| LPG早报 | 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/10 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | 华东液化 | 丙烷CFR华 | 丙烷CIF日 | MB丙烷 | CP预测合 | 纸面进口 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 山东液化气 | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 主力基差 | 气 | 南 | 本 | 现货 | 同价 | 利润 | 2025/07/0 | 4670 | 4547 | 4600 | 570 | 518 | 73 | 558 | 5190 | 7950 | -30 | 429 | | | 3 | 2025/07/0 | 4660 | 4529 | 4590 | 575 ...

| Miller >国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月09日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价上行，SC08合约涨1.76%。美国EIA库存超预期增加712.8万桶，OPEC+延续快速增产策略强化年内 特别是四季度的供需宽松预期。但从三季度时间窗口来看，一方面石油旺季消费对原油实货采购构成支撑，欧 洲柴油的供应犹动引发炼化利润修复预期;另一方面,已被延期至8月1日执行的美国对等关税最终博弈结构大 概率弱于4月初水平。围绕伊核争端的中东地缘风险亦未彻底消除，我们对三季度 ...

美国财政部授权（与美方制裁相关的）通用许可证，至9月5日都可以在委内瑞拉卸载液化石油气 （LPG）货物。 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 | | 本周，沙特阿美7月CP出台，超预期下跌，丙烷575美元/吨（-25），丁烷545美元/吨（-25），进口成本大幅下 | | --- | --- | | | 调。国产方面，周商品量变化较小，液化气总商品量53.8万吨，小幅缩减0.06%；其中，民用气商品量22.96万吨 | | 供应 | （-0.39%），醚后商品量16.33万吨（-0.55%）。当前，国内液化气商品量处于历史中位水平。进口方面，本周国 | | | 际船到港量49.9万吨（-1 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 (原油) 隔夜国际油价上行，布伦特09合约涨2.78%。伊朗总统批准该国暂停与国际原子能机构的合作，围 绕伊核问题的中东地缘风险再度升温，7月9日到期日前美国与越南达成贸易协议亦令贸易战风险弱 化。原油供需面宽松主题延续，上周美国EIA原油库存超预期增加384.5万桶，汽油表需低于预期水 平,旺季因素亦难扭转OPEC+快速增产预期之下的全球石油累库趋势。关注宏观及她缘利多因素的 发酵空间，原油供需指引仍偏负面。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡。本周鲍威尔讲话重申在经济依然稳健的情况下美联储选择保持耐心，下一步 行动将完全取决于数据表现。昨晚美国ADP就业人数减少3.3万人录得2023年3月以来最大降幅，市 场降息预期升温，聚焦非农数据对就业的验证，因美国独立纪念日该数据将于今晚公布。 （铜） 隔夜美盘铜价高位领涨，伦铜收在1万美元以上。美国ADP私人就业人数意外下降，市场继续交易7 月降息概率。特朗普表示与越南完成20%出口关税、对转口征收40%出口关税的协议,威胁对日高关 税。沪铜关注现价跟调力度与现货升贴水。技术上，短线沪 ...

Core Insights - In the first five months of 2025, the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) production in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region reached 362,000 tons, representing a decline of 16.8% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 23.2 percentage points lower than that of 2024 and 14.6 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - In May 2025 alone, the LPG production in Ningxia was 83,000 tons, showing an increase of 3.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate 10.8 percentage points higher than that of 2024 and also 10.8 percentage points higher than the national average for that month [2] Summary by Category Production Analysis - The cumulative LPG production in Ningxia for the first five months of 2025 was 362,000 tons, which is 1.7% of the national total LPG production of 21.9 million tons [1] - The LPG production in May 2025 was 83,000 tons, accounting for 2.0% of the national total LPG production of 4.248 million tons for that month [2] Year-on-Year Comparison - The first five months of 2025 saw a significant decline in LPG production in Ningxia compared to the same period in 2024, with a decrease of 16.8% [1] - In contrast, May 2025 experienced a year-on-year increase in LPG production of 3.8%, indicating a positive trend for that specific month [2]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：短期宽幅震荡 ◆ 我们的逻辑：6月21日-27日，国际液化气市场受中东地缘政治影响大幅波动，先涨后跌，重心下移，AFEI丙烷指数周 内下跌53.3美元/吨至538.25美元/吨。国内市场同样呈现先扬后抑的格局，前期原油上涨起到短暂的成本支撑，周后期 伴随地缘局势缓和以及需求疲软走跌。然而，地区成交重心分化，山东、华南民用气价格重心有所上移；山东醚后碳四 ...

据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前4个月，陕西省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量累计达到了38.4万 吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了16.7%，增速较2024年同期高44.3个百分点，增速较同期全国高 17.7个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业液化石油气产量1765.3万吨的比重为2.2%。 摘要：【图】2025年4月陕西省液化石油气产量统计分析 2025年1-4月液化石油气产量分析： 图表：陕西省液化石油气产量分月（当月值）统计 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 图表：陕西省液化石油气产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年4月液化石油气产量分析： 单独看2025年4月份，陕西省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量达到了10.5万吨，与2024年同期的数据 相比，4月份的产量增长了28.7%，增速较2024年同期高56.3个百分点，增速较同期全国高28.7个百分 点，约占同期全国规模以上企业液化石油气产量408.4万吨的比重为2.6%。 石油化工行业最新动态 石油的现状和发展趋势 化工行业现状与发展趋势 日化市场现状及 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dorian LPG has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the correlation between changes in earnings estimates and stock price movements, suggesting that revisions in earnings estimates can lead to significant price changes [4][6]. - The recent upgrade reflects an improvement in Dorian LPG's underlying business, which is expected to drive the stock price higher as investors respond positively to the earnings outlook [5][10]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending March 2026, Dorian LPG is projected to earn $2.95 per share, consistent with the previous year's figure [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dorian LPG has increased by 23.4%, indicating a strong upward trend in earnings expectations [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system categorizes stocks based on earnings estimate revisions, with only the top 5% receiving a "Strong Buy" rating, highlighting Dorian LPG's strong position in this regard [9][10]. - Historically, Zacks Rank 1 stocks have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988, underscoring the effectiveness of the rating system in identifying high-potential investments [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Dorian LPG, and emphasizes the importance of using these recommendations in conjunction with other analytical tools like the Zacks Rank for making informed investment decisions [1][5][14]. Brokerage Recommendations - Dorian LPG has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.00, indicating a Strong Buy, based on recommendations from three brokerage firms, all of which are Strong Buy [2][15]. - The article highlights that brokerage recommendations may not be reliable indicators of stock performance due to analysts' biases stemming from their firms' vested interests [6][10]. Zacks Rank - The Zacks Rank is presented as a more reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, with Dorian LPG currently holding a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to a 23.4% increase in the earnings consensus estimate over the past month [8][14]. - The Zacks Rank is based on earnings estimate revisions, which are shown to correlate strongly with stock price movements, contrasting with the ABR that may not be timely [11][13]. Investment Implications - The growing optimism among analysts regarding Dorian LPG's earnings prospects, reflected in the upward revisions of EPS estimates, suggests potential for stock price appreciation [14][15]. - While the ABR suggests a Buy for Dorian LPG, it is recommended to validate this with the Zacks Rank for a more comprehensive investment decision [5][8].