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5月“小非农”跌至近两年冰点 连续两月远逊预期
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 13:12
Group 1 - U.S. corporate hiring activity has slowed to its lowest level in nearly two years, with job cuts observed in sectors such as business services, education, and healthcare, indicating a continued weakening in labor demand [1][2] - According to ADP Research, private sector employment increased by only 37,000 jobs last month, falling short of all economists' predictions in a survey, marking the second consecutive month of significant underperformance [1][2] - The current job market is under dual pressure: a noticeable slowdown in hiring speed and an extended time for unemployed individuals to find new jobs, with economists expecting more signs of cooling in the labor market in the coming months [2][3] Group 2 - Following the data release, stock index futures and U.S. Treasury yields fell, while President Trump reiterated calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates in response to the current situation [3][4] - Despite the hiring slowdown, wage growth remains strong, with a 7% increase for job switchers and a 4.5% increase for retained employees, according to the ADP report, which covers over 25 million U.S. private sector employees [4] - The upcoming U.S. government employment report for May is expected to show a slowdown in non-farm employment growth compared to the strong performance in April, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable [4]
2025年3月美国行业库存数据点评:美国Q1工业品抢进口大幅透支未来需求
CMS· 2025-06-02 08:04
Overall Inventory Cycle - In March 2025, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 3.47% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.54%[1] - Sales in March 2025 rose by 4.05% year-on-year, up from 3.21% previously[1] - The U.S. was expected to enter an active destocking phase by late 2024, but tariff expectations led to a surge in imports, particularly in industrial and consumer goods, exceeding seasonal norms and potentially overextending future demand[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - As of March 2025, 10 out of 14 major industries were in a passive restocking phase, including chemicals, building materials, and metals[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory growth in March was 40.8%, with chemicals at 87.1%, building materials at 68.9%, and automotive parts at 55.1%, indicating high inventory levels relative to historical data[19] - The oil and gas sector has been in an active destocking phase since March 2025, while other sectors remain in passive restocking[20] - The transportation sector is currently in an active destocking phase, while machinery manufacturing is in a passive destocking phase[21] - Consumer goods, including durable goods and textiles, are also in a passive restocking phase as of March 2025[22]
中国服务贸易发展指数重磅发布,为政策研究、市场分析提供科学依据
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 05:03
Core Insights - The China Service Trade Development Index (CSTDI) has been officially launched, providing a comprehensive evaluation system for service trade in China, filling a significant gap in the industry [2][4] - The report forecasts a substantial growth in service exports, with a comprehensive index expected to reach 113.0% in 2024, surpassing 101.1% in 2023, marking the highest level since 2020 [2][7] Group 1: Key Features of Service Trade Development - The service export industry development index is projected to be 118.0%, indicating a significant recovery in service export scale [4] - The trade balance capability index has improved to 102.5%, reflecting enhanced capacity to balance trade deficits [4] - The knowledge-intensive service export development index is expected to reach 110.0%, showing a 1.8 percentage point increase from the previous year, highlighting the ongoing digital empowerment effect [4] Group 2: Cultural and Structural Developments - The cultural development index and structural index for service exports are projected at 231.7% and 196.0%, respectively, driven by unilateral open measures like visa exemptions [4] - The commercial logistics service export index shows signs of recovery, contributing significantly to the overall rebound in service exports [4] - The life service export development index is expected to reach 177.5%, which is 4.3 times the average growth rate of service exports during the same period, indicating enhanced service consumption supply capacity [4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The report anticipates a growth of approximately 12% in service exports for 2025, despite potential challenges from global economic uncertainties and trade contraction risks [11] - The comprehensive index for service export development is projected to reach 111.6% in 2025, indicating a slight decline from 2024 but still reflecting a positive trend in development quality [11] - Structural challenges remain, including increased pressure on traditional service exports and a persistent trade deficit in service trade, which has not shown significant improvement [9]
交运ETF(561320)涨超1%,铁路货运韧性及高速通行量增长引关注
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-28 05:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights significant progress in China's transportation infrastructure, particularly in high-speed rail and bridge projects, with infrastructure investment increasing by 5.8% year-on-year [1] - In April 2025, the national railway freight volume showed a steady increase, with a total of 428 million tons sent, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, and a cumulative total of 1.681 billion tons for the first four months, up 2.0% year-on-year [1] - The launch of the first grain multimodal transport "single document" train significantly reduced transportation time to 13 days, effectively lowering logistics costs [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai-Chongqing-Chengdu high-speed railway segment from Wuhan to Yichang has begun joint debugging and testing, designed for a speed of 350 kilometers per hour [1] - The transportation ETF (561320) tracks the transportation index (000945), which reflects the overall performance of representative listed companies in the transportation sector, including railways, highways, waterways, and aviation [1]
已造成巨额损失高达152亿!泰国严查代持企业
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 01:47
泰国政府近期重拳整治外资非法经营"代持企业"问题,初步调查发现相关非法经营活动已造成高达152.88亿泰铢(约合34亿人民币)的经济损失。该行动 是继"代持企业大清查第一期"之后的进一步深化,由泰国商务部与泰国中央调查局(CIB)联合展开,重点打击外资通过泰国人名义代为注册公司以规避 本地法律的行为。 泰国商务部长皮猜表示,泰国总理佩通坦高度关注此类非法经营活动,认为其严重影响国内中小企业的发展环境。他指出,全球经济变局加剧了非法资本 的流动风险,泰国亟需加强制度防线。 图:2024年4月24日,泰国警察突袭北榄府的一间仓库,发现大量走私、假冒等非法产品于网上销售。 图:2024年12月4日,泰国商务部和中央调查局在"代持企业大清查第二期"行动联合新闻发布会上展示了从代持企业查获的证据。 据2024年5月21日召开的外国企业和产品违法行为管理委员会第五次会议披露,过去九个月间,执法机关共处理39186起涉及非法或不合格网络产品案件, 造成损失超过20.74亿泰铢。此外,对价值低于1500泰铢的进口商品征税也取得阶段性成果,征税总额达17.96亿泰铢。 图:2025年5月1日,泰国警方启动"代持企业大清查第三期 ...
【财经早晚报】台积电发强硬声明;王健林再卖48座万达广场;中石油下属子公司组织团购房烂尾
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 09:52
Group 1 - Credit bond ETFs will soon implement a pledge-style repurchase system, with multiple public fund institutions' credit bond ETFs meeting the criteria to be included in the repurchase collateral pool [2] - The new medical credit evaluation regulations will enforce stricter measures, requiring untrustworthy pharmaceutical companies to reduce prices as a corrective action [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight decline, while the nuclear power sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks reaching their daily limit [3][4] Group 2 - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar both surpassed 7.17, marking a new high in over six months, with the onshore rate rising over 200 points from the previous close [4] - The bond market in China saw a total issuance of 79.62 trillion yuan in various bonds last year, with a total custody amount reaching 177 trillion yuan by year-end [4] - Meituan reported a first-quarter revenue of 86.56 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, with its core local business also showing steady development [8] Group 3 - Xiaomi's YU7 car models have sold out in some versions, with second-hand platforms marking up prices by 100-200 yuan [7] - Wang Jianlin is selling 48 Wanda Plaza locations to a consortium including Tencent, with the transaction recently receiving unconditional approval from regulatory authorities [6] - A subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation organized a group purchase of properties that have not been delivered for over nine years, affecting funds exceeding one billion yuan [7]
上海开辟进出口第四物流通道:TIR国际公路运输业务双向贯通
news flash· 2025-05-26 06:14
上海海关26日公布,装载3辆二手新能源车的集装箱卡车,23日从上海出发驶往白俄罗斯首都明斯克。 这是上海首单TIR国际公路运输出口货物,标志着上海进出口TIR国际公路运输业务双向贯通。2024年3 月6日,上海首单进口TIR国际公路运输业务在上海海关所属上海车站海关监管下落地。截至目前,上 海车站海关共监管TIR跨境运输业务3批,货值111.4万元人民币。(新华财经) ...
“集中处理”不能变成“集中排污”,工业园区污水处理酿新规
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 02:17
Core Points - The article highlights the need for new pollution discharge standards for wastewater treatment facilities in industrial parks to mitigate environmental risks and protect aquatic ecosystems and public health [1][4][5] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is currently soliciting public opinions on the draft technical guidelines for establishing these new discharge standards [1][4] Group 1: Current Situation - There are currently 2,962 industrial parks across 31 provinces and regions in China, with nearly 600 being chemical parks [2] - Industrial parks typically handle wastewater from various sources, including production wastewater from enterprises, domestic sewage, and wastewater from port operations [2][4] - The wastewater characteristics vary significantly among different types of industrial parks, such as single-industry parks and comprehensive parks [2][4] Group 2: Issues Identified - Existing discharge standards for industrial parks are often inadequate, with incomplete pollution control projects leading to high environmental risk [1][4] - The wastewater quality from industrial parks differs significantly from municipal sewage, necessitating tailored discharge standards [1][4][6] Group 3: Proposed Regulations - The draft guidelines propose comprehensive pollution control measures, considering various pollutants and their characteristics based on incoming water quality [4][5] - The new standards will allow for differentiated discharge limits based on the environmental quality requirements of receiving water bodies [5][6] - The regulations aim to ease the burden on enterprises by allowing negotiated indirect discharge limits, reducing the need for additional wastewater treatment facilities [5][6]
中国神华(601088):煤电联营强韧性 持续高分红彰显重回报
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-22 02:20
Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua's 2024 revenue decreased by 1.4% to 338.375 billion yuan, with net profit down 1.7% to 58.671 billion yuan, indicating a challenging financial environment due to falling coal prices and rising production costs [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 69.585 billion yuan, a significant decline of 21.1%, and a net profit of 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year [1] - The weighted average return on equity for 2024 was 14.04%, a decrease of 0.84 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Coal Division - Coal production in 2024 reached 327 million tons, an increase of 0.8%, while sales volume rose by 2.1% to 459 million tons [1] - The average selling price of coal (excluding tax) was 564 yuan/ton, down 3.4% year-on-year, with production costs rising by 1.45% to 180.439 billion yuan [1] - The coal division's revenue for 2024 was 268.618 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7%, with total profit down 7.1% to 54.365 billion yuan [1] Power Generation Division - In 2024, the power generation segment showed resilience with a sales volume of 210.28 billion kWh, up 5.3%, although the average selling price fell by 2.7% to 403 yuan/MWh [2] - The total profit for the power generation division increased by 2.0% year-on-year [2] Transportation and Coal Chemical Divisions - The transportation segment saw a stable growth with a turnover of 312.1 billion ton-km, up 0.9%, while revenue reached 43.115 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% [3] - The coal chemical division's revenue was 5.633 billion yuan, down 7.6%, with a gross margin of 5.8%, a decline of 5.4 percentage points [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to deepen coal-electricity integration and expand new projects, with significant investments in coal production and power generation projects [5] - The company is expected to maintain high cash dividends, with a proposed dividend of 2.26 yuan per share, totaling 44.903 billion yuan, representing 76.5% of net profit [6] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 54.117 billion, 55.637 billion, and 55.035 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.72, 2.80, and 2.77 yuan [6]
欧盟就逐步放松对叙利亚制裁达成一致
news flash· 2025-05-20 10:47
欧盟27个成员国外长当天批准了一项路线图,该路线图将根据叙利亚实际情况暂停对叙制裁。首批可能 放松的限制措施涉及 银行、能源和运输行业。 ...