证券研究报告 | 2025年10月10日 纺织服装 10 月投资策略 优于大市 9 月越南纺服出口同比转正，羊毛价格上涨显著 行情回顾：9 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势弱于大盘，其中纺织制造表现优于品 牌服饰，截至 10/9 日，分别+0.1%/-1.6%；港股纺服指数弱于大盘，9 月以 来板块整体下跌。重点关注公司中 9 月以来涨幅领先的包括：新澳股份 (16.9%)/丰泰企业(14.9%)/阿迪达斯(11.6%)/儒鸿(10.8%)/申洲国际 (8.6%)/报喜鸟(7.6%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：8 月服装社零同比增长 3.1%，增速环比提升，较 上月提速 1.3 百分点。9 月今年因较去年缺少中秋假期，同时气温仍然较热， 我们预计 9 月服装销售较 7-8 月有一定压力；去年十一假期受促销费政策带 动基数较高，今年受气温、以及出行客流增加分流影响，预计服饰销售存在 压力。2）电商：8 月电商户外品类增长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲 服饰/家纺/个护分别同比-1%/+22%/ -1%/-7%/-1%。运动服饰中，增速领先 的品牌包括迪桑特(51%)、露露乐蒙(35%)；户外品牌中，凯乐石(113 ...

行情回顾：9 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势弱于大盘，其中纺织制造表现优于品 牌服饰，截至 10/9 日，分别+0.1%/-1.6%；港股纺服指数弱于大盘，9 月以 来板块整体下跌。重点关注公司中 9 月以来涨幅领先的包括：新澳股份 (16.9%)/丰泰企业(14.9%)/阿迪达斯(11.6%)/儒鸿(10.8%)/申洲国际 (8.6%)/报喜鸟(7.6%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：8 月服装社零同比增长 3.1%，增速环比提升，较 上月提速 1.3 百分点。9 月今年因较去年缺少中秋假期，同时气温仍然较热， 我们预计 9 月服装销售较 7-8 月有一定压力；去年十一假期受促销费政策带 动基数较高，今年受气温、以及出行客流增加分流影响，预计服饰销售存在 压力。2）电商：8 月电商户外品类增长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲 服饰/家纺/个护分别同比-1%/+22%/ -1%/-7%/-1%。运动服饰中，增速领先 的品牌包括迪桑特(51%)、露露乐蒙(35%)；户外品牌中，凯乐石(113%)、蕉 下(79%)、可隆(69%)较其他品牌增长强劲；休闲服饰中，江南布衣(65%)保 持快速增长，主要靠京东、天猫平台带 ...

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience in mid-term performance, with the sports segment leading apparel consumption [1][12] - In August, the A-share textile and apparel sector slightly underperformed the broader market, but has shown stable performance since September, with brand apparel outperforming textile manufacturing [1][12] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in July grew by 1.8% year-on-year, with a slight deceleration compared to the previous month [1] - E-commerce growth in July rebounded significantly, with outdoor sports leading the way; growth rates for various segments included sports apparel at +11%, outdoor apparel at +26%, and home textiles at +10% [1] - Notable brand performances included Decathlon with +63%, Puma with +41%, and Lululemon with +39% in sports apparel; outdoor brands like Kailas and Arc'teryx also showed strong growth [1] Textile Manufacturing Insights - In August, Vietnam's textile exports fell by 4.5% year-on-year, while China's textile exports improved slightly with a growth rate of 1.4% [2] - The export performance of apparel and footwear from China was poor, with declines of 10.1% and 17.1% respectively [2] - The price of cotton showed slight fluctuations in August, with a small decline noted in September [2] Sector Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, textile manufacturing revenue grew by 7.8% year-on-year, while the apparel and home textile sector faced a decline of 6.4% [3] - The gross margin for the textile manufacturing sector remained stable at 19.4%, while the apparel and home textile sector's gross margin increased slightly to 46.1% [3] - Key players in the apparel sector, such as Anta and Xtep, maintained steady growth in revenue and profit, while non-sports apparel faced significant challenges [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued leaders with strong fundamentals in brand apparel, particularly in the sports segment, with recommendations for Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Li Ning [6] - In textile manufacturing, recommend companies with significant rebound potential and strong fundamentals, such as Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [6]

Core Viewpoint - The sports sector is leading the industry in 25H1, with other segments and stocks still showing potential highlights. A-share brands have improved revenue growth in Q2, driven mainly by e-commerce and direct sales channels, while profit margins are under pressure. Some stocks like Ge Li Si and Jiu Mu Wang have achieved positive net profit growth [1][2]. Group 1: A-share Brands - Revenue growth in 25Q2 improved compared to Q1, with median growth rates of -4.2% in Q1 and -3.0% in Q2, primarily driven by e-commerce and direct sales channels, while franchise channels are under significant pressure [2]. - E-commerce channels are leading growth, with brands like Hai Lan Zhi Jia, Bi Yin Le Fen, and Jiu Mu Wang expanding direct sales channels, showing positive results, while franchise channels are contracting overall [2]. - In terms of profit, Q2 saw increased pressure on net profits, with only Jiu Mu Wang (+41.3%), Ge Li Si (+38.8%), and Hai Lan Zhi Jia (+1.4%) achieving positive growth in net profit, while others experienced varying degrees of decline [2]. - Inventory turnover days increased for most brands in Q2, indicating weak sales and rising inventory levels, with only a few brands like Ge Li Si and Luo Lai Life showing improved turnover days [2]. Group 2: Hong Kong Sports Brands - In 25H1, revenue for Hong Kong sports brands showed positive growth, with e-commerce channels leading, and major brands like Anta Sports and Xtep International achieving high growth through specialized brands [3]. - The competition in the mass sports sector intensified in Q2, with most major brands, except Li Ning, experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth compared to Q1 [3]. - Profitability remained stable in 25H1 despite pressures on gross margins from increased online sales and deeper discounts, with brands maintaining healthy net profit margins through cost control and efficiency improvements [3]. - Inventory management is strong for brands like Xtep International and Li Ning, with stable inventory turnover days, while Anta Sports and 361 Degrees saw increases in inventory levels [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company sees four main investment themes: the ongoing trend in sports, resilient performance in the sports sector, opportunities in structural demand for affordable luxury, undervalued high-dividend stocks, and expansion into new businesses and models [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the sports footwear and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, with respective 2025 PE ratios of 18x, 19x, and 12x [5][9][10]. Core Insights - The sports footwear and apparel sector shows robust growth, with a 9.1% year-on-year revenue increase to 65.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, and a net profit growth of 8.2% to 10.54 billion yuan after adjusting for one-time gains and losses from the previous year [1][17]. - A-shares in the branded apparel sector experienced stable revenue but significant profit pressure, with a slight revenue decline of 0.1% and a net profit drop of 17.5% in H1 2025 [2][17]. - The textile manufacturing sector faced a weakening trend in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, with a revenue increase of 2.7% but a net profit decline of 9.8% [3][17]. - The gold and jewelry sector saw weak demand, with gold jewelry consumption down 27% and 24% in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively, highlighting the importance of product and brand strength [4][17]. Summary by Sections H-Shares Sports Footwear and Apparel - Revenue for key companies grew 9.1% to 65.9 billion yuan, with net profit increasing 8.2% to 10.54 billion yuan after adjustments [1][17]. - Companies are focusing on expanding differentiated store formats and enhancing product performance in running shoes while entering new outdoor categories for long-term growth [1][17]. A-Shares Branded Apparel - Revenue remained stable with a slight decline of 0.1%, while net profit fell 17.5% due to increased sales expenses [2][17]. - The home textile category showed stable demand, while fashion and leisure apparel companies exhibited varied performance [2][17]. - The outlook for H2 2025 suggests potential easing of profit pressure as companies manage expenses more effectively [2][17]. Textile Manufacturing - The sector's performance weakened in Q2 2025, with revenue growth of 2.7% and a net profit decline of 9.8% [3][17]. - The impact of changing tariff policies is noted, with Southeast Asian products gaining market share in the U.S. [3][17]. - Companies with integrated and international supply chains are expected to benefit from market share gains in the long term [3][17]. Gold and Jewelry - Overall demand for gold jewelry remains weak, with significant declines in consumption [4][17]. - Companies with strong product and brand capabilities are focusing on product development and marketing to differentiate themselves in a competitive market [4][17].

Industry Overview - The textile and apparel industry report by Guotai Junan Securities provides a multi-dimensional analysis of the sector, highlighting key metrics across different market segments [1][2] - The A-share SW textile and apparel sector has a market capitalization of 688.1 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 535.7 billion yuan and net profits of 22.7 billion yuan for 2024 [1][9] - The Hong Kong HS textile and apparel sector has a market capitalization of 1,668 billion yuan, with net profits of 74.7 billion yuan [1][13] - The US WIND textile and apparel sector has a market capitalization of 299.7 billion yuan, with revenues of 169.8 billion yuan and net profits of 12.5 billion yuan [1][13] Market Segmentation - In 2024, the market share for women's wear, men's wear, sportswear, and children's wear is projected to be 46%, 27%, 15%, and 12% respectively [2] - The concentration ratios for the sportswear market are CR3 at 27.66%, CR5 at 44.80%, and CR10 at 65.73% [2] Supply Chain Structure - The industry supply chain is divided into upstream (raw materials like metals, oil, and textiles), midstream (production of dyeing, weaving, and garments), and downstream (brands and e-commerce channels) [1][22] - Key upstream materials include cotton and polyester, while midstream activities involve garment manufacturing and dyeing [1][22] Financial Performance - The report tracks revenue, cost proportions, and growth rates for various companies from 2019 to 2024, alongside metrics for US retail and apparel sales [2][25] - The textile manufacturing sector shows a high dependency on raw material costs, which can lead to cyclical performance [25][26] Company Analysis - The report lists major companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Huayi Group, Anta Sports, and Nike, detailing their market positions and financial metrics [1][9][13] - The performance of companies is influenced by their ability to adapt to market changes and manage operational efficiencies [19][25] Research Methodology - The report outlines the research methodology, including the tracking of external and internal growth impacts on company performance [2][24] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and consumer behavior in the textile and apparel industry [2][24]

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has outperformed the broader market since August, with the textile manufacturing segment showing better performance than branded apparel [15][21] - In July, the textile manufacturing sector increased by 4.5%, while branded apparel rose by 3.2% [15][21] - Key companies leading the gains include 361 Degrees (29.9%), Crystal International (26.8%), Tianhong International (25.0%), and Bailong Oriental (15.9%) [15] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in June grew by 1.9% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and the pre-promotion of the 618 shopping festival [2] - E-commerce sales saw a decline across various categories in June, with sportswear down by 17%, outdoor apparel by 2%, and home textiles by 24% [2] - Notable brand performances include Lululemon (48%) and Decathlon (76%) showing strong growth in their respective categories [2] Textile Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile exports accelerated in July, with a month-on-month growth rate of 16.7%, while footwear exports turned positive at 4.5% [3] - China's textile exports showed no significant improvement in June, with textiles down by 1.6% and footwear down by 4.0% year-on-year [3] - The impact of currency fluctuations and tariffs on revenue has been noted, with companies like Ru Hong experiencing stable performance despite tariff pressures [3] Mid-Year Earnings Forecast - Bailong Oriental expects a net profit growth of 50.21% to 75.97% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, driven by strong order volumes and improved capacity utilization [4] - Tianhong International anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 60% for the same period, benefiting from improved sales and financial structure [4] Policy Impact on Consumer Demand - The introduction of a child-rearing subsidy policy is expected to boost demand in the baby and children's market, with a yearly subsidy of 3600 yuan for eligible children under three starting from January 2025 [4][7] - Companies like Sturdy Medical, which offers high-quality cotton products, are likely to benefit from this policy [7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on brands with growth potential and limited tariff impacts, such as Anta Sports, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [7][8] - In textile manufacturing, companies with low exposure to U.S. tariffs and high profit margins, such as Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, are recommended for investment [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [2] Core Views - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a divergence in brand performance, with manufacturing sentiment improving [2] - Retail growth in the apparel sector showed a slight deceleration in Q2, but there is potential for improvement in Q3 due to a lower base from the previous year [3] - Key players in the H-share market, such as Anta Sports and 361 Degrees, are expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth in H1 2025, while other brands like Xtep and Li Ning are projected to achieve single-digit revenue growth [5][8] - A-share brands are showing mixed performance, with some companies like Weigang Medical and Hailan Home benefiting from strong retail growth and product expansion [8] Summary by Sections Textile Manufacturing - Sentiment in textile manufacturing is improving, focusing on stable growth for oversold leaders [2] - Key recommendations include Shenzhou International, Crystal International, and Huayi Group, which are expected to show resilience in performance [2] Brand Apparel - The brand apparel sector is witnessing a split in performance, with some companies achieving growth despite retail environment pressures [8] - Notable performers include Weigang Medical, Hailan Home, and Luolai Life, which are expected to see significant revenue and profit growth in Q2 [8][9] Market Outlook - The outlook for the second half of the year emphasizes focusing on industry leaders with positive operational changes and attractive valuations, such as Hailan Home and Weigang Medical [9] - The Hong Kong market for sports and functional apparel is expected to remain resilient, with recommendations for brands like Anta Sports and Bosideng [10]

Group 1 - The current market is transitioning from a stock market to an incremental market, with A-shares experiencing high volatility in certain sectors while manufacturing sectors remain undervalued [1] - The "anti-involution" narrative is compared to the "Belt and Road" initiative, suggesting that it will help stimulate low-performing sectors in the context of increased capital inflow [1] - The valuation gap in Hong Kong stocks is becoming apparent, with insurance funds likely to expand their investment scope, indicating a favorable time to increase allocations to Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to anchor the basic expectations of the midstream manufacturing sector, with short-term investment opportunities becoming more apparent [2] - The passing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. is expected to enhance fiscal stimulus, reducing the risk of a deep recession and improving visibility for China's supply-demand dynamics by 2026 [2] - The market has already begun to reflect a "bull market atmosphere," with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key levels, enhancing risk appetite and spreading profit-making effects [2] Group 3 - A-share market performance has been strong, driven by the upward trend in U.S. stocks and the positive impact of technology leaders reaching new highs [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate domestic price pressures, with the upcoming earnings season providing a favorable environment for stocks with positive earnings forecasts [3] - The overall earnings improvement rate for A-shares is higher than the same period last year, indicating structural opportunities in high-growth TMT sectors and competitive midstream manufacturing [3] Group 4 - The "transformation bull market" is gaining momentum, driven by a systematic reduction in market discount rates and a favorable shift in economic structure [4] - The willingness of investors to accept risk is increasing, suggesting that the market may consolidate before making new highs [4] - Short-term focus should be on the "anti-involution" theme, with a rotation towards growth sectors continuing [4] Group 5 - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: AI technology breakthroughs, consumer stock valuation recovery, and the rise of undervalued assets [5] - The recovery cycle in consumer stocks is supported by low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, indicating potential opportunities in the sector [5] Group 6 - The capital return in A-shares is expected to stabilize and recover due to the "anti-involution" policy and the cessation of debt contraction [6] - The combination of domestic manufacturing recovery and overseas capital return will enhance the attractiveness of A-shares compared to other markets [6] - Recommended investment strategies include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods that benefit from both domestic and international trends [6] Group 7 - The current market conditions resemble those of 2014, with a significant disconnect between market performance and earnings [7] - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a positive signal, although its impact may be weaker than previous real estate policy shifts [7] - The market is expected to experience a similar trend to the second half of 2014, but tactical breakthroughs may not be smooth [7] Group 8 - The A-share index has recently surpassed 3500 points, with financial sectors and technology themes driving market momentum [8] - The market's valuation has recovered from the bottom, indicating that further gains will require increased trading volume [8] - Structural opportunities are abundant, with a focus on stable dividend assets, resource products, and new technology sectors [8] Group 9 - The core drivers of the current market breakthrough include rising policy expectations, the "anti-involution" investment theme, and improved trading activity [9] - July is viewed as a favorable window for investment, with a focus on TMT, non-bank financials, and military sectors [9] - The AI computing sector's performance is closely tied to the strong results of benchmark U.S. stocks, influencing A-share valuations [9] Group 10 - The market is in a new bullish phase, with investor sentiment improving and incremental capital entering the market [10] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate income stagnation, potentially leading to a new phase of market growth [10] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors related to the "anti-involution" theme, stable currencies, and sectors with positive earnings forecasts [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current strong resonance between Chinese and American stock markets reflects optimistic expectations for future corporate capital returns, with A-shares stabilizing from historical lows and U.S. stocks maintaining high ROE levels [1][2] - The three main catalysts for stabilizing and recovering capital returns in A-shares are: (1) anti-involution leading to stabilization in industries previously constrained by excessive capital expansion, (2) overseas manufacturing demand exceeding service sector demand, and (3) the end of debt contraction cycles [2][3] - The current market pricing indicates that short-term stock prices are ahead of ROE, which aligns with historical bottoming characteristics, and while the absolute level of PB is not extreme, the low absolute level of ROE affects the elasticity and pace of PB recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The future state of capital returns is expected to shift, with domestic capital returns stabilizing and overseas capital returns potentially declining due to the combination of anti-involution, cessation of debt contraction, and the development of overseas manufacturing [4][5] - The relative advantage of the "barbell strategy" may diminish as ROE gradually recovers, with traditional industries such as coal, oil, steel, and utilities showing a higher proportion of low PB stocks compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods benefiting from increased overseas demand and domestic anti-involution policies, as well as exploring opportunities in new consumption sectors like hospitality and retail [5]