摘要 全球电价中枢因电网投资增加（5%-10%增速）及调节资源成本传导进 入 5 年上行期，户储/工商储渗透率天花板将持续打开。 本轮行情非单纯气价驱动，而是产业趋势在事件催化下的加速，不建议 以天然气价格波动作为主要交易锚。 德业股份区域结构分散（欧洲 30%、亚洲 50%），1Q25 储能逆变器 排产 25-26 万台，业绩环比有望持续提升，26 年估值约 20 倍。 德业股份 26 年核心催化剂包括英国"温暖家园计划"补贴发放（4-5 月）及通过入股希温控切入北美数据中心 SST 研发。 鹏辉能源作为户储电池"铲子股"，1Q26 单位盈利预计升至 0.05 元/Wh 以上，仅户储业务贡献约 10 亿利润，估值 13-15 倍。 户储板块处于景气上行期，估值锚定"边际业绩"（当季 x4），配置顺 序首推德业股份，左侧推荐鹏辉能源。 Q&A 本轮户用储能、工商储能板块的上涨主要由什么因素驱动，当前与 2022 年上 一轮行情的相同点和不同点分别是什么？ 本轮板块波动与上涨的直接诱因，是伊朗相关战事引发天然气价格剧烈波动， 进而带动以天然气机组为边际定价基础的电价预期抬升，市场由此联想到 2022 年俄乌冲突 ...

户储板块更新 20260303 摘要 霍尔木兹海峡扰动对全球天然气需求直接影响约 3%（1,100-1,200 亿 方），量级类比俄乌冲突初期，但天然气价格对边际扰动更敏感，易触 发高幅价格脉冲。 TTF 气价是户储板块核心情绪指标，若气价站稳 60-100 欧元/兆瓦时， 欧洲户储投资回收期可缩短至 3-4 年，带动年增速从 15%-20%上修至 30%-40%。 需求结构发生变化：德国、意大利高位维持，东欧（乌克兰）与英国 （温暖家庭计划）成为新增长极；中东因安全担忧或出现显著的恐慌性 户储配置需求。 新兴市场（东南亚、拉美等）因用电增速快于发电、电力系统不稳及高 电价，户储需求正从欧洲主导转向全球共振，2026 年欧美澳以外市场 占比有望升至四成。 短期排产景气受澳洲补贴加码、乌克兰需求及电池包"抢出口"退税预 期驱动；若 4-5 月订单持续验证，板块估值中枢有望从 20 倍向 25-30 倍重塑。 个股弹性逻辑：德业等龙头估值约 22-25 倍，空间约 25%-30%；爱罗、 固德威、锦浪等因利润率基数低，在营收起量+利润修复双击下弹性可 能更强。 Q&A 在当前欧洲天然气价格两日内同比涨幅约 100 ...

中泰电新：中东战乱对户储的影响 卡塔尔Ras Laffan设施因遭袭击而停产，叠加霍尔木兹海峡的实际封锁，直接引爆了欧洲天然气价格。 两日时间，欧洲天然气价格报62.5欧元/兆瓦时，2日涨超100%。 卡塔尔此次停产的设施年处理能力约为8200万吨，其液化天然气（LNG）出口量约占全球总出口量的 20%，对全 球能源安全影响较大。 卡塔尔LNG的主要流向是亚洲，欧 中泰电新：中东战乱对户储的影响 卡塔尔Ras Laffan设施因遭袭击而停产，叠加霍尔木兹海峡的实际封锁，直接引爆了欧洲天然气价格。 两日时间，欧洲天然气价格报62.5欧元/兆瓦时，2日涨超100%。 低库存使得雪上加霜。 由于上个冬季欧洲库存消耗策略激进，主要经济体的天然气库存远低于往年平均水平 。 德国：3月初库存量仅为库容的27%，而过去几年同期的平均水平为64%。 荷兰：库存仅剩10%，远低于48%的同期平均水平。 全欧平均：库存水平约30%，也显著低于近54%的同期平均水平。 卡塔尔此次停产的设施年处理能力约为8200万吨，其液化天然气（LNG）出口量约占全球总出口量的 20%，对全 球能源安全影响较大。 卡塔尔LNG的主要流向是亚洲，欧 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 事件： 3月2日，欧洲Dutch TTF天然气期货价格大幅上涨39%（2月27日收盘价为32欧元/MWh，3月2日收盘价为 45欧元/MWh）。 欧洲天然气价格与欧洲电价紧密相关，进而与户储需求强关联 复盘2022年俄乌冲突带来的户储行情：2022年2月，欧洲TTF天然气价格约为80欧元/MWh，俄乌冲突发生 后一周内，一度跳涨至接近200欧元/MWh；2022年6月~8月，TTF天然气价格又开启一轮涨价浪潮，从约 80欧元/MWh上涨至最高接近340欧元/MWh。在此过程中，欧洲户储需求景气，国内逆变器对欧出口金额 逐月环增，带动户储板块大涨。 卡塔尔LNG出口被迫停止是此次欧洲天然气价格上涨的主要原因 欧盟的天然气主要依赖进口，分为管道气和LNG，管道气主要来自于挪威、阿尔及利亚和英国；LNG主要 来自于美国、俄罗斯、阿尔及利亚、卡塔尔。根据欧盟数据，25Q3欧盟LNG进口量中，6%来自于卡塔 尔。此次卡塔尔能源公司宣布旗下LNG出口设施因遭受军事袭击被迫停产，对于欧盟的LNG供给有一定冲 击，要应对此缺口，欧盟可通过增加在其他国家的采购实现，但需要一定的时间。 若天然气涨价 ...

证券研究报告 联系电话：021-60199793 2026年3月2日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 目录 | Part1 复盘：光储平价+缺电/电价上涨+政策补贴刺激需求 | | --- | | Part2 澳洲：高户光率+低配储率，补贴驱动需求爆发 | | Part3 欧洲：乌/英/荷为重要增量市场，德国有望复苏 | | Part4 美国：TPO对冲ITC补贴取消，中长期VPP辅助消纳 | | Part5 产业：户储龙头竞争好于预期，出货进入新增长期 | | Part6 投资建议和风险提示 | 2 摘要： 澳洲欧洲引领新增长，多维布局龙头重拾成长 ——海外户储专题 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn ◆ 回顾全球户储各爆发区域，爆发驱动因素在于：1）光储价格下行，全球实现光储平价；2）缺电或电价上涨推动刚需； 3）补贴等政策催化。 ◆ 澳/英/乌/荷多国政策驱动户储爆发，行业持续增长可期：1）澳洲：高户光率+低配储率，补贴驱动需求爆发。澳洲 户光渗透率/存量户光配储率分别为39%/10%，澳洲政府25H1推出23亿澳元 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the diversification of the global residential energy storage market by 2025, with steady growth in demand from Europe and North America, and a significant explosion of demand in emerging markets. The market drivers have evolved from being primarily influenced by the energy crisis and high price arbitrage to a multi-faceted approach involving electricity prices, policies, and energy structure adjustments [2][5]. - By 2025, global residential energy storage system shipments are expected to reach 40 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.88%. By 2030, this figure is projected to increase to 180 GWh [5][6]. - The global wholesale electricity prices will enter a "differentiated equilibrium" phase by 2025, influenced by the competition between renewable energy transition and fossil fuel costs. This will lead to varying price fluctuations across different regions [3][5]. Group 2 - The distribution of the residential energy storage market in 2025 will show a dual-driven pattern, with mature markets maintaining their share and emerging markets experiencing rapid growth. Europe will continue to dominate the market, accounting for nearly half of the global share, with Germany leading at 32% [8][10]. - The trend towards larger residential energy storage systems is evident, with 10-20 kWh systems becoming the global mainstream, driven by different regional demands. In 2025, systems in the 10-20 kWh range will account for 43% of the market [11][13]. - The competitive landscape of the residential energy storage market will feature a "dual leader" scenario, with Tesla and Huawei leading the market. Tesla's Powerwall 3 has become a benchmark product, capturing nearly 25% of the global market [13][16]. Group 3 - In the battery market for residential energy storage, Chinese companies dominate, with a "one strong, two strong" competitive landscape. The top three companies hold a combined market share of 65.5% [17][19]. - By 2026, the global residential energy storage market is expected to show clear differentiation, with mature markets slowing down and emerging markets entering a phase of rapid growth. The competition structure will solidify into three tiers [20][22]. - The product landscape will see a shift towards larger capacity systems (20-30 kWh) and modular designs, enhancing installation convenience and space utilization. The integration of solar, storage, and charging functionalities will become more prevalent [21][22].

【浙商电新】固德威：澳洲户储需求火爆，在国内探索AI+能源应用 #澳洲户储补贴加码；公司是澳洲户储核心受益标的。 澳大利亚推出72亿澳元户用电池补贴计划，引爆户储需求。 5月1日后，14kWh以下才可拿到全额补贴，补贴按照功率段阶梯式递减。 我们认为5月1日前会存在大容量户储系统抢装，且退税减少也可能对备货需求产生刺激。 固德威在澳洲市场深耕多年，20 【浙商电新】固德威：澳洲户储需求火爆，在国内探索AI+能源应用 #澳洲户储补贴加码；公司是澳洲户储核心受益标的。 澳大利亚推出72亿澳元户用电池补贴计划，引爆户储需求。 5月1日后，14kWh以下才可拿到全额补贴，补贴按照功率段阶梯式递减。 我们认为5月1日前会存在大容量户储系统抢装，且退税减少也可能对备货需求产生刺激。 固德威在澳洲市场深耕多年，2015年设立澳大利亚子公司，在澳洲市占率居于前列，澳洲市场需求向上弹性极 大。 #英国发布150亿英镑热泵户储补贴计划；公司热泵和户储产品有望受益。 英国政府发布《温暖家园计划》（WHP），将在2026-2030年投入150亿英镑的公共资金，通过补贴和低息贷款， 用于高达500万户家庭的升级，使家庭安装热泵、光伏和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark [4]. Core Insights - The UK has launched the "Warm Homes Plan," committing £15 billion in public funds to retrofit 5 million homes and assist 1 million families in energy poverty by 2030. This plan is expected to significantly boost demand for residential solar storage and heat pumps [1]. - The plan allocates £2.7 billion for subsidies and £2 billion for low-interest loans to support the purchase of residential solar storage and heat pump systems, alongside £5 billion for assistance to low-income households and £1 billion for heating network investments [1]. - The anticipated growth in the residential solar storage and heat pump sectors is substantial, with projections of 3 million new solar installations and over 450,000 heat pumps installed annually from 2026 to 2030 [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Residential Solar PV - By the end of 2025, the UK is expected to have a cumulative installation of 1.6 million residential solar PV systems, with less than 200,000 new installations in 2025. The "Warm Homes Plan" aims for an additional 3 million installations from 2026 to 2030, translating to an annual increase of 600,000 installations [2]. Residential Energy Storage - In 2025, the UK is projected to add 0.7 GWh of residential energy storage, equivalent to 70,000 units based on a 10 kWh per unit calculation. If 600,000 new solar PV systems are installed annually, with a storage integration rate of 50%, this would result in 300,000 new storage units each year, potentially increasing to 600,000 units if the integration rate reaches 100% [2]. Heat Pumps - The report indicates that approximately 60,000 heat pumps will be installed in 2024. The "Warm Homes Plan" targets an average annual installation of over 450,000 heat pumps from 2026 to 2030, representing a significant increase compared to 2024 [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the European and Australian residential storage markets, such as Airo Energy, GoodWe, Jinlang Technology, and Pylontech. It also highlights the potential for valuation increases in the residential storage sector and recommends low-valuation leading companies like Deye Technology [3]. Additionally, it advises attention to companies in the heat pump sector, such as Rujing Technology, and battery cell manufacturers like Penghui Energy, which may see improved profitability with unexpected demand increases [3].

Core Viewpoint - The global home energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted shipment of 27.8 GWh in 2024, representing a 19% year-on-year increase, and expected to reach 180 GWh by 2030, a growth of 547% compared to 2024 [2][33]. Global Market Characteristics and Driving Factors - Europe is the largest market for home energy storage, with a shipment of 13 GWh in 2024, but it faces a 10% decline due to falling electricity prices and reduced subsidies [4][27]. - The United States is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected shipment of 3.5 GWh in 2024, up 48% year-on-year, driven by tax incentives and rising electricity prices [7][29]. - Ukraine is emerging as the fastest-growing market, with a shipment of 2.5 GWh in 2024, expected to see a growth rate exceeding 300% [8][29]. - Japan's home storage market is also growing, with a forecasted shipment of 2 GWh in 2024, up 38% year-on-year, supported by substantial government subsidies [9][10]. - Australia is expected to ship 1.5 GWh in 2024, with a growth rate of over 20%, driven by federal and state subsidies [11][12]. - Africa's market is projected to reach 1.2 GWh in 2024, with South Africa leading and Nigeria emerging as a significant player [13][14]. Demand-Driven Core Factors - In Ukraine, over 60% of power plants have been damaged, leading to a surge in demand for home energy storage systems due to prolonged power outages and rising electricity prices [8][9]. - In Japan, the expiration of feed-in tariff contracts is driving households to adopt self-consumption models with storage systems [9][10]. - In Australia, federal subsidies are set to support over 1 million households by 2030, enhancing the economic viability of home storage systems [12][29]. Global Home Energy Storage Supply and Competitive Landscape - In 2024, China is expected to dominate the global market with a shipment of 21 GWh, accounting for 75% of total shipments, with major players including Huawei and BYD [16][29]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by significant players such as Huawei Digital Energy, BYD, and Tesla, with Huawei leading the market with a 21.6% share [29][33]. Policy Support for Home Energy Storage Industry - Various countries are implementing supportive policies for renewable energy and home storage systems, creating a favorable environment for industry growth [34][36]. - The European Union's "REPowerEU" plan aims to expand solar energy capacity, while the U.S. has extended tax credits for storage systems [17][34]. Emerging Market Growth - Regions like Southeast Asia, South Africa, and Ukraine are witnessing explosive demand for home storage systems due to unstable power grids and high electricity prices [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hekang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting strong operational performance and effective management strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 4.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 163.06% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 71.1837 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 732.83% [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 251 million yuan, indicating healthy cash flow management [1]. Business Development - The company expanded its household photovoltaic EPC business from 15 to 22 provinces, with a cumulative grid-connected capacity exceeding 3GW as of June 30, 2025 [2]. - The company launched a new range of photovoltaic grid-connected inverters with power ratings between 20KW and 40KW, covering approximately 70% of the market application scenarios for household grid-connected inverters [2]. R&D and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on product research and market capability development in the household energy storage sector, with a robust order reserve situation supporting future growth [2]. - The company’s production base for energy storage in Anqing commenced operations on June 25, 2025, ensuring sufficient capacity for order fulfillment [2]. Industry Positioning - In the high-voltage frequency converter business, the company is leveraging national policies for equipment upgrades and domestic substitution, leading to a significant increase in project orders [3]. - The company signed a joint development agreement with China National Nuclear Corporation for a nuclear power intelligent high-voltage frequency conversion system [3]. - The company is actively exploring overseas markets in South America and Southeast Asia, focusing on industries such as HVAC, mining, and cement [3].