8月20日，国内碳酸锂期货市场异动，碳酸锂主力连续合约收于80980元/吨，跌幅8%，全线合 约 均 触 及 跌 停 板 。 A 股 锂 矿 板 块 同 步 下 挫 ， 天 齐 锂 业 （ 002466.SZ ） 、 赣 锋 锂 业 （002460.SZ）、盛新锂能（002240.SZ）均下跌。 消息面上，8月19日晚间，江特电机公告称其子公司宜春银锂新能源有限责任公司（以下简 称"宜春银锂"）将于近日正式复工复产。此前，宜春银锂的全部锂盐生产线于7月25日进行设 备检修，预计检修时间26天左右。 值得注意的是，8月11日早盘，碳酸锂期货曾因宁德时代枧下窝矿区采矿端停产传闻集体涨 停，主力合约（2511）当日涨幅达8%，创近三个月新高。但不足十日，市场情绪已从沸点跌 至冰点。 "这是此前过度炒作的回调。"南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹向21财经·南财快讯 记者表示，"尽管宜春银锂当前月产量不超过1千吨，日产量不过几十吨，但能边际的缓解现货 市场紧张的情绪。此外，市场传闻澳洲锂矿企业原计划8月中旬发往韩国的一船3.6万吨锂精 矿，因国内锂矿价格推高而将目的地变更为中国，这一消息加剧了市场对供给增加的预期 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by over 1%, reaching a nearly 10-year high [1] - The market showed strong momentum with net financing purchases close to 30 billion, marking the second highest this year and surpassing any weekly total for net financing purchases [2] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment was mixed, with positive financing data contrasted by negative news from the lithium sector, where a lithium mine resumed production, leading to a drop in lithium carbonate futures [2] - There were concerns regarding the impact of regulatory actions against "small essays" from sell-side research firms, which could affect market dynamics [2][3] Industry Insights - The automotive sector saw a notable rebound, particularly in commercial vehicles, which rose by 4.59%. This was partly driven by speculation about a potential investment by FAW in Leap Motor, although FAW later denied the report [7][10] - The economic pressures faced by traditional automakers like FAW highlight the competitive environment and the need for collaboration with new energy vehicle companies [10] Hong Kong Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks reported strong earnings, with companies like Xiaomi, Xpeng, and PP Mart showing significant gains. PP Mart's stock surged over 12%, reaching a historical high [13][14] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported a net profit of 4.44 billion HKD, a 41% year-on-year increase, benefiting from being the largest IPO market globally [15] Bond Market Commentary - The bond market experienced volatility, with a brief period of stability followed by a decline in sentiment, indicating a challenging environment for bond investors [17][18] Investment Recommendations - No new investment operations were suggested for the day, with existing investors encouraged to engage with community resources for further insights [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in lithium carbonate futures prices, highlighting the impact of supply concerns and market speculation on price movements [5][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate futures experienced significant fluctuations, with a recent drop of 8% to 80,980 yuan/ton, reflecting the unpredictable nature of the futures market [5]. - The recent price surge was triggered by the suspension of operations at CATL's Jiangxia Mine, raising supply concerns among market participants [5][6]. - Various negative news reports have emerged, contributing to a decline in lithium carbonate prices, despite earlier fears of supply shortages [5][6]. Group 2: Production and Supply - Jiangte Electric announced the resumption of production at its subsidiary Yichun Yinli, which has a production capacity of 30,000 tons/year for lithium carbonate [5]. - Data from MS indicates that domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to increase, with a projected output of 79,600 tons in August, a 4.1% month-on-month increase [7]. - The market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with some analysts suggesting that even the suspension of CATL's mine will not significantly impact overall supply levels [6][9]. Group 3: Speculation and Investor Behavior - The article notes that the price movements of lithium carbonate are heavily influenced by speculative trading and market sentiment rather than fundamental supply and demand changes [9]. - Various exaggerated reports and predictions regarding supply disruptions have led to increased volatility in prices, complicating investment decisions for market participants [9]. - The article emphasizes that understanding the fundamental market dynamics is crucial, but it may not be sufficient for successful speculation in the current environment [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View On August 20, multiple contracts of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down, mainly due to supply disruptions and sanctions. Short - term supply concerns may lead to extreme price movements, and relevant risks should be avoided. Upstream enterprises can conduct hedging, institutional investors should hold positions cautiously, and consider long - position layouts during price pullbacks. An 11 - 01/05 reverse spread strategy can be considered [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons On August 20, multiple contracts of lithium carbonate futures hit the limit down, with the main contract dropping to 8,080 yuan per ton. The decline was affected by two events: on August 19, Jiangte Motor announced the upcoming resumption of production of its subsidiary, Yichun Yinli, and the US DHS added lithium to the list of high - priority industries under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, increasing concerns about the lithium supply chain [3]. Fundamental Situation There have been continuous disruptions on the supply side. Yichun Yinli's resumption of production after a one - month equipment maintenance is expected to have a limited actual impact on supply (about 1,000 tons per month), but a large impact on market sentiment. There are also concerns about mining compliance issues. In July, lithium ore imports were 75.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.35%, with Australian exports at 273,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 67.24%. In July, domestic lithium carbonate imports were 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year increase of 74.4%. From January to July, China imported 132,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Currently, domestic supply and demand are generally balanced, but a supply - demand gap may emerge [4]. Summary and Strategy Short - term supply disruptions may cause extreme price movements. Upstream enterprises can conduct hedging, institutional investors should hold positions cautiously and consider long - position layouts during price pullbacks. For arbitrage, considering the long - term oversupply situation, a 11 - 01/05 reverse spread strategy can be considered [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current hype about mining license issues may be overheated. The market has two logics: a "step - by - step rise chain" when macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances occur, and a "negative feedback cycle" during the price - down cycle. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: prices will rise in Q3 and fall in Q4 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 90,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Contract Performance**: For the lithium carbonate main contract, the closing price dropped from 87,540 to 80,980 yuan/ton (-7.49% day - on - day, -4.84% week - on - week), the trading volume increased from 734,929 to 838,879 hands (14.14% day - on - day, -32.64% week - on - week), and the open interest decreased from 414,097 to 395,102 hands (-4.59% day - on - day, 0.62% week - on - week). Similar trends were seen in the LC2601 contract [9]. - **Month - spread Changes**: The LC11 - 12 month - spread decreased from 120 to 100 (-17% day - on - day, -69% week - on - week), and the LC11 - 01 month - spread decreased from 540 to 340 (-37% day - on - day, -45% week - on - week) [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, showed different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2 - 2.5%) was 2,125 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (-2.75% day - on - day, 4.68% week - on - week) [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide had weekly increases. For instance, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan/ton, up 4,600 yuan (5.84% week - on - week) [18]. - **Downstream Products**: The average daily prices of downstream products like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes were mostly stable with no daily changes [23][24]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The brand - based basis quotes of lithium carbonate from different companies, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., were mostly stable. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for LC2507 was - 250 yuan [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased from 23,615 to 24,045, with changes in different warehouses and sub - warehouses [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production and Delivery Profits**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate are presented through trend charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [32].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant drop due to a combination of rumors and expectations of production resumption, with the main contract closing at 80,980 yuan/ton, marking an 8% decline [2][4]. Market Reactions - On August 20, lithium carbonate opened sharply lower and closed with all contracts hitting the limit down, influenced by the announcement from Jiangte Electric that its subsidiary Yichun Yinli would resume production soon [2][4]. - The market was also affected by various rumors, including the transportation of Australian lithium concentrate to China and potential sanctions on lithium from the U.S., leading to a widespread decline in prices [2][4]. Production and Supply Dynamics - Yichun Yinli's resumption of production follows a comprehensive equipment overhaul, with the company previously producing 1,300 tons per month before the shutdown [4]. - Despite the rumors, analysts noted that the actual impact on the market was limited, as the basic supply-demand dynamics remained stable, with no significant deterioration observed [4][5]. Inventory and Demand Insights - Current lithium concentrate inventories in China are reported to be sufficient, with domestic traders holding 278,000 tons and lithium salt plants maintaining around 300,000 tons [5]. - Recent data indicated a slight decrease in overall inventory levels across the supply chain, suggesting a tight balance in the lithium carbonate market [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the recent price drop may be overdone, with potential upward momentum in lithium prices due to tightening supply and seasonal demand increases [9]. - The market remains cautious, with ongoing concerns about production resumption timelines and regulatory impacts on supply chains, which could lead to further price volatility [9].

金融界8月20日消息 单日暴跌8%，碳酸锂期货各大合约牢牢封住跌停板，A股江特电机旗下的宜春锂矿复 产消息直接干崩碳酸锂期货， 20日开盘，碳酸锂合约全线大幅低开，随后不断走低，在多头资金挣扎了1个小时后，选择放弃抵抗。上 午10点，碳酸锂主力合约被空头摁在跌停板上，大跌8%，报80980元/吨，单日每吨碳酸锂价格大跌超过 7000元，其他月份合约也纷纷跌停。午后一度有资金进场试图撬板反攻，碳酸锂期货一度打开跌停，但是 最终以失败而告终，截至收盘，碳酸锂期货各月合约全线跌停。 此外，A股锂矿板块也逆市下挫，天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、盛新锂能、永兴材料等纷纷下跌。 | | 碳酸锂主连 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lc9999 | | | | | 80980 | 08858 | 振幅 | 5.57% | # 83.897 | | 80980 | | 昨结 | 88020 | 持仓 39.517 | | -7040 -8.009 | 85680 | ਦੇ ਜੋੜ | 82900 | 日增 -1899! | | 相关ETF O | | | | 有色ETF 1.69 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract hit the daily limit down, with a decrease of 8% at the close. The trading volume decreased month - on - month, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened [2]. - Fundamentally, due to domestic mining incidents, the spot price of lithium carbonate raw materials has risen significantly, driving up the lithium ore quotation. Supply may continue to increase as smelters are more active in hedging. Demand has also improved as downstream buyers are more proactive in advance stocking with the approaching peak season. Overall, the lithium carbonate market may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 101.57%, a month - on - month increase of 7.764%. The call open interest in the options market has an advantage, and the sentiment in the options market has turned bearish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. - The operation suggestion is to short lightly on rallies and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 80,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,560 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 is - 139,458 lots, an increase of 10,387 lots [2]. - The open interest of the main contract is 395,102 lots, a decrease of 18,995 lots [2]. - The spread between near - and far - month contracts is 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The warehouse receipts of GME are 23,615 lots, an increase of 60 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 83,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 4,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,560 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 980 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars [2]. - The average price of amblygonite is 8,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan [2]. - The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate is 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate is 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons [2]. - The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, a decrease of 4 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, an increase of 4,600 MWh [2]. - The price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 55,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan [2]. - The price of lithium cobaltate is 235,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of ternary material (811 type): China is 148,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 130,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, an increase of 1 percentage point [2]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 51%, a decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - The monthly production of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,243,000 vehicles, a decrease of 25,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly sales of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,262,000 vehicles, a decrease of 67,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 44.99%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, an increase of 2,286,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, an increase of 20,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1,308,000 vehicles, an increase of 600,000 vehicles [2]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 73.17%, an increase of 3.84 percentage points [2]. - The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 55.24%, an increase of 4.50 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total call open interest is 145,340 contracts, a decrease of 2,807 contracts [2]. - The total put open interest is 147,624 contracts, an increase of 8,651 contracts [2]. - The put - call ratio of total open interest is 101.57%, an increase of 7.764 percentage points [2]. - The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.43%, a decrease of 0.0279 percentage points [2]. Industry News - A national conference on promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones was held in Beijing, emphasizing the need to optimize policies steadily, implement policies to increase consumption, and cultivate new growth points in the consumer market [2]. - Xiaomi Group's total revenue in the second quarter reached 116 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30.5%. The revenue of the "Mobile × AIoT" segment was 94.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, and the revenue of the "Intelligent Electric Vehicles and AI and other innovative businesses" segment was 21.3 billion yuan, both hitting record highs [2]. - Yichun Yinli, a wholly - owned subsidiary of Jiangte Motor, which had suspended production for equipment maintenance, will resume production soon [2]. - Heilongjiang has adjusted its subsidy policy for replacing old consumer goods with new ones. Starting from August 23, subsidies for car replacement are divided into three levels. The subsidy standards for fuel vehicles are 5,000 yuan, 8,000 yuan, and 11,000 yuan respectively, and the subsidy for each level of new energy vehicles is 2,000 yuan more [2].

近几周来，锂价大幅上涨——尽管仍远低于其峰值水平的 80%——原因是市场参与者正在应对宁德时 代（300750）江西宜春"枧下窝"锂矿的关闭问题。近年来，由于新矿投产以及需求增长放缓，全球锂供 应过剩的局面一直使价格处于低迷状态。 SQM公司目前预计，其在智利的业务在 2025 年的销售量将较去年增长约 10%。该公司还上调了在澳大 利亚的销售预期。不过，由于市场价格低迷，该公司第二季度的销售量较第一季度有所下降。 该公司首席执行官里Ricardo Ramos在声明中表示："我们部分已签订的合同已达到其中设定的最低限 额，这影响了双方所商定的产量。"该公司预测，今年下半年其在澳大利亚的产量将"大幅增加"，并将 其国际锂业务部门 2025 年的销售预期上调至约2万吨锂碳酸盐等量。 全球顶尖的锂矿生产商之一智利矿业化工(SQM.US)第二季度的核心盈利出现下滑，原因是用于电池生 产的这种材料的价格跌至多年来的最低点。扣除特定项目后的调整后盈利较上年同期下降了 28%，至 3.079 亿美元。该公司表示，锂行业一直受到全球供应过剩的严重影响，这导致价格大幅下跌，不过中 国减少产量的举措近期推动了价格的回升。 该公司 ...

> 碳酸锂 2025年8月20日 消息一:江特电机(002176.SZ)公告称,公司全资下属公司宜春 银锂新能源有限责任公司(简称"宜春银锂")于前期停产进行了 设备检修。近日,公司接到宜春银锂通知,宜春银锂将于近日正式 复工复产。 消息二:Pilbara原7月下旬计划8月中旬发往韩国的1船锂精矿3.6 万吨,因价格原因,目前已改为去中国,原计划延至9月,因此9月 中国澳矿到货有所增加。 宜春银锂目前拥有碳酸锂产能3.5万吨,复产带来约2500吨/月 碳酸锂产量,皮尔巴拉澳矿本批到港折合碳酸锂总量约4500吨;与 宁德视下窝碳酸锂月产量约5000-6000 吨比较,已很大程度覆盖视 下窝供给减量,缓解市场供应紧张预期。碳酸锂期货早盘低开后, 随着利空情绪及多头集中平仓, 市场快讯 -- 复产叠加改运消息缓解供应紧张预期,碳酸锂价格大幅下调 宜春银锂产线已进行多项技术改造以实现绿色化升级,复产属 计划之内。然皮尔巴拉锂精矿改运提醒了市场:价格上涨必会引起 供给增长,对国内矿端受新矿产资源法影响而进行供给缩减预期的 同时,也要与闲置产能复产、进口量增加的预期进行平衡。 联系方式:wangchen@greendh. ...