瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.21」 鸡蛋市场周报 产能压力牵制下 期价低位偏弱震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收跌，2601合约收盘价为3184元/500千克，较前一周-51元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：养殖端持续亏损使得补栏积极性下滑且老鸡淘汰量有所增加，蛋鸡存栏小幅回落，市 场氛围略有好转。且现货价格持续偏低，市场补栏积极性欠佳，利好远期价格。不过，蛋鸡在产 存栏仍然处于高位，老鸡尚未出现超淘，高产能仍对市场形成压制。总体而言，市场博弈于弱现 实与强预期之间。本周鸡蛋期价维持低位偏弱震荡，短期或继续处于宽幅震荡状态。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 图2、大商所鸡蛋指数期货前二十名持仓变化 来源：大商所 wind 来源：大商所 ...

目录 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 GALAXYFUTURES 鸡蛋周报：蛋价稳中有落 淘汰有所增加 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价2.8元/斤，较上周五下跌0.12元/斤，主销区均价3.13元/斤，较上周五下跌0.08元/斤。本周主产区价格持续下 ...

黄天鹅可生食鸡蛋领跑市场，四年蝉联高品质销量第一。其全链路管理体系覆盖若干环节、关键点 等，零沙门氏菌检出，不仅安全，还保营养。鸡蛋本是"全营养食物"，蛋黄尤为宝贵。 蛋黄非"胆固醇炸弹"，而是优质蛋白源：翟凤英指，其蛋白质15.2g/100g，高于蛋清11.6g，含全8 种必需氨基酸，利用率98%；富胆碱(680mg/100g)，一蛋黄满足成人日需35%。 高价可生食蛋促生食安全。中国农大朱毅荐"黄金8分钟"水煮：沸后小火8分，灭抗营养因子，留 90%维生素，溏心不氧化。生食防沙门氏菌：选优蛋、冷藏、洗手避污染。黄天鹅零检出，让溏心蛋成 享受。 超市货架上，普通鸡蛋一盒仅需10多元，而"可生食"或"无菌蛋"高端产品往往售价翻倍。消费者疑 惑：同样是鸡蛋，为何价格悬殊？央视"真相来了"报道揭秘："可生食鸡蛋"并非"无菌神话"，而是经严 苛生产流程确保无沙门氏菌，其高价源于全链条品质控制，而非营销噱头。农业农村部研究员朱大洲表 示，这种鸡蛋的核心在于"吃得更放心"，但市场乱象也需消费者擦亮眼睛。 "无菌蛋"虽听起来高端，却常误导消费者。朱大洲在央视采访中直言："鸡蛋完全无菌几乎不可 能，这个名称易让人误以为如罐 ...

安全为先：破解中老年补营养的核心顾虑 与普通鸡蛋相比，黄天鹅可生食鸡蛋在营养保留和食用体验上更具优势。其蛋黄富含天然类胡萝卜 素，不仅色泽鲜亮，更能为中老年人补充必要的抗氧化物质；同时通过科学养殖优化，产品腥味更淡， 口感更细腻，适配中老年人敏感的肠胃和味觉。电商平台数据显示，标注"适合长辈""低腥味""高卵磷 脂"的黄天鹅礼盒装，2024年销量同比增长47%，成为年轻人给父母送礼的热门选择。 消费升级：从"能吃"到"吃得好"的理念转变 如今的年轻人给父母补营养，早已超越"吃饱穿暖"的基础需求，转向"精准、安全、高品质"的进阶 追求。欧赛斯市场调研显示，可生食鸡蛋的消费人群已从精致宝妈扩展到都市银发族及为父母选购的年 轻群体，他们更注重食品的安全标准和品质体验。 在各大电商平台的"中老年营养"专区，可生食鸡蛋的销量持续攀升。从普通鸡蛋到可生食鸡蛋，年 轻人的选择背后，是对父母营养需求的精准洞察和品质消费的升级趋势。 中老年人消化功能减弱，免疫力相对较低，食品安全是营养补充的首要前提。普通鸡蛋存在的沙门 氏菌污染风险，让许多家庭对"溏心蛋""单面煎蛋"等更易保留营养的吃法望而却步。中国食品科学技术 学会指出，传 ...

Report Overview - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The spot market has weakened again this week. The prices of pink eggs in Hubei and Hunan have gradually declined, while the prices of red eggs in the north have remained stable. The market sales have returned to a slow pace. Considering the cooler temperature and better egg storage conditions, there will be no significant price drops as in the rainy season and summer. Egg prices are expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week. [8] - In the futures market, due to the temporary weakness of the spot market, prices have declined this week. The near - term contracts have dropped significantly as they are approaching delivery, while the far - term contracts are relatively firm due to the expectation of a decline in inventory. [8] - Fundamentally, the laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month for the first time in October, indicating that the poor breeding profits have gradually affected the supply side. The monthly replenishment data in the past four months shows that the laying - hen inventory is expected to decline slightly in the medium term. The longer the low - price period in the fourth quarter, the greater the probability and elasticity of a market reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. [8] - In terms of operation, the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The low spot price may continue for some time. Opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, but there may still be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - term and far - term contracts is advisable. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2601, 2602, and 2512 have declined, with decreases of 1.73%, 0.13%, and 0.26% respectively. The average price in the main production areas is 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Treat the market as a low - level fluctuation in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities in far - term contracts on dips, and consider a reverse spread between near - term and far - term contracts. [8] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared to October 2024. [9] - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024. [9][10] 3. Data Overview - **Elimination Volume**: As of November 13, 2025, the national elimination volumes of laying hens in the previous three weeks were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend. [18] - **Elimination Age**: As of November 13, 2025, the average elimination age of laying hens was 493 days, unchanged from the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month. [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg market fluctuated and closed lower. The 2601 contract closed at 3,235 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 56 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Under the pressure of high production capacity, the futures price weakened again recently and may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The egg market fluctuated and closed lower this week. The 2601 contract closed at 3,235 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 56 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The laying - hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market sentiment has improved slightly. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and there has been no excessive culling of old hens. High production capacity remains the main concern of the market. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Recently, under the restraint of high - production - capacity pressure, the futures price has weakened again and may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures contract 1 fluctuated and declined. The position volume was 208,963 lots, an increase of 28,593 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 17,934, compared with - 7,153 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,039 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 38 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active egg contract 1 futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 196 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The egg 1 - 5 spread was reported at - 242 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of November 13, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.89 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.77 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the laying - hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The new - chick index nationwide was reported at 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [39]. - **Culling Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the culled laying - hen index nationwide was reported at 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The average age of culled chickens nationwide was reported at 507 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of November 13, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,259.8 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,020 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of November 7, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.47 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Chickens**: As of November 7, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was reported at 8.06 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In September 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1,631.15 tons compared with 11,584.64 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared with 13,121.03 tons in the previous month [62]. 4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: A figure on the change in price - earnings ratio is provided, but no specific analysis content is available [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, the current laying - hen inventory remains at a high level. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. - Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upward space is expected to be relatively limited. - The recent decline in spot prices indicates that the short - term egg prices are likely to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3265, down 57 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3530, down 13; JD09 closed at 3878, up 8. - **Spread**: 01 - 05 spread was - 265, down 44; 05 - 09 spread was - 348, down 21; 09 - 01 spread was 613, up 65. - **Ratio**: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.03; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.06, down 0.02. Other ratios also had corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.95 yuan per jin, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan per jin, unchanged. Most regions' egg prices remained stable, with only minor fluctuations in some areas. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.97 yuan per jin, down 0.03 yuan from the previous day [2][4][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost and Price**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.97 yuan per jin, down 0.03; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan per chick, up 0.04. The average price of corn was 2260 yuan per ton, up 5; the average price of soybean meal was 3072 yuan per ton, unchanged. - **Profit**: The profit per chicken was 2.51 yuan, down 1.00 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In October, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.359 billion, 10 million less than the previous month, 5.5% higher year - on - year, and lower than expected. The estimated laying - hen inventories from November 2025 to February 2026 are 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively. - **Sales and Production**: From November 06, the weekly egg sales in representative sales areas were 7300 tons, down 4% from the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan per jin, down 0.05 yuan from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, 0.02 days less than the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, 0.04 days less than the previous week [5][6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated supply pressure, but the high laying - hen inventory will lead to a gentle de - capacity speed. The limited upward space of the contract price and the recent decline in spot prices suggest that short - term egg prices are likely to be weak with limited downward space [7]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8].

Core Insights - The rise of raw-eating eggs signifies a shift in consumer preferences towards safety and quality in food consumption [1][2][3] Group 1: Safety Upgrade - Traditional eggs pose a risk of Salmonella contamination, necessitating thorough cooking to mitigate safety concerns [1] - Raw-eating eggs utilize a comprehensive quality control system to address these safety issues, focusing on strict pathogen control rather than achieving absolute sterility [1] - The "Raw-Eating Egg" group standard mandates rigorous requirements across all production stages, with a consumption window of 15 days post-production [1] Group 2: Demand Upgrade - The market for raw-eating eggs in China is projected to reach 8.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 19.4% year-on-year growth, significantly outpacing the 3.2% growth of traditional eggs [2] - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, per capita annual consumption of raw-eating eggs is 5.8 kg, 1.8 times the national average [2] - E-commerce data indicates a 31.7% increase in sales of raw-eating eggs priced above 15 yuan for a pack of 10, highlighting consumer willingness to pay a premium for safety and quality [2] Group 3: Rational Upgrade - There is no significant nutritional difference between raw-eating eggs and traditional eggs, as both provide similar levels of essential nutrients [3] - The primary distinction lies in safety standards and eating experience, with raw-eating eggs offering cleaner shells and better texture for raw consumption [3] - Vulnerable populations, such as infants and the elderly, are advised to consume cooked eggs to minimize health risks, while raw-eating eggs are recommended for those seeking high-quality culinary experiences [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production is still at a high level. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upside space is expected to be relatively limited. The recent decline in spot prices indicates that egg prices are likely to be weak in the short term, but the downside space is also relatively limited [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures prices: JD01 closed at 3322, down 51 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3543, down 34; JD09 closed at 3870, down 11 [2]. - Cross - month spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was - 221, down 17; the 05 - 09 spread was - 327, down 23; the 09 - 01 spread was 548, up 40 [2]. - Price ratios: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.53, down 0.02; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.09, down 0.02. Similar changes were seen in other ratios [2]. 2. Spot Market - Egg prices: The average price in the producing areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the selling areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. - Culled chicken prices: The average price of culled chickens was 4.00 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin [2]. 3. Profit Calculation - Today's profit per chicken was 3.35 yuan, down 1.01 yuan from yesterday. The average price of culled chickens was 4.00 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - laying chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Feed prices: The average price of corn was 2255 yuan, up 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3080 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.50 yuan, unchanged [2]. 4. Fundamental Information - Price trends: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, unchanged. The national mainstream prices were stable or falling [4]. - Laying hen inventory: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and an increase of 5.5% year - on - year. It is estimated that the inventory in November, December, January, and February 2025 will be approximately 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - Culled chicken situation: From November 6th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - Egg sales volume: As of November 6th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7300 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week [6]. - Profit situation: As of November 6th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 31st, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 4.82 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 1.42 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - Inventory situation: As of November 6th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [6]. 5. Trading Logic - The recent increase in culled chickens has alleviated supply pressure, but the high number of laying hens in production means slow short - term de - capacity. The upside space for egg prices is limited due to the premium in the December main contract, and prices are likely to be weak in the short term with limited downside [8]. 6. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions at low levels for the far - month contracts [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the egg market oscillated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 3,219 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 73 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. High production capacity pressure remains, which may limit the rebound space, so it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [6]. - The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. However, the slight rebound in the spot price of eggs may reduce the sentiment for culling old hens again. The inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and high - capacity pressure is still the main concern of the market [6]. - Short - term participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the number of old hens being culled [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, eggs oscillated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 3,219 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 73 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Due to continuous losses in the breeding end, the enthusiasm for replenishment has declined, the number of old hens being culled has increased, and the inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased. But the slight rise in egg spot prices may reduce the culling sentiment. The high inventory of laying hens in production is still a major concern, and high - capacity pressure may limit the rebound space of the futures price [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Participate in the short - term and focus on the number of old hens being culled [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 12 - contract of egg futures oscillated and closed higher. The position was 148,243 lots, a decrease of 28,338 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 7,153, compared with - 8,860 last week, and the net short position slightly decreased [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 6 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,077 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 144 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 12 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 142 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 97 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was generally at a low level in the same period [26]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of November 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.06 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.74 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3. Industry Situation - **Supply - side: Inventory and Replenishment**: As of September 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The national new - chick index was reported at 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [38]. - **Culling Index and Age**: As of September 30, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was reported at 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 507 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of November 6, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,236.47 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,040 yuan per ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of October 31, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.42 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of October 31, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 8.22 yuan per kilogram [55]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In September 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1,631.15 tons compared with 11,584.64 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared with 13,121.03 tons in the previous month [61].