反内卷预期再度升温，提振市场情绪 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端硅铁、锰硅开工率与产量均双双下降，近期随着产区电价整体上涨，厂家亏损态势加剧，供应端延续下降趋势。 需求方面，钢联数据显示，五大品种钢材产量与表需整体继续下降，生铁产量继续下降，且从高炉检修计划推算，生铁产量下降的 趋势预计将维持到12月底，对原料端需求仍有压力。成本端方面，产区铁合金电价上涨之后近期平稳运行，海外锰矿矿山1月美金 报价整体均小幅上涨。总体来看，基本面呈现供需双降格局，成本端支撑较为明显。 市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but suppressed by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - After macro - events are settled, the trading logic of iron ore returns to fundamentals. With restrained shipments, steel mills' restocking needs, and coking coal price concessions, the downside space of iron ore prices is expected to be limited [20] - As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve. Coke spot still has room for price cuts from a valuation perspective, and attention should be paid to the progress of the steel mills' third - round price cut [29] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are currently weak. Although the futures prices rebounded due to relevant policies, the rebound may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [45] - With the strengthening expectation of new capacity production, the over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying. The weakening demand from glass and high inventories restrict the price of soda ash [59] - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Currently, high intermediate inventories and off - season demand put pressure on the spot market [82] Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3120, 3119, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3276, 3269, and 3282 yuan/ton respectively [4] - The month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different changes compared to the previous day [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions had minor changes on December 19, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China was 3325 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed slightly [8][10] - **Other Ratios** - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore were all 4; the ratios of rebar to coke were all 2 on December 19, 2025 [17] Iron Ore - **Price Data** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 798, 780, and 758 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 1, 2.5, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [21] - The basis of different contracts showed a downward trend [21] - **Fundamental Data** - The daily average pig iron output was 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons [24] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios** - On December 19, 2025, the spreads of coking coal and coke contracts showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 195 yuan/ton [32] - The coking profit, mine - coke ratio, etc. also changed [32] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The immediate coking profit was 24 yuan/ton [35] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 19, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 90 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 48 yuan/ton; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton [46] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 82 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 28 yuan/ton; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5500 yuan/ton [47] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1120, 1176, and 1236 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 17, 17, and 14 yuan/ton respectively [60] - The month - spreads also changed [60] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable. The basis of soda ash in different regions showed a downward trend [60] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of glass 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 941, 1041, and 1138 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 12, 21, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [83] - The month - spreads and basis of glass contracts changed [83] - **Sales and Production Data** - The sales - to - production ratios of glass in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, etc. showed different trends in December 2025 [84]

| 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | 盘面 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5200 | 80 | 100 | 5500 | 主力合约 | 5592 | 46 | 174 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5250 | 50 | 130 | 5600 | 01合约 | 5478 | 38 | 126 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5170 | 20 | 20 | 5500 | 05合约 | 5546 | 44 | 164 | | | 陕西#72 | 5180 | 80 | 100 | 5480 | 09合约 | 5616 | 46 | 172 | | | 陕西#75 | 5600 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -92 | 34 | -74 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5650 | 50 | 150 | | 1-5月差 | -68 ...

银河期货研报：供应端，随着电价上涨，企业亏损加剧，青海地区部分厂家近期新增检修，供应端延续 下行趋势。需求方面，钢联数据显示，钢材库存虽然保持去化，但钢材产量与表需双双下降，对原料端 需求仍有压力。宏观方面，反内卷和控制高能耗预期再度升温，对硅铁有所提振，但基本面供需双弱配 合不足，总体来看延续底部震荡。 【市场资讯】 12月17日，郑商所硅铁期货仓单12972张，环比上个交易日减少96张。 近日甘肃某大厂2台生产72硅铁炉子开始转产，其中一台转低铝硅铁，1台转97硅。内蒙古包头某硅铁厂 检修一台45000kva硅铁炉，减停产情况增加，对价格有一定支撑。 分析观点： 周三，硅铁现货价格持平，硅铁主产区72硅铁自然块现金含税出厂5100-5200元/吨，75硅铁价格报5600- 5700元/吨。 (12月18日)全国硅铁价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | 地 | | | 牌号:FeSi75～B;粒度等级/mm:自然 | 宁夏地区 | 5200元/ | 市场价 | ...

铁合金早报 成本利润 免责 声明 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建 议内容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和 建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决 策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司 授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障 或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造 变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 需求 库存 数据来源：Mysteel、永安研究中心整理 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 ...

陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-12-18 【行情资讯】 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3084 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 3 元/吨（0.097%）。当日注册仓单 57057 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 160.4729 万手，环比减少 10413 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3245 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 1 元/吨（-0.03%）。 当日注册仓单 103404 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 119.9 ...

2025年12月18日 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：夜盘黑色推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：夜盘黑色推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 3 | | 硅铁：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 0. 92% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 768. 0 | 7.0 | | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓( ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 日变动 | 收盘价 | | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5546 | 64 | 112 | 270107 | -12241 | 257884 | -6534 | | SM主力合约 | 5758 | 22 | 34 | 130766 | -29544 | 276107 | -2682 | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 日变动 | | | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5280 | 0 | 80 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5540 | 0 | 20 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 52 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro - positive factors faded, and steel pricing reverted to fundamentals. Supply is affected by iron - water production cuts, but profit rebounds may slow down the cut - off speed. Demand is seasonally weak due to shrinking real - estate steel use and construction restrictions, and new export regulations suppress export expectations. The overall trend of steel is oscillating weakly [3]. - After macro - events, the trading logic of iron ore has returned to fundamentals. With restrained shipments from major mines, falling freight rates, low steel - mill inventories, and high coking - coal production and inventory, the downside of iron - ore prices is limited [21]. - For coking coal, supply changes are limited, but steel - mill profit pressure leads to iron - water production cuts. Coking enterprises control procurement, and mine inventory pressure is increasing, so short - term coal prices will be under pressure. For coke, production has declined slightly due to environmental protection. After two rounds of price cuts, if there is no policy intervention, coke supply - demand may deteriorate, and prices may continue to fall [31]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, but news from relevant departments has led to a price rebound. However, price increases may stimulate enterprises to hedge, suppressing prices [46]. - With the strengthening of new - capacity production expectations, the over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying. Glass cold - repair is accelerating, weakening the rigid - demand expectation. Although exports are high, high upper - and middle - stream inventories restrict prices [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, affecting far - month pricing. Near - month contracts will follow the delivery logic, and currently, high intermediate inventories and off - season demand create pressure on spot prices [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed minor fluctuations compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3095 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed slightly. The rebar 01 - 05 month - spread was 11 yuan/ton on December 17, up 2 yuan from the previous day [4]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices and Basis - On December 17, 2025, the summary prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed little change. The summary price of rebar in China was 3299 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day [9]. - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions was mostly negative or showed a downward trend. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was not available on December 17, while it was 190 yuan/ton the previous day [9]. 3.1.3 Other Ratios - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on December 17, 2025, compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 [18]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Futures Prices and Basis - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of iron - ore contracts increased slightly compared to the previous day. The 01 contract closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [22]. - The basis of iron - ore contracts decreased. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [22]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data - From November 14 to December 12, 2025, the average daily iron - water production decreased by 7.68 tons, the 45 - port shipping volume decreased by 7.76 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 76.1 tons [25]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 3.3.1 Futures Spreads and Ratios - On December 17, 2025, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 162.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day [34]. - The coking profit on the disk was 21 yuan/ton, up 17.353 yuan from the previous day [34]. 3.3.2 Spot Prices and Profits - On December 17, 2025, the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions mostly remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [37]. - The immediate coking profit was 21 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [37]. 3.4 Ferroalloys 3.4.1 Silicon Iron - On December 17, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 76 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan from the previous day. The silicon - iron 01 - 05 month - spread was - 62 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [47]. - The silicon - iron spot prices in different regions showed minor changes. The silicon - iron spot price in Ningxia was 5220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day [47]. 3.4.2 Silicon Manganese - On December 17, 2025, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 132 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan from the previous day. The silicon - manganese 01 - 05 month - spread was - 60 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [48]. - The silicon - manganese spot prices in different regions were mostly stable or increased slightly. The silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [48]. 3.5 Soda Ash 3.5.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the soda - ash 05 contract was 1170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - spread (9 - 1) was 94 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day [61]. - The basis of soda ash in different regions decreased. The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 27 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan from the previous day [61]. 3.5.2 Spot Prices - On December 17, 2025, the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were mostly stable. The heavy - alkali market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [61]. 3.6 Glass 3.6.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1038 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - spread (9 - 1) was 176 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [84]. - The basis of the glass 01 contract in different regions increased. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 68 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day [84]. 3.6.2 Sales and Production - From December 5 - 12, 2025, the glass sales - to - production ratios in different regions fluctuated. The Shahe sales - to - production ratio on December 12 was 59% [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the report 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on December 17, 2025, the prices of宁夏72 and 内蒙72 were 5150 and 5200 respectively, with daily changes of -50 and -20, and weekly changes of 50 and 80. The prices of different contracts on the disk also had corresponding changes [2] - For silicon manganese, the prices of different regions such as 内蒙6517, 宁夏6517, etc. had different daily and weekly changes on the same day [2] Supply - The report presents the historical production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, including monthly and weekly production, as well as the capacity utilization rate of enterprises in different regions [5] - It also shows the historical production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, and the procurement volume and price data of HeSteel Group [7] Demand - The report provides historical data on the demand volume of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, and also shows the production data of related products such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, etc., which are related to the demand for ferroalloys [5][8] Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, it shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in different regions (China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi) from 2021 - 2025, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days in different regions [6] - For silicon manganese, it presents the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, inventory average available days, and inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [8] Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, it shows the electricity price data in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi), the market price of raw materials such as semi - coke, and the production cost, disk profit, and spot profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 [6] - For silicon manganese, it shows the profit data of different regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North Region, South Region) from 2021 - 2025, as well as the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract on the disk [8]