Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" based on positive fundamental outlook and expected outperformance of the industry index compared to the benchmark index [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in the dry bulk market's performance, a focus on the valuation of Hong Kong infrastructure assets, an upward trend in the aviation industry's fundamentals for 2025-2026, and potential price competition and valuation recovery in the express delivery sector for 2025 [1][7][18][20]. Shipping - The container shipping market shows signs of recovery with slight price increases on the US routes, while the dry bulk market, particularly for Panamax vessels, has seen a notable rise in rates due to increased demand from coal and grain shipments [7][11][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade agreements between the US and other countries, which could impact shipping volumes [12][16]. Infrastructure - The report indicates that Hong Kong infrastructure assets still have room for valuation improvement, with stable earnings and dividend expectations from leading highway assets [18]. - The yield on 10Y and 30Y government bonds has slightly increased, suggesting continued investment interest in dividend-paying infrastructure assets [18]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate exceeding 20% in 2024, with a continued double-digit growth forecast for 2025 [20]. - The report notes a recent recovery in express delivery prices following a period of intense price competition, supported by regulatory measures against "involution" in the industry [20]. Aviation - Key performance indicators in the aviation sector are on the rise, with passenger volumes increasing and a low growth rate in supply, indicating a potential stabilization in revenue levels [21][74]. - The report recommends several airlines based on their performance metrics, including China Southern Airlines and Air China [21]. Logistics - The logistics sector shows a slight increase in cross-border transport volumes, with stable short-haul freight rates [22][87]. - The report highlights the potential for significant non-operating income for China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group in 2025, which could positively impact dividends [22].

Tax Policy Impacts - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act (OBBB) aims to extend and expand tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% permanently[1][7] - The Act repeals provisions from the Biden administration aimed at reducing traditional energy consumption, benefiting traditional energy companies[1][7] Indirect Support for Infrastructure and AI - OBBB does not directly fund traditional manufacturing or infrastructure projects but focuses on tax policy and deregulation, which may indirectly support infrastructure and AI development by reducing corporate costs[2][8] - Permanent full expensing provisions for equipment, R&D, and plants allow companies to deduct the full cost of capital investments immediately, reducing financial burdens and encouraging investment in advanced manufacturing[3][9] Opportunity Zones and Investment Attraction - The Act expands Opportunity Zones to attract private capital into economically distressed areas, enhancing investment in projects like smart city technology and logistics hubs[4][10] - Deregulation measures simplify the approval process for infrastructure projects, potentially accelerating project timelines[4][10] Economic Growth and Local Industry - Tax cuts and capacity expansion incentives are expected to enhance the profitability and competitiveness of domestic industrial enterprises in the U.S. market[5][11] - Increased production capacity is anticipated to improve market share and meet local manufacturing demands, while personal tax reductions may boost overall consumption[5][11] Investment Recommendations - Companies that may benefit from the policy's tax cuts and required equipment investments include Vistra, Constellation, Talen Energy, GE Vernova, Schneider Electric, Eaton, Vertiv, Honeywell, Cummins, and Caterpillar[6][12] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected U.S. economic growth, changes in U.S. policy, and geopolitical uncertainties[6][13]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has achieved significant progress with 102 major projects expected to meet their targets by the end of the year [1][5] - China's economy is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [1][3] - The average economic growth rate during the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is 5.5%, with domestic demand contributing 86.4% to this growth [1][3] Economic Growth and Development - The total economic increment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to recreating the Yangtze River Delta region [3] - China's manufacturing sector has consistently added over 30 trillion yuan annually, maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturing economy for 15 consecutive years [3][4] - The country has the largest modern infrastructure networks globally, including highways, high-speed rail, and urban transit systems, which support rapid economic and social development [3] Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic consumption has been the main driver of economic growth, with an average contribution rate of 56.2% over the past four years, an increase of 8.6 percentage points from the previous five-year period [5] - Investment's contribution to economic growth averages 30.2%, focusing on optimizing supply structures and addressing long-term needs [5] - The completion of major infrastructure projects, such as the Guiyang-Nanning high-speed rail, enhances domestic circulation and supports economic stability [6] Social Welfare and Employment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes social welfare, with over one-third of its 20 major indicators focused on improving people's livelihoods, the highest proportion in any five-year plan [7] - Urban employment has stabilized at over 12 million new jobs annually, with significant contributions from the service sector [7] - The country has established the world's largest education, healthcare, and social security systems, with high participation rates in basic insurance programs [7][8]

Economic Stability and Growth - The overall economic operation in the capital has been stable and improving since May, driven by a series of policies aimed at stabilizing employment and the economy [2] Industrial Performance - From January to May, the city's industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year, a 0.2 percentage point increase compared to January to April [3] - Advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industries showed strong growth, with a 16.9% increase, 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The electronics and automotive sectors grew by 27.2% and 13.9%, respectively [3] - The information service industry revenue increased by 13.6% year-on-year, up 1.9 percentage points from January to March [3] - The Beijing Stock Exchange's trading activity has been robust, with the North Exchange 50 Index rising nearly 36% year-to-date, leading among major market indices [3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment grew by 17.8% from January to May, driven by "two heavy" projects and equipment upgrades [4] - High-tech industry investment surged by 81%, while infrastructure investment rose by 16.2% [4] - Total market consumption increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with a 0.3 percentage point improvement from January to April [4] - The integration of commerce, culture, and tourism led to a 4.9% growth in service consumption, with nearly 100 large cultural and sports events held in May, resulting in a 32.1% increase in visitor numbers at key scenic spots [4] - The number of newly established foreign-funded enterprises in May increased by 11.5% year-on-year, a 22.8 percentage point improvement compared to the previous year [4] Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate remained low, with measures taken to meet the employment needs of college graduates [5] - In May, consumer prices decreased by 0.1%, while service prices rose by 0.4% [5] - The city plans to leverage national policy tools to create a favorable development environment, focusing on stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality economic growth [5]

Economic Overview - The national economy maintained stable operation in May, supported by more proactive macro policies, with stable production demand and overall employment situation [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year in May, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61% [2] - The equipment manufacturing industry saw a 9.0% year-on-year increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.6%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.2 and 2.8 percentage points respectively [2] - Key products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles experienced significant production growth of 40.0%, 35.5%, and 31.7% year-on-year [3] - From January to May, the industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year [3] Service Sector - The service production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - The service sector's business activity index was at 50.2 in May, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index rose to 56.5 [5] - From January to May, the service production index increased by 5.9% year-on-year [5] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month [6] - Online retail sales amounted to 60,402 billion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 49,878 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase [6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan from January to May, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [8] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%. However, real estate development investment declined by 10.7% [9] Trade Performance - The total value of goods imports and exports reached 38,098 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [10] - Exports were 22,767 billion yuan, up by 6.3%, while imports decreased by 2.1% [10] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0% in May, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [11][12] - The average urban surveyed unemployment rate from January to May was 5.2% [12] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% [13] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May [13]

Core Insights - The overall fixed asset investment in China from January to May 2025 reached 191,947 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] Group 1: Equipment Investment - The investment in equipment and tools has shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, which is 13.6 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth rate [2] - This segment contributed 63.6% to the overall investment growth, adding 2.3 percentage points to the total [2] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment maintained steady growth, increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, which is 1.9 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth [3] - The contribution rate of infrastructure investment to overall growth was 34.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous period [3] - Notable growth was observed in the water transportation sector, which grew by 27.2%, and the water management sector, which grew by 26.6% [3] Group 3: Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment continued to grow rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, surpassing the overall investment growth by 4.8 percentage points [4] - This sector contributed 56.5% to the overall investment growth, with an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous period [4] - Specific growth rates included 13.2% in consumer goods manufacturing, 7.3% in equipment manufacturing, and 1.6% in raw materials manufacturing [4] - High-tech manufacturing sectors such as aerospace and equipment manufacturing saw a significant increase of 24.2%, while computer and office equipment manufacturing grew by 21.7% [4] Group 4: High-Tech Service Investment - High-tech service investment showed a positive trend, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6%, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous period [5] - The information service sector experienced a remarkable growth of 41.4%, while professional technical services grew by 11.9% [5] Group 5: Private Investment - Private project investment remained stable, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% when excluding real estate development [6] - Notable growth in private investment was seen in the accommodation and catering sector at 25.3%, cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors at 10.0%, and infrastructure at 10.0% [6] Group 6: Green Energy Investment - Green energy investment surged, with a year-on-year increase of 25.4% in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sectors [7] - This segment contributed 43.8% to the overall investment growth, adding 1.6 percentage points to the total [7] - Investments in solar, wind, nuclear, and hydropower collectively grew by 26.6% [7] Group 7: Large Project Investment - Investment in projects with planned total investments of 1 billion yuan or more increased by 6.5% year-on-year, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth [8] - This segment contributed 3.6 percentage points to the overall investment growth [8] Group 8: Future Directions - The focus will be on implementing central government policies, utilizing various government investment tools, and promoting effective investment [9] - There will be an emphasis on advancing high-quality implementation of major construction projects and enhancing the high-end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing sector [9] - Efforts will be made to stimulate private investment and promote its development through effective government investment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The German stock market has shown remarkable performance this year, with the Huaan Fund's German ETF (513030.SH) achieving a return of 31.7%, outperforming most domestic assets [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The German ETF has experienced a bull market for three consecutive years, with a total return of 76.5%, although it still lags behind its benchmark by 17 percentage points while significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index [3][4]. Group 2: ETF Composition - The ETF tracks the DAX Index, which includes 40 major companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, representing over 70% of the German stock market's market capitalization [7]. - Major holdings in the ETF include: - SAP (13.67%): Europe's largest tech company, leading in ERP software with a market cap exceeding $300 billion, focusing on AI and cloud services [8]. - Siemens (9.17%): An industrial giant with a strong presence in infrastructure and medical devices [8]. - Allianz (7.29%): The world's largest insurance group, operating in 70 countries with a market cap over $90 billion [9]. - Deutsche Telekom (6.70%): The largest telecom operator in Europe with extensive international operations [10]. - Approximately 80% of the revenue from these companies comes from international markets, with only 20% from the German domestic market, indicating a decoupling of the DAX Index performance from the local economy [11]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The German government introduced a €460 billion tax reduction plan in 2025, significantly lowering industrial users' electricity costs by 50%, which has reduced manufacturing operational costs [16]. - The European Central Bank has implemented eight consecutive interest rate cuts, maintaining a historical low yield of 2.93% on ten-year German bonds, creating a favorable financing environment for companies [18]. Group 4: Currency and Cost Advantages - The depreciation of the euro against the dollar from 1.11 in 2024 to 1.04 in mid-2025 has enhanced the price competitiveness of German exports, with machinery exports to the U.S. increasing by 9% [20]. - The reduction in industrial electricity costs has further decreased manufacturing expenses, leading to a 19% increase in net profit for BMW despite only a 4% increase in global sales [20]. Group 5: Investment Options - Domestic investors can access the German stock market through two ETFs: Huaan Fund's German ETF (513030.SH) and Jiashi Fund's German ETF (159561.SZ), with management scales of 1.35 billion and 1.64 billion respectively [21]. - Huaan's ETF has a premium of 2.12%, while Jiashi's ETF is at a discount of 0.25%, making the latter potentially safer [21]. - In terms of liquidity, Huaan's ETF has a significantly higher turnover rate of 8.8 times compared to Jiashi's 2.6 times in May [22].

Core Insights - The recent private enterprise symposium and the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law signify strong support and recognition for the role of the private economy in China's development, aiming to boost confidence and market risk appetite [1][3] - In Q1 2025, key indicators of the private economy showed significant recovery, with private enterprises demonstrating resilience and growth potential [2][5] Economic Indicators - In Q1 2025, the added value of private enterprises in large-scale industrial sectors grew by 7.3% year-on-year, surpassing the overall growth rate of all large-scale industrial enterprises [2] - Private investment saw a positive turnaround, with a 0.4% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, reversing the decline from the previous year; manufacturing and infrastructure investments grew by 9.7% and 9.3%, respectively [2] - Private enterprises' import and export volume increased by 5.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, accounting for 56.8% of the total import and export volume, indicating strong competitiveness in international markets [2] Entrepreneurial Confidence - The overall confidence index for entrepreneurs reached 70.62 in Q1 2025, reflecting a 4.28 increase from the first half of 2024, with optimism across various industry dimensions [3] - The development index for small and medium-sized enterprises was 89.5 in Q1 2025, marking the highest level since Q1 2022 [3][4] Market Activity - In Q1 2025, 1.979 million new private enterprises were registered, a 7.1% year-on-year increase, with the total number of registered private enterprises exceeding 57 million, representing 92.3% of all enterprises [4] - The proportion of fully operational enterprises reached 50.4%, an 11 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, indicating a recovery in operational activity [4] Innovation and New Dynamics - The establishment of new "four new" economy private enterprises reached 836,000 in Q1 2025, accounting for over 40% of new private enterprises, with significant growth in internet and modern information technology services [6] - From 2022 to 2024, A-share private enterprises' R&D investment exceeded 650 billion, with R&D intensity reaching 4.31% in 2024, significantly higher than the overall societal R&D intensity [6][7]

Group 1 - Global stock markets experienced volatility in April and May but showed signs of recovery due to trade negotiations and other factors [1][2] - The European political stability and large-scale stimulus plans, along with signs of moderate recovery in the Chinese economy and resilience in the US economy, indicate that global equities may still be an attractive asset class [1][4] - High inflation above historical averages may favor stocks over bonds in the medium term [1] Group 2 - The energy sector was negatively impacted by falling oil prices, making it the worst-performing sector in the MSCI All Country World Index [2] - Defensive stocks, such as consumer staples and utilities, recorded positive returns as investors shifted their focus [2] - Optimism around corporate earnings and sustained growth led to a rebound in information technology and communication services stocks towards the end of May [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks, such as the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and India and Pakistan, may drive market development in Europe, which has suffered losses due to these conflicts [3] - Post-German elections, European political stability and large-scale spending on infrastructure and defense are expected to boost the European economy, presenting interesting investment opportunities [3] - The Chinese economy is projected to show moderate growth by 2025, despite facing structural challenges, with a shift towards innovation and green energy policies [3] Group 4 - The US economy demonstrates resilience with stable growth, strong job creation, and slowing inflation, supported by high levels of technology and infrastructure investment [4] - Consumer spending remains robust, and the market is expected to react less severely to current uncertainties, creating favorable conditions for equities [4] - Global economic slowdown provides diverse growth sources, potentially leading to broader market development [4] Group 5 - Companies in the "infrastructure" theme are expected to benefit from increasing demand for digital and physical solutions, driven by cloud computing, 5G implementation, and smart city projects [5] - The adjustment of global supply chains and investments in renewable energy are stimulating demand for reliable power and logistics infrastructure [5] - The "smart manufacturing" theme holds significant potential as industries adopt automation to reduce costs and enhance productivity [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 02 日 OPEC+决定 7 月增产,义乌快递底部价格略有修复 招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 本周关注：航运方面，OPEC+决定 7 月增产；基础设施方面，关注港股红利配置 价值；航空方面，关注 25-26 年行业基本面上行趋势及市值弹性；快递方面，关 注 25 年价格竞争情况和行业估值修复潜力。 推荐标的：东莞控股、皖通高速、粤高速、青岛港、招商港口。 ❑ 航空：5 月以来受益于需求增长和票价基数较低，收益指标同比大幅提升， 旺季主要指标有望企稳回升。1）高频数据表现上看，5 月 23 日-29 日，国 内机票价（撇除燃油附加费）周环比-2%，同比 2024 年+5%，同比 2019 年 -12%；国内旅客量周环比-2%，同比 2024 年+6%，同比 2019 年+17%。 2）供需基本面角度，出行消费需求有一定的韧性，同时经济和消费刺激政 策利好国内出行需求增长，国际出行需求有望持续向正常化恢复；供给端， 受全球供应链不畅及飞机利用率已经大幅恢复影响供给释放偏紧；同时燃油 成本大幅减轻，展望 25-26 年行业供需再平衡、盈利回升的趋势明确 ...