交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为22045吨，环比增长0.21%,高于历史同期平均水平。 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月24日 目 录 1 每日观点 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为102271吨，环比减少1.33%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18091 吨，环比减少2.33%。 供给端，2025年11月碳酸锂产量为95350实物吨，预测下月产量为98210实物吨，环比增加3.00%,2025年11月碳 酸锂进口量为22055实物吨，预测下月进口量为27000实物吨，环比增加22.42%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强 化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所增长，低于历史同期平均水平，需求主 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月17日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 | ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为21998吨 环比增长0 26% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， . , | 。 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 需求端来看 | ， | 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为103658吨 环比减少0 02% 上周三元材料样本 ， . , | | | | | | | 企业库存为18524吨 ， | 环比减少1 68% 。 . | | | | | | 成本端来看 | ， | 外购锂辉石精矿成本为98042元/吨 日环比增长0 21% 生产所得为 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 【宏观及行业新闻】 SMM 电池级碳酸锂指数价格 95238 元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨 657 元/吨；电池级碳酸锂 9.35-9.68 万元/吨，均价 9.515 万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨 650 元/吨；工业级碳酸锂 9.2-9.33 万元/吨，均价 9.265 万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨 650 元/吨。（上海有色网） 12 月 13 日，澳大利亚政府确认追加 50 亿澳元用于户用储能补贴，这意味着"更便宜的家用电池计 碳酸锂：复产消息反复，宽幅震荡 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 99,100 | 3,180 | 6,040 | 3,980 | 1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月10日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21939吨，环比增长0.33%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为103681吨，环比减少0.63%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18842 吨，环比减少2.68%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为94487元/吨，日环比增长0.01%,生产所得为-3021元/吨，有所亏损；外 购锂云母成本为93100元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-3898元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生产成本普遍大于矿 石端成本，生产所得为负，排产积极性较低；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31477元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于矿 石端，盈 ...

2025 年 12 月 8 日 碳酸锂：偏弱震荡，关注尼日利亚停矿事件发酵 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 90,760 | -1,500 | -3,880 | -260 | 11,620 | 12,440 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 97,060 | -4,918 | -46,207 | -1,040,764 | -418,671 | 11,650 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 208,282 | 5,063 | -55,422 | -203,045 | -244,978 | 80,180 | | | 盘面 | 2 ...

二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 碳酸锂：月末下游补库、矿山复工预期，多空 博弈加剧 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：大涨大跌，重心上移 碳酸锂期货合约周初涨停板，周尾跌停板。2601 合约收于 91020 元/吨，周环比上涨 3660 元/吨， 2605 合约收于 91960 元/吨，周环比上涨 4080 元/吨，现货周环比上涨 7150 元/吨为 92300 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2601 合约）上涨 3490 元/吨至+1280 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价-460 元/吨，周环比下跌 50 元/吨。2601-2605 合约价差-940 元/吨，环比走弱-420 元/吨。 供需基本面：去库速度放缓 原料：江西省自然资源厅公告，中联资产评估集团湖南华信有限公司提交的江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉 新县枧下窝矿（已动用锂矿资源量）出让收益评估报告，公示期间无异议，评估结果自公开之日起生效， 市场预期项目复工情况加速。本周澳矿发运量量 3.0 万吨，较低。智利发运量 7323 吨，处于高位。 供需： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 97,280 - 100,680. The market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment swings triggered by news. The main logic is the tight supply - demand balance and the emotional impact of news. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake sources with limited decline [8][9][11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 22,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a 22.73% month - on - month increase [7][8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 104,738 tons, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,211 tons, a 1.74% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [7][8]. - **Cost - side**: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased day - on - day, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 91,481 yuan/ton, a 2.24% day - on - week increase, with a production loss of 1,451 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 97,058 yuan/ton, a 3.06% day - on - week increase, with a production loss of 9,277 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [8][10]. - **Market sentiment**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish trend. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend [8][10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different changes. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased from 1,086 to 1,117 dollars/ton, a 2.85% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 88,900 to 91,300 yuan/ton, a 2.70% increase [16]. - **Supply - side data**: The monthly production of lithium carbonate from various sources, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake, showed different growth rates. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene increased by 5.73% [19]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly production and export of phosphoric acid iron lithium and other products also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron lithium increased by 10.54% [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Prices and production**: The prices of lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, showed an upward trend. The production of lithium ore from different sources also increased to varying degrees. For example, the production of lithium mica increased by 9.84% [26]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [28][30]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and import**: The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake, and the import volume from different countries, such as Chile and Argentina, showed different trends. For example, the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile showed a certain change [32][34]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and export**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources, such as smelting and causticizing, and the export volume showed different trends. For example, the export volume of lithium hydroxide showed a certain change [39]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and profit of different raw materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium compounds from different raw materials, such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials, showed different trends. For example, the production profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 20.36% [44][47]. - **Profit of different processes**: The profit of different processes, such as lithium carbonate purification and lithium hydroxide carbonation, also showed different trends [47][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in different sectors, such as smelters, downstream enterprises, and others, showed different trends. The total inventory decreased by 2.80% week - on - week [10][52]. - **Lithium hydroxide inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in different sectors also showed different trends [52]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Prices and production**: The prices of lithium batteries showed different trends, and the monthly production of battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries also changed. For example, the monthly loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60% [56]. - **Inventory and bidding**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the bidding situation of energy storage projects also showed different trends [60]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Prices and production**: The prices of ternary precursors showed different trends, and the monthly production of ternary precursors from different series, such as 523, 622, and 811, also changed [63]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also showed different situations in different months, with periods of shortage and surplus [66]. 3.10 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Prices and production**: The prices of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium showed different trends, and the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphoric acid iron lithium increased by 6.35% [73][76]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium showed a certain trend [78]. 3.11 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, sales, and penetration rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production of new energy vehicles increased, and the sales penetration rate also showed a certain change [81][82].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 98,980.00 | -320.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -180,463.00 | -3365.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 479,602.00 | -23530.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -280.00 | -40.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 26,916.00 | +150.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 91,300.00 | +2400.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 88,900.00 | +2400.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -7,680.00 | +2720.00↑ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 1,145.00 | +70.00↑ 磷锂铝石平均价（日，元/吨） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Due to the good demand growth rate and expectations, the industrial inventory continues to decline. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 177,527 lots, up 15,757 lots; the position of the main contract is 484,357 lots, down 78,597 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 20 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 26,611 lots/ton, down 342 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 87,400 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 85,050 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 6,120 yuan/ton, up 2,930 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,010 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 9,900 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,545 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 170,000 yuan/ton, up 10,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 165,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 37,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 46.45%, up 1.12%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 35.56%, up 0.36% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 171,798 lots, down 6,463 lots; the total put position is 167,227 lots, up 28,714 lots; the put - call ratio of the total position is 97.34%, up 19.637%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.44%, up 0.0914% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that in 2025, the investment growth rate of the automobile industry reached 17.5%. In the first 10 months of 2025, automobile production was 27.33 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; new energy vehicle production was 12.67 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%, with a penetration rate of 46%; fuel vehicle production was 14.65 million units, unchanged year - on - year. In October 2025, automobile production was 3.28 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; new energy vehicle production was 1.71 million units, a year - on - year increase of 19%, with a penetration rate of 52%; fuel vehicle production was 1.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In October, the export of new energy vehicles was 256,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 15.4% and a year - on - year increase of 99.9%. From January to October, the export of new energy vehicles was 2.014 million units, a year - on - year increase of 90.4%. The price of lithium iron phosphate, the "cost - effective champion" of batteries, has recovered, rising about 10% since October [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, and inventory aspects of the lithium carbonate market. It points out that the market is currently in a state of over - supply with weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 75,100 - 76,860 yuan/ton [8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium sample enterprises was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 74,936 yuan/ton, a 0.21% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 1,870 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 77,947 yuan/ton, a 0.60% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 6,903 yuan/ton [8]. - **Overall Judgment**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 75,100 - 76,860 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price and Basis**: The prices of various contracts and their basis showed different degrees of change, with the basis of some contracts narrowing and others widening [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and other upstream products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.35% to 854 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.14% to 74,100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Positive Factors**: There are plans for manufacturers to stop or reduce production, the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile has decreased month - on - month, and the import volume of lithium spodumene has declined [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains high with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [10]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price**: The price of lithium ore has shown a certain upward trend [22]. - **Production and Import**: The production and import volume of lithium ore in different periods have changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium ore in September 2025 was 19,950 tons, and the import volume was 71,262 tons [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Import**: The production and import volume of lithium carbonate have changed over time. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 was 87,260 tons, and the import volume was 20,000 tons [34]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has also fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production, Import, and Export**: The production, import, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The monthly production of lithium hydroxide in September 2025 was 27,470 tons, the export volume was 7,200 tons, and the import volume was 800 tons [39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials have changed. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is currently at a loss [42]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of different processes such as purification and carbonation of lithium carbonate has also changed [44]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate includes the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties. The total inventory last week was 132,658 tons, a 1.58% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average [8]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide has also changed over time [37]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The monthly production of power batteries in September 2025 was 76,000 GWh, and the export volume of lithium batteries has also shown different trends in different years [52]. - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of lithium batteries have changed. For example, the price of some types of batteries has remained stable, while the cost has fluctuated [52]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors have changed over time. The average price of some types of ternary precursors has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated, with shortages in some months and surpluses in others [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Materials - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials have changed over time. The average price of some types of ternary materials has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [64]. - **Production, Import, and Export**: The production, import, and export volume of ternary materials have changed over time [64][68]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The price of phosphoric acid iron lithium has increased, and the profit has also shown different trends [72]. - **Production, Export, and Inventory**: The production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time [75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have increased year - on - year. The production volume in September 2025 was 1,617,000 vehicles, and the sales volume was 1.604 million vehicles [16]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased year - on - year [81].