二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 碳酸锂：月末下游补库、矿山复工预期，多空 博弈加剧 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：大涨大跌，重心上移 碳酸锂期货合约周初涨停板，周尾跌停板。2601 合约收于 91020 元/吨，周环比上涨 3660 元/吨， 2605 合约收于 91960 元/吨，周环比上涨 4080 元/吨，现货周环比上涨 7150 元/吨为 92300 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2601 合约）上涨 3490 元/吨至+1280 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价-460 元/吨，周环比下跌 50 元/吨。2601-2605 合约价差-940 元/吨，环比走弱-420 元/吨。 供需基本面：去库速度放缓 原料：江西省自然资源厅公告，中联资产评估集团湖南华信有限公司提交的江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉 新县枧下窝矿（已动用锂矿资源量）出让收益评估报告，公示期间无异议，评估结果自公开之日起生效， 市场预期项目复工情况加速。本周澳矿发运量量 3.0 万吨，较低。智利发运量 7323 吨，处于高位。 供需： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 97,280 - 100,680. The market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment swings triggered by news. The main logic is the tight supply - demand balance and the emotional impact of news. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake sources with limited decline [8][9][11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 22,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a 22.73% month - on - month increase [7][8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 104,738 tons, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,211 tons, a 1.74% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [7][8]. - **Cost - side**: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 91,481 yuan/ton, a 2.24% day - on - week increase, with a production loss of 1,451 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 97,058 yuan/ton, a 3.06% day - on - week increase, with a production loss of 9,277 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [8][10]. - **Market sentiment**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish trend. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend [8][10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different changes. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased from 1,086 to 1,117 dollars/ton, a 2.85% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 88,900 to 91,300 yuan/ton, a 2.70% increase [16]. - **Supply - side data**: The monthly production of lithium carbonate from various sources, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake, showed different growth rates. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene increased by 5.73% [19]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly production and export of phosphoric acid iron lithium and other products also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron lithium increased by 10.54% [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Prices and production**: The prices of lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, showed an upward trend. The production of lithium ore from different sources also increased to varying degrees. For example, the production of lithium mica increased by 9.84% [26]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [28][30]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and import**: The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake, and the import volume from different countries, such as Chile and Argentina, showed different trends. For example, the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile showed a certain change [32][34]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and export**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources, such as smelting and causticizing, and the export volume showed different trends. For example, the export volume of lithium hydroxide showed a certain change [39]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and profit of different raw materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium compounds from different raw materials, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials, showed different trends. For example, the production profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 20.36% [44][47]. - **Profit of different processes**: The profit of different processes, such as lithium carbonate purification and lithium hydroxide carbonation, also showed different trends [47][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in different sectors, such as smelters, downstream enterprises, and others, showed different trends. The total inventory decreased by 2.80% week - on - week [10][52]. - **Lithium hydroxide inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in different sectors also showed different trends [52]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Prices and production**: The prices of lithium batteries showed different trends, and the monthly production of battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries also changed. For example, the monthly loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60% [56]. - **Inventory and bidding**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the bidding situation of energy storage projects also showed different trends [60]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Prices and production**: The prices of ternary precursors showed different trends, and the monthly production of ternary precursors from different series, such as 523, 622, and 811, also changed [63]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [66]. 3.10 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Prices and production**: The prices of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium showed different trends, and the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron lithium increased by 6.35% [73][76]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium showed a certain trend [78]. 3.11 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, sales, and penetration rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production of new energy vehicles increased, and the sales penetration rate also showed a certain change [81][82].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 98,980.00 | -320.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -180,463.00 | -3365.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 479,602.00 | -23530.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -280.00 | -40.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 26,916.00 | +150.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 91,300.00 | +2400.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 88,900.00 | +2400.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -7,680.00 | +2720.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 1,145.00 | +70.00↑ 磷锂铝石平均价（日，元/吨） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Due to the good demand growth rate and expectations, the industrial inventory continues to decline. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 177,527 lots, up 15,757 lots; the position of the main contract is 484,357 lots, down 78,597 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 20 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 26,611 lots/ton, down 342 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 87,400 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 85,050 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 6,120 yuan/ton, up 2,930 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,010 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 9,900 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,545 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 170,000 yuan/ton, up 10,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 165,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 37,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 46.45%, up 1.12%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 35.56%, up 0.36% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 171,798 lots, down 6,463 lots; the total put position is 167,227 lots, up 28,714 lots; the put - call ratio of the total position is 97.34%, up 19.637%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.44%, up 0.0914% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that in 2025, the investment growth rate of the automobile industry reached 17.5%. In the first 10 months of 2025, automobile production was 27.33 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; new energy vehicle production was 12.67 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%, with a penetration rate of 46%; fuel vehicle production was 14.65 million units, unchanged year - on - year. In October 2025, automobile production was 3.28 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; new energy vehicle production was 1.71 million units, a year - on - year increase of 19%, with a penetration rate of 52%; fuel vehicle production was 1.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In October, the export of new energy vehicles was 256,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 15.4% and a year - on - year increase of 99.9%. From January to October, the export of new energy vehicles was 2.014 million units, a year - on - year increase of 90.4%. The price of lithium iron phosphate, the "cost - effective champion" of batteries, has recovered, rising about 10% since October [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, and inventory aspects of the lithium carbonate market. It points out that the market is currently in a state of over - supply with weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 75,100 - 76,860 yuan/ton [8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 74,936 yuan/ton, a 0.21% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 1,870 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 77,947 yuan/ton, a 0.60% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 6,903 yuan/ton [8]. - **Overall Judgment**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 75,100 - 76,860 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price and Basis**: The prices of various contracts and their basis showed different degrees of change, with the basis of some contracts narrowing and others widening [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and other upstream products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.35% to 854 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.14% to 74,100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Positive Factors**: There are plans for manufacturers to stop or reduce production, the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased month - on - month, and the import volume of lithium spodumene has declined [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains high with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [10]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price**: The price of lithium ore has shown a certain upward trend [22]. - **Production and Import**: The production and import volume of lithium ore in different periods have changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium ore in September 2025 was 19,950 tons, and the import volume was 71,262 tons [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Import**: The production and import volume of lithium carbonate have changed over time. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 was 87,260 tons, and the import volume was 20,000 tons [34]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has also fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production, Import, and Export**: The production, import, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The monthly production of lithium hydroxide in September 2025 was 27,470 tons, the export volume was 7,200 tons, and the import volume was 800 tons [39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials have changed. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is currently at a loss [42]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of different processes such as purification and carbonation of lithium carbonate has also changed [44]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate includes the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties. The total inventory last week was 132,658 tons, a 1.58% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average [8]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide has also changed over time [37]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The monthly production of power batteries in September 2025 was 76,000 GWh, and the export volume of lithium batteries has also shown different trends in different years [52]. - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of lithium batteries have changed. For example, the price of some types of batteries has remained stable, while the cost has fluctuated [52]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors have changed over time. The average price of some types of ternary precursors has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Materials - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials have changed over time. The average price of some types of ternary materials has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [64]. - **Production, Import, and Export**: The production, import, and export volume of ternary materials have changed over time [64][68]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The price of phosphoric acid iron lithium has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [72]. - **Production, Export, and Inventory**: The production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time [75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have increased year - on - year. The production volume in September 2025 was 1,617,000 vehicles, and the sales volume was 1.604 million vehicles [16]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased year - on - year [81].

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries has made significant progress in its Jiangsu Zhangjiagang project, which aims to produce 30,000 tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide annually, with the first batch of products meeting the required standards by October 17, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The first batch of battery-grade lithium hydroxide has been successfully produced, laying the foundation for continuous mass production [1] - The project will enhance the company's lithium salt processing capacity, thereby improving profitability and the stability of profit growth [1] - The production of the first batch will not have a significant impact on the company's current financial status and operational results [1] Group 2 - The company will continue to optimize the project to achieve stable production and flexible switching to lithium carbonate [2] - Before commercial production can commence, the product must undergo third-party testing and obtain customer certification [2] - The project will require a gradual ramp-up in production capacity, and any issues affecting quality or output may necessitate further process optimization [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch with strong supply and weak demand in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change, mainly due to capacity mismatch [8][9][13]. - The cost of externally - purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica shows different trends, with production at a loss; the cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to oscillate in the range of 71,640 - 74,120 [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, production was 85,240 physical tons, and next - month's production is predicted to be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and next - month's import is predicted to be 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a 0.81% week - on - week increase; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost: The daily - based price of 6% concentrate CIF increased, but it is lower than the historical average [9]. - Expectations: The cost of externally - purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,430 yuan/ton, a 0.16% daily increase, with a production loss of 3,049 yuan/ton; the cost of externally - purchased lithium mica is 77,345 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a production loss of 6,951 yuan/ton; the production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - Fundamentals: Neutral. The basis on September 18 was 570 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 on the disk is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract futures closed below the MA20. The net position of the main traders is short, with a reduction in short positions [10]. -利多: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. -利空: The supply at the ore and salt - lake ends remains high, with limited decline; the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Most contracts showed a downward trend, with declines ranging from 0.94% to 1.46% [16]. - Basis: Most contracts showed an increase, with increases ranging from 91.74% to 240.00% [16]. - Registered warrants: 39,354 lots, a 0.31% increase [16]. - Upstream prices: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.12%, while other prices remained mostly unchanged [16]. - Positive electrode materials and lithium battery prices: Most prices showed a slight increase, with increases ranging from 0.13% to 0.37% [16]. 3.2.2 Supply - side Data - Lithium ore: The monthly production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica showed different trends, and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 34.73%. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 21.77%, with a 27.58% decrease in imports from Chile [19]. - Lithium carbonate: The monthly production was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase. The monthly net import volume decreased by 21.94%. The supply - demand balance was - 2,090 tons [19]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly production was 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease. The monthly net export volume decreased by 73.89% [19]. 3.2.3 Demand - side Data - Lithium battery: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% [19]. - Ternary precursor: The monthly production was 78,440 tons, a 6.99% increase. The supply - demand balance was - 4,154 tons [19]. - Ternary material: The monthly production was 73,440 tons, a 9.55% increase [19]. - Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 78,440 tons, a 8.55% increase [19]. - New energy vehicle: The production was 1,391,000 vehicles, a 11.91% increase, and the sales volume was 1.262 million vehicles, a 5.04% decrease [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. - The cost of lithium carbonate production from some sources shows a downward trend, while the demand is expected to strengthen in the next month, and the inventory may be depleted [9]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,800 - 72,520 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the output was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 73,410 yuan/ton, a 0.18% daily decrease, with a loss of 2,019 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 76,792 yuan/ton, a 0.74% daily decrease, with a loss of 7,378 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production income is negative. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [9]. - Other aspects: The basis on September 12 shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract is 1,290 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory is 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closes below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position decreases [9]. - Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the lack of willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate is 66.41%, unchanged from the previous value. The daily production cost of spodumene is 73,410 yuan/ton, a 0.19% decrease. The monthly processing cost of spodumene is 20,700 yuan/ton, a 4.49% increase. The daily production profit of spodumene is - 2,019 yuan/ton, a 14.65% decrease. The daily production cost of lithium mica is 76,792 yuan/ton, a 0.74% decrease. The monthly processing cost of lithium mica is 35,460 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase. The daily production profit of lithium mica is - 7,378 yuan/ton, a 2.45% increase. The monthly total output of lithium carbonate is 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate is 576,138 tons, a 34.73% increase [18]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is 62%, a 5% increase. The monthly output is 316,400 tons, an 8.84% increase. The monthly export volume of lithium iron phosphate is 2,741,411 kg, a 34.94% increase. The weekly inventory is 95,442 tons, a 0.72% increase. The monthly output of ternary precursors shows different growth rates for different types. The monthly output of ternary materials also shows different growth rates for different types. The monthly power battery loading volume is 62,500 GWh, an 11.81% increase [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,200 - 72,240 yuan/ton. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors including manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include high - level supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][10][14][15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August 2025 was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.71% [8][10]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,756 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,644 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8][10]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 73,889 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 2.46%, with a production loss of 1,507 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 77,715 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.46%, with a production loss of 7,321 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, and the production income is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Other Indicators**: - **Base Difference**: On September 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,730 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish signal [13]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is 140,092 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73%, higher than the historical average. Among them, the smelter inventory is 39,475 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.90%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 55,207 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.56%, higher than the historical average; other inventories are 45,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, higher than the historical average [13]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [13]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lepidolite concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have generally decreased. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased from 879 to 849 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.41% [18]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 66.41%. The daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 2.47% to 73,889 yuan/ton, and the monthly processing cost increased by 4.49% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The production cost of lepidolite also decreased, with the daily cost at 77,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% [20]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% to 264,720 tons, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% to 316,400 tons. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.28% to 94,756 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased by 1.05% to 17,644 tons [20]. - **Supply - Lithium Ore**: - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations over the years. The production of domestic spodumene mines and lepidolite has different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased significantly, with the import volume from Australia increasing by 67.24% in a certain period [26]. - **Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rates of spodumene, lithium ore, and lepidolite have different trends over time [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months, with a tight supply - demand relationship in some months [28]. - **Supply - Lithium Carbonate**: - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycled materials) has different trends. The monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate have also changed over time. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons [31]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased in a certain period. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [36][39]. - **Supply - Lithium Hydroxide**: - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over time. The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) and the total production have different trends. The export volume of lithium hydroxide has also changed in different years [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [45]. - **Lithium Compound Cost and Profit**: - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and recycled materials have different trends over time. The processing cost of lithium ore and the profit of lithium carbonate import also show different situations [48][50]. - **Profit of Lithium Hydroxide Processing**: The profit and cost of processing lithium hydroxide by different methods (smelting and causticizing), the profit of converting lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate, and the profit of exporting lithium hydroxide have different trends [53]. - **Inventory**: - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, and others) have different trends. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts has also changed over time [55]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter and downstream) has different trends [55]. - **Demand - Lithium Battery**: - **Battery Price and Production**: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time. The monthly production of battery cells for different purposes (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage) has also changed. The monthly output of power batteries has decreased in a certain period [59]. - **Battery Cost and Inventory**: The cost of battery cells has different trends. The inventory of lithium battery cells for different purposes (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage battery) has also changed [59][61]. - **Demand - Ternary Precursor**: - **Price and Cost**: The prices of different types of ternary precursors have changed over time. The cost and profit of ternary precursors also show different situations [64]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production of ternary precursors of different types (333, 523, 622, 811, NCA) and the total production have different trends. The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has also changed [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different situations in different months, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [67]. - **Demand - Ternary Material**: - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The prices of different types of ternary materials have changed over time. The cost - profit trends of ternary materials also show different situations [70]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of ternary materials has different trends. The weekly inventory of ternary materials has also changed [70][72]. - **Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Phosphoric Acid Iron**: - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The prices of lithium iron phosphate and phosphoric acid iron have changed over time. The cost - profit trends of lithium iron phosphate also show different situations [74]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and phosphoric acid iron has different trends. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate has also changed [77][79]. - **Demand - New Energy Vehicle**: - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have different trends over time. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased [82][83]. - **Inventory and Retail - Wholesale Ratio**: The inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers, as well as the retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles, have different trends [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance due to capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main logic is that the supply of ore/salt lake remains at a high level with limited decline, while the demand from the power battery end shows insufficient willingness to take delivery. However, there are also some positive factors such as manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene [8][9][13][14]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,840 - 75,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2.04% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase compared to August. The import volume in August was 17,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 19,500 tons in September, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,756 tons, a 0.28% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,644 tons, a 1.05% decrease compared to the previous week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 39,475 tons, a 8.90% decrease compared to the previous week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 55,207 tons, a 4.56% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 45,410 tons, a 0.91% increase compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 140,092 tons, a 0.73% decrease compared to the previous week, higher than the historical average [9]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [9]. - Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene; negative factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness to take delivery from the power battery end [12][13] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Cost: The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate was 75,475 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase compared to the previous day, resulting in a loss of 1,567 yuan/ton; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 78,868 yuan/ton, a 0.58% decrease compared to the previous day, resulting in a loss of 6,991 yuan/ton; the production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - Basis: On September 4, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,580 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11].