如今一提到，很多人脱口而出的就是"卖不动啦"。不管是北上广深那些老旧的小户型，还是三四线城市新建的高层住宅，挂牌数月无人问津早已成了 常态。曾经"一房难求"的火爆场景一去不复返，现在是"求着卖都没人要"。但说实话，房子卖不掉带来的苦恼，和接下来要说的这4件事比起来，真 算不上什么。 房子空置，有房却无"家"之感 不少家庭手里握着不止一套房，两三套的也大有人在。可这些房子，很多并非出于自住需求。有的是早年跟风投资买的，想着能赚一笔；有的是为孩 子将来结婚提前准备的；还有的纯粹是看价格便宜，顺手就买下了。然而，真正用于居住的往往只有一套，其余的都空着。这些空置房，要么得持续 交物业费，要么在岁月中慢慢老化。 我有一位朋友，在郊区新城买了套二套房。当初买的时候，满心期待周边配套会越来越完善，地铁也会延伸过来。可这一等就是六年，周边连个像样 的商场和超市都没有。房子冬天冷得像冰窖，夏天又潮湿得没法住。朋友原本打算把房子租出去，在网上挂了三个月，来看房的人倒是不少，可没有 一个愿意租。空着吧，心疼那不断投入的成本；卖掉吧，价格被压得极低，让人心凉。最折磨人的不是房子本身，而是明明知道它很难升值，还得继 续"养着"，想处 ...

2025年，在"好房子"国家战略引导下，重点城市密集出台"好房子"新规，如放宽阳台/飘窗面积、鼓励空中花园/复式挑空、优化公共空间计容等。 这些新规显著提升了住宅产品的实得率、空间尺度和舒适度。不仅激活了刚需、改善、高端客群的分层需求，更推动产品力向"空间功能精细化、场景体 验品质化、社区运营生态化"三大方向加速进化。 从2025年1-6月重点城市热销项目来看，产品力较强的四代宅和新规项目起到了很好的"托举"作用。在当前楼市延续止跌企稳的弱复苏走势的同时，"好房 子"成交领涨。 中央明确建设"好房子" "好房子"可以说是贯彻2025年的关键词。 2025年3月两会定调全年方向，"稳住楼市股市"首次写入总体要求，明确"建设好房子"作为产业转型方向并迅速落实。 3月5日，政府工作报告明确房地产工作路径，加快构建"好房子"标准体系，推动行业向高质量发展转型。 3月31日，《住宅项目规范》正式发布，层高要求从2.8米提升至3米；对于设电梯的要求，从原先7层及以上优化为4层及以上；隔声要求从不大于75分贝 降低至65分贝；并新增了新增适老化、绿色环保要求等。这一规范的落地，不仅为住宅建设树立了更高标准，更标志着住宅产品 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Beijing office market remained relatively stable in Q2 2025, with technology companies leading in leasing activities, enhancing market liquidity and boosting confidence in the commercial real estate sector [1] - Domestic buyers continue to show strong interest in retail and office assets in Beijing, driven by the value gap effect of quality assets in core business districts and the ongoing release of self-use demand from enterprises, which is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure in the long term [1] - The high-end residential market saw significant growth in both supply and sales volume in the first half of the year, with approximately 3,300 new luxury apartments supplied in Q2, surpassing the total supply for the entire year of 2024, and Q2 sales reached about 2,100 units, marking the highest quarterly sales in the past two years [1] Group 2 - The monetary policy, including interest rate cuts in May, has created a relatively loose credit environment for the residential market, with expectations of a significant increase in new home transaction volumes compared to the previous year due to favorable market conditions and price advantages for buyers [2]

Group 1: Retail Market Performance - In Q2, Shanghai's retail market showed improved leasing demand with a net absorption of 156,000 square meters, driven by "consumption promotion" policies and emerging consumption trends [1] - Major brands, including luxury and sports brands, are increasingly interested in opening flagship and concept stores in core business districts, with Louis Vuitton recently launching a new landmark in Shanghai [1] - The vacancy rate in core business districts decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.6%, while the vacancy rate in non-core areas slightly increased by 0.3 percentage points to 14.1% due to ongoing market competition [1] Group 2: Rental Trends - Rental prices in Shanghai's retail properties continued to decline, with core district first-floor average rent decreasing by 1.1% to CNY 43.1 per square meter per day, and non-core area rent down by 1.8% to CNY 15 per square meter per day [2] - Landlords are offering rental discounts and attractive leasing terms to attract brands amid competitive market pressures [2] - Despite challenges, demand for leasing in sectors like sports apparel, trendy toys, and affordable dining is expected to grow due to consumer focus on health and entertainment [2] Group 3: Residential Market Insights - In Q2, Shanghai's overall new residential sales volume increased by 14.0% to 1.7 million square meters, with high-end residential sales showing a decline of 21.2% [2] - The pace of new residential project launches accelerated, with 1.67 million square meters of new supply introduced, a 114.5% increase from the previous quarter [2] - The average price of new high-end residential properties rose by 0.6% to CNY 147,900 per square meter, while the average price of second-hand high-end residential properties fell by 2.0% to CNY 132,800 per square meter [3]

Core Insights - The report by JLL indicates significant growth in both supply and transaction volume in Beijing's high-end residential market during Q2, driven by a favorable credit policy [1] - The luxury apartment market in Beijing saw new supply reach approximately 3,300 units in Q2, surpassing the total supply for the entire year of 2024, leading to a substantial increase in transaction volume [1] - The report highlights a trend of "increased volume and decreased prices" in the luxury apartment market, providing buyers with more options [1] Residential Market Summary - In Q2, approximately 2,100 luxury apartments were sold, marking the highest quarterly sales in the past two years, with new projects accounting for about 75% of the sales in the first half of the year [1] - The average price of comparable new luxury apartments in Beijing decreased by 2.3% quarter-on-quarter, while the secondary market is experiencing a trend of "price for volume" due to the influx of new supply [1] Credit Policy and Market Outlook - The monetary policy of continuous rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in May has created a very loose credit environment for the residential market [1] - The company anticipates that the overall transaction volume in the new housing market will significantly increase compared to last year, supported by current market supply-demand dynamics and price advantages [1] Commercial Real Estate Summary - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A office buildings in Beijing decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 12.0% in Q2, primarily due to large leasing transactions in Zhongguancun and Lize [1] - The company expects overall rental prices to continue to decline throughout the year, which may attract tenants to relocate to higher-quality office spaces at reasonable costs [1] - Increased competition among landlords for relocating tenants is anticipated due to more flexible lease terms [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nuveen anticipates that the second half of 2025 will face dual pressures of economic slowdown and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess asset allocation strategies focusing on robust fundamentals, defensive characteristics, and spread advantages to enhance return potential and mitigate risks [1][2] Global Economic Outlook - The global investment committee of Nuveen expects potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, but inflation driven by tariffs may lead to a pause in easing [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause after previous rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates once [1] Asset Allocation Strategy - Nuveen recommends focusing on assets driven by spreads and reducing reliance on risk-free rates, with municipal bonds attracting long-term investors due to a steep yield curve [1] - The real estate market is gradually recovering after two years of stagnation, with strong demand observed in medical office spaces, grocery retail properties, and affordable housing [1] Stock Market Insights - Large U.S. tech companies are benefiting from the expansion of AI, increased demand for data centers, and power generation, leading to an upgrade in market positioning [1] - Defensive sectors such as finance and infrastructure are highlighted, while European equities present long-term value; emerging markets are becoming less attractive due to trade policy impacts [1] Investment Strategies - Nuveen advises investors to adopt a broadly diversified and actively managed strategy to navigate policy changes and economic slowdowns [2] - Preferred loans and securities are favored for their attractive valuations and solid credit quality, while investment-grade corporate bonds are viewed less favorably due to narrowing spreads [2] Real Estate Sector Focus - Nuveen continues to explore opportunities arising from demographic and educational diversity, with a positive outlook on medical, industrial, and residential sectors [2] - The office market faces challenges, with vacancy rates expected to improve but recovery still requiring time; real estate bonds currently offer valuation advantages over real estate stocks [2] Infrastructure Investment Preferences - Nuveen prefers public-private projects, particularly in electricity, utilities, and energy storage investments [2] - Agricultural land assets are seen as an inflation hedge, although returns are expected to slow in 2025, especially for grain crops affected by tariff pressures [2]

Core Insights - Lennar Corporation has seen a year-to-date decline of 13%, underperforming the S&P 500's 6% increase, raising questions about its valuation despite low trading multiples [2] - The company reported mixed Q2 2025 results, with revenue of approximately $8.4 billion exceeding estimates, but net income fell nearly 50% year-over-year to $477 million due to shrinking gross margins [4][5] - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio stands at a high of 107.9, indicating weak cash conversion and raising concerns about the sustainability of its valuation [3] Financial Performance - Revenue grew at an average annual rate of 5.9% over the past three years but declined by 1.1% in the last 12 months, with a 4.4% year-over-year drop in the latest quarter [5] - Gross margins shrank to 17.8% due to aggressive discounting and mortgage incentives, while the average selling price decreased by 9% to $389,000 [4] - Operating income of $4.1 billion corresponds to a modest 11.5% margin, and net income of $3.3 billion shows a margin of 9.2%, both below the S&P 500 averages [5] Market Vulnerability - Historically, Lennar has lagged the broader market during downturns, with significant declines during crises, including a 44.8% drop during the 2022 inflation shock [7] - The stock fell by 93.5% during the 2008 financial crisis, indicating its vulnerability in volatile market conditions [7] - Despite eventual recoveries, Lennar has consistently underperformed in the early phases of recovery compared to the S&P 500 [7]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market Performance - On July 10, the main silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8887 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.13% [1] - The opening price for the day was 8880 yuan per gram, with a maximum of 8911 yuan per gram and a minimum of 8856 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Macro News - President Trump announced that the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, which will impact industries reliant on this metal, including automotive, housing, and appliances [2] - Copper is the third most consumed metal globally, with nearly half of U.S. consumption coming from imports, primarily from Chile [2] - This tariff is part of a series of tariffs aimed at promoting domestic mining and metal processing, following previous increases in steel and aluminum tariffs [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Guoxin Futures noted that precious metals are experiencing mixed fluctuations, with New York gold futures rising by 0.1% to $3321 per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures increased by 0.19% to 771.02 yuan per gram [3] - New York silver futures fell by 11.9 cents to $36.63 per ounce, and Shanghai silver dropped by 0.33% to 8870 yuan per kilogram [3] - The outlook for precious metals suggests continued fluctuations, with key support levels for gold at around $3300 per ounce and silver at $36.5 per ounce, influenced by deepening trade tensions and geopolitical disturbances [3]

圣农发展：上半年净利润预增732.89%–830.88% 7月9日，圣农发展（002299）发布2025年半年度业绩预告，公司预计上半年实现归属于上市公司股东的 净利润8.5亿元至9.5亿元，同比增长732.89%至830.88%。 资料显示，圣农发展成立于1999年12月，主营业务是白羽肉鸡生产及肉类食品深加工。 所属行业：农林牧渔–养殖业–肉鸡养殖 四方新材：董事、高管合计减持8万股公司股票 7月9日，四方新材（605122）发布公告称，经核实，2025年7月7日和7月8日，公司董事、高级管理人员 谢涛、江洪波通过集中竞价方式合计减持8万股，该减持行为符合已公告的减持计划。除前述情形外， 公司控股股东、实际控制人及其一致行动人，以及其他董事、监事、高级管理人员在公司本次股票交易 异常波动期间不存在买卖公司股票的情形。 资料显示，盟升电子成立于1999年10月，主营业务是含氟医药、农药、新能源材料、含氟芳香类中间体 的研发、生产。 所属行业：基础化工–化学制品–氟化工 永太科技："一种双氟磺酰亚胺锂的制备方法"专利尚在有效期内 7月9日，永太科技（002326）发布公告称，对近期网络上关于公司一项名为"一种 ...

住宅产品的升级方向将不再局限于单纯追求更多的赠送面积，而是转向生活场景的优化、科技赋能的深化以及服 务配套的完善等多维度的综合价值竞争 ◎ 文 / 朱一鸣、王映雪、李玥瑶、贡显扬 研究视点 近年来，中国房地产市场供需关系发生了重大变化，居民住房需求从"有没有"转向"好不好"。在此背景下，国家提出了"好 房子"的理念，旨在通过政策引导和标准规范，满足人民群众对高品质居住的需求。2025年《政府工作报告》首次将"好房 子"写入其中，并明确提出要"适应人民群众高品质居住需要，完善标准规范，推动建设安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的'好房 子'"。随后，住建部发布了《住宅项目规范》，并于2025年5月1日正式施行，标志着"好房子"从政策倡导转变为具有强制约 束力的国家标准。 与此同时，全国多省市自2023年末以来相继出台文件，针对新建住宅的建筑设计规范进行优化调整，支持高品质住宅开发 建设。这些调整主要通过优化计容标准来提升项目的实得面积和产品品质。 在这些政策的推动下，各重点城市的住宅品质得到了快速提升。新规通过放宽阳台、飘窗的面积及进深限制，鼓励设置空 中花园和复式挑空，优化公共空间的计容标准等方式，显著提升了住宅产品的空 ...