尽管英国经济数据表现亮眼，英镑却未能延续上涨势头，核心原因在于外部美元的强势压制与内部隐忧 并存。近期美国公布的生产者物价指数、零售销售数据均超出预期，失业率维持低位，强化了市场对美 联储将在未来数月维持高利率的预期，美元凭借利差优势和避险属性保持强势，直接压制了英镑的上涨 空间。 英国经济自身也存在结构性隐忧，11月建筑活动环比下降1.3%，不仅弱于市场预期的持平水平，还较 10月的跌幅进一步扩大。建筑业走弱与融资成本高企、房地产需求降温以及企业资本开支趋于谨慎直接 相关，若该趋势持续，将削弱"全面复苏"的市场预期，让更多参与者将本次增长视为阶段性企稳而非趋 势性反转。 货币政策层面的差异也进一步限制了英镑的突破动能。英国央行当前核心关注点仍在通胀路径的稳定 性，本次GDP数据虽缓解了需求塌陷的担忧，但并未达到促使央行立即调整政策立场的程度，0.3%的 月度增长仅为决策层提供了观察通胀走势的窗口，政策大概率维持偏紧观望状态。而美联储因美国经济 基本面稳固，降息预期不断延后，美英利差格局未发生根本变化，使得英镑难以获得持续上行的支撑。 后续英镑能否突破震荡区间，将取决于两条主线：一是英国通胀、薪资等后续数据能 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.10 2026-01-14 失业率回落：1 月降息门槛仍高 2025 年 12 月美国非农数据点评 本报告导读： 12 月美国就业市场低招聘、低裁员的状态仍在持续。一方面，失业率超预期回落至 4.4%，中断了持续回升的势头；但另一方面，新增就业仍呈放缓趋势，后续年度修 正或有进一步下调。在已连续三次降息且失业率未进一步走高的情况下，1 月份美 联储仍有时间与空间选择暂停降息。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 快 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 失业率回落：市场担忧暂缓。短期内市场对美国就业持续恶化的担 忧或暂时缓解。一方面，美国 12 月失业率超预期回落至 4.4%，11 月失业率也下修至 4.5%，失业率恶化势头有所中断。U6 失业率也有 明显回落，边缘就业群体压力有所减轻。另一方面，12 月平均每周 工作时长虽有回落但仍处于稳定区间，平均时薪增速有所回升，初 次申请失业金人数在 12 月以来也维持稳定。 就业市场："冻结"状态仍在持续。虽然失业率攀升的警报暂时解除， 但新增就业仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December 2025, which exceeded expectations, signals a potential bullish market trend for 2026, reminiscent of the 2008-2009 market recovery [1][6][26]. Economic Indicators - The December 2025 manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to the expansion zone after eight months [5][16]. - The non-manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, while the composite PMI rose to 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [5][16]. - Historical trends show that PMIs typically experience seasonal declines at year-end, but the current data reflects a significant "reverse seasonal" increase, indicating stronger economic potential for Q1 2026 [5][16]. Sector Performance - The production index and new orders index for December were 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing substantial increases, particularly the new orders index, which rose above the critical point for the first time since the second half of 2025 [9][20]. - Industries such as food processing, textiles, and electronics showed production and new orders indices above 53.0%, indicating robust demand, while sectors like non-metallic minerals and black metal processing faced challenges with indices below the critical point [9][20]. Market Sentiment - The current economic environment is characterized by a strong willingness for production expansion, as indicated by rising PMI indices for production activities and procurement [17][20]. - The upcoming Spring Festival in 2026, occurring later than usual, has prompted companies to adjust production schedules to avoid disruptions, contributing to increased production activity [21]. Price Trends - The raw material purchase price index decreased by 0.5 percentage points, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points, suggesting improved pricing dynamics and potential profit margins for mid- and downstream industries [21]. - The new export orders index rose by 1.4 percentage points, reflecting enhanced resilience in Chinese exports and reduced dependency on specific markets [21]. Construction Sector - The construction business activity index surged to 52.8%, a significant increase of 3.2 percentage points, indicating a recovery in the construction sector after four months below the critical threshold [22][23]. - Factors contributing to this increase include favorable weather conditions in southern provinces and proactive measures by companies to accelerate construction progress [22][23]. Conclusion - The December 2025 PMI's unexpected rise suggests renewed policy momentum, with expectations for a strong economic start in Q1 2026, supporting a bullish outlook for the upcoming "spring market rally" [24][26].

改革成效通过数据直观呈现："十四五"期间，全省累计完成工程保证保险14.8万单，企业累计缴纳保费 1.95亿元，累计释放各类保证金213.7亿元。与"十三五"时期相比，保单数量、保费规模、释放保证金金 额分别增长13.6倍、6.2倍和7.1倍，标志着工程保证保险已成为我省工程建设领域保证金缴纳的主流方 式。 此项改革不仅大幅缓解企业现金流压力，提升资金使用效率，而且激发了市场活力，减轻了企业负担， 中小企业得以将更多资金投入技术装备升级、人员培训和项目质量安全管理。同时，保险机构的专业风 控流程形成市场化约束，有效助推行业诚信体系建设。工程保证保险的全面推行为优化营商环境、推动 建筑业高质量发展注入了强劲动力。 本报讯 （记者 王臻） 1月8日，记者从"'十四五'发展成就"系列主题新闻发布会省住房和城乡建设厅专 场获悉，作为"十四五"期间深化"放管服"改革的关键举措，青海在房屋市政工程领域全面创新推行工程 保证保险，以"减负""激活"为核心，替代传统现金缴纳保证金方式，为建筑业企业松绑赋能。 为解决投标、履约、质量、农民工工资支付四类保证金长期以来占用建筑业企业大量流动资金的难题， 青海紧跟国家政策导向、结合 ...

核心观点 经济周周看：经济存在开门红特征 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 1 月 10 日）为 5.9%，与上周修订值 5.0%明显回 升，服务业是核心拉动，主要因素源于金融业贡献增加、出行表现活跃。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周均有所改善。 从需求端来看，外需仍然强势，内需方面基建实物工作量强于季节性 从价格端来看，消费品价格涨跌互现，工业品价格环比微降 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降； 地缘政治博弈强度超预期。 证券研 ...

中金研究 近年来，我国消费增长动能呈现放缓态势，其主要症结或并非居民消费意愿不足，而是消费能力受限，这背后是居民收入增长放缓与收入 预期转弱。本文从就业视角剖析居民增收的压力来源，通过对劳动力市场供需状况进行系统性拆分发现，当前就业市场正面临三重压力： 一是经济增长低于潜在水平造成的总需求缺口；二是工业与服务业复苏分化带来的结构性缺口；三是技术进步和工时延长形成的效率挤压 缺口。我们基于潜在经济增速、产业结构调整、技术进步以及工时变化的历史趋势，测算了2024年非农就业的趋势水平，并将其与实际就 业水平进行对比。结果显示，上述三类缺口规模相当，各占潜在就业总缺口的1/3左右。系统性破解就业市场的三重压力，是促进居民增 收、提振消费内生动力的关键。 点击小程序查看报告原文 消费疲软的三个典型事实 从总量看，消费增长趋势性放缓。 2001-2023年消费对我国经济增长的平均贡献率为53.1%，2024年回落至44.5%；社会消费品零售总额增速中 枢从2019年前的8%以上，降至2024年不足4%。 从结构看，服务消费复苏滞后 。 商品消费支出增速已基本回稳，但服务消费依然乏力。餐饮、居住、教育、文化娱乐等主要服务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stable employment for rural workers, particularly for those who have escaped poverty, and highlights the need for targeted support to prevent a return to poverty due to unemployment [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Employment and Income - Labor income is the largest source of income for farmers, and the central rural work conference has proposed measures to support migrant workers and promote stable employment [1] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the scale of employment for the poverty-stricken population has remained stable at over 30 million, ensuring that large-scale poverty does not occur [1] - The article notes that if one member of a three-person household can maintain stable employment, the family is less likely to fall back into poverty [1] Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - There are successful cases of migrant workers and college students returning to their hometowns to start businesses, but the employment absorption capacity in poverty-stricken areas is limited compared to larger cities [2] - The article warns against the dilemma of returning workers facing unemployment in cities and a lack of jobs in rural areas, stressing the need for human capital investment to enhance skills among the poverty-stricken population [2] - The coexistence of labor shortages and job vacancies in certain skilled positions indicates a need for skill adaptation among migrant workers [2] Group 3: Employment Support Strategies - The article advocates for a dual approach to employment: promoting both external and local job opportunities, with targeted training programs to enhance skills in areas like home services and e-commerce [3] - Development of local industries is crucial for creating job opportunities, and there is a call for precise assistance to help returning farmers find direction and stability [3] - The article suggests leveraging labor brands and traditional craftsmanship to enhance employment and entrepreneurship among the rural population [3] Group 4: Rural Revitalization - A broader perspective on rural revitalization involves addressing the outflow of young populations and creating conditions for local employment and entrepreneurship [4] - The article emphasizes the need for rural industries to retain people and attract investment, ensuring that rural areas become viable places for living and working [4] - The focus for the new year should be on enhancing the internal development motivation of the poverty-stricken population, leading to improved living standards [4]

Core Insights - The number of companies applying for standard bankruptcy procedures in Germany increased by 15.2% year-on-year as of December 2025, indicating heightened operational pressures on businesses towards the end of the year [1] Group 1: Bankruptcy Statistics - In October 2025, a total of 2,108 companies reported bankruptcy applications, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - The total debt owed by creditors amounted to approximately €2.6 billion, which is lower than the €3.8 billion reported in the same period of 2024 [1] - The transportation and warehousing sector experienced the highest frequency of bankruptcies, with 12.3 bankruptcies per 10,000 companies, followed by the accommodation and food services sector at 10.5, and the construction sector at 8.5 [1] Group 2: Expert Analysis - The chief analyst of the German Chamber of Commerce, Volker Treier, noted that the number of companies ceasing operations due to bankruptcy is at its highest level in nearly 11 years, with an expectation that the total number of bankruptcies for 2025 will exceed 23,000 [1] - Treier urged the government to implement effective measures to alleviate burdens related to taxes, energy prices, and administrative procedures, highlighting a gap between policy suggestions and actual implementation [1]

Economic Growth - Kazakhstan's GDP is projected to grow by 6.5% year-on-year in 2025, driven by key sectors such as industry, transportation, construction, and trade [1] - The industrial production index is expected to increase by 7.4%, with manufacturing growing by 6.4% [1] - Notable growth is observed in specific sectors, including mechanical manufacturing, which is anticipated to rise by 12.9% [1] Transportation and Logistics - The transportation and logistics sector is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with transportation and warehousing increasing by 20.4% year-on-year [1] - Rising freight volumes in rail and road transport are contributing to growth in related services such as freight forwarding and airport operations [1] Construction Sector - The construction industry is projected to grow by 15.9%, with new housing area reaching 20.1 million square meters, a 5.1% increase year-on-year [1] - Increased investment in education, healthcare, and infrastructure is effectively driving growth in the construction sector [1] Trade Performance - Total trade volume is expected to grow by 8.9%, continuing the previous growth trend, with wholesale trade showing significant increases [2] - Key commodities such as food, machinery, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and dairy products are experiencing rapid sales growth, indicating sustained market demand [2] Agriculture and Communication - The agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors are projected to grow by 5.9%, while the information and communication sector is expected to increase by 3.6% [3] - In 2024, Kazakhstan's GDP is anticipated to grow by 5% [3]

投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月12日 [失业率回落令市场押注美国经济复苏 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：美国2025年12月非农数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [table_main] ➢ 事件：当地时间1月9日，美国劳工局公布2025年12月美国非农就业数据。美国12月季调 后非农就业人口新增5.0万人，预期6.0万人，前值增6.4万人；失业率下降至4.4%，预期 4.5%，前值从4.6%下修至4.5%。 ➢ 核心观点：美国12月非农就业数据略显平庸，非农新增5万人略低于预期，但市场关注依 然放在本次大超预期的失业率上。12月U3失业率从4.6%下修至4.5%，同时12月失业率再 次下降到4.4%，打消了此前市场对失业率触发"萨姆规则"的担忧。非农数据方面拆分来 看，服 ...