鸡蛋产业日报 2025-08-27 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 力下，期价总体维持偏弱趋势。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 2975 | -38 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -54551 | -3922 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千 ...

卓创资讯鸡蛋市场分析师刘宏 【导语】近几年蛋鸡存栏量逐步攀升，鸡蛋供应基数持续增加，当对外销售路径承压、需求提升不易情况下，压力则会反向作用于供应内部，引起饲养品种转变、大小码价差缩减等养殖端的破局 供应仍处上升周期，鸡蛋市场"量增价减" 根据数据分析，鸡蛋月均价与产蛋鸡存栏量具有中度负相关关系，相关性系数为0.60，即当存栏量逐步增加至高位时，往往对应着价格的走低，反之关系依然成立。从2019-2025年产蛋鸡存栏 供应格局内，粉蛋供应利空程度大于红蛋。根据卓创资讯近八年来的数据监测，2021年饲料成本激增后，养殖单位青睐采食量低的粉鸡饲养，粉鸡饲养量逐年攀升，粉壳鸡蛋产量逐步与褐壳鸡 供应格局内，年内新增产能增加，需求持续提振效应不强，小码鸡蛋节日优势减弱，大小码鸡蛋价差缩减，部分阶段出现负值。正常情况下，大小码价差多在0.20元/斤左右，受节日拉动程度及 单斤鸡蛋利润亏损周期拉长，后市产能拐点或出现，供应内压或小幅缓解。 进入2025年，单斤鸡蛋的饲料成本呈现低位反弹趋势，较去年成本降低1.63%，养殖单位成本压力不大，但年内鸡蛋价格水平降低，导致单斤鸡蛋利润多呈亏损状态，且3季度旺季来临，仍未扭 根据 ...

转自：期货日报 农业农村部数据显示，截至8月22日，28种蔬菜均值为4.8元／斤，较前一周同期上涨0.1元／斤。这主要是因为部分蔬菜陆续进 入季节性退市，整体供给量略有下滑，现货价格环比增加，但同比来看，现货价格依然位于近几年较低位置，蔬菜供给较往年 充裕，一定程度上减弱了鸡蛋的替代需求。 钢联数据显示，2025年7月底，在产蛋鸡存栏量为12.92亿只，环比增加2%，同比增加7%。数据显示，7月鸡苗销量4532万羽， 环比减少4%，同比增加2.7%；晓鸣股份2025年7月销售1992万羽，环比减少18%，同比增加13%。目前种鸡企业鸡苗订单多数排 至9月中上旬，少数排至9月下旬，从企业排单量及补栏情绪来看，预期8月鸡苗销量环比减少。 三季度的新增产能对应的是3月、4月及5月的鸡苗补栏量，而3月、4月及5月是上半年鸡苗补栏的高峰期，且远高于往年同期水 平。因此，三季度新增产能高于往年同期水平，而这部分新增产能在四季度进入产蛋高峰期，预示着四季度在产蛋鸡产能较为 充裕，而6月以来鸡苗补栏环比下滑，预示着10月之后新增产能将环比下滑。整体来看，四季度新增产能虽有所下滑，但在产蛋 鸡整体产能依然处在高位。 截至8月2 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3383 | 3434 | -51 | 01-05 | -99 | -78 | -21 | | JD05 | 3482 | 3512 | -30 | 05-09 | 531 | 592 | -61 | | JD09 | 2951 | 2920 | 31 | 09-01 | -432 | -514 | 82 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.57 | 1.58 | -0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.09 | 1.11 | -0.03 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | ...

数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 力下，期价总体维持偏弱趋势。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3021 | -12 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -54965 | -12313 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500 ...

鸡蛋周报：需求不及预期 蛋价偏弱运行 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 GALAXYFUTURES 1 246/206/207 68/84/105 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周淘汰鸡价格继续回落，周内蛋价跌势较大，养殖端对后市信心受挫，受情绪面影响，养殖端出栏积极性增加， 淘汰鸡价格本周 下跌为主。 鸡蛋主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market continued to decline this week. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Currently, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further increases the supply pressure [8]. - Terminal demand is weak. High - temperature weather makes the market cautious, and demand is sluggish. To reduce inventory, breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end has been in a loss state [8]. - With the start of school - opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. However, due to weak spot prices and high - production capacity pressure, the futures price generally maintains a weak trend [8]. - The strategy recommendation is to participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The egg price continued to decline this week. The 2510 contract closed at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - **Supply Situation**: High laying - hen inventory, large pressure from newly - opened laying hens, and continuous release of cold - storage eggs increase supply pressure [8]. - **Demand Situation**: Terminal demand is weak, and high - temperature weather makes the market cautious. However, demand is expected to improve with school - opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 10 - contract of egg futures continued to decline, with a position of 434,281 lots, an increase of 118,589 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,652, and the net short position increased compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 3 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3057 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 9 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 24 yuan per ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - Month Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 218 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of August 21, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.03 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.89 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%, and the national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [40]. - **Laying - Hen Elimination Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national elimination - laying - hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%, and the national elimination - hen age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2373.53 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3000 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of August 15, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.26 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [55]. - **Laying - Hen Chick and Elimination - Hen Prices**: As of August 15, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination hens was 10.94 yuan per kilogram [60]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared to the previous month [65].

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 程建华 8月21日上午，"产业链上的山东好品牌"菏泽市系列现场新闻发布会走进巨野县乡村振兴产业园，聚焦 当地蛋鸡产业高质量发展。巨野县政府副县长郑义携县农业农村局、畜牧服务中心、大义镇、独山镇及 龙头企业代表，向媒体全景展示了巨野如何将"小鸡蛋"培育成年产值23亿元的"大产业"。 规模领跑全省，2600万只蛋鸡托起"金蛋"经济 郑义在发布会上介绍，巨野县蛋鸡存栏量达2600万只，年产鲜蛋4亿公斤，全产业链产值突破23亿元， 规模与产值稳居全省首位。产品不仅覆盖北京、上海等一线城市，更通过"线上电商+线下商超"渠道辐 射全国。其中，鑫航禽业80万只蛋鸡年产1.5万吨鸡蛋，配套粪污资源化利用系统，年销售收入达1亿 元，成为"一产接二连三"的标杆。 科技赋能全链条，智能化养殖成标配 巨野县农业农村局局长张天栋透露，当地通过"智慧养殖贷"等金融工具，累计为养殖户提供4500万元贴 息贷款；推广8层H型重叠式饲养系统、自动温控设备等，实现喂料、分拣全程自动化。大义镇党委书 记王文启补充，全镇85%以上养殖场完成智能化改造，生产效率提升30%，鸡蛋优质率提高20个百分 点。 筑牢食品安全防线，25批次 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply - side pressure is significant and demand is average, causing price declines. Cold - storage eggs are hitting the market after a previous price rebound, and the current spot price increase is below expectations. It is advisable to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 3.08 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.39 yuan/jin, also down 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price is currently stable [6] - In July, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.356 billion, up 0.016 billion from the previous month and 6.1% year - on - year. The monthly hatch of layer chicks in sample enterprises was 39.98 million, down 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year. The estimated in - lay hen inventory from August to November 2025 is 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 14th, the weekly slaughter volume of layer hens in the main production areas was 14.42 million, up 5% from the previous week. The average slaughter age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 14th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,605 tons, up 1% from the previous week [8] - As of August 7th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, down 0.17 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.03 days, down 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. On August 8th, the expected profit per layer was 11.92 yuan/feather, down 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - Today, the national price of culled hens dropped, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.89 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [9] 2. Trading Logic - Supply - side pressure and average demand lead to price drops. The release of cold - storage eggs after a price rebound impacts prices. The current spot price increase is disappointing, so it's recommended to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting on price rallies [11] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [11] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The futures are continuously squeezing the premium, and the price of the main egg futures contract has broken through the support level and declined. The price of the 2510 contract dropped to 3112 [1][5]. - In the short - term, the spot market is under pressure from loose supply and is in a low - level shock. In the medium - term, the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption season may drive a phased rebound in the spot market in late August and early September, but the rebound high depends on the rhythm of culling hens. Currently, the culling of hens is less than expected and the cold - storage egg inventory pressure is large. In the long - term, if the egg - laying hen breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter and the culling of hens is less than expected, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The futures price is in yuan per 500 kilograms, with a decline of 2.54% [2]. Spot Performance - The egg price rebounded slightly over the weekend, but the Hebei spot price declined again today. The egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei is 2.69 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategy - The morning report today indicated that the 2509/2510 contracts entered the short - position profit - taking range. After taking profits on short positions in the 2509 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. The 2510 contract still maintains the idea of high - selling in bands. If it effectively breaks below 3150, it is expected to open up further downward space, which has been verified by the market. Currently, pay attention to the support effect at 3100. If the support at 3100 is effectively broken, the support will move down to 3000 - 3050. - The morning report also indicated that if the spot market is expected to strengthen, the 2512 and 2601 contracts may still have some downward space, which has also been verified by the market [4].