市场对于特朗普式的"关税吓唬"开始脱敏。 7月9日，尽管特朗普宣布对巴西进口征收50%的关税，并向其他小型贸易伙伴发出关税通知，美股却在 科技股的带动下延续强势表现。 AI芯片供应商英伟达（NVDA.US）第2季开始发力，在接连超越苹果（AAPL.US）和微软 （MSFT.US）后，英伟达再与自己角力，连创新高后，其市值于7月9日一度突破4万亿美元，收市涨 1.80%，报162.88美元，市值3.97万亿美元。 美债整体走高，债息下降，其中美国10年期债券息率下跌6个基点，至4.34%，也有利于美股表现。 联邦公开市场委员会最新发布的会议纪要偏"鹰"，只有少数成员认为关税会对物价产生一次性影响，但 不会影响更长远的通胀预期，但大部分成员依然认为关税对通胀的影响将会持续很长一段时间。 因此，美联储对于接下来的货币政策走向出现了分歧，但大致上分为三个阵营：1）7月份议息会议降 息；2）全年维持利率不变；3）7月不降息，但今年剩余时间仍会降息。第三阵营占主流。 那么，市场怎么看？ 见下图，CME美联储观察显示，今年内降息50个基点的预期占主流，占了42.91%，与公布议息纪要前 一日的比例相若，不过降息75个基点的 ...

Group 1 - The Global Digital Economy Conference recently held a forum to announce the shortlisted cases for the "Open Source Large Model+" software innovation applications [1] - The initiative aims to explore the application potential of open-source large models like DeepSeek across various industries, promoting technological innovation and business upgrades [4] - A total of over 100 typical cases were submitted from across the country, with 68 cases shortlisted after rigorous evaluation based on innovation, technological breakthroughs, and ecological synergy [5] Group 2 - Among the shortlisted cases, 26 were recognized as selected innovative cases due to their technical strength, innovative achievements, and application value [5] - The second round of case collection for "Open Source Large Model+" software innovation applications will begin, with results expected to be announced in the second half of 2025 [5] - The selected innovative cases will be awarded at a future event related to cloud and software security [5]

"外卖战"愈发激烈，阿里继续"烧钱"模式。 据追风交易台消息，汇丰最新研报显示，阿里将在未来几个季度继续加大即时零售（Insta）和外卖业务（FD）投资。虽然阿里将大幅投资外卖和即时零 售业务拖累短期盈利，但这些因素已基本反映在股价中，云计算业务保持强劲增长势头，AI领域领先地位为长期价值提供支撑。该行依然维持阿里巴巴 买入评级，但将目标价从176美元下调至150美元，较当前股价107.99美元仍有38.9%上涨空间。 自2024年4月以来，外卖配送和即时零售竞争愈发激烈。美团在4月14日推出为期三年、总额1000亿元人民币的外卖支持计划，并在5月26日宣布"不惜一切 代价赢得竞争"。京东则在4月11日启动为期一年、总额100亿元人民币的外卖补贴项目。 对比之下，阿里"外卖战"相对较晚，其7月2日推出为期一年、总额500亿元人民币的外卖补贴计划。 但阿里增长势头迅猛。根据第三方数据，阿里在外卖和即时零售市场的份额从2024年的20%以上快速提升至2025年7月5日的36%，美团为55%，京东为 9%。这一显著增长得益于饿了么和飞猪整合进入淘宝天猫、领导层整合、激进补贴策略以及流量支持。 汇丰预计阿里巴巴将在未 ...

Group 1 - A-shares showed mixed performance on July 10, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening at 3491.50 points, down 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index opened at 10593.70 points, up 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index opened at 2192.99 points, up 0.38% [1] - Nvidia's market capitalization briefly surpassed $4 trillion, driven by optimism regarding its leadership in the AI sector and expectations of surging demand [1] - Central China Securities noted that the reliability requirements for optical modules are increasing, and the shortening of iteration cycles is raising industry technical barriers, which will further highlight the advantages of leading manufacturers [1] Group 2 - Nvidia's recent stock price surge is expected to benefit the domestic computing power industry chain due to overseas mapping logic [2] - The Cloud Computing 50 ETF (516630) tracks a cloud computing index that has a high AI computing power content, covering popular concepts such as optical modules, computing power leasing, data centers, AI servers, and liquid cooling [2] - The Cloud Computing 50 ETF (516630) is noted for having the lowest total fee rate for tracking this index [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant improvements in urban infrastructure and community facilities in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, aimed at enhancing residents' satisfaction and quality of life [1][2][3][4] - Over the past three years, Hohhot has completed the renovation of 1,261 old residential communities and 87 shantytowns, along with the upgrade of 370 kilometers of old pipelines [2] - The city has also increased its heating capacity by 38 million square meters and resolved water supply issues for 502 residential communities, contributing to a 12% improvement in traffic efficiency [2] Group 2 - Hohhot has implemented policies to attract and retain young talent, successfully completing a three-year initiative that resulted in 137,000 university graduates finding employment or starting businesses in the city [3] - The city has been recognized as one of the top 50 cities in China for talent development, reflecting its commitment to creating a favorable environment for young professionals [3] - Hohhot's efforts in urban management and community engagement have led to a high satisfaction rate among residents, with participation in various civic activities consistently above 95% [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple industry leaders have reported positive earnings forecasts for the first half of the year, indicating strong performance across various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - A total of 107 companies have released their earnings data, with 83 companies showing positive forecasts, including profit increases and turnaround from losses [1]. - Among the companies, 61 are expected to achieve net profits exceeding 100 million yuan, accounting for nearly 60% of the total [2]. - Notable companies with significant profit forecasts include Industrial Fulian, Lixun Precision, and Xinhecheng, all expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in net profits [2][3]. Group 2: Specific Company Performance - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit of 67.27 billion to 69.27 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.72% to 52.11% [2]. - Lixun Precision expects a profit of 64.75 billion to 67.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20% to 25% [3]. - Xinhecheng forecasts a net profit of 33 billion to 37.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50% to 70% [3]. Group 3: Exceptional Growth - 24 companies are projected to double their net profits, with Huayin Power showing the highest increase, expecting a profit of 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, a staggering growth of 3600.7% to 4423.07% [4]. - Other companies like Shengnong Development and Whirlpool are also expected to see significant profit increases, with some exceeding 400% growth [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - Companies that have released positive earnings forecasts have seen an average stock price increase of 27.03% this year, outperforming the broader market [5]. - Huayin Power has experienced the highest stock price increase of 160.77%, while other companies like Bangji Technology have also seen substantial gains [5]. Group 5: Financing Trends - Since July, there has been an influx of financing into companies with positive earnings forecasts, with 49 stocks receiving net purchases [6]. - Xiaoshangpin City has received the highest net purchase amount of 373 million yuan, with an expected profit increase of 12.57% to 17.40% [6].

Group 1 - US stock indices opened higher on July 9, with the Dow Jones up 0.41%, Nasdaq up 0.52%, and S&P 500 up 0.39% [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with New Oriental rising over 2% and NIO up 1.34%, while Kingsoft Cloud and JD.com fell over 3%, and Alibaba, Bilibili, Zhihu, and NetEase dropped over 2% [1] - Verona Pharma's stock surged over 20% following the announcement of a $10 billion acquisition by Merck [1] Group 2 - Intel announced plans to cut over 500 jobs in Oregon, affecting 529 employees starting July 15, following a previous layoff of 107 employees in California [2] Group 3 - Merck has reached a final agreement to acquire Verona Pharma for approximately $10 billion, with the purchase price set at $107 per American Depositary Share [3] Group 4 - Pony.ai has launched Robotaxi road tests in Luxembourg, marking a significant step in the global deployment of its autonomous taxi service [4] Group 5 - Volkswagen Group reported a global delivery of 2.272 million vehicles in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with North American sales down 16.2% and deliveries in China up 2.8% to 669,700 vehicles [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by a U.S. judge that allows AI companies to use copyrighted works for training AI models under the doctrine of fair use has created significant concern among content creators and copyright holders [1] Group 1: Impact on Content Creators - Content creators and copyright holders are facing a "survival crisis" as users increasingly prefer to obtain information through AI chatbots rather than visiting original content links, leading to a 30% decrease in click-through rates for traditional URLs since the launch of Google's AI Mode [8][10] - The emergence of AI companies has shifted the dynamic from a dispute over revenue sharing to a more existential threat for copyright holders, as many AI firms do not compensate for the content they scrape [10] Group 2: Cloudflare's Response - Cloudflare has announced a default feature to block AI crawlers from scraping content without the website owner's permission, aiming to restore control to creators while still supporting AI innovation [3][5] - The company offers a "pay-per-use" model for AI firms to access content, providing a feasible path for AI companies to obtain content legally while empowering smaller websites to protect their data [15] Group 3: Technical Measures Against AI Crawlers - Cloudflare employs advanced techniques such as the "5-second challenge" and "AI Labyrinth" to differentiate between human users and automated tools, effectively thwarting many AI crawlers [10][12][13] - The "AI Labyrinth" strategy involves embedding hidden links that lead crawlers to meaningless content, thereby wasting their computational resources and bandwidth [12][13] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting as Cloudflare positions itself as a protector of content creators while also facilitating a payment structure for AI companies, creating a win-win scenario [6][15] - Major AI firms, such as Google and OpenAI, are already investing significantly in content acquisition, indicating a willingness to pay for quality content, which highlights the potential for a structured payment system [15]

Group 1 - The 18th China Smart City Conference was held in Wuhan, Hubei, where the "2025 Smart City Pioneer List" was released, and Qinzhou's digital infrastructure construction case won the Excellent Case Second Prize, being the only awarded case from Guangxi [1] - The conference is co-hosted by the Chinese Society of Surveying and Mapping, the China Service Trade Association, and the China Remote Sensing Committee, making it a significant event in the smart city sector in China [4] - Qinzhou has been actively implementing the central government's strategy for artificial intelligence development and has accelerated smart city construction, establishing a framework for a stable, efficient, and secure urban service capability system [4] Group 2 - The "Beautiful Guangxi·Qinzhou Cloud," built on Huawei's cloud platform, has developed a "City Cloud" system consisting of three modules: government cloud, public service cloud, and enterprise cloud, providing efficient and secure cloud computing services for over 85 government and enterprise units [6] - The newly launched Huawei Ascend AI computing resource pool supports digital government governance and reform of government services, providing a smart foundation for these initiatives [6] - Qinzhou has developed the "City Brain" platform, integrating over 30 existing systems, and has created various subsystems such as "Shared Bicycle Supervision" and "Smart Doorplate," implementing over 60 AI algorithms to transition social governance from passive response to proactive AI management [8]

Core Insights - The demand for AI computing power is driving a surge in debt financing models using GPUs as collateral, with Fluidstack recently securing over $10 billion in loans backed by NVIDIA GPUs [1] - CoreWeave pioneered this financing model, raising $9.9 billion to purchase chips and lease them to clients like OpenAI, leading to a total borrowing exceeding $20 billion among AI cloud startups [1][2] - The rapid depreciation of NVIDIA GPUs due to short product life cycles poses a significant risk to this financing model, resulting in lenders demanding interest rates in the double digits [1][4] Fluidstack's Financing - Fluidstack, a cloud startup established in 2017, has raised more than CoreWeave's previous total of $9.9 billion in GPU-backed debt, with projected revenues exceeding $400 million this year [2] - The company primarily provides chip leasing services to clients in France and Germany and is in discussions with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan for potential debt arrangements [2] Private Credit Fund Involvement - Private credit funds are actively participating in GPU-backed financing, with the market size growing nearly tenfold to over $2 trillion in the past decade, driven by optimism about the AI cloud sector [3] - It is estimated that 75% of the funding for AI cloud business construction will be allocated to GPU purchases [3] Challenges of GPU Depreciation - The core challenge for lenders is the longevity of NVIDIA chips, which are at risk of rapid obsolescence due to accelerated development cycles [4] - CoreWeave estimates the effective lifespan of these chips to be around six years, but the fast-paced innovation could lead to quicker depreciation, prompting lenders to impose stringent collateral requirements [4] Alternative Financing Strategies - Companies like TensorWave are exploring debt financing using AMD chips as collateral, marking one of the first transactions of this kind [5] - Other firms are opting to avoid GPU-backed debt in favor of cheaper financing sources, with CoreWeave announcing an $8.9 billion acquisition of Core Scientific to leverage lower interest rates through infrastructure financing [5]