8月29日晚间，阿里云公布的财报数字远超市场预期，AI相关产品收入连续8个季度实现三位数的同比 增长，收入占比超两成，全栈布局显成效。晚间，其母公司阿里巴巴（BABA.US）强势上涨了 12.90%，作为中国最大、亚太第一的云服务商，阿里云表示积极探索优秀的AI企业进行战略合作。 今日，移动游戏广告服务的隐形冠军——万咖壹联（01762）宣布正式与阿里云正式签订全面合作备忘 录，宣告双方将展开深度战略合作，共同打造"AI营销智能体"与"AI手机智能体"双引擎，推动行业变 革。 1.投放策略智能体：这套系统的核心突破在于 "数据厚度" 与 "算法精度" 的协同，基于万咖历史十年间 积累的投放数据与用户行为分析，叠加通义千问千亿级参数模型，可自动完成行业趋势洞察，通过亿级 用户标签的智能匹配，圈选出高转化潜力人群，进而生成适配不同渠道、不同人群的个性化创意素材， 从文案措辞到视觉风格均实现 AI 化定制；最终通过动态预算模型，将资源自动倾斜至 ROI 最优的投放 组合，进一步放大 "数据×AI" 的乘数效应，为广告主打造更精准、更高效的智能营销解决方案。据公告 成，该投放效率将提升30%以上。 2.广告分发智能体 ...

金工定期报告 20250901 从微观出发的风格轮动月度跟踪 202509 2025 年 09 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《从微观出发的风格轮动月度 跟踪 202508》 2025-08-01 ◼ 2025 年 8 月风格轮动模型收益率为 7.85%。 ◼ 2025 年 9 月最新风格择时方向为：成长、大市值、动量、高波。 金工定期报告 内容目录 | 1. 微观出发的风格轮动模型简介 . | | --- | | 2. 风格轮动模型绩效跟踪 | | 3. 风格轮动模型持仓跟踪 | | 4. 风险娱示 | ◼ 2025 年 9 月风格择时最新持仓为： 表1：2025 年 9 月风格择时最新持仓 | 指数代码 | 指数名称 | ETF 代码 | ETF 名称 | | --- | --- | --- ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，目前阿里巴巴-W(09988,BABA.US)港股和美股交易于16/18倍 FY26和13/15倍FY27非通用准则市盈率。下调FY26收入3%至10,683亿元，系高鑫零售和银泰出表影 响，下调FY26非通用准则归母净利润29%至1,218亿元，主要系淘宝闪购投入加大;该行引入FY27收入和 利润预测12,151亿元和1,493亿元，将阿里估值切换为分部估值并将估值切换至FY27，基于电商业务13x P/E和云计算业务3.5x P/S，主要由于电商和云业务均已独立盈利和估值中枢调整，对应美股和港股目标 价151美元和147港币，较前次目标价上调35%，维持跑赢行业评级，较目前港股和美股股价有27%和 12%的上行空间。 淘宝闪购单量流量齐升，预计7月为亏损峰值 25年8月即时零售月活跃买家达3亿，淘宝月活跃买家同增25%，日均订单达8,000万单，实现用户规模 和用户认知建设目标。从经营效率看，短期闪购UE亏损较大，该行预计7月为UE亏损峰值，随后通过 运力优化、效率提升、用户和订单结构优化， UE逐月改善，9月以后UE亏损有望较7月收窄一半，该行 测算1QFY26和2Q ...

Macro Economic Group - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises reported PMIs of 48.9% and 46.6%, respectively, indicating a clear divergence in economic conditions between large and smaller firms [4][5] - The production index for August was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month. New orders increased to 49.5%, and new export orders rose to 47.2%, both showing slight improvements [4] - The inventory index for finished products was 46.8%, indicating a smooth destocking process in the manufacturing sector, with a sales inventory ratio of 1.03, down from 1.06 in July [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - Alibaba reported a 26% year-on-year growth in cloud revenue for Q2 2025 and reaffirmed its AI capital expenditure plan of 380 billion over three years. This is expected to positively impact the AI sector [8] - The U.S. Department of Commerce canceled import equipment safety review exemptions for Intel, Samsung, and Hynix in China, which is seen as beneficial for the domestic chip industry [8] - Huahong Semiconductor announced plans to acquire a 12-inch integrated circuit foundry line with a monthly capacity of 38,000 wafers, projecting a revenue of approximately 5 billion in 2024 [9] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Li Auto reported a total revenue of 30.2 billion for Q2 2025, a year-on-year decline of 4.5%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion, down 0.4%. The company aims to enhance product competitiveness through deep upgrades in smart assisted driving [11] - Xinwanda achieved a total revenue of 26.985 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.82%, with a net profit of 856 million, up 3.88%. The growth was driven by successful expansions in electric vehicle batteries and energy storage systems [12] Consumer Group - Zhengbang Technology reported a total revenue of 6.838 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 112.17%, with a net profit of 202 million, up 258.18%. The growth was attributed to increased sales in pig farming [14] - Sanfu Outdoor reported a total revenue of 378 million for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with a net profit of 17 million, up 105.75%, aligning with previous performance forecasts [14]

阿里巴巴盘中一度涨近19%，报137.5港元，有望创下自2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅。 分析人士指出，AI收入的三位数增长和强劲的云计算销售表明，阿里巴巴正在重新定位，以实现技术领域的长期相关性，而不仅仅是零售业的主导地 位。 阿里巴巴上周五晚公布的2026财年第一财季财报显示，阿里云业务营收333.98亿元，同比增长26%，超市场预期，AI相关收入继续保持三位数增长，外部 商业化收入中AI贡献已超过20%，AI需求快速扩大，同时带动计算、存储及其它公有云服务需求上升。 2025年第二季度，阿里巴巴的资本开支为386亿元，同比增长220%，环比上季增长57.1%，创下单季历史新高。值得注意的是，过去四个季度，阿里巴巴 已在AI基础设施及AI产品研发上累计投入超过1000亿元。 ...

阿里云，紧急辟谣。 日前，市场传言称，阿里巴巴旗下阿里云为满足自身需求，追加购买寒武纪思元370至15万片。对此， 阿里云相关人士向证券时报记者回应称：阿里云确实一云多芯支持国产供应链，但传言阿里采购寒武纪 15万片GPU的消息不实。 值得一提的是，近期寒武纪股价持续大涨。8月28日股价更是大幅收涨15.73%，收于1587.91元/股，超 越贵州茅台的收盘价格1446.1元/股，正式成为A股"股王"。值得注意的是，今日寒武纪大跌，盘中一度 跌超8%。 此外，8月29日，阿里巴巴公布2026财年第一季度财报，展现了其在核心电商业务与云计算领域的强劲 实力。财报显示，报告期内，剔除已出售业务影响，集团整体收入同比增长10%，净利润同比增76%。 其中，云计算业务是本季财报中的最大亮点，阿里云收入达到334亿元人民币，同比增长26%，相比上 一季度18%的增速明显提速，AI相关产品收入连续八个季度实现三位数同比增长。 阿里巴巴集团CEO吴泳铭表示，面向未来，阿里将围绕"大消费"和"AI+云"两大战略重心投入。在财报 电话会上，阿里巴巴也重申了未来三年投入3800亿元用于AI和云基础设施建设的计划。这意味着，阿 里 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingsoft Cloud (金山云) - **Industry**: Cloud Computing and Artificial Intelligence Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Strong Demand for AI**: Kingsoft Cloud's revenue for Q2 2025 increased by 24% year-on-year, driven primarily by strong demand for artificial intelligence services, which saw a revenue growth of over 120% to 729 million yuan, accounting for 45% of the public cloud business [1][4][9] 2. **Partnership with Xiaomi**: The unique relationship with Xiaomi and Kingsoft Group is expected to drive significant AI computing expenditures towards Kingsoft Cloud, enhancing revenue visibility compared to other AI stocks [1][9][21] 3. **Profitability Challenges**: Adjusted net profit was a loss of 300 million yuan, which was worse than Morgan Stanley's forecast of a loss of 248 million yuan, primarily due to higher-than-expected depreciation costs [1][4][9] 4. **Gross Margin Decline**: Gross margin decreased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year to 14.4%, attributed to increasingly complex supply chain management and the introduction of third-party computing providers. However, it is expected to stabilize around 15% in the future [1][4][9] 5. **Future Growth Expectations**: Management anticipates that the growth rate of cloud business in the second half of 2025 will exceed that of the first half, supported by the Xiaomi-Kingsoft ecosystem, which saw a 70% year-on-year revenue increase to 629 million yuan in Q2 2025 [1][4][9] Financial Performance Highlights 1. **Q2 2025 Financials**: - **Net Revenue**: 2,349 million yuan, exceeding market expectations by 3% [5] - **Gross Profit**: 339 million yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] - **Operating Loss**: 327 million yuan, with adjusted operating loss at 166 million yuan [5] - **EBITDA**: Adjusted EBITDA was 406 million yuan, reflecting a 570% increase year-on-year [5] - **Net Profit Margin**: Reported net profit margin was -19.5% [5] 2. **Revised Target Price**: The target price for Kingsoft Cloud is maintained at $19.00 (previously $18.50) based on a 4x enterprise value/sales multiple for 2025 [1][10][21] Risks and Considerations 1. **Revenue Recovery Risks**: Potential slower-than-expected revenue rebound could impact the company's financial outlook [11][23] 2. **Margin Improvement Risks**: Profit margin improvements may not materialize as quickly as anticipated due to ongoing supply chain complexities [11][23] 3. **Increased Competition**: The cloud computing industry is facing intensified competition, which could affect market share and profitability [11][23] Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Positioning**: Kingsoft Cloud's valuation is positioned between the average multiples of single business cloud service providers (5.9x) and small/mid-cap SaaS stocks (3.8x) [10][22] 2. **Stock Performance**: Year-to-date stock performance shows a significant increase of 40.8%, indicating strong market interest [13] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of Kingsoft Cloud's current performance, future outlook, and associated risks.

Core Insights - The stock market is not a strict zero-sum game; it is fundamentally linked to economic growth and corporate profitability, allowing for potential mutual benefits among investors over the long term [3][23] - Stock price increases can be attributed to two main categories: genuine corporate value growth and speculative market behavior [3][6] Group 1: Genuine Corporate Value Growth - Companies with strong profitability and consistent performance, such as Apple, see their stock prices rise due to real value creation, benefiting long-term shareholders [4][23] - Apple's stock has increased hundreds of times over the past two decades, driven by substantial cash flow from its product ecosystem [4] - The rise in stock prices reflects the wealth generated by the company being distributed among its investors [3] Group 2: Speculative Market Behavior - Companies lacking strong competitive advantages may experience stock price increases driven by market speculation, leading to a cycle of rapid price increases followed by significant declines [6][9] - The GameStop case illustrates how speculative trading can lead to massive price swings, benefiting early investors while later entrants may incur substantial losses [7][9] Group 3: Industry Trends and Structural Opportunities - Stock price increases can also result from favorable industry trends, where companies capitalize on rapid market expansion [10][11] - Netflix's stock growth from 2007 to 2020 was fueled by the explosive growth of the streaming industry, reflecting market share gains rather than just company performance [11] Group 4: Policy and Macro Environment - Stock price increases can be driven by favorable policies or macroeconomic trends, as seen with Tesla, where government incentives for electric vehicles significantly boosted demand and stock prices [12][13] Group 5: Market Expectations and Future Growth Potential - Companies with average short-term performance may see stock price increases based on market expectations of future growth, as demonstrated by Amazon's early stock performance despite initial losses [16][17] Group 6: Structural Changes and Innovation - Stock price increases can also stem from strategic changes, product innovations, or technological advancements, as evidenced by Nvidia's stock growth driven by AI and data center demand [18][19] Group 7: Mergers, Restructuring, and Asset Value Release - Companies can unlock potential value through mergers, asset sales, or strategic restructuring, leading to stock price increases, as seen with Disney's acquisition of 21st Century Fox [21]

Group 1: Computer ETF Performance - The Computer ETF (159998) recorded a transaction volume of 32.22 million yuan as of September 1, 2025, with notable stock movements including a 4.92% increase in Qihua Data (300857) and a 3.34% rise in Runhe Software (300339) [3] - As of August 29, the Computer ETF saw a net inflow of 36.51 million yuan in a single day, with a total growth of 89.82 million yuan over the past month and an increase of 434 million shares over the last six months [3] Group 2: Cloud Computing ETF Performance - The Cloud Computing ETF (517390) increased by 2.03%, with a trading volume of 23.00 million yuan, and notable stock performances including a 17.29% rise in Alibaba-W (09988) and a 9.99% increase in Data Port (603881) [3] - The Cloud Computing ETF experienced net inflows on 4 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 13.17 million yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 7.85% over the past week [3] Group 3: Index Composition and Holdings - The Computer ETF tracks the CSI Computer Theme Index, which includes companies involved in information technology services, application software, system software, and computer hardware [4] - As of August 28, the top ten holdings of the index include leading companies such as iFlytek, Inspur, Hikvision, Kingsoft, and Tonghuashun [4] Group 4: Alibaba's Financial Performance - Alibaba reported a revenue of 33.398 billion yuan for its cloud segment in Q1 of fiscal year 2026, marking a 26% year-over-year increase, with AI-related product revenue growing for eight consecutive quarters [5] - Alibaba's capital expenditure reached 38.6 billion yuan, a significant increase of 220% year-over-year, with over 100 billion yuan invested in AI infrastructure over the past four quarters [5] Group 5: AI and GPU Cloud Insights - The demand for AI computing power remains strong, with companies accelerating the construction of large-scale GPU clusters in response to the competitive landscape [6] - GPU cloud services are seen as a core solution for addressing the mismatch in high-end computing supply and demand, with expectations for continued growth in market penetration [6]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Cloud has denied rumors regarding a large-scale GPU purchase from Cambricon, clarifying that while it supports domestic supply chains, the claim of acquiring 150,000 GPUs is false [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Alibaba's Q1 FY2026 financial report shows a 10% year-on-year revenue growth, with net profit increasing by 76% [3] - Cloud computing revenue reached 33.4 billion RMB, marking a 26% year-on-year growth, significantly up from the previous quarter's 18% growth [3] - AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for eight consecutive quarters [3] Group 2: Strategic Investments - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion RMB over the next three years in AI and cloud infrastructure, averaging over 120 billion RMB annually, positioning itself among the top global tech companies in terms of investment [3] - The company is developing a new AI chip aimed at filling the gap left by NVIDIA in the Chinese market, currently in the testing phase and compatible with NVIDIA's architecture [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the strong financial performance and AI chip news, Alibaba's stock surged nearly 13% in the US market on August 29, with Hong Kong shares rising over 18% in early trading [3] - Cambricon's stock experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop of over 8% after a previous surge that made it the highest-priced stock in A-shares [2][3] Group 4: Industry Insights - Citic Securities reports indicate that Alibaba's latest financial results reflect high growth in capital expenditure and cloud business, with a strong focus on AI infrastructure amidst geopolitical challenges [4] - The report suggests that domestic cloud providers are likely to see a resurgence in capital expenditure driven by AI demand, benefiting companies involved in AI computing, servers, and networking equipment [4]