《哪吒2》创造的票房神话，有一大半是三四线城市的功劳。 据猫眼专业版数据，截至今年2月13号，一至四线城市的累计票房成绩分别是9.84亿、32.05亿、19.27亿、 36.60亿，三四线城市累计贡献了全国票房总量的57.2%。 透过票房可窥见新线城市消费力的冰山一角，近年来，互联网流行的"县城中产"、"县城贵妇"等高频词汇， 都是下沉市场消费力量上浮的证明。 全国171个公布2024年社会消费品零售数据的非一线城市中，97.1%都实现了消费增长，其中，增长率最高 的，是许多人都会感到陌生的四线小城——云南玉溪。 种种迹象表明，新线城市正从"五环外配角"进阶为"增长主舞台"，新线城市用户也正在逐渐掌握消费话语 权。 体现在移动互联网的生意场上亦是如此，汇聚7亿老铁用户、在新线市场深耕的快手，已经吃到消费市场结 构变迁的头茬红利，在去年实现11.8%的营收增长、72.5%的净利润增长。 而在所有欣欣向荣的业务线里， 2024年GMV同比增长200%的本地生活业务尤为亮眼，其中，新线城市用 户的贡献达到六成， 是当之无愧的中流砥柱。 一个从规模到潜力都足够庞大的消费群体摆在眼前，过去一年里，越来越多商家涌向快手， ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq dropping over 4% at one point, and Nvidia (NVDA.US) falling more than 10% due to a quarterly expenditure of approximately $5.5 billion related to exporting H20 graphics processors [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 699.57 points (1.73%) to 39,669.39 points, while the Nasdaq declined by 516.01 points (3.07%) to 16,307.16 points, and the S&P 500 dropped by 120.93 points (2.24%) to 5,275.7 points [1] European Market - The DAX30 index in Germany rose by 59.97 points (0.28%) to 21,291.49 points, while the FTSE 100 in the UK increased by 21.52 points (0.26%) to 8,270.64 points [2] - The CAC40 index in France fell by 5.43 points (0.07%) to 7,329.97 points, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index decreased by 9.58 points (0.19%) to 4,960.85 points [2] Asia-Pacific Market - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by over 1%, while the KOSPI index in South Korea dropped by over 1.2% [3] Currency Market - The U.S. Dollar Index decreased by 0.83%, closing at 99.385 [3] - The Euro was exchanged at 1.1386 USD, up from 1.1273 USD the previous trading day, while the British Pound rose to 1.3229 USD from 1.3216 USD [3] Commodity Market - Bitcoin increased by over 1% to $84,593.91, while Ethereum fell by 0.09% to $1,590.41 [4] - Spot gold rose by 3.35% to $3,339.10 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [4] - WTI crude oil futures increased by 1.9% to approximately $62.50 per barrel, marking the third consecutive rise in four trading days [4] Macroeconomic Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about the Fed's potential dilemma between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth, especially amid rising uncertainties regarding President Trump's tariffs [5] - The number of states in the U.S. where unemployment exceeds job vacancies has increased, indicating a tightening labor market [6] - The confidence index among U.S. home builders slightly rose, but future demand expectations fell to a one-year low due to rising material costs from tariffs [6] Trade and Tariff Developments - U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that tariff revenues contradict President Trump's claims, with actual daily revenues averaging $250 million instead of the claimed $2 billion [7] - The World Trade Organization indicated that U.S. tariff policies have severely deteriorated global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [9] Company-Specific News - Tesla (TSLA.US) saw its market share in California drop below 50%, with its share of new electric vehicle registrations falling from 55.5% to 43.9% year-over-year, attributed to an aging product lineup and controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk [10]

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 关税是近期市场普遍关心的话题，我们整理了一些外资投行的观察视角，以供参考。 截至本文发布，美国总统特朗普表示，他正考虑对进口汽车和零部件关税实施临时豁免的可能性， 以便让汽车企业有更多时间在美国建立生产设施。 在此之前，特朗普称豁免电子产品关税只是一项 临时措施，这些产品将被即将实施的行业关税所覆盖。 局势正在以分钟级速度演变。 关税政策能重振美国的就业吗？ 有外资报告援引学术研究结果显示，特朗普关税政策或对美国就业存在负面影响。关税税率每提高10个 百分点，受保护行业的就业岗位将增加0.2-0.4%；而关税驱动成本每上升1个百分点，就业岗位会减少 0.3-0.6%。考虑美国的经济体量，意味着关税保护对制造业就业的提振作用不足10万个岗位，而由此带 来的成本压力对下游就业的拖累效应则高达约50万个岗位。 企业应对关税风险的五种常见策略 外资投行基于观察企业应对上一轮关税争端的经验，总结出面对关税风险企业通常可以采取的五种应对 策略。在最新的关税政策下，部分策略是否还能继续 ...

周末比较大的事情是特朗普政府宣布对中国部分出口商品豁免了"对等关 税"， 豁免范围覆盖了 智能手机、计算机、半导体设备等20类商品，这 部分的贸易规模大概在1000亿左右，占中国对美出口约20%。 这个消息在股民的圈子里引发了地震，因为这1000亿贸易量的背后是十几个行业板块，几十家上市公司，是这个星期里被贸易战杀的最狠 的几十家公司，对股民来说这个消息无疑是回血的救命稻草。 但就在这则消息广泛传播的同时，还有另一个消息同时也在快速传播，说之前的豁免新闻解读错误，美国只对含美量20%以上的商品豁免 美国部分的关税，而对非美国部分继续征税。后一个信息在股民社区传播也很广，并引起了激烈的争吵。 老实说我一开始也懵逼了，到网上搜索了一下发现两种说法都有出处，最后实在没办法只能去美国网站上下载源文件去求证。 我用简洁的话来解释： 关于20%含美量豁免是源于4月2日美国发的文件（EO14257）第三节，确有其事，然后在4月11日美国政府又发了一个备忘录，对 EO14257文件的豁免范围进行了补充更新，所以二者是并集的关系，不矛盾。 1、特朗普在过去一周的操作导致了一些明显的变化，比如美元指数跌破100，创了2022年4 ...

市场风高浪急，交易要逆水行舟。 文 丨 陈晶 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 王姗姗 70 后的洪灏留长发、戴圆眼镜、常系一条红色领带，配合总是生无可恋的表情，风格自成一派。 经 历了过去一周全球资本市场的风云突变，他对接下来中国资产的价格走势判断继续保持谨慎乐观。 4 月 2 日特朗普对外宣布美国新的关税政策并定于 4 月 9 日全面生效，数十年的全球贸易链条被斩 断、世界性经济衰退的警报被拉响，将资本市场推入数十年不遇的恐慌。美股经历多日暴跌，市场最 高蒸发超 6.5 万亿美元。 对此，现任华福国际（香港）金融控股有限公司 CEO 的洪灏已数次提醒投资者，面对当下无序的暴 跌需稍安勿躁，不要轻易尝试参与任何的美股反弹。 本周，不确定性仍在进一步加剧。 4 月 7 日，中国对美国表态坚决反制后的第一个交易日，A 股和港 股经历了 "黑色星期一" 的冲击——全市场收盘跌停个股逾 2900 只，A 股总市值一天蒸发 7.6 万亿 元，港股则遭遇其历史上第二大单日暴跌。4 月 8 日，美国报复性宣布对中国输美商品征收 "对等关 税" 的税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。随后在 4 月 9 日，中国政府回击，反制进一 ...

这个周末很多股民都过的很忐忑，担心周一行情受贸易战冲击出现暴跌。 我们对美出口占比15%，加上转口贸易可能在17-18%，这部分贸易被关税壁垒挤压后，中国很大概率会 在国内执行进一步的刺激政策来对冲利空，央行择机降准降息择了那么久，估计下周要落地了。但仅仅 降准降息是不够的，我猜后续会有更大规模的政府投资，和更直接的消费刺激。 所以消费板块有机会异军突起，在这种特殊的环境下成为a股的新热点，以及那些公司主营全部来自国 内市场的公司，理论上都会有跑赢大盘的表现。比如周四涨幅最高的是养殖板块，基本是内销市场。 中国自身的消费规模占gdp大约是4成，世界上其它国家的平均水平是在6成左右。之所以我们的比例偏 低，不是因为我们的消费规模小，事实上中国已经是连续十余年的全球第二大消费市场，但问题是我们 的生产能力更惊人，全球断层领先。 目前看形势确实不太好，在中国宣布关税反制措施后，新加坡a50期指大概比周四下午3点的位置下跌了 4%，周五晚上纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌8.87%，种种迹象表明明天早上开盘会是一个大幅跳空低开， 我判断大概在-2%到-3%区间。 低开-2%的话反弹空间其实不大的，因为稍微向上涨涨就会面临33 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the power equipment industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that leading companies in the power equipment sector are maintaining their competitive advantages despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [1]. Industry Trends - The power equipment sector has seen a decline in various segments, with electrical equipment down by 3.51%, lithium batteries and new energy vehicles both down by 2.37%, and photovoltaic down by 5.75% [4]. - The report highlights significant financing activities in the humanoid robot sector, with Agility raising $400 million for production expansion and other AI companies completing substantial funding rounds [4]. - The report notes that the demand for energy storage is increasing, with the National Development and Reform Commission releasing guidelines for green low-carbon technology demonstration projects [4]. Company Performance - BYD reported a production of 395,000 new energy vehicles in March 2025, with sales of 377,000 vehicles, including 73,000 sold overseas [4]. - Tongwei Co. has repurchased 100 million shares, accounting for 2.3% of its total share capital, to support employee stock ownership plans [4]. - The report provides detailed financial forecasts for several companies, indicating expected revenue and net profit growth for 2024 and 2025 [6][7]. Investment Strategy - The report identifies several key sectors for investment, including humanoid robots, energy storage, electric vehicles, industrial control, photovoltaic, wind power, and the power grid [4]. - It highlights the expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global energy storage installations from 2023 to 2025 to be between 40% and 50% [4]. - The report recommends specific companies within these sectors, such as CATL, BYD, and Sunshine Power, citing their strong market positions and growth potential [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the power equipment industry [1]. Core Views - The leading companies in the power equipment sector are expected to maintain their competitive advantages despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [1]. - The report highlights significant growth opportunities in the robotics, energy storage, electric vehicle, industrial control, photovoltaic, wind power, and grid sectors, driven by technological advancements and market demand [4][10]. Industry Trends - The power equipment sector has shown varied performance, with electric equipment down 3.51%, lithium batteries down 2.37%, and photovoltaic down 5.75% [4]. - The report notes a strong recovery in electric vehicle sales, with major manufacturers reporting significant year-on-year growth [29]. - The energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the U.S., with a projected CAGR of 40-50% from 2023 to 2025 [9][11]. Company Highlights - Companies such as CATL, BYD, and Sungrow are highlighted as key players with strong growth potential in their respective segments [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and market positioning for companies like Tesla and their impact on the robotics sector [10]. - Specific companies are recommended for investment based on their market leadership and growth prospects, including CATL, BYD, and others in the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [6][7]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a bullish outlook on the robotics sector, anticipating a significant increase in production and market penetration [10]. - In the energy storage sector, the report expects continued strong demand in the U.S. and emerging markets, with a focus on leading companies in storage inverters and battery technology [9]. - The electric vehicle market is projected to grow by 25% in 2025, driven by new models and consumer incentives [29].

以下文章来源于快刀财经 ，作者快刀财经编辑部 快刀财经 . 欢迎关注这个洞察商业真相的公号。快刀财经，商业快媒体、思维孵化器、价值试验场和洗欲中心。 作者：朱末 来源：快刀财经（ID：kuaidaocaijing） 在两轮电动车的江湖里，一直流传着"南雅迪、北爱玛"的传说，但除了这两者之外，还曾有 个"另类"凭借一己之力，将整个市场搅得天翻地覆。 它就是小牛，凭借出色的颜值，以及一系列的产品创新，小牛成为中高端"小电驴"厂商的代 表，人称"电驴界爱马仕"。 小牛电动的成绩有多彪悍？成立仅4年就跑进了纳斯达克，被资本市场认可的速度之快，足以 羡煞一众前辈，要知道，比小牛电动早18年进入两轮电动车市场的雅迪，等了20年才挂牌上 市，另一家老牌厂商爱玛，则苦等了22年。 上市后，小牛电动的股价更是涨幅惊人，在2021年冲到了53.38美元的最高点，总市值为41亿 美元。不但如此，这一年，小牛电动的业绩也创了历史新高，营收高达37.05亿元，同比增长 51.56%；净利润达2.26亿元，同比增长33.9%，年销量突破百万辆。 然而，好景不长，随着市场竞争加剧，小牛电动逐渐后劲不足，2022年及2023年连续两年销 量 ...

重阳说 2025年一季度的资本市场在一种叙事突变的氛围中开局。春节期间，Deepseek横空出世，让全球对中国硬 科技的突破刮目相看。电影院里，魔童哪吒大闹东海龙宫，票房连破纪录，闯进全球影史前五且尚未止步。 现实内外的交相辉映极大地提振了投资者的风险偏好，中国资产价值重估成为主流叙事，结构性牛市行情逐 渐清晰，指数攀升至3400点附近，此前重阳看好的泛科技、创新药等板块已经收获了一波涨幅。经过一季度 的修复，展望后市，政策与市场大的演绎方向是什么？结构性机会如何把握？本期"重阳S4"圆桌请出重阳投 资合伙人、战略研究部主管寇志伟以及基金经理谭伟、胡敏、陈奋涛、赵阳来进行一一解答。 "重阳S4"是重阳多位基金经理共同管理同一只基金这一模式的简称。具体来讲， 就是在公司投资决策委员会统 一的策略指引下，同一只基金通过分仓的方式由多位基金经理共同参与管理，每位基金经理在自己的分仓范 围内进行相对独立操作。实践证明，多基金经理共管模式能够帮助打造投资管理超级能力圈，实现投资业绩 可持续、投研能力可迭代、投资风格可复制、管理规模可拓展的目标。多基金经理共管模式起源于美国，已 经成为当今全球资管行业里大多数头部基金普遍 ...