Core Viewpoint - The EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) for August shows a slight month-on-month increase of 1.0 points, indicating a stabilization in economic activity despite remaining at a historically low level of 47.8, the lowest for August since 2014 [1][6][8]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The EPMI increased by 1.0 points in August, aligning closely with the seasonal average increase of 1.1 points [7]. - The absolute index value of 47.8 is 1.0 points lower than the same month last year, marking the lowest level recorded for August since data collection began in 2014 [8][9]. Demand and Production Indicators - Demand indicators showed slight improvement, with product orders and export orders rising by 2.5 and 2.8 points respectively, while production indicators fell by 0.3 points [10]. - The production-to-order ratio turned negative at -0.6, indicating a better alignment between supply and demand [10]. - Supply contraction led to price increases, with purchase prices rising by 5.3 points and sales prices by 1.5 points [12]. - The difficulty of obtaining loans in emerging industries increased by 2.6 points, reflecting a tightening financing environment [12]. Sector Performance - The sectors of new energy and energy conservation are leading in terms of absolute economic performance, with significant price increases in the new energy vehicle, new energy, and biological industries [14]. - In August, new energy and energy conservation were the only two sectors in the expansion zone, likely influenced by accelerated fiscal funding and seasonal factors [14]. - Price increases in the new energy vehicle sector were notable, with sales prices rising by 4.6 points, indicating effective price management in larger enterprises [14][17]. High-Frequency Data Insights - High-frequency data from early to mid-August showed resilience in exports, production constraints, and strong pricing [18]. - Traditional industries experienced a decline in operating rates due to "anti-involution" effects, with specific declines noted in the automotive tire sector [18]. - Overall, manufacturing PMI is expected to show little change compared to July [18].

Group 1 - The core industries in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board are characterized by hard technology, with the electronic core industry (44.07%), biopharmaceutical industry (15.92%), and intelligent manufacturing equipment industry (9.15%) being the top three by market capitalization [1] - The demand for high-performance computing is resonating with the penetration of AI from the cloud to the edge, leading to an accelerated price increase in DDR4 and triggering a server upgrade cycle [1] - The innovative drug industry is expected to achieve breakthroughs through License-out overseas, with a projected transaction scale of $51.9 billion in 2024, indicating a continuous growth trend [1] Group 2 - Revenue growth rates for the electronic core industry, artificial intelligence industry, and biopharmaceutical industry in 2024 are projected to be 17.39%, 28.44%, and 32.36% respectively, with significant profit expectations for the biopharmaceutical industry [1] - The R&D intensity of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board remains stable at around 11%, with total R&D investment expected to reach 154.68 billion yuan in 2024, fostering a virtuous cycle of R&D-driven growth [1] Group 3 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 ETF (588120) tracks the Sci-Tech 100 Index (000698), which can have a daily price fluctuation of up to 20%. This index is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. and includes 100 securities with moderate market capitalization and good liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of outstanding growth enterprises in high-tech and strategic emerging industries [1] - The Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index ETF (589630) tracks the Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index (000680), also allowing for a daily price fluctuation of up to 20%. This index, published by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, selects all eligible listed companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to reflect the overall market performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for strategic emerging industries shows a seasonal decline but has turned positive year-on-year, indicating resilience in industrial prosperity despite a slight month-on-month decrease [1][5][6]. Group 1: PMI Overview - The July EPMI decreased by 1.1 points to 46.8, with only the new materials sector remaining in the expansion zone among seven sub-industries, reflecting a reduction in the number of expanding sectors [1][5][9]. - The absolute prosperity level is 0.7 points higher than the same period last year, marking a transition from negative to positive year-on-year growth [1][8]. Group 2: Sub-Indicators Analysis - In July, production, product orders, and export orders in emerging industries fell by 1.3, 1.5, and 2.2 points respectively, with export orders declining for two consecutive months [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio remained stable at 2.2, fluctuating within a narrow range for five months [2][12]. - Financing conditions improved, with the difficulty of obtaining loans decreasing by 1.4 points in July [2][14]. - A notable positive signal is the stabilization of sales prices, which increased by 1.7 points, while purchase prices continued to decline [2][14]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The new materials sector has shown a continuous increase in prosperity for three months, with a July index above 50, indicating strong performance compared to other sectors [3][17]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and energy-saving environmental protection sectors maintained resilience, while the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors saw a decline in prosperity [3][17]. - Export orders for biotechnology and new energy vehicles fell significantly, by 17.7 and 10.1 points respectively [3][20]. Group 4: Market Implications - The EPMI data suggests a generally positive impact on the market, with the month-on-month decline being anticipated and the year-on-year increase indicating a slope lower than seasonal averages [4][22]. - The shift in key industry sales price indices from decline to increase reflects the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies in stabilizing nominal growth [4][22].

Market Sector - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 1.46% in the first half of 2025, ranking second among various sector indices, outperforming the ChiNext 50, Shenzhen 50, and Shanghai 50 indices [2] - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the total market capitalization of the Sci-Tech Board reached 7.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.27 trillion yuan or 3.72% from the end of Q1 2025, surpassing the market capitalization growth of the Shenzhen main board [4] - The total trading volume of the Sci-Tech Board in the first half of 2025 was 12.57 trillion yuan, with an average trading volume of 213.85 million yuan per stock, lower than the average trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards and ChiNext [7][8] - The average daily turnover rate of the Sci-Tech Board was 2.67% in the first half of 2025, higher than that of the Shanghai main board but lower than that of the Shenzhen main board, ChiNext, and the Beijing Stock Exchange [9] - The price-to-book ratio of the Sci-Tech Board at the end of the first half of 2025 was 4.06 times, higher than that of the ChiNext and Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards [12] - The financing balance of the Sci-Tech Board reached 157.15 billion yuan at the end of the first half of 2025, an increase of 11.85 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [14] - The securities lending balance of the Sci-Tech Board was 0.056 billion yuan at the end of the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.0096 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [16] Individual Stocks - SMIC led with a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion yuan, followed by Haiguang Information, Cambrian-U, and BeiGene-U, with seven companies having market capitalizations exceeding 100 billion yuan [18] - Excluding the significant fluctuations on the first day of new stock listings, Sangfor Technologies had the highest increase at 153.60%, followed by Yifang Bio-U, Aerospace South Lake, and Youfang Technology, with 14 companies also exceeding 100% [19] - SMIC had a financing balance of 7.198 billion yuan, leading the list, followed by Cambrian-U, Haiguang Information, and Zhongwei Company, with 16 companies having financing balances exceeding 1 billion yuan [22] - SMIC also had the highest securities lending balance at 19.7038 million yuan, followed by Haiguang Information, Cambrian-U, and Chip Original Co., with six companies exceeding 10 million yuan [25] Industry Themes - In the first half of 2025, companies listed on the Sci-Tech Board were primarily distributed across three Wind Sci-Tech theme industries, with the new generation information technology industry leading with four companies, followed by high-end equipment manufacturing and biotechnology industries, each with one company [29] - Among the seven companies listed on the Sci-Tech Board in the first half of 2025, six met the first standard for listing, which requires positive net profits for the last two years and a cumulative net profit of no less than 50 million yuan, or a positive net profit for the last year with revenue of no less than 100 million yuan, and an expected market capitalization of no less than 1 billion yuan [31] - The companies listed in the first half of 2025 came from Beijing and Jiangsu (two each), and Hubei, Zhejiang, and Guangdong (one each) [34] - The total IPO financing for Sci-Tech Board companies in the first half of 2025 was 7.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.33%, with three companies raising over 1 billion yuan, three between 500 million to 1 billion yuan, and one below 500 million yuan [37] - Yitang Co. led the IPO financing in the first half of 2025 with 2.497 billion yuan, while Yingshi Innovation and Xingfu Electronics each raised over 1 billion yuan [41]

Core Viewpoint - The 16th Davos Forum highlighted the profound changes in the global economic, political, and security landscape, emphasizing the rise of trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts impacting global supply chains and economic fragmentation [2]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Responses - The disruption of supply chains is a global issue, necessitating China's contribution to stabilizing the entire industrial and supply chain [2]. - China should transform the pressures from trade wars into opportunities for industrial restructuring and upgrading [2]. - The need for traditional industries in China to undergo further transformation and upgrading over the next decade was emphasized [2]. Group 2: Strategic Emerging Industries - Seven major strategic emerging industries must achieve qualitative improvements to gradually dominate global markets, including new-generation information technology, biotechnology, new materials, and new energy vehicles [3]. - Future industries should receive targeted support and guidance, particularly in AI technology and life sciences [4]. Group 3: Global Economic Recovery - Many companies face difficulties in global expansion, which could significantly impact global economic recovery and growth [4]. - The turning point for the global economy may arise from significant setbacks, leading countries to return to correct economic paths [4]. - According to the theory of comparative advantage, countries should leverage their strengths to produce high-quality, cost-effective products, forming a beneficial global supply chain [4].

Group 1 - Shantou City is focusing on an "industrial city, strong industry" development strategy, aiming to enhance investment and project development to boost economic growth [1] - In the first four months of 2025, Shantou has recorded 2,226 registered investment projects with a total investment exceeding 24.8 billion yuan, contributing to high-quality economic development [1][3] Group 2 - The "Three New, Two Special, One Big" industrial development framework is being actively promoted, with significant contributions from the new generation electronic information industry, which has seen an 11.8% increase in industrial added value [2] - The textile and clothing industry remains a strong support, accounting for 26.2% of the industrial added value among large-scale industries [2] Group 3 - In the first four months, the total investment in key industrial projects reached 10.34 billion yuan, with significant progress in new generation information technology and traditional industry upgrades [4] - The second industry, particularly industrial investments, is the main force in registered investment projects, with 1,963 projects and a total investment of 11.72 billion yuan, representing 47.1% of the total investment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing attention on 10 unprofitable companies that are queuing for IPOs, with 9 applying for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and 1 for the Beijing Stock Exchange [1][3] - Among the 10 companies, 6 have been waiting for over 2 years for their IPO applications to be processed, with Guangzhou Bibetter Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. being the longest at nearly 3 years [1][3] - The regulatory environment is becoming more supportive of high-quality unprofitable tech companies seeking to go public, as indicated by recent statements from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [3][5] Group 2 - Out of the 10 companies, 7 are from the biotechnology sector, with 5 applying under the fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][5] - The fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board does not impose revenue requirements but has a market capitalization requirement of at least 4 billion RMB [6][7] - The companies applying under the fifth set of standards include Bibetter, Hengrun Da Sheng, Sizhe Rui, Heyuan Biotechnology, and Beixin Life [7][8] Group 3 - Bibetter has not generated sales revenue as of the end of 2020 and reported a net loss of 188 million RMB in 2022 [4] - Hengrun Da Sheng also has not achieved main business revenue and reported a net loss of 284 million RMB for the fiscal year 2023 [4] - The IPO applications of other companies like Sizhe Rui and Heyuan Biotechnology were also accepted in 2022, indicating a trend of unprofitable companies seeking IPOs [4][5] Group 4 - The regulatory framework for unprofitable companies is still evolving, with a focus on those possessing key technologies and significant market potential [7][8] - The approval criteria for other tech sectors under the fifth set of standards remain unclear, particularly for industries outside of pharmaceuticals and medical devices [8]

Core Viewpoint - The "Innovation and Entrepreneurship Investment Conference" in Shenzhen successfully showcased the integration of technology innovation and capital, promoting collaboration among various stakeholders in the tech industry [1][15]. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference, held on May 23, marked the ninth National Science and Technology Workers Day and featured a model of "results display + industry promotion + capital connection" [1]. - Since its inception in 2020, the conference has attracted 24,864 quality projects across strategic emerging industries such as AI, biomedicine, and new energy vehicles [3]. Group 2: Focus Areas and Achievements - This year's conference focused on five cutting-edge sectors: new generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, green low-carbon & new materials, biomedicine, and digital economy, with over 80% of participating projects from outside Shenzhen [3]. - Notable projects included the "Laser Proton Knife" from Beijing Ruidekang Technology and a "Multimodal 3D Generative AI Model" from Eluo Technology, which were presented through immersive roadshows [3]. Group 3: Collaboration and Support - The conference emphasized collaboration between the China Association for Science and Technology and the Shenzhen Science and Technology Association to enhance support for tech workers [5]. - Local government representatives promoted their regions' industrial positioning and policy advantages, showcasing benchmark projects in the five key sectors [7]. Group 4: Future Plans - The conference announced a 2025 work plan focusing on grassroots empowerment and regional collaboration, aiming to collect 500 quality projects with at least 70% from outside the city [14]. - The Shenzhen Association for Science and Technology and other local organizations will continue to facilitate project matching and provide comprehensive support throughout the project lifecycle [14].

Core Viewpoint - The EPMI for May, which reflects the economic climate of strategic emerging industries, increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, indicating a slight rebound beyond seasonal expectations due to recent financial policies and positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The EPMI's May reading of 51.0 is the third lowest for the same period historically, only better than May 2022 and May 2023 [7]. - The production, product orders, and export orders indices increased by 1.8, 2.9, and 10.8 points respectively, indicating a recovery in demand [2][8]. - The employment index saw a slight increase of 1.1 points, while the investment activities in emerging industries remained cautious, with R&D and new product launches declining by 2.1 and 0.1 points respectively [2][12]. Group 2: Sector Performance - New generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors showed improved performance, largely driven by external demand and domestic policy support [14][15]. - The export orders for high-end equipment rose by 13.2 points, while energy-saving and environmental protection saw a 22.7-point increase, indicating strong sectoral recovery [15]. - Conversely, the biological industry experienced a decline in export orders, continuing a downward trend from April [14][15]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stimulate demand and address market distortions, as indicated by recent statements from the National Development and Reform Commission [15]. - The focus on completing the 'two重' construction project list by the end of June suggests a proactive approach to economic recovery [15].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4 月 EPMI （战略新兴行业 PMI ）环比下行 10.2 个点至 49.4 。从季节性特征看，本月环比降幅为 2014 年有这一数据以来同期最大；绝对景气 水平亦降至同期次低，仅高于 2022 年 4 月。中观景气面同步收缩， 7 大细分行业中 3 个位于景气扩张区间，较 3 月减少 4 个。 第二， 分项指标看，产需均有所下行，出口订单下滑幅度较大。（ 1 ）生产、产品订货、出口订货指标环比分别下行 16.1 、 15.4 和 17.6 个点，出口 订货指标绝对水平降至 40 以下；（ 2 ）生产跟随订单主动收缩，显示企业对需求变化有充分预期。供需关系相对稳定，产需比例为 2.6 ，好于 2023 年 和 2024 年的平均水平；（ 3 ）两大价格指标转降，购进价格和销售价格环比分别下行 4.8 和 4.4 个点；（ 4 ）就业指标环比下行 5.9 个点，单月环比 降幅为 2023 年以来最大，我们此前在报告《风险计提之后：偶发冲回与积极对冲》中指出，目前我国外贸直接和间接带动就业人员数估计在 1 ...