01 北美裁员，中国区震荡 为应对激烈的市场竞争，星巴克力挽狂澜，但却多次陷入"波澜不惊"甚至"适得其反"的尴尬境地。 继今年2月裁员1100人后，上任星巴克CEO已满一年的倪睿安（Brian Niccol），近期又开启了第二次裁员。 9月25日，星巴克宣布启动一项高达10亿美元的战略重组计划：关闭北美及欧洲数百家门店，裁员约900人。消息公布当日，星巴克股价一度下跌1%。据 美联社报道，星巴克关闭门店的决定立即生效。截至9月底本财年结束，星巴克北美门店的数量将减至18300家，而今年6月底这一数字是18743。 倪睿安在公开信中坦言，部分门店 "无法达到顾客和伙伴期待的环境标准或缺乏盈利潜力"，将面临关闭。据悉，北美地区是星巴克全球最大的市场，但 其销售额已经连续6个季度同比下滑。截至今年6月29日，在2025财年第三季度，星巴克北美地区销售额同比下降2%。 几乎是同一时间，据路透社报道，星巴克CTO Deb Hall Lefevre已宣布辞职，并同时任命Ningyu Chen为临时CTO。2022年，Lefevre由当时回归的星巴克 CEO霍华德·舒尔茨亲自招募，也是推出线上点单、drive-throug ...

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks is facing controversy in China due to reports of employees being pressured to purchase mooncakes to meet sales targets, leading to concerns about consumer rights and employee treatment [1][5][9]. Group 1: Employee Sales Pressure - Employees claim they are required to meet sales targets of 25 mooncakes for full-time staff and 15 for part-time staff, with unsold items needing to be purchased out of pocket [4][6]. - Some employees have reported spending significant amounts, with one claiming to have "fronted" 15 boxes costing over 3000 yuan [4][5]. - The pressure to sell mooncakes appears to vary by store manager, with some employees stating their managers do not enforce sales targets [4][6]. Group 2: Company Response - Starbucks China has stated that it does not allow employees to purchase mooncakes to meet sales targets and is investigating the claims made by employees [1][5]. - The company encourages customers to buy mooncakes through official channels to protect their consumer rights [5]. Group 3: Market Context - Starbucks has been selling mooncakes in China since 2005 as part of its localization strategy, using them for brand marketing [6]. - Recent financial reports indicate a slight recovery in same-store sales in China, with a 2% year-over-year increase, although average transaction value has decreased by 4% [8]. - Despite some recovery, Starbucks continues to face challenges in the Chinese market, leading to speculation about potential divestment of its Chinese operations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative power of supply chains in reshaping consumer habits and market dynamics, particularly in the beverage industry, as exemplified by the success of Norwegian salmon and the current strategies of companies like Luckin Coffee [1][3][36]. Group 1: Beverage Industry Trends - The current beverage market is experiencing a shift where supply chain capabilities are becoming the primary driver of consumer experience rather than consumer demand itself [3]. - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to reach a scale of 627.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 23% over the past five years [4]. - The competition in the beverage industry has intensified, leading to price wars and a decline in average transaction prices among leading brands [6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Strategies - Companies are increasingly focusing on upstream supply chain battles, particularly in sourcing high-quality raw materials from tea gardens, fruit orchards, and coffee plantations [4]. - Luckin Coffee has established a "Origin Cluster" strategy, securing high-quality raw materials from various regions globally, which enhances its supply chain stability and product quality [8][19]. - The establishment of a robust supply chain allows companies to achieve cost advantages and maintain consistent product quality, which is crucial in a highly competitive market [6][21]. Group 3: Luckin Coffee's Competitive Edge - Luckin Coffee's "Origin Festival" campaign highlights its commitment to quality by promoting products sourced from specific regions, thereby enhancing brand recognition and market competitiveness [14][15]. - The company's extensive procurement agreements, such as a five-year contract for 240,000 tons of coffee from Brazil, demonstrate its proactive approach to securing raw materials [19][21]. - Luckin Coffee's ability to define industry standards, such as the first "light milk tea" standard, positions it as a leader in the market, shifting from a mere purchaser to a standard setter [22][27]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The beverage industry is witnessing a rapid cycle of product innovation, but many brands struggle to create lasting differentiation, leading to a "new product - imitation - internal competition" cycle [32]. - The true competitive advantage lies in controlling upstream resources and establishing a sustainable supply chain, which is essential for long-term success in the beverage market [35][36]. - Luckin Coffee's strategic focus on global sourcing and supply chain integration is setting a new standard for the industry, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape of the ready-to-drink beverage sector [36][38].

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee has launched the "Drink Original Origin Festival," introducing a product matrix focused on original origin ingredients, including new offerings like Aksu Apple Latte and popular drinks such as Coconut Latte and Yirgacheffe Americano [1] - The brand slogan "Drink Original Origin" reflects Luckin's strategy to strengthen its upstream supply chain for core products, establishing a global network of original origin sources [1] Group 1 - Luckin Coffee has developed original origin clusters in Brazil and Ethiopia for coffee, Indonesia for coconuts, and Guangxi for jasmine flowers, securing high-quality raw materials like Arabica coffee beans and coconuts [1][2] - The company initiated a "Global Bean Sourcing Program" in 2023 to ensure the quality of coffee beans by visiting key coffee-producing regions, including Panama, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Yunnan in China, and Brazil [1] - In May 2023, Luckin established an office in Ethiopia, and by November 2024, it signed a five-year memorandum for the procurement of 240,000 tons of coffee beans in Brazil, along with setting up local offices and support centers [1] Group 2 - In non-coffee raw material sourcing, Luckin plans to procure approximately 1 million tons of high-standard Indonesian coconuts over the next five years, enhancing its Coconut Latte product line [2] - The company has created a dedicated jasmine flower production area in Guangxi, overseeing the quality control of jasmine tea from cultivation to harvesting [2] - Luckin's coffee bean procurement from Brazil accounts for 60% of Brazil's total coffee exports to China, and it is a major consumer of lemons from Anju, Sichuan, leading the industry in consumption scale [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tims China reported a 4.9% year-on-year decline in total revenue for Q2 2025, amounting to 349 million yuan, while system sales increased by 1.4% to 409.5 million yuan, driven by a strong performance in the food segment and a differentiated strategy of "coffee + fresh prepared meals" [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 2025 decreased by 4.9% to 349 million yuan, while system sales grew by 1.4% to 409.5 million yuan [1] - Food revenue saw a significant increase of 8.6%, accounting for 35.2% of system sales, marking a historical high [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was 2.2 million yuan, indicating a positive turnaround [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a differentiated strategy focusing on "coffee + fresh prepared meals," successfully launching new products like the "light lunch box" series [1][2] - Tims China introduced 43 new products in Q2, including 15 food items, which contributed to an 8.4% increase in marketing expenses [2] - The company aims to open approximately 200 new MTO (made-to-order) stores in China by 2025, primarily through franchising [3] Group 3: Franchise and Store Expansion - The number of franchise stores increased by 116 year-on-year to 449, leading to a 50.7% rise in other income, reaching 67.1 million yuan [3] - The total number of global stores reached 1,015, with a net addition of 40 MTO stores and the closure of 49 non-MTO stores [3] - The company plans to enhance its presence in high-traffic locations such as train stations and airports, targeting specific channels like hospitals and schools [3]

Group 1 - Starbucks has upgraded its tea latte category with the launch of the new roasted tea latte series, emphasizing a "real tea + real milk" combination to enhance consumer experience [2] - The new product lineup includes classic matcha latte and roasted tea latte, along with upgraded versions of matcha frappuccino, matcha cocoa chip frappuccino, white peach matcha latte, white peach matcha frappuccino, and roasted tea frappuccino [2] - The company has introduced a customization feature allowing consumers to add various flavors from the "no sugar" innovation system, adjust sweetness levels, and increase tea concentration by adding matcha or roasted tea liquid [2] Group 2 - There is a growing trend among consumers in China towards health-conscious choices, with over one-third of tea latte enthusiasts opting for reduced sugar when ordering [2] - Starbucks is responding to the demand for healthier, low-sugar non-coffee beverages by innovating its product offerings, with the upgraded matcha latte recipe reducing sugar by over 50% and the matcha frappuccino recipe reducing sugar by over 30% [2][3] - The shift in consumer preferences towards "clean label" products has led to a demand for transparency in ingredients, prompting Starbucks to establish higher health standards in its tea latte offerings [3]

Core Insights - Starbucks has upgraded its tea latte offerings, introducing a new roasted tea latte series and enhancing the matcha latte series with high-quality whole leaf tea powder [1][2] - The company continues to innovate in response to diverse consumer preferences, particularly in the non-coffee beverage segment, which has become increasingly popular since its launch [2] - The upgraded matcha latte recipe has reduced sugar by over 50%, while the matcha frappuccino has reduced sugar by over 30%, catering to the growing health-conscious consumer base [2][3] Product Innovation - The new tea latte products emphasize high-quality ingredients, simple and clean recipes, and a unique tea-making approach, aiming to deliver high-quality and flavorful beverages [2] - Starbucks has introduced a customizable experience for customers, allowing them to add various flavors, ice cream, and adjust sweetness levels to create personalized drinks [2] Health Trends - There is a notable shift in consumer demand towards healthier beverage options, with a focus on low-sugar, low-calorie, and transparent ingredient labels [3] - The company has recognized this trend and is committed to meeting these evolving consumer needs by establishing higher health standards in its tea latte offerings [3]

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee achieved a remarkable sales milestone by selling over 20 million cups on August 7, coinciding with the "first cup of milk tea in autumn" promotional event [1] - The company has launched several new products and collaborations that have garnered significant attention in the industry, including the Yu Yi Light Body Fruit and Vegetable Tea, which sold over 11.2 million cups within two weeks of its release [1] - The collaboration with the popular drama "The Lychee of Chang'an" led to the Lychee Cold Brew series selling out shortly after its launch [1] Product Performance - The Light Milk Tea series has accumulated sales of over 300 million cups in its first year, outperforming many signature products from other tea brands [1] - The "Morning Coffee, Afternoon Tea" all-day consumption strategy has been recognized as a significant success for the company [1] Operational Strengths - Luckin Coffee focuses on high quality, convenience, and cost-effectiveness in its coffee and tea products, with improvements in product innovation, standardization, and supply chain management [1] - The recent surge in sales is attributed to the company's excellent store operations, robust supply chain system, and mature delivery system, enabling it to effectively seize industry opportunities and accelerate growth [1]

Group 1 - On August 8, Luckin Coffee achieved a daily sales volume exceeding 20 million cups, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou being the top five cities for sales on this day [1] - In Shanghai alone, sales surpassed 1 million cups, with the highest-performing store located at Lujiazui Zhengda Plaza selling 2,691 cups [1] Group 2 - Luckin Coffee's recent product launches and collaborations have garnered significant attention, including the "Yuhui Light Body Fruit and Vegetable Tea," which sold over 11.2 million cups within two weeks of its release [3] - The company also reported that the "Lychee Ice Brew" series, in collaboration with the popular drama "Chang'an's Lychee," sold out within two days [3] - The "Green Sand Latte," launched in July, achieved sales of over 9 million cups in its first week [3] - As of August 4, the light milk tea series has accumulated total sales exceeding 300 million cups in its first year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks' Q3 FY2025 financial report reveals a contrasting performance with "global pressure and recovery in China," highlighting a significant drop in global net profit while showing growth in the Chinese market [3][11]. Financial Performance - Starbucks China reported revenue of $790 million, a year-on-year increase of 8%, while global net profit plummeted by 47.1% to $560 million [3][11]. - Same-store sales in China grew by 2%, marking the first increase in a year and a half, driven by a 6% increase in transaction volume, although the average ticket price decreased by 4% [4][7]. Strategic Adjustments - The growth in same-store sales is attributed to product innovation and marketing activities, including the launch of the "True Taste Sugar-Free" system [7][17]. - Starbucks has implemented price adjustments on non-coffee products, reducing prices by 2-6 yuan, to attract a broader customer base and enhance consumption during off-peak hours [16][17]. Market Competition - The competitive landscape in China's coffee market is intensifying, with local brands like Luckin Coffee and others gaining market share, leading to a decline in Starbucks' market share from 34% in 2019 to 14% in 2024 [12][13]. - Luckin Coffee reported a net revenue of 12.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.1%, and a total of 26,117 stores, significantly outpacing Starbucks [12]. Store Expansion - Starbucks China has expanded its store count to 7,828, with a net increase of 522 stores compared to Q3 FY2024, and opened 70 new stores during the reporting period [8][9]. - New stores have maintained high profitability levels, contributing above-average same-store sales growth [10]. Ownership and Investment Interest - Starbucks has acknowledged interest from over 20 parties regarding potential equity acquisition in its China operations, with a valuation of up to $10 billion [21][22]. - The company aims to retain a significant portion of its equity in China, with any transaction needing to align with its interests [22][23].