Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market opened with mixed performance among major industry ETFs, with healthcare and biotechnology ETFs rising nearly 1%, while energy ETFs fell close to 1% [1] Industry Summary - **Healthcare ETF**: Current price at $131.42, increased by $0.96 (+0.74%), with a trading volume of 1.58 million shares and a total market value of $25.15 billion, down 4.10% year-to-date [2] - **Biotechnology Index ETF**: Current price at $120.06, up by $0.82 (+0.69%), with a trading volume of 99,650 shares and a total market value of $9.53 billion, down 9.11% year-to-date [2] - **Energy ETF**: Current price at $85.01, decreased by $0.60 (-0.70%), with a trading volume of 1.36 million shares and a total market value of $21.29 billion, up 0.02% year-to-date [2] - **Global Airline ETF**: Current price at $22.61, increased by $0.10 (+0.47%), with a trading volume of 121,200 shares and a total market value of $712.06 million, down 10.83% year-to-date [2] - **Technology Sector ETF**: Current price at $234.00, decreased by $0.45 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 604,400 shares and a total market value of $74.43 billion, up 0.81% year-to-date [2] - **Financial Sector ETF**: Current price at $51.30, increased by $0.02 (+0.04%), with a trading volume of 3.65 million shares and a total market value of $57.10 billion, up 6.53% year-to-date [2]

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs showed mixed performance, with semiconductor ETFs rising over 1% and global technology stock index ETFs increasing nearly 1%, while utility and energy ETFs declined by over 1% [1] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor ETF price reached 248.30, with an increase of 2.74 (+1.12%), and a trading volume of 714,800 shares, totaling a market value of 29.35 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 2.53% [2] Technology Sector - Global technology stock index ETF priced at 85.42, up by 0.70 (+0.82%), with a trading volume of 5,259 shares and a market value of 11.96 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 0.79% [2] - Technology sector ETF at 234.27, increased by 1.65 (+0.71%), with a trading volume of 414,300 shares and a market value of 745.11 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 0.93% [2] Utility and Energy Sectors - Utility ETF priced at 78.58, decreased by 1.07 (-1.34%), with a trading volume of 853,600 shares and a market value of 11.41 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 4.56% [2] - Energy sector ETF at 85.12, down by 0.65 (-0.76%), with a trading volume of 1,037,900 shares and a market value of 21.32 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 0.14% [2]

| 行业类 V | 当前价 ◆ | 涨跌幅 ÷ | 成交量 ÷ | | 总市值 ; 年初至今 = | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 半导体ETF --- | 241.12 | J +3.71 (+1.56%) | 52.44万股 | 28.50亿 | -0.43% | | | us SMH | | | | | | | | 全球航空业E ... | 22.80 | +0.25 (+1.11%) | 16.61万股 | 7182.00万 | -10.06% | == | | US JETS | | | | | | | | 网络股指数E ... | 248.96 | +2.29 (+0.93%) | 16483股 | 165.31亿 | +2.38% | == | | us FDN | | | | | | | | 科技行业ET ... | 229.64 | +1.94 (+0.85%) | 47.58万股 | 730.40亿 | -1.06% | [] *** | | us XLK | | | | | | | | 可选消费ET ... | 213 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant progress made in the recent China-US Geneva trade talks, which resulted in a substantial reduction or suspension of tariffs imposed after April 2, providing a strong boost to the market [1] - The sectors that are expected to benefit from the tariff reductions include electronics, IT services, software development, and machinery equipment, particularly those with high export dependence [1][2] - The Hong Kong stock market reacted positively to the announcement, with the Hang Seng Technology Index showing significant gains, indicating potential upward momentum for related sectors in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - Short-term beneficiaries of the trade talks are identified as export-oriented companies in sectors such as consumer electronics, components, machinery, and automotive parts, which are likely to show relative performance [2] - The reduction in tariff impacts is expected to improve investor risk appetite, although the short-term performance of dividend stocks may be muted [2] - In the medium term, as tariff shocks diminish, attention should be focused on the recovery of economic conditions, particularly in the AI industry, which is seen as a key growth area [2]

5 月 7 日华创中期策略会上，华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜发表题为《 莫听穿林空雷声，持伞干湿 看雨情》的主题演讲，以下为演讲实录。 【核心观点和结论】 很高兴又到了策略会的时间，又能和各位熟悉的老朋友见面。 题目就是我的观点，近一个多月以来，关税的 雷声每天都在变， 短期如果听雷声去做投资，会非常被动 ；那么我们 投资者 究竟应该看什么、听什么， 怎么在雷声中握好手里的伞？ 我大概用15分钟时间，做一个简短汇报。 我们大的思考逻辑，分三步： 第一步， 先不考虑关税，中美经济目前运行的核心主线是什么？先把各自的地基看清楚；第二步，考虑关税，会怎么 影响核心主线？第三步，稍微做一点主观推演 ， 谈一下主观上一些没法做定量、稍微带点定性的判断看法。 具体的思考逻辑，我们分 三条线： 第一条线看 美国，核心主线是居民超额财富够不够吃下关税的通胀 ？ 我们的判断是， 风险溢价一旦拉破，再结合着 当下美国历史极高的股债共向性，非常容易触发流动性危机。 第二条线看 中国，核心主线是 居民存款再释放的风偏修复能不能持续？以及关税是否会打断这个修复？ 我们会用三 个互动模型讨论三个问题 ： 什么样的经济变化会触 ...

| 行业类 v | 当前价 ÷ | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 成交量 # | | 总市值 = 年初至今 = | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区域银行ET ... | 56.16 | ↑ +0.65 (+1.17%) | 78.68万股 | 46.87 亿 | -6.33% | [] ... | | us KRE | | | | | | | | 可选消费ET ... | 201.33 | +2.24 (+1.13%) | 99362服 | 252.88亿 | -10.01% | [] *** | | us XLY | | | | | | | | 能源业ETF - ... | 81.41 | +0.86 (+1.07%) | 77.63万股 | 203.87 亿 | -4.22% | ( ) == | | us XLE | | | | | | | | 银行业ETF - ... | 52.41 | +0.53 (+1.02%) | 33907股 | 40.57 Z | -4.84% | = == | | us KBE | | | | | | | | 全球 ...

Macro Economic Overview - To counter the impact of tariffs, China has introduced a comprehensive monetary policy package aimed at boosting the stock and real estate markets. This policy will moderately ease liquidity and credit supply, encouraging positive market sentiment, although it cannot fully offset the economic impact of tariffs [2] - The report anticipates that the tariff impacts could reduce China's GDP and CPI growth rates by 1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. It is expected that GDP growth will slow from 5.4% in Q1 2025 to 4.5% in Q2, with a slight rebound to 4.7% in the second half of the year, resulting in an annual growth rate of 4.8% [5] Industry Insights - In the equipment manufacturing sector, global machinery manufacturers are assessing the impact of US tariffs, with most expecting effects to become apparent starting in Q3. Companies like Komatsu are predicted to face significant challenges due to these tariffs [5] - The Chinese insurance industry is set to see an acceleration of long-term investments as regulatory bodies announced a series of financial policies. This includes expanding the scope of long-term investment trials and adjusting risk factors for stock investments, potentially injecting over 150 billion yuan into the market [5] Stock Recommendations - Geely Automobile (175 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 23.00, representing a 37% upside potential [6] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 28.00, indicating a 46% upside [6] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 40.61, suggesting a 24% upside [6] - Alibaba (BABA US) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 157.00, reflecting a 27% upside potential [6] - Tencent (700 HK) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of 625.00, indicating a 28% upside [6]

Market Performance - Semiconductor industry ETF rose by 2.05%, while global airline industry ETF increased by 1.49% and technology industry ETF gained 1% [1] - Consumer discretionary ETF, healthcare ETF, and global technology stock index ETF saw increases of at least 0.71%, with biotechnology index ETF rebounding by 0.67% [1] - Financial sector ETFs, including banking and regional bank ETFs, experienced gains of up to 0.59% [1] - Internet stock index ETF declined by 0.28% [1] ETF Details - Semiconductor ETF closed at $220.02, up by $4.43 (+2.05%), with a total market value of $2.601 billion, down 9.15% year-to-date [2] - Global airline ETF closed at $21.12, up by $0.31 (+1.49%), with a total market value of $66.528 million, down 16.69% year-to-date [2] - Technology sector ETF closed at $215.81, up by $2.14 (+1.00%), with a total market value of $68.64 billion, down 7.02% year-to-date [2] - Consumer discretionary ETF closed at $199.09, up by $1.54 (+0.78%), with a total market value of $25.006 billion, down 11.01% year-to-date [2] - Healthcare ETF closed at $135.36, up by $1.03 (+0.77%), with a total market value of $25.903 billion, down 1.23% year-to-date [2] - Biotechnology index ETF closed at $119.40, up by $0.80 (+0.67%), with a total market value of $9.48 billion, down 9.61% year-to-date [2] - Financial sector ETF closed at $49.45, up by $0.29 (+0.59%), with a total market value of $55.04 billion, up 2.69% year-to-date [2] - Internet stock index ETF closed at $235.80, down by $0.66 (-0.28%), with a total market value of $15.657 billion, down 3.03% year-to-date [2] Sector Performance - Consumer discretionary sector index increased by 1.02% to 1,585.98 [3] - Technology sector index rose by 0.91% to 4,198.36 [3] - Healthcare sector index gained 0.81% to 1,576.66 [3] - Financials sector index increased by 0.62% to 822.44 [3] - Industrials sector index rose by 0.51% to 1,135.1 [3] - Utilities sector index increased by 0.29% to 410.02 [3] - Consumer staples sector index rose by 0.20% to 901.11 [3] - Energy sector index increased by 0.08% to 616.66 [3] - Real estate sector index decreased by 0.02% to 260.75 [3] - Materials sector index declined by 0.50% to 526.31 [3] - Communication services sector index fell by 1.84% to 326.23 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Major industry ETFs in the US experienced an upward trend, with global airline, banking, and regional banking ETFs rising over 1% [1] Industry Summary - **Global Airline ETF**: Current price at 21.09, increased by 1.35% (+0.28), with a trading volume of 73,832 shares. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 16.80% [2] - **Banking ETF**: Current price at 52.25, increased by 1.10% (+0.57), with a trading volume of 86,539 shares. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 5.13% [2] - **Regional Banking ETF**: Current price at 56.03, increased by 1.03% (+0.57), with a trading volume of 961,200 shares. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 6.54% [2] - **Consumer Discretionary ETF**: Current price at 198.99, increased by 0.73% (+1.44), with a trading volume of 186,600 shares. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 11.06% [2] - **Financial Sector ETF**: Current price at 49.47, increased by 0.63% (+0.31), with a trading volume of 1,695,900 shares. Year-to-date performance shows an increase of 2.73% [2] - **Biotechnology ETF**: Current price at 119.34, increased by 0.63% (+0.74), with a trading volume of 76,627 shares. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 9.65% [2] - **Healthcare ETF**: Current price at 134.99, increased by 0.49% (+0.66), with a trading volume of 543,500 shares. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 1.50% [2] - **Semiconductor ETF**: Current price at 215.97, increased by 0.17% (+0.38), with a trading volume of 528,200 shares. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 10.82% [2] - **Technology Sector ETF**: Current price at 213.85, increased by 0.08% (+0.18), with a trading volume of 338,600 shares. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 7.87% [2] - **Utilities ETF**: Current price at 80.57, increased by 0.06% (+0.05), with a trading volume of 916,600 shares. Year-to-date performance shows an increase of 7.20% [2] - **Global Technology ETF**: Current price at 78.66, increased by 0.04% (+0.03), with a trading volume of 4,057 shares. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 7.19% [2] - **Consumer Staples ETF**: Current price at 81.38, increased by 0.04% (+0.03), with a trading volume of 936,200 shares. Year-to-date performance shows an increase of 4.07% [2] - **Internet ETF**: Current price at 236.53, increased by 0.03% (+0.07), with a trading volume of 6,753 shares. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 2.73% [2] - **Energy Sector ETF**: Current price at 80.47, decreased by 0.06% (-0.05), with a trading volume of 1,009,000 shares. Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 5.33% [2]

可选消费ETF(562580)紧密跟踪中证全指可选消费指数，前五大成分股囊括美的集团、比亚迪、格力电 器、海尔智家等消费龙头，汽车和家电占比合计超78%。随着国民经济持续向好发展，我国消费者人均 可支配收入不断上升，消费支出从食品、服装等向交通、医疗、消费电子等方向转变，可选消费板块投 资价值凸显。 在应对国际重大挑战之际，内循环成为驱动我国经济平稳增长的重要压舱石，顺周期板块有望低位复 苏，从而释放业绩弹性，食品饮料、旅游等板块受益。中期看，2025年，稳消费、稳民生被写入今年经 济社会发展总体要求中，并把"全方位扩大国内需求"作为今年十个方面工作任务中的第一条，新一轮供 给侧结构性改革或开启，为价格提供修复动力，今年政府工作报告提出"加强产业统筹布局和产能监测 预警，促进产业有序发展和良性竞争"、"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"。消费板块在过往几年的回调后，"低 预期低估值"+"消费韧性特征下的企稳趋势"将提升消费配置的资金偏好。 东方证券指出，展望五月，尽管外部贸易摩擦仍存在不确定性，但中国资产依然是更有性价比的资产， 经济基本面的韧性也就意味着市场不会互现出现大幅波动，市场震荡上行格局没有发生改变，内需构建 ...