（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 7月30日，三大股指低开，沪指跌0.04％，深成指跌0.23％，创业板跌0.45％。石化ETF（159731） 高开高走涨超0.8%，持仓股华鲁恒升、云天化、万华化学等领涨。 兴业证券表示，5月以来行业轮动强度持续收敛，近期收敛仍在继续，"科技成长产业趋势"与"低估 值周期修复"两条主线正在凝聚市场共识。一方面，今年中报景气线索较为明朗，业绩高增的行业主要 集中在AI和资源品；另一方面，两融资金连续五周流入超百亿，流入科技成长为主，积极参与周期行 情。 石化ETF（159731）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，按照申万二级行业来看，其前三大行业分别为炼 化及贸易（28.9%）、化学制品（22.8%）、和农化制品（19.1%），有望充分受益于反内卷、调结构和 淘汰落后产能等政策。 每日经济新闻 ...

2025 年 7 月 30 日 晨会速递 总量研究 【策略】市场或继续震荡上行——2025 年 8 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 2025 年 8 月 A 股金股组合：东方财富、海南华铁、华友钴业、中国石油、争光股份、 杭叉集团、海尔智家、科大讯飞、中芯国际、新易盛。 2025 年 8 月港股金股组合： 中国人寿、新华保险、香港交易所、腾讯控股、中芯国际、华虹半导体、地平线机器 人-W、美图公司、心动公司、阿里巴巴-W。 行业研究 【互联网传媒】美股 AI 算力需求火热，如何看待下游 AI 应用产业趋势？——海外 AI 行业跟踪报告(买入) 受大模型成本降低等因素驱动，美股 AI 算力需求向下沉市场和新兴市场扩展，主权 AI 算力市场空间广阔。短期来看，IT 运维/网络安全/数据库等领域直接受益于 AI 算 力需求增长，相比下游 AI 应用公司价值链条较短、确定性较强。长期来看，宽松的 融资环境有利于企业加大 AI 投入和 IT 预算，特朗普政府倾向于放松科技监管，AI 算 力和下游 AI 应用的需求有望持续。 【房地产】近期地产跑赢大市，优质龙头涨幅明显——光大地产板块及重点公司跟踪 报告(增持) 2025 ...

今年3月，大连市人民政府办公厅印发《关于推动大连市建设东北亚大宗商品资源配置基地三年行动方 案（2025—2027年）》（下称《方案》），旨在结合大连产业、区位优势和大宗商品贸易发展实际，力 争将大连打造成东北亚大宗商品资源配置基地。据期货日报记者观察，大连期货市场与实体经济的深度 融合，正为这一战略目标注入强劲动能。 7月的辽宁大连港，远洋货轮往来穿梭，一派繁忙景象，彰显着这座港口城市的贸易活力。这背后，是 大连市建设东北亚大宗商品资源配置基地的雄心与实践。 区位产业优势充足 此外，国企在授信、资金方面具有优势，且大宗商品交易与粮食安全、能源安全紧密相关，所以《方 案》鼓励和培育大连市国企开展大宗商品贸易，支持国企与头部大宗商品贸易企业设立合资公司，借助 其专业化团队开展大宗商品期现联动业务。 筑实资源配置基石 大连既沿海又沿边，具有得天独厚的区位优势，坐拥终年不冻的天然深水良港和密集的陆地交通网络。 海陆联运、贯穿南北、横跨亚欧的交通网络在此形成，让大豆、铁矿石等大宗商品在此高效集散，成为 东北亚物流版图的关键节点。 "作为东北亚航运枢纽，大连拥有百余条国际航线、40万吨级深水泊位和全年不冻的优势，在石化 ...

证券研究报告 大炼化周报：长丝、短纤价格走弱 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月27日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2526元/吨，环比+45元/吨（环比+2%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1098元/吨，环比-12元/吨（环比-1%）。 ◼ 【聚酯 板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6579/6814/7804元/吨，环比分别-25/-18/-75元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为-155/-264/-205元/吨，环比分别-76/-71/-109元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 15.5/20.3/28.1天，环比分别-9.9/-5.3/-2.6天，长丝开工率为92.7%，环比+0.5pct。下游方面，本周织机开工率 为55.6%，环比-0.2pct，织造企业原料 ...

Group 1 - Liu Pharmaceutical Group plans to repurchase shares worth between 100 million and 200 million yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 25.70 yuan per share [1] - Dongshan Precision intends to invest up to 1 billion USD to build a high-end printed circuit board project to meet the long-term demand for high-end printed circuit boards in emerging scenarios such as AI [1] - Bomaike reported a net profit of 12.39 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 80.42% [2] Group 2 - Western Mining achieved a net profit of 1.869 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 15% [2] - Fuliwang expects a net loss of approximately 17 million yuan for the first half of the year, a decrease of 137.12% compared to the same period last year [2] - Digital Certification anticipates a net loss of between 80 million and 96 million yuan for the first half of the year, compared to a loss of 29.25 million yuan in the same period last year [3] Group 3 - Shanghai Construction reported a net profit of 710 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 14.04% [5] - Funneng Co. achieved a net profit of 1.337 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 12.48% [6] - Tengda Construction's total contract amount for the first half of the year decreased by 17.55% year-on-year [7] Group 4 - Fudan Fuhua decided to terminate the public transfer of a 28% stake in a subsidiary due to the lack of a deposit from potential buyers [9] - Fulei Ant's subsidiary has decided to cease operations due to intense competition in the photovoltaic industry and ongoing losses [11] - Dongfang Ocean's subsidiary received a medical device registration certificate for a folic acid testing kit [14] Group 5 - Huayu Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received overseas listing approvals for several products [16] - Feima International received a performance commitment compensation of 437 million yuan from its controlling shareholder [16] - Guangshen Railway signed a cooperation agreement for the Guangzhou East Station renovation project with a total investment of approximately 16.66 billion yuan [16] Group 6 - Anhui Construction won the bid for the S68 Jingde to Jixi Expressway project with an estimated total investment of 5.7 billion yuan [18] - China Communications Construction Company signed new contracts worth 991.054 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.14% [19] - Kehui Co. plans to use up to 70 million yuan of idle funds for cash management [22] Group 7 - Biological Shares' subsidiary received a clinical trial approval for a cat mRNA vaccine, the first of its kind in China [23] - Ruipu Biological received a clinical trial approval for a pig mRNA vaccine, which is the first economic animal mRNA vaccine in China [24] - Nanjing New Hundred's major assets were judicially frozen due to liquidity debt crisis faced by its controlling shareholder [27] Group 8 - Changshu Bank plans to merge three village banks and establish branches, pending shareholder approval [28] - Yong'an Pharmaceutical plans to reduce its holdings by up to 2.6323 million shares [29] - Zhujiang Co. received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for a stock issuance to specific targets [31] Group 9 - Sanyangma's subsidiary signed a 120 million yuan procurement contract for sensor products [33] - Jintou City Development plans to purchase a villa property for approximately 7.1854 million yuan [35] - Yuanli Co. intends to acquire 100% of Tongsheng Co. through a combination of cash and stock issuance [36] Group 10 - Xin'an Century's controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 2.22% of the company's shares [36] - Fute Technology plans to raise up to 528 million yuan through a private placement for various projects [36] - Helen Piano's actual controller is set to change, with stock resuming trading [37] Group 11 - Weiergao expects a net profit increase of 12.55% to 30.87% for the first half of the year [38] - Saiwei Microelectronics plans to transfer up to 18% of its shares through an agreement [40] - Yongli Co. intends to acquire a 22.75% stake in a subsidiary [42] Group 12 - ST Xiachuang plans to publicly transfer a 20% stake in Guangdong Yuweiji [43] - Dema Technology's shareholders plan to transfer 778.84 million shares through an inquiry [45] - Zhongshi Technology's shareholders plan to reduce holdings by up to 2.86% of the company's shares [46] Group 13 - Wufang Optoelectronics' controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 0.93% of the company's shares [48] - Fusenmei's chairman has been detained, temporarily unable to fulfill his duties [49] - Reliable Co.'s shareholders plan to reduce holdings by a total of up to 2.63% of the company's shares [51] Group 14 - Gao Neng Environment plans to repurchase shares worth between 100 million and 150 million yuan [53]

策略对话石化：石化反内卷行情展望 20250724 摘要 中国石化行业正经历供给侧收缩，国家政策收紧乙烯项目审批，并通过 产能置换限制新建炼油产能，旨在淘汰落后产能并鼓励新技术应用，类 似于 OPEC 减产对原油市场的影响。 新能源汽车和天然气重卡的发展导致汽柴油需求出现拐点，加剧了石化 行业的供需矛盾，美国对山东港口的制裁也影响了当地炼厂的开工率， 目前约为 50%。 石化行业终端需求疲弱，化工品价格难以有效传导至下游消费市场，导 致石化产品毛利率接近历史低位（约 20%），炼化企业和下游化工企业 的盈利能力均受到影响。 传统石化企业如华锦股份、中石化、上海石化等，盈利能力相对稳定， 其中华锦股份受益于集团沙塔美炼化项目，具备竞争优势，目前 PB 估 值约为 0.7 倍。 民营炼化企业如恒力、荣盛、东方盛虹和恒逸中，恒力表现突出，即使 在当前市场环境下年净利润也能达到 60 亿以上，PB 估值约为 1.7 倍， 市场景气回升时业绩弹性更大。 Q&A 当前石化行业的边际变化和相关政策有哪些？ 石化行业在过去几年中经历了一些重要的政策变化。2021 年，国家出台了碳 中和、碳达峰的相关政策，要求到 2025 年 ...

数据，作为新时代的"石油"，重要性日益凸显。 前不久，中国石油在京发布了3000亿参数昆仑大模型。作为能源化工领域首个通过国家备案的行业大模 型，一亮相，便引起行业关注。该大模型已全面覆盖油气勘探开发、炼油化工、战略支持产业链、资本 金融等领域场景建设，并在实效赋能上展现出强大力量：让地震解释工作效率提高9倍，将勘探项目周 期缩短20%以上，把炼化工艺技术人员的劳动强度降低30%…… 数字化、智能化驱动的生产力，其效率让人感到不可思议。 据介绍，中国石油将数智化作为建设世界一流能源公司的核心抓手。目前已将"数智石油"纳入集团公司 战略体系，制定发布"数智中国石油"总体规划，布局实施信息化补强、数字化赋能、智能化发展"三大 工程"。并成立昆仑数智公司、中石油（北京）数智研究院等数智化支持单位，用于推动从经营管理、 生产运营到日常办公管理的全面数智化升级。 3000亿参数昆仑大模型成果正式发布。本文图片均由中国石油提供 作为老牌央企、传统行业代表，中国石油是如何在数智化浪潮机遇中实现生产力转型升级的？智通财经 （www.thepaper.cn）记者近日走访其数智化团队，以解开企业顺利实现工具跃升的密钥。 传统老油 ...

Group 1: Equipment Manufacturing Industry - The equipment manufacturing industry has shown robust growth in the first half of 2025, with industrial added value increasing by 10.2%, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate by 3.8 percentage points [5][6] - Key sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing saw a significant increase of 16.6% in industrial added value [5] - The production of advanced technologies like 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and service robots has also experienced notable growth [5] Group 2: Energy and Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The report anticipates a recovery in trade, particularly benefiting the petrochemical sector, which has been undervalued [11] - The domestic consumption recovery is expected to favor companies with cost advantages in the oil and gas sector, such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [12] - Metal prices are projected to rebound, with aluminum prices expected to rise, benefiting companies rich in mineral resources like Tianshan Aluminum [12] Group 3: Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3582.30, a slight increase of 0.01% [17][24] - The market experienced significant capital outflows, with net outflows exceeding 217 billion yuan, indicating increased selling pressure [17] - The healthcare and insurance sectors performed well, with the healthcare services sector rising by 1.62% [22]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" trend in various traditional industries including coal, oil, petrochemicals, steel, and construction materials, with a focus on the implications for investment strategies in these sectors [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Market Sentiment**: - Public funds are underweight in traditional sectors like coal and steel, while electricity equipment has seen a decrease in overweight positions. The "anti-involution" sectors have clean chips and potential for recovery [1][2]. - The market is currently characterized by high risk tolerance and sensitivity to favorable policies, supported by state-owned capital operations [3][4]. 2. **Policy Concerns**: - The main concern in the market is insufficient funding support, with the current "anti-involution" trend resembling a contractionary policy that may lead to a bottoming effect rather than a reversal [4][5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to implement growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and petrochemicals, aimed at structural adjustments and phasing out outdated capacity [5][6]. 3. **Investment Recommendations**: - There is a suggestion to increase allocations in the chemical sector, particularly in leading companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Hengli Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policies [9]. - In the communication sector, AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) is expected to benefit from stricter energy consumption approvals, leading to a healthier market for data centers [11][12]. 4. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - **Chemical Industry**: Lacks clear policy guidance but is seen as a sector with inherent elasticity. Companies like Hualu Hengsheng could see significant profit increases if the overall industry profitability improves [9][10]. - **Steel Industry**: The steel sector is experiencing a significant shift due to overcapacity and poor profitability. The current utilization rate is around 86%, with expectations for policy-driven changes to improve the situation [16][18]. - **Aluminum and Nonferrous Metals**: The aluminum sector is facing overcapacity issues, while copper and lead smelting are under pressure due to low utilization rates. The industry is expected to stabilize as supply-side reforms take effect [17][18]. 5. **Future Outlook**: - The public utility sector is anticipated to see an upward trend in electricity prices due to rising costs and the need for price adjustments after years of suppression [19]. - The coal and construction materials sectors are not expected to see a significant upgrade in supply-side reforms, but some contraction is likely, with coal prices showing signs of recovery due to increased demand [20][21]. Other Important Insights - The "anti-involution" policies are seen as a necessary response to the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector, which has been struggling with overcapacity and low profitability [7]. - The chemical sector is highlighted as having potential for growth despite the lack of clear policy direction, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their market position and resilience [9][10]. - The conference emphasizes the importance of identifying sectors and companies that can benefit from both policy support and fundamental improvements in the current economic landscape [6][8].

央视网消息（焦点访谈）：7月23日上午，国务院新闻办公室举行海南自贸港建设新闻发布会，正式宣布海南自贸港全岛封关运作将于今年年底启动。 作为海南自贸港建设中的关键一步，这意味着海南岛全岛将建设成为一个海关监管特殊区域，实施高水平贸易自由化便利化等政策制度。从2020年海南自贸 港建设启动，到如今"'一线'放开、'二线'管住、岛内自由"的封关模式进入冲刺阶段，封关运作的背后，有着怎样的制度创新？又将给海南乃至全国带来什 么？ 夏日的海南，阵阵椰风里涌动着蓬勃生机，海南这座美丽的海岛，将迎来更高水平的开放举措——全岛封关。那么，什么是全岛封关？所谓全岛封关， 是要构建"'一线'放开、'二线'管住、岛内自由"的特殊管理模式。具体来说，就是在海南自由贸易港与我国关境外其他国家和地区之间设立"一线"，实施一 系列的开放举措，"零关税"商品便利进出；在海南自由贸易港与内地之间设立"二线"，实施精准管理，为广阔的内地市场筑牢安全屏障；而在海南自由贸易 港内，"零关税"货物及其加工制成品不设存储期限、可自由选择存放地，企业在低干预、高效能的监管下舒展地生长。 这种有机统一的制度设计，既释放了开放活力，又兼顾了安全底线，让海南 ...