Group 1: Business Overview - In 2025, the total business volume reached 16.7 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, significantly exceeding the industry average growth rate [3] - Revenue reached 308.2 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year, with express logistics revenue at 228.6 billion yuan, growing 11.1% [3] - The supply chain and international revenue reached 72.9 billion yuan, a 3.5% increase, with supply chain and international (excluding KLN) revenue growing by 32.3% [3] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The company achieved a net profit of 11.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with a net profit margin of 3.6% [3] - The weighted average return on equity was 11.5%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company implemented strategic investments to enhance long-term competitiveness and dynamically adjusted its business structure to improve operational efficiency [3] Group 3: Service Segments - Express delivery revenue grew by 7.2%, outperforming domestic GDP growth, driven by targeted investments in diverse scenarios [4] - Economic express revenue increased by 17.6%, leveraging a "first have, then optimize" strategy for resource and product matching [5] - Fast delivery revenue rose by 11.9%, with a cargo volume increase of over 27%, maintaining a leading position in both scale and growth [6] Group 4: Supply Chain and International Business - Supply chain and international revenue (excluding KLN) grew by 32.3%, with a net profit of approximately 190 million yuan, an increase of 950 million yuan year-on-year [8] - The company developed three core capabilities to navigate international changes, including end-to-end supply chain support and agile international express services [8] - The company operates nearly 2.55 million square meters of overseas warehouses, with 2.1 million square meters in the Asia-Pacific region, leading the market [9] Group 5: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, business volume reached 4.6 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, with revenue of 83 billion yuan, up 7.0% [17] - The gross profit for 2025 was 41 billion yuan, a 3.6% increase, with a gross margin of 13.3% [19] - The company maintained a healthy capital structure with a debt-to-asset ratio of 49% and a free cash flow of 17.9 billion yuan [23] Group 6: Shareholder Returns - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 40%, distributing a total of 4.46 billion yuan in dividends, a 9% increase year-on-year [24] - The company has repurchased shares worth over 7 billion yuan since 2022, with plans to increase the repurchase amount to 3-6 billion yuan for A-shares [25] Group 7: ESG Initiatives - The company is committed to sustainable development, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050, and has established a carbon management platform [26] - The company's ESG practices have received high recognition, with an MSCI ESG rating upgrade from "A" to "AA" [27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery sector remains resilient, and the "anti-involution" trend is driving up express prices, which releases profit elasticity for companies, indicating a favorable long-term competitive opportunity for the e-commerce express delivery sector [15] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the continuous increase in crude oil production and tight capacity, with geopolitical changes potentially catalyzing market sentiment and fundamentals [15] - The aviation sector may see significant elasticity in performance if passenger turnover and ticket price growth continue, providing a buffer against high oil prices [15] Industry Dynamics Tracking Shipping and Ports - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting shipping routes and increasing operational requirements for vessels passing through [4] - The SCFI composite freight index increased by 7.0% week-on-week, reaching 1827 points, with notable increases in Shanghai to the US West Coast and East Coast [6] - The BDTI index for VLCC freight rates rose by 23.07% week-on-week, indicating a strong upward trend in oil transportation rates [7] Express Logistics - Express companies in Hunan have announced price increases due to rising operational costs from fuel price hikes [10] - The Guangdong Provincial Express Delivery Regulations were passed to promote high-quality development in the express delivery industry [10] - The express delivery sector's business volume reached 30.49 billion pieces in January-February 2026, a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [26] Aviation and Airports - China Eastern Airlines announced the purchase of 101 Airbus A320neo series aircraft, with deliveries planned from 2028 to 2032 [12][13] - The aviation sector is facing potential flight reductions due to fuel shortages caused by Middle Eastern conflicts [13] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volume at 80.31 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.66% [14] - Deep Highway reported a slight increase in net profit for 2025, with total revenue of 9.264 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.20% [14] Port Performance - China's port cargo throughput reached 25.824 million tons from March 16 to March 22, 2026, a week-on-week increase of 0.81% [9][78]

Core Viewpoint - UPS is freezing its dividend in 2026, disappointing investors who expected an increase, as the company has been paying out 80% to 90% of its net income as dividends, significantly above its long-term target of 50% to 60% [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Policy - UPS management has acknowledged that the current dividend payout is unsustainable and is working to return to its target payout ratio [2]. - The company does not expect any increase in dividends for 2026, indicating a strategic shift in financial management [2]. Group 2: Business Transformation - UPS is undergoing a significant transformation by reducing its reliance on low-margin Amazon business, which previously accounted for about 10% of its revenue, or approximately $10 billion [3][4]. - The company has cut its Amazon revenue by nearly half, shedding around $5 billion and 2 million packages per day, as it exits low-margin, high-volume work [4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - UPS is refocusing on higher-value customers, including small businesses, healthcare logistics, and business-to-business shipping, which is expected to be beneficial in the long term despite current challenges [5]. - The transition away from Amazon is part of a broader strategy to enhance profitability by targeting more lucrative segments of the market [5]. Group 4: Current Challenges - UPS is facing multiple pressures in the first half of 2026, including falling volumes due to the Amazon drawdown, transitional costs from shifting its economy shipping product back to the U.S. Postal Service, and temporary lease expenses from replacing its aging aircraft fleet [6][7]. - Domestic operating margins for the first quarter of 2026 are projected to be in the "mid-single digits," indicating significant financial strain [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant policy initiatives aimed at reducing workplace injury rates and promoting green energy transitions, indicating a shift towards preventive measures and sustainable practices in various sectors [5][8][10] Policy Developments - Nine departments jointly issued the "Five-Year Action Plan for Occupational Injury Prevention (2026-2030)", aiming to reduce occupational injury rates by approximately 10% in key industries over five years [5][6] - Seven departments released guidelines to accelerate the green transformation of small hydropower, targeting smart, intensive, and standardized development by 2035 [8][9] Industry Trends - China has successfully integrated 26 green logistics cases into international standards, showcasing advancements in resource utilization, low carbon emissions, and occupational health [10][11] - China joined the "Triple Nuclear Energy Declaration", committing to tripling global nuclear energy capacity by 2050, which supports the dual goals of energy security and climate change mitigation [13][14] International Events - A UN report indicates that gender inequality exacerbates the global water crisis, highlighting the disproportionate impact on women and girls [15][16] - Multiple U.S. states have filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration for revoking climate hazard recognition, emphasizing ongoing legal battles over environmental policies [18][19] Corporate Developments - China Huaneng Group has led the establishment of the first international standard for carbon capture monitoring and management, marking a significant step in CCUS standardization [20] - Shentong Express launched the first AI "Firefly" protection monitoring plan, focusing on ecological conservation and leveraging technology for environmental monitoring [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery industry remains resilient, with a top-down "anti-involution" policy driving up express prices, thereby releasing profit elasticity for companies. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express delivery is favorable due to healthy competition opportunities [16] - The oil transportation sector is expected to benefit from sustained crude oil production and tight capacity, with the "Changjin factor" reshaping pricing logic. Geopolitical changes may continue to catalyze sentiment or fundamentals, leading to a significant improvement in the oil transportation market in 2026 [16] - The bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of aging fleets and increased production of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and West Africa. The market is expected to enter a "new cycle" [16] - The shipping industry is experiencing a green renewal cycle, with demand driven by shipping market recovery and progress in green updates. The new shipbuilding market is expected to improve as constraints ease [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - Iran may establish a "safe passage" in the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple countries negotiating with Tehran for ship passage. However, security experts warn of potential delays or seizures by Iranian forces [4] - MSC Group has acquired a 50% stake in Changjin Shipping, supporting aggressive expansion of its VLCC fleet, which is estimated to control 150 VLCCs, significantly impacting market concentration and pricing [5] - The SCFI composite freight index decreased by 0.2% to 1707 points, with varying changes in freight rates across different routes [6] - The BDTI index for VLCC freight rates increased by 0.26% to 2821 points, while TCE rates for VLCCs decreased by 5.9% [7] - The BDI index for bulk carriers increased by 3.2% to 2046 points, indicating a rise in bulk shipping rates [8] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 9.52% to 25.617 million tons, with container throughput rising by 9.27% to 6.6 million TEU [10] Express Logistics - In January-February 2026, the express delivery industry volume grew by 7.1% year-on-year, with significant differentiation in market share among major players [9] - Zhongtong Express reported a stable net profit per ticket and committed to a shareholder return rate of no less than 50% [10] - Shentong plans to issue 3 billion yuan in convertible bonds for logistics network upgrades, with a commitment to distribute at least 30% of profits in cash over the next three years [11] - Price adjustments have been made in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, reflecting rising operational costs [12] Aviation and Airports - China and Thailand have suspended aviation fuel exports, potentially leading to fuel shortages for airlines [14] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced measures to promote travel service exports and expand inbound consumption [14] Road and Rail - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 6.7% and highway truck traffic rising by 14.75% [15]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The disruption of navigation in the Hormuz Strait has led VLCCs to reroute to the Yanbu Red Sea passage, with West African routes compensating for the export gap [3][12] - The escalation of the Middle East situation has caused tight air cargo capacity between Asia and Europe, with Cathay Pacific canceling flights to Dubai and Riyadh until March 31 and increasing capacity to Europe [3][16] - NVIDIA announced an expansion of its collaboration with Uber and Lyft, launching the Robotaxi plan in multiple U.S. cities starting in 2027, which has positively impacted related stocks [3][25] - WoFei ChangKong held a supply chain conference in Chengdu, unveiling a 10 billion opportunity list and receiving a 10 billion yuan credit support from ICBC [3][27] - The first "road-air integration" automotive test site in China has commenced operations, marking a significant step in low-altitude vehicle testing infrastructure [3][28] Industry Dynamics Shipping and Logistics - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index increased by 2.6% month-on-month but decreased by 0.7% year-on-year [30] - The container shipping price index (SCFI) rose by 29.38% year-on-year, while dry bulk freight rates increased by 25.75% year-on-year [41] - In February 2026, the express delivery volume decreased by 10.90% year-on-year, while revenue remained relatively stable with a slight decrease of 0.01% [53] Investment Recommendations - Focus on opportunities in oil transportation, dry bulk shipping, and container shipping sectors due to the evolving Middle East situation, recommending companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [4][15] - Attention to coal transportation-related stocks such as Daqin Railway and Jiayou International [4] - Investment opportunities in high-speed rail and highways, recommending companies like Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Emphasize low-altitude economy and autonomous driving trends, recommending companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Monitor international market expansion opportunities in express logistics, recommending SF Holding and Jitu Express [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, CAOCAO Mobility, and Jitu Express [8]. Core Insights - The oil shipping sector is expected to experience significant price elasticity due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with a potential scenario of "current destocking + future restocking" being favorable for VLCC [2][3]. - The air travel sector is projected to benefit from high passenger load factors, which may lead to ticket price increases, supported by low supply growth and recovering demand [12]. - The logistics sector shows signs of recovery, with major players like ZTO Express reporting improved profitability and a focus on quality over quantity in their operations [15][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 2.65% during the week of March 16-20, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.73 percentage points [19]. - The shipping sector was the only sub-sector to gain, with a 1.21% increase, while public transport, air transport, and logistics saw declines of -6.87%, -6.78%, and -5.76% respectively [19]. Air Travel - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic flight bookings for the Qingming Festival, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 23% [11]. - The international flight booking volume also showed a 13% increase year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in air travel demand [11][12]. Shipping and Ports - The report notes that VLCC rates are currently at $346,998 per day for Middle East routes and $127,870 per day for West African routes, reflecting the ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical risks [2][13]. - The dry bulk shipping market is expected to see moderate supply growth, with a focus on the impact of new iron ore projects and geopolitical developments [14]. Logistics - ZTO Express reported a net profit of 2.695 billion yuan for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.5%, indicating effective cost management and operational improvements [15][16]. - The express delivery industry saw a 7.1% year-on-year increase in volume during January-February 2026, with market share continuing to concentrate among leading companies [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a short-term profit turning point and long-term value due to business structure optimization and new growth opportunities in supply chain and international business [6][8]. - The company's express logistics business showed a revenue of 36.817 billion yuan in January-February, a year-on-year increase of 8.57%, with business volume growing by 9.44% [6][8]. - Average revenue per package slightly decreased by 0.79% to 14.98 yuan, but is expected to stabilize as the company adjusts its market strategy [6][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 312.76 billion yuan, 342.95 billion yuan, and 372.98 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.97%, 9.65%, and 8.76% respectively [6][7]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 11.075 billion yuan, 12.285 billion yuan, and 13.821 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.90%, 10.92%, and 12.50% respectively [6][7]. - The expected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 17 times, 15 times, and 13 times [6][7]. Business Performance - The company's stock performance over the last 12 months shows a decline of 14.2%, compared to a 14.3% increase in the CSI 300 index [5][6]. - The current stock price is 36.57 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 36.03 to 51.13 yuan [5][6]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 184.26 billion yuan [5].

順豐控股股份有限公司 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確 性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容所產生或因 依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 S.F. Holding Co., Ltd. （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：6936） 2026 年 2 月快遞物流業務經營簡報 根據《深圳證券交易所上市公司自律監管指引第3號 —— 行業信息披露》的規 定，順豐控股股份有限公司（以下簡稱「公司」或「本公司」）現披露2026年2月業 務經營簡報情況如下： | 項目 | | 2026年2月 | 2025年2月 | 同比變動 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. | 速運物流業務 | | | | | | 營業收入 （人民幣億元） | 164.21 | 131.49 | 24.88% | | | －業務量 （億票） | 10.72 | 9.16 | 17.03% | | | －單票收入 （人民幣元） | 15.32 | 14.35 | 6.76% | | 2. | 供應鏈及國 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The logistics and express delivery industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with significant growth expected in 2026 due to various factors including price adjustments and market dynamics [1][7]. Key Company Insights JD Logistics - **Revenue Growth**: JD Logistics is projected to achieve over 20% revenue growth in 2026, driven by three main business segments: 1. Recovery of Debon’s business from negative to positive growth. 2. Kuayue Express maintaining a growth rate of around 25%. 3. JD Logistics' own business, which has reached a growth rate of approximately 25% since increasing investments in takeaway and overseas operations [2]. - **Profit Expectations**: The profit for JD Logistics is expected to exceed 8.5 billion yuan in 2026, with profit margins anticipated to recover due to the acceleration of the dual-network integration project and stable profit margins from Kuayue Express [3]. - **Valuation**: The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is below 10, significantly lower than peers like SF Express and ZTO Express, which have PE ratios around 12 to 13. This indicates a potential for valuation recovery given the expected growth [3][4]. Jitu Express - **Overseas Growth**: Jitu Express is expected to maintain high growth in overseas markets, with GMV growth rates doubling. In Southeast Asia, growth is projected to exceed 50%, while in Latin America, it could reach over 70% [5][6]. - **Market Position**: Jitu Express holds over one-third market share in Southeast Asia, providing it with strong pricing power. The current PE ratio is below 15, indicating a mismatch with its high growth potential [6]. Industry Trends - **Price Adjustments**: The express delivery industry is witnessing a significant upward price trend, with recent increases in delivery fees across various regions. This price adjustment is expected to cover over 20% of the total parcel volume [7]. - **Impact on Major Players**: The price increases are anticipated to enhance profitability for leading express companies, with expected annual performance growth of 30% to 50% in 2026. The price adjustments are likely to eliminate some low-cost competitors, further benefiting the market share of leading firms [7]. Additional Insights - The ongoing "anti-involution" price increases are expected to provide substantial profit elasticity, potentially doubling the profit margins compared to previous quarters. This trend, combined with supportive policies for delivery personnel, could lead to significant performance improvements for major express companies [7].