更新时间： 北京时间9月23日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格弱势震荡，今日开盘报2652.5美元/吨，现报每吨 2646美元/吨，跌幅0.34%，盘中最高触及2657.5美元/吨，最低下探2643美元/吨。 LME铝期货行情回顾： 9月22日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 9月22日，上期所铝期货仓单70761吨，环比上个交易日减少1198吨。 【铝市场消息速递】 9月22日，电解铝现货沪伦比值为7.74，进口盈亏：-1783.63元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-1850.55元/ 吨。 9月22日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单404675吨。注销仓单109225吨，持平。铝库存513900 吨，持平。 LME铝 2678.0 2682.5 2635.0 2655.0 -0.78% ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views -成材震荡整理运行 后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝锭预计价格短期偏弱调整 关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨 安徽省6家短流程钢厂部分已停产或计划1月中旬左右停产 日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日 10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3% 同比增长43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行 价格创近期新低 供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观 价格重心下移 今年冬储低迷 对价格支撑不强 [4] 氧化铝 -氧化铝基本面维持过剩格局 供应端国内运行产能高位 进口窗口开启 库存高位 需求端国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率较上周小幅增加0.1个百分点至62.2% 与去年同期相比下降1.3个百分点 [4] -截至上周四 全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11032万吨/年 运行总产能9233万吨/年 全国氧化铝周度开工率较上周上调0.92个百分点至83.69% [4] 铝锭 -9月22日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存63.8万吨 持平于上周四库存 较上周一上涨0.1万吨 9.16 - 9.21期间国内铝锭出库量共计12.23万吨 环比增加1.47万吨 [4] -宏观降息预期兑现 关注国内政策推进 当下过渡到金九银十 宏观与基本面带来支撑 宏观靴子落地 预计价格短期持高位整理 后续关注库消走势 [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-23 价格回调带动现货成交向好 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20750元/吨，较上一交易日变化-60元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-20元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价20710元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至-60元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20700元/吨，较上一交易日变化-60元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-65元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-22日沪铝主力合约开于20755元/吨，收于20745元/吨，较上一交易日变化-75元/吨，最 高价达20830元/吨，最低价达到20735元/吨。全天交易日成交118717手，全天交易日持仓236067手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-22，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存63.8万吨，较上一期变化0.0吨，仓单库存70761 吨，较上一交易日变化-1198吨，LME铝库存513900吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-22SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2970元/吨，山东价格录得2940元/吨，河南价格录得 3020元/吨，广西价格录得 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the stock index futures market, the TMT sector is booming, but the overall market volume is shrinking. The bond market is affected by factors such as central bank policies and market sentiment, showing a mixed situation. The precious metals market is driven by overseas political turmoil and the divergence of Fed officials' attitudes, with prices reaching new highs. The shipping index shows a volatile trend, and the commodity futures market, including non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products, also presents different supply - demand and price trends [2][5][8][11]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, A - shares strengthened in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.55%. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose with the index, but the basis was deeply discounted. The consumer electronics sector led the rise, while the consumer - related sectors declined [2][3]. - **News**: Domestic news includes a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" of the financial industry. Overseas, there are differences between South Korea and the US on a $350 billion investment [3][4]. - **Funding**: On September 18, the trading volume of A - shares decreased. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market turned to shock. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 to collect premiums when the index pulls back [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts all rose, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds continued to improve [6]. - **Policy**: The central bank's monetary policy is supportive, and it will ensure liquidity and promote the decline of social financing costs [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still mixed. It is recommended to operate within the range, and consider the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to the political turmoil in Argentina and the divergence of Fed officials' attitudes towards interest rate cuts, the precious metals market was driven by risk - aversion sentiment, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs [8][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will maintain high - level volatility, and it is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is above $41 [10]. - **Funding**: The Fed's loose monetary policy stimulates institutional investors to increase their holdings of ETFs [10]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of September 22, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes from different shipping companies are in different ranges [11]. - **Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index decreased by 14.3%. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 9%, the Shanghai - US West freight rate increased by 31%, and the Shanghai - US East freight rate decreased by 23% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of September 22, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.35% year - on - year. The eurozone's August composite PMI was 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic**: The futures market was volatile. It is expected that the spot inflection point will appear in mid - to - late October, and attention can be paid to the upward opportunities of the 12 and 02 contracts [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is bearish, and it is advisable to consider the spread arbitrage between the 12 - month and 10 - month contracts [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 22, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the market procurement sentiment weakened when the price returned to around 80,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the future interest rate cut path is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and inflation data [13][14]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production in August decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease in September [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the price correction, and the overall spot trading improved [15]. - **Inventory**: LME and domestic social inventories decreased, while COMEX inventory increased [16]. - **Logic**: The short - term driving force is weak. The market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides support for the price [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 and 81,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly, and the supply pattern was gradually loosening [17]. - **Supply**: In August, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected to continue to increase slightly in September [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [18]. - **Logic**: The market is in a situation of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". It is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 and 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 22, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the market trading activity increased [19]. - **Supply**: In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased [20]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries were in the process of recovery [20]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [20]. - **Logic**: The macro environment is generally positive, but the inventory is still in the accumulation stage. It is expected to fluctuate between 20,600 and 21,000 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. It is expected that the operating rate will increase slightly in September [22]. - **Demand**: In August, the terminal demand for cast aluminum alloy was weak, but it is expected to recover moderately in September [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and some areas' inventories were close to full [22]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the cost support is significant. The demand is gradually recovering, and the spot price is expected to remain firm in the short term [23]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: On September 22, the average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased slightly, and some downstream enterprises replenished stocks at low prices [23][24]. - **Supply**: The import TC of zinc concentrate continued to rise, and the domestic refined zinc production is expected to decrease slightly in September but increase year - on - year [24]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries increased in the peak season, and the inventory of raw materials increased [25]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [25]. - **Logic**: The short - term driving force is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate between 21,500 and 22,500 yuan/ton [26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On September 22, the price of 1 tin increased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The trading activity decreased after the price increase [26][27]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore import volume in August was at a low level, and the tin ingot import volume decreased [28]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the solder industry increased in August, but the overall market is still in a tight - balance situation [29]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the social inventory decreased [29]. - **Logic**: The supply side provides support for the price. Attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [30]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of September 22, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased slightly [30]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level and is expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and stainless steel is weak, while the demand for alloys is relatively good. The price of nickel sulfate has increased recently but may face pressure in the medium term [31]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is at a high level and increased, while the domestic social inventory increased slightly and the bonded area inventory decreased [31]. - **Logic**: The macro environment is weak, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 120,000 and 125,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of September 22, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is firm, the price of nickel iron is stable, and the price of chromium ore is rising [34]. - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in August and September increased [34]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The market is in a state of narrow - range fluctuation. The cost support is significant, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On September 22, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly [37]. - **Supply**: The production in August increased, and it continued to increase in September. The supply is affected by new projects and imports [37][38]. - **Demand**: The demand is stable and optimistic, and the seasonal performance is weakened. The demand in September and October is expected to increase [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased last week, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [38]. - **Logic**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan/ton in the short term [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased slightly [39]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of raw materials is affected by production restrictions and supply - demand relationships. The profit of steel products has declined [40]. - **Supply**: The production of iron elements increased in the first eight months, and the production of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased [40]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was basically flat in the first eight months. The export of steel products supported the valuation [40]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased, with rebar inventory decreasing and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. It is recommended to go long lightly and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is expected to continue to converge [43]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of September 22, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders were stable or increased slightly [44]. - **Futures**: The main contract of iron ore increased slightly [44]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties is positive [45]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production and blast furnace operating rates increased, while the steel mill profitability decreased slightly [45]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [45]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average dredging volume increased, and the steel mill inventory increased [45]. - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures fluctuated and declined. The spot auction price showed signs of stabilization and rebound [47][49]. - **Supply**: The coal mines in the main production areas continued to resume production, and the import coal price followed the futures price [49]. - **Demand**: The pig iron production continued to increase, and the downstream replenishment demand increased [49]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory increased slightly, with coal mines, ports, and steel mills reducing inventory and coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increasing inventory [49]. - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal market is moving towards a tight - balance state. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [49]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures fluctuated and declined. Some coking enterprises started to raise prices [50][52]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 17 yuan/ton [50]. - **Supply**: The coking enterprises in the north have high enthusiasm for resuming production [52]. - **Demand**: The steel mills continued to resume production, and the demand for coke was supported [52]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory increased slightly, with the coking plant inventory decreasing and the steel mill and port inventories increasing [52]. - **Viewpoint**: The coke spot price is expected to rebound. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the spread arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [52]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The domestic spot prices of soybean meal increased on September 22, and the trading volume increased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was zero [53]. - **Fundamentals**: Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives. The US is expected to increase soybean planting next year, and the soybean planting in Brazil has started [53][54]. - **Market Outlook**: The cancellation of the export tax in Argentina put pressure on the US soybean and domestic oil - meal markets. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend [56]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated weakly, with prices in various regions decreasing [57]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased. The enthusiasm for slaughtering by farmers and second - fattening increased [57]. - **Market Outlook**: The pressure on live pig slaughter is high, and the spot price is difficult to improve before the National Day. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread arbitrage opportunities between different contracts [58].

除中国和未报告地区外，8月原铝产量为229.9万吨，日均产量为7.41万吨。 9月22日（周三），国际铝业协会(IAI)公布的数据显示，8月全球原铝产量为627.7万吨，原铝日均产量 为20.25万吨。 ...

行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 23 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 铝观点： 美联储降息靴子落地，但周一中国 5 年期 LPR 维持不变，国新办新闻发布会 亦未涉及短期政策调整，A 股走弱，日内沪铝冲高回落延续调整态势，主力 2511 收跌 0.36%报 20745，10-11 转为升水 5，远月尚呈现小幅 contango 结构，进口窗 口保持关闭，现货进口亏损扩大至-1780 元/吨。北方国产铝土矿仍未恢复生产， 年内复产概率低，北方矿价有上涨动力，但下游氧化铝现货价格走跌，压价意愿 增强，矿价上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and future prospects [1] Summary by Categories Company Actions - The company plans to repurchase 276,000 shares at a total cost of HKD 7.1493 million [1] - The buyback price per share ranges from HKD 25.62 to HKD 25.96 [1] Financial Implications - The total expenditure for the buyback reflects the company's strategy to enhance shareholder value [1]

"狼来了！"喊第一遍和第二遍，有可能是虚惊一场，但是到了第三次， 之后在6月宣布，要将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品关税再次提升到50%。终于在8月，美国工业与安全局已将407个产品编码加入关税清单，这些商品将面 临额外50%的关税。但是这个加征关税的政策，对于我们影响很小，我们直接出口到美国的钢铝商品很少。2024年我国对美国出口钢材仅有47万吨，2025 年上半年仅仅出口23.6万吨。 但是对于转口贸易国影响比较大，例如越南，出口到美国的钢材比较多，过去享受免税待遇。但是此次对等关税之后，转口贸易免税之路也被中断了。例 如越南本身也做不了了，所以后续影响也不够大。但是真正被"狼来了"吓住的，可能还是加拿大、墨西哥、巴西这三国，因为他们之前吃了特朗普亲自喂 出的毒蜜丸。 在特朗普第一任总统任期内，对于全球的其他国家进口的钢铁征收25%的关税，对铝征收10%的关税。但是本着北美自由贸易协定和同巴西当时总统（博 索纳罗被称为"巴西小特朗普"）的友好关系，绝对对这三国的钢铝制品给予免税配额。想想美国国内市场多大啊！其他国家要交关税推高了成本，这三国 商品免税多有竞争力啊，从此三国对美国的额钢铝商品出口越来越多。 可是真 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates in September, which was in line with expectations and neutral. In the short term, the positive news has been exhausted, and in the long term, a new interest - rate cut cycle has begun. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - data guidance [6]. - Before the holiday, with the Fed's September FOMC meeting outcome in line with expectations and neutral, the short - term macro positive news has landed. The long - position funds in the market have left, and the market has returned to range - bound trading. It is expected that the price will fluctuate between 20,600 and 21,000. It is recommended to go long on dips and bet on the peak - season expectations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina - Industry Fundamentals 3.1.1 Supply - In August 2025, the total alumina production capacity in China was 11,462 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19% and a month - on - month increase of 160 million tons. The in - production capacity was 9,505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.32% and a month - on - month increase of 40 million tons [11]. - In August 2025, China's alumina output was 792.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 36 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 6,052.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [14]. - In August 2025, China's alumina开工率 was 82.93, slightly lower than the same period last year and a month - on - month decline of 0.82%. The smelting profit declined slightly compared with the end of July. The in - production capacity continued to recover, but the开工 rate declined slightly month - on - month [17]. - In August 2025, China's alumina net exports were 8.56 million tons, showing a net - export pattern for 17 consecutive months, with a slight month - on - month decline. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative alumina net exports were 126.16 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [21]. 3.1.2 Demand - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 3,014 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [24]. 3.1.3 Cost - The prices of domestic and foreign bauxite remained unchanged week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $74.5 per ton, and that of Australian bauxite was reported at $70 per ton, both unchanged from last week [27]. - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan per ton, or 1.35% [30]. 3.1.4 Profit - The current full production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 yuan per ton. The smelting profit was 196.7 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 72.6 yuan per ton [33]. - The alumina import profit was 184 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 126 yuan per ton [36]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of September 18, the port inventory of alumina was 3 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.2 million tons [39]. 3.1.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply pattern. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In August, the oversupply volume increased slightly month - on - month [42]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, China's total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52% and unchanged month - on - month. The in - production capacity was 4,437.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99% and a month - on - month increase of 15 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.61, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 3,014 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [48]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum开工率 was 98.11, a year - on - year increase of 1.46% and a month - on - month increase of 0.33%, at a historically high level with limited upside space [51]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports were 19.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33 million tons and a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 million tons. The import channel has gradually opened in recent years [56]. - On September 18, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 20,930 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 60 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap spread was 950 yuan per ton, a week - on - week convergence of 50 yuan per ton [58]. - In August 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 17.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3% and a month - on - month increase of 1.21 million tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative scrap aluminum imports were 134.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.26%. The current import volume is at a relatively high level compared to historical data, but may decline after August due to tariff policies [61]. 3.2.2 Demand - In August 2025, China's aluminum product output was 554.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% and a month - on - month increase of 6.45 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 4,378.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. A seasonal rebound is expected later [64]. - In August 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 163.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% and a month - on - month increase of 9.9 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 1,232.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% [67]. 3.2.3 Cost - The spot prices of domestic and foreign alumina continued to decline week - on - week [70]. - The price of pre - baked anodes remained unchanged week - on - week at 5,627.5 yuan per ton [73]. - The prices of dry - process aluminum fluoride and cryolite remained unchanged week - on - week, at 9,580 yuan per ton and 8,390 yuan per ton respectively [76]. 3.2.4 Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was 16,575 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton. The overall profit was 4,385 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan per ton [79]. - The current electrolytic aluminum import loss was 1,644 yuan per ton, a week - on - week significant widening of 265 yuan per ton [82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of September 18, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in mainstream consumption areas was 64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 million tons and an increase of 0.2 million tons during the week. The overall social inventory level was still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [85]. - In August 2025, the monthly electrolytic aluminum spot inventory was 62.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 7.7 million tons, at a relatively low historical level [88]. - As of September 18, the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods was 13.02 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.01 million tons and a decline of 0.54 million tons during the week. The current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to historical data [91]. 3.2.6 Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China was between 20,720 and 20,920 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 210 yuan per ton. The spot discount converged, and downstream buyers were still somewhat resistant to high prices [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both domestic and overseas alumina supplies are abundant, especially the overseas prices have accelerated their decline in the past week. The theoretical import window has slightly opened. If it persists, increased imports in the next two months may exacerbate the domestic oversupply situation. The consumption side remains relatively rigid, and the rising warehouse receipt inventory continues to exert pressure. Alumina is expected to remain weak [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2914 | 2953 | 39 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3099 | 3061 | -38 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 224 | 133 | -91 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 333 | 323 | -10 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 123.59 | 175.36 | 51.8 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 138692 | 150393 | 11701 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 75 | 74 | -1 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 1.34% last week, closing at 2953 Yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 3099 Yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of -67 Yuan/ton compared to the previous week [4]. - In the bauxite market, the domestic ore market was stable. The supply shortage in the north was slightly aggravated by rainy weather, while the supply in the south was relatively stable. The import market continued to monitor the impact of Guinea's referendum results on ore policies, and the market trading was stable for the time being [4]. - On the supply side, alumina supply increased slightly. A roasting furnace of an alumina enterprise in Guangxi that was under maintenance has resumed normal production this week, resulting in a slight increase in alumina supply compared to the previous period. As of September 18, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [4]. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Shandong continued to transfer their production capacity to Yunnan. Overall, the total operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable compared to the previous week, and there was no significant change in alumina demand [4]. - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 85,000 tons last Friday to 150,000 tons, while the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Last week, the bauxite price was stable, and the trading atmosphere was calm. The alumina price gradually declined, and there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment in ore procurement. On the supply side, some previously maintained production capacities in Henan and Guizhou resumed production last week, so the operating capacity of alumina slightly increased to 83.36%. Overseas alumina supply is abundant, and the FPB price of imported alumina has been declining continuously during the week. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises mainly rely on long - term contracts for rigid demand tender procurement, with stable demand and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase by 8.5 tons during the week to 150,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][6]. 3.4 Industry News Recently, Aluminium Bahrain and Hydro officially renewed their alumina supply agreement. This renewal not only further consolidates their long - standing strategic partnership but also provides a stable supply guarantee of high - quality alumina for Aluminium Bahrain's production and operation. In the context of global aluminum industry supply chain fluctuations, this cooperation has attracted much attention [7] 3.5 Related Charts The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina cost - profit, bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, and alumina exchange inventory [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][22]