运行 供应 • 周期内浙江石化延续停车检修，振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，产能利用率进一步提升。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.92万吨，较上周提升0.11万 吨，环比+3.88%，产能利用率72.53%，环比提升2.72个百分点。周期内浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启。下周期预计茂 名石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修。（隆众资讯） • 刚需方面，本周轮胎样本企业产能利用率走低，全钢胎及半钢胎部分样本企业周期内存检修现象，拖拽样本企业产能利用率下行，检修主因为整体订 单不足、出货放缓，另有样本企业设备改造，影响整体产能释放。预计下周期，随着检修企业装置排产逐步恢复，轮胎样本企业产能利用率将呈现恢 复性提升状态。然整体需求提升空间有限， ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：震荡承压 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：震荡承压 | 供应 | • | 周期内浙江石化、振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置延续停车检修，扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，产能利用率恢复性提升。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.80 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 万吨，较上周提升0.16万吨，环比+5.92%，产能利用率69.92%，环比提升3.90个百分点。下周期预计振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启，同时11月末茂名顺 | | | | 丁装置及浙江传化12万吨/年稀土顺丁橡胶装置检修计划检修，短时部分现货偏紧局面预计有所缓解。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 刚需方面，周期内轮胎样本企业产能利用率涨跌互现。周期内半钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率基本平稳，全钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率走低。周期内多 | | 需求 | | 数 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年11月09日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期震荡，基本面仍有压力 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期震荡，基本面仍有压力 供应 需求 • 周期内扬子石化、浙江石化、振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，四川石化顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，产能利用率进一步下降。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产 量在2.65万吨，较上周下降0.04万吨，环比-1.31%，产能利用率66.02%，环比下降0.88个百分点。下周期预计扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置重启，且11月末茂名 顺丁装置及浙江传化12万吨/年稀土顺丁橡胶装置检修计划检修，短时部分现货偏紧局面预计延续。（隆众资讯） 策略 • 单边：中期逢高空思路，不追空；日内或呈现资金博弈的宽幅震荡；上方压力10300-10400元/吨（跟随顺丁现货走势为主），下方支撑9500-9600元/吨 （NR-BR价差及丁二烯）； • 跨品种：nr-br价差估 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0021541 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to operate within the fundamental valuation range. The fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber face pressure, mainly from high supply, with supply growth exceeding demand growth, increasing inventory pressure in the industry chain. However, the valuation is moderately low, and with many important macro - events, the price is expected to fluctuate. [2][4] - The fundamentals of butadiene are gradually under increasing pressure, with high - supply pressure expected to persist in the medium - term, leading to a weak trend. [5] Summary by Directory This Week's Cis - Butadiene Rubber Viewpoints Supply - This week, the impact of maintenance at Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plants became apparent, and the load of some private plants decreased slightly. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from last week, a 1.84% MoM decline, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.45%, a 1.37 - percentage - point MoM decrease. Next week, Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to shut down for maintenance, and the specific implementation time of Sichuan Petrochemical is to be determined. There are also maintenance expectations for Zhenhua New Materials, Maoming's cis - butadiene rubber plant, and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth cis - butadiene rubber plant from November to December, so the short - term supply of some spot resources is expected to remain tight. [4] Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly this week. Snowfall in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia was earlier than usual, leading to concentrated demand for winter tires. Semi - steel tire enterprises actively arranged production, driving up the capacity utilization rate. The production of all - steel tire enterprises returned to normal levels this week, also driving up the overall capacity utilization rate. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly. Semi - steel tire enterprises will maintain stable production, and all - steel tire enterprises will keep production stable overall. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, so the overall demand for cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. [4] Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous period, a 1.25% MoM increase. This week, the spot market was driven by the expectation of a cooling of trade frictions and the strengthening of natural rubber. While the mainstream supply price rebounded, low - price transactions improved. However, due to more maintenance of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants recently, some sample production enterprises stocked up, resulting in a continuous increase in the inventory level of sample production enterprises and a decrease in the inventory of sample trading enterprises. [4] Valuation - Currently, the static fundamental valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,400 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to gradually decline due to the increase in butadiene arrivals. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton on the futures market. When the main BR2512 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the Shandong market price, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for holding spot and shorting futures, which will increase the pressure on the upper - limit space of the futures market. The lower valuation limit is expected to be supported by butadiene from the cost side, with the theoretical lower - limit valuation range of the futures market at 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton. The overall static valuation of cis - butadiene rubber is currently moderately low. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Implement a range strategy based on the static fundamental valuation. The upper pressure is at 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton (mainly following the trend of cis - butadiene rubber spot), and the lower support is at 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton (the cost of cis - butadiene rubber anchored by butadiene). - Cross - variety: The spread between NR - BR is at a high valuation, but due to insufficient driving forces, it is expected to fluctuate. [4] This Week's Butadiene Viewpoints Supply - This week (October 17 - 23, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 101,900 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous period, a 0.25% MoM decrease. Next week, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises is about 106,000 tons, an increase from this week. Although Sichuan Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance on the 25th, the output of enterprises in the Northeast and Shandong will gradually return to normal, increasing the overall output. [5] Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, maintaining a high year - on - year demand for butadiene. With the resumption of cis - butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, maintaining rigid demand for butadiene with little change. [5] Inventory - This week (October 16 - 22, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased, a 9.29% MoM decrease. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 1.83% MoM. There were plant changes during the period, and some downstream plants in East China shut down for maintenance, causing slight fluctuations in butadiene inventory. The inventory at sample ports decreased significantly by 20.13% MoM. The arrival of ships was limited this week, and the tradable volume was low, resulting in a phased reduction in inventory. However, merchants expect sufficient imports in October, so inventory changes need to be closely monitored. [5] Viewpoint - In the short - term, both supply and demand are increasing, and the inventory is neutral, so butadiene is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, the supply pressure of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure, leading to a weak trend. [5] Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end. [8] - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the expansion speed and amplitude slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. [10] - The operating rate, production capacity changes, and import - export volume of butadiene are presented through historical data charts and tables, showing the development trend of the butadiene market. [14][16] Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output: The weekly output of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is presented through historical data charts, reflecting the output changes in recent years. [40] - Cost and Profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber in China are presented through historical data charts, showing the cost - profit situation. [42][43][44] - Import and Export: The monthly import and export volumes of cis - butadiene rubber are presented through historical data charts, reflecting the import - export trends. [45][46] - Inventory: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber are presented through historical data charts, showing the inventory situation. [49][50][51] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - Tire: The inventory and operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province are presented through historical data charts, reflecting the demand for cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry. [53][54]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期震荡运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期震荡运行 • 本周期山东益华、山东威特顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，齐鲁石化、扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，周内高顺顺丁橡胶产量及产能利用率总体窄幅变动， 但民营资源供应增量明显。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在3.00万吨，较上周增加0.01万吨，环比增加0.18%，产能利用率74.82%，环比提升0.13个百分点。 下周期暂无新装置重启及停车，但进入10月末后集中检修明显增多，特别是中石化系统齐鲁、扬子、茂名顺丁装置接续检修，短时中石化部分现货流通 资源预计趋紧。 （隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率小幅波动为主，目前"双节"假期检修企业排产多已恢复至常规水平，整体市场表现未见明显转好， 为控制库存增加，部分企业仍处灵活控产状态。预计短期企业装置 ...

国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：弱势运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 本周合成橡胶观点：弱势运行 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 库存 估值 观点 供应 • 2025年10月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量：13.13万吨左右，较9月份预期略增长0.09万吨。预计未来一月共5套装置计划检修，涉及年加工能力42万吨/年。4 季度后顺丁橡胶行业检修相对集中，尤其中石化方面企业普遍在10月初后进入检修流程。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，10月轮胎企业整体订单表现环比弱化。欧盟反倾销因素制约，目前部分欧盟市场为主企业订单环比上月缩减明显，加之连续降雨，居民出行 及运输均受到较大影响，整体需求表现偏弱，部分企业在国庆中秋"双节"期间存5-8天检修计划，期间整体出货表现不及预期，成品库存去库缓慢， 加之市场涨跌局面较为混乱，更 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to operate weakly in the short term. The butadiene market will experience short - term fluctuations and is likely to enter a weak pattern in the medium to long term due to supply pressure [2][4][5]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, the short - term trend is oscillatory and under pressure, with a neutral downward drive. However, from a valuation perspective, the decline rate is expected to slow down. The market presents a pattern of both increasing supply and demand, but the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate, leading to increased inventory pressure [4]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Butadiene Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1 Supply - In the current cycle (20250919 - 0925), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 103,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,100 tons or 2.03%. Next week, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 105,900 tons, continuing to increase [5]. - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene production capacity is continuously expanding, with the expansion speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, maintaining a year - on - year high demand for butadiene. With the resumption of cis - butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to increase [5]. - In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level with little change [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (20250918 - 0924), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples has rebounded, with a week - on - week increase of 6.72%. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 3.44% week - on - week, while the inventory of sample ports increased significantly by 20.13% week - on - week. As of September 24, the latest inventory at East China ports was about 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons from the previous cycle [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - In the current cycle, the production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons or 4.75% from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from the previous week. It is expected that the cis - butadiene rubber plants of Haopu New Materials and Taixiang Yubu will resume operation in the next cycle [4]. - The theoretical static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,900 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation range is expected to gradually decline due to the increase in butadiene arrivals [4]. 3.2.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - In terms of rigid demand, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will significantly decline in the next cycle. During the "National Day" holiday, some enterprises plan to take a 5 - 8 - day holiday starting from September 30 or October 1, which will have a significant impact on the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises next week [4]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between the NR - BR main contracts currently remains in the range of 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand for cis - butadiene rubber maintains a year - on - year high growth rate [4]. 3.2.3 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons or 4.21% from the previous cycle. The inventory of sample production enterprises slightly increased, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and macro - sentiment of synthetic rubber are in intensified contradiction, and it will operate in a volatile manner. The supply pressure of butadiene is the main contradiction in the medium - to - long term, and its fundamentals are still under significant pressure [2][4][6]. - For synthetic rubber, the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate under the pattern of both supply and demand increase, and the inventory pressure of butadiene rubber has increased. However, due to the expected preventive interest rate cut by the Fed and the "anti - involution" policy, the market has certain support, and the price will fluctuate within the fundamental valuation range [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: Shandong Weite, Taixiang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' butadiene rubber plants stopped for maintenance this week. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52%, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of September 10, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 8.15% week - on - week [4]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of sample tire production enterprises increased significantly this week and is expected to remain stable next week. The substitution demand remains high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4][5]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high levels within the fundamental static valuation range without chasing short positions, and also refer to macro - sentiment. The upper pressure is 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. For cross - variety trading, the nr - br spread will fluctuate in the short term [4][5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: In the current cycle (20250905 - 0911), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 103,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%. Next week, it is expected to be about 102,500 tons, still showing a downward trend [6]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. The demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and the demand from SBS remains stable [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased slightly this week, with the sample enterprise inventory down 0.81% week - on - week and the sample port inventory down 17.29% week - on - week. However, there are still expectations of ship arrivals, so inventory changes need to be closely monitored [8]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [13]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate of butadiene has fluctuated, and many plants have experienced maintenance or shutdowns [17][18]. - **Net Imports**: The net imports of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations, and the import profit is also affected by market prices [20]. - **Demand - side - Capacity and Operation of Downstream Products**: The capacities of downstream products such as butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS are expanding, and their operating rates and production plans vary [22][23][29][33]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply of Butadiene Rubber**: The output of butadiene rubber has fluctuated, and many plants have normal operations, maintenance plans, or shutdowns. The cost, profit, and inventory of butadiene rubber have also shown corresponding changes [43][44][45]. - **Demand of Butadiene Rubber - Tire**: The inventory and operating rates of domestic tires (including all - steel tires and semi - steel tires) in Shandong Province have shown certain trends, and the demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry is affected by these factors [57][58].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The synthetic rubber is approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation, and the upside space is narrowing [2][4]. - The port tightness pattern of butadiene has been alleviated, and it is expected to pull back in the short - term and enter a weak pattern in the medium - to - long term. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the upper pressure of synthetic rubber is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The nr - br spread fluctuates in the short - term [5]. - **Inventory**: This week, the output and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber continued to decline. The output was 27,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.29 percentage points. It is expected to increase in the next cycle. The overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. As of August 13, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.18% [6]. - **Valuation**: The static fundamental valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to decline slightly. The upper valuation limit is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased. This period's output was 105,300 tons, a 2.73% increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 69.69%, a 0.07% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Demand**: Synthetic rubber has a high demand for butadiene, and the demand for ABS is constant with limited increments. The demand for SBS maintains rigid procurement with little change [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 11.70% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory increased by 38.78% week - on - week. As of August 13, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from the previous period [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than that of downstream industries. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [14][16]. - **Supply - side -开工率**: The butadiene weekly operating rate shows fluctuations, and many enterprises have experienced shutdowns and restarts [18][19]. - **Demand - side**: The production capacity of downstream industries such as butadiene - based cis - and styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS is expanding [22][31]. - **Inventory - side**: The butadiene weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory show different trends over time [34][35][36]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply - side**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows fluctuations. Many enterprises' devices are in different operating states, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and restart [40][41]. - **Cost and profit**: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [43][44][45]. - **Import and export**: The monthly import and export volume of butadiene rubber shows fluctuations [46][47]. - **Inventory**: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [51][52][53]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry shows different trends in inventory and operating rate [55][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are supportive, and it operates within the valuation range. The short - term market is slightly bullish, while the medium - term remains within the fundamental valuation range [2][4]. - The price of butadiene is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - The output of high - cis butadiene rubber this week was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a 5.93% month - on - month decrease, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.17%, a 4.29 - percentage - point month - on - month decline. Some plants such as Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical carried out short - term maintenance. Next week, the plants of Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda are expected to restart, and the output is expected to increase [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires slightly decreased, while that of all - steel tires slightly increased. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will vary. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires may continue to decline slightly, while that of all - steel tires is expected to increase. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 700 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 6, 2025 (Week 32), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.38% month - on - month increase. Although some production plants carried out short - term maintenance this week, the downstream was waiting for price drops, and the price of arbitrage resources was relatively low, resulting in slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [4]. 3.1.4 Valuation and Viewpoint - In the short term, it is slightly bullish, and in the medium term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to rise slightly. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 11,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish with upper pressure at 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: No relevant strategy. - Inter - variety: The price difference between NR - BR is expected to narrow in the short term [4]. 3.2 Butadiene Weekly Viewpoint 3.2.1 Supply - Some enterprises carried out plant maintenance this week, and the domestic butadiene supply decreased. The output was 102,500 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.87% decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%, a 0.21% month - on - month decline [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remained high, and the demand for butadiene maintained a high year - on - year level. With the resumption of butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained stable [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 8.71% compared to last week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly by 1.50%, while the inventory of sample ports increased by 41.35% due to the arrival of imported vessels. As of August 6, the inventory at East China ports was about 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons compared to the previous period [5]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - The price is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. The overall arrival volume of butadiene is expected to be low, and the port price may remain resilient. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. - To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries [10]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals 3.4.1 Supply of Butadiene Rubber - Output: The output and operating rate data of butadiene rubber are presented, and the operating status and future plans of various enterprises' plants are detailed [34][35]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin data of butadiene rubber are provided [37][38][39]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export volume data of butadiene rubber are presented [41][42]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory data of butadiene rubber enterprises, traders, and futures are provided [46][48]. 3.4.2 Demand of Butadiene Rubber - Tire: The inventory and operating rate data of semi - steel and all - steel tires in Shandong Province are presented [50][51].