有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/13 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/06 285 1063 116753 24922 -38.41 794.66 100.0 115.0 21.75 195625 86950 2025/05/07 260 1321 116753 21541 52.52 553.27 100.0 115.0 21.65 193975 86125 2025/05/08 225 1089 116753 19540 -252.05 750.12 102.0 116.0 45.82 194275 84025 2025/05/09 80 829 80705 19165 160.52 955.79 103.0 117.0 49.19 191775 82625 2025/05/12 -25 899 80705 20084 - 644.55 101.0 117.0 23.87 190750 82200 变化 -105 ...

| | 20250512申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏弱为主。 | | | | 镍： 可能短期区间波动运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产 | | | | 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望 | 幅波动 | | | 巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关 | | | | 税谈判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 | | | | 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 窄。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market shows a slowdown in inventory depletion, with high selling pressure due to weakening premiums and uncertain future demand. Attention should be paid to consumption inflection points and market sentiment influenced by Sino - US negotiations. For aluminum, supply slightly increases, and the demand gap remains. It is recommended to observe absolute prices and take profit on aluminum internal - external reverse spreads. For zinc, it is in a state of strong current situation and weak expectations, and it is advisable to short at high prices and hold internal - external positive spreads. For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, and the unilateral price is expected to be under pressure. For lead, the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and the supply is expected to decrease in May. For tin, the short - term supply is disturbed, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term and look for high - short opportunities in the long - term. For industrial silicon, the short - term supply and demand both decrease, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term, and there is short - term demand for replenishment [1][2][4][7][8][10][12]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From April 30 to May 9, the spot premium decreased by 145, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 260, and the inventory decreased by 375. The spot import profit increased by 412.57, and the three - month import profit increased by 205.67 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In April, copper concentrate imports increased. There is no concentrated production reduction or maintenance in smelting enterprises. The demand shows strong current situation but weak future expectations, with concerns about photovoltaic installation and re - export demand [1]. - **Outlook**: The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. Pay attention to consumption inflection points and market sentiment influenced by Sino - US negotiations. The upward momentum of the monthly spread requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From April 30 to May 9, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 10, and the social inventory had no significant change. The spot import profit decreased by 213.48, and the three - month import profit decreased by 129.00 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply slightly increases, and the demand gap remains. The 5 - 7 month inventory depletion is expected to be gentle [1]. - **Outlook**: Observe absolute prices, take profit on aluminum internal - external reverse spreads. If the absolute price drops, the monthly positive spread can be held [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From April 30 to May 9, the zinc price center oscillated slightly downward. The domestic TC increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the import TC slightly increased. The social inventory is at a low level, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is stable with a slight decrease in smelting maintenance in May. Domestic demand has limited impetus, and overseas demand shows a slight recovery. The domestic inventory is expected to turn from depletion to accumulation in mid - late May [2]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the inventory turning point, short at high prices, hold internal - external positive spreads, and look for monthly reverse spread opportunities after mid - May [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From April 30 to May 9, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of high - nickel iron was not provided. The price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 300, and the spot import profit decreased by 316.87 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply remains at a high level, and demand is weak. Overseas nickel plate inventory decreases slightly, and domestic inventory remains stable [4]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to tariff policies of Indonesia and other countries towards China and nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities [4]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From April 30 to May 9, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply may decrease in May, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The cost of nickel - iron and chrome - iron is under pressure, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan accumulates after the holiday [7]. - **Outlook**: The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure, and the reverse spread can be transferred and held [7]. Lead - **Market Data**: From April 30 to May 9, the lead price oscillated. The spot import profit decreased by 262.91, and the LME inventory decreased by 1725 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is affected by factors such as low scrap volume and concentrated production of recycled smelters. Demand is weak, with a slight decline in battery export orders [8]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate between 16700 - 16900, and the supply in May is expected to decrease [8]. Tin - **Market Data**: From April 30 to May 9, the spot import profit decreased by 3114.23, and the spot export profit increased by 2935.09. The LME inventory decreased by 50 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is affected by factors such as the resumption of production in African mines and the possible reduction in domestic production. Demand is weak, with limited elasticity of solder and a decline in terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth [8]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply is disturbed, and it is recommended to observe in the short - term. In the long - term, look for high - short opportunities, and June may be a key stage to verify the transfer from ore shortage to ingot shortage [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From April 30 to May 9, the basis of 421 silicon in Yunnan, Sichuan, and the basis of 553 silicon in East China and Tianjin increased by 110, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1077 [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is affected by factors such as the reduction in production of large northern factories and the resumption of production in some factories in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia. Demand is weak, with a decline in the demand for organic silicon and polysilicon [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand both decrease, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long - term [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From April 30 to May 9, the price of SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the basis of the main contract increased by 1260. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 110 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases, with the end of production line maintenance in some factories and the release of goods by large salt - lake factories. Demand is weak, with a reduction in orders from the US energy storage market and only safety - stock replenishment by downstream enterprises [12]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term, and there is short - term demand for replenishment [12].

有色金属日报 2025-5-12 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 国内黑色系商品延续弱势，铝价受影响走势偏弱，不过库存重新去化使得铝价短线企稳，昨日伦铝收 涨 1.18%至 2408 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 19570 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量 58.3 万手， 环比增加 2.6 万手，盘面空头继续增仓，期货仓单 6.6 万吨，环比减少 0.3 万吨，总体维持偏低水 平。根据 SMM 统计，国内铝锭社会库存环比周二减少 1.6 万吨，至 62 万吨，铝棒库 ...

叠加矿端报价加速下调，锂价维持偏空运行【62000-63700】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 虽然英美谈判有结果、中美贸易谈判有结果，金价或有所调整，不过未来全球 | | | 高位震荡 | 购金力量仍较多，长期看国际秩序下美元信用丧失，去美元化是主力，黄金是 | | | | 未来秩序筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【770-810】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 关税影响各国经济，国内光伏需求有负面影响各国刺激政策将会出台，白银窄 幅震荡。白银品种属性看弹性大，受黄金和基本金属影响较大，操作上延续此 | | | | 前的高位区间思路对待。【8100-8380】 | | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 铜精矿紧张持续，国内库存持续去化，本周交割在即，仓单和持仓对比悬殊，警惕 | | | | 软挤仓风险，短期多单继续持有，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77300，78800】 | | 锌 | 反弹抛空 | 海外锌精矿干扰增加，海内外库存去化，短期锌止跌反弹，但预计上方空间有 | | | | ...

关税影响好转 有色金属或继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 英美达成贸易协议，中美亦开始正式接触谈判，全球贸易紧张局势有所缓解。美联储暂停降息，国内提出"一揽子金融政策"，均基本符合市场预 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位持续横盘 | 期。特朗普关税政策反反复复，关税影响总体上相对好转，但前期给全球经济带来的不利影响仍然存在，从4月进出口数据来看对中国影响有限， | | | 铜 | | 但后续不良影响仍可能会逐步显现。基本面上，国内库存降至低位，近一个月国内库存下降明显，带动了现货升水走高和盘面Back结构扩大。TC | 区间交易 | | | 77000-79000 | 持续探底跌破-42美元，虽受 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月，全球锌板产量为225.30万吨，消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨；偏空。 2、基差：现货22870，基差+680；偏多。 3、库存：5月9日LME锌库存较上日减少325吨至170325吨，5月9日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少150吨至1903吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, demand has a marginal weakening expectation, but the inventory is at a low level. The center of aluminum price operation has a downward risk, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. For alumina, the progress of new production capacity is the key focus, and the short - term price rebound space is limited, with an expected weak and volatile operation [2][68]. Summary by Related Catalogs Electrolytic Aluminum Macro - Sino - US talks have started, but the probability of reaching an agreement in the short term is limited. The US has multiple rounds of tariff talks with other countries. The US and the UK have reached a tariff agreement, canceling the 232 aluminum tariff on the UK. The US economic data is strong, and the Fed's stance is still hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of the number of Fed rate cuts to three times this year. China has introduced multiple economic stimulus policies [2]. Industry Supply - The supply side has little short - term change, with a slow increase in production. Future capacity changes will mainly involve small - scale restarts and replacement of production capacity [2]. Industry Demand - In April, the apparent consumption of aluminum increased by more than 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was more than 5% year - on - year. However, the high - growth demand did not boost market confidence. The marginal weakening of demand is highly certain. The photovoltaic module production schedule in May is expected to be 55GW, a 10% month - on - month decrease. The home appliance production schedule increases year - on - year but weakens month - on - month. The orders of photovoltaic aluminum profile enterprises have declined. Last week, the operating rates of leading aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil enterprises decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum cables increased month - on - month [2]. Inventory - The net import of aluminum ingots is expected to remain at a high level of over 160,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the bonded area continues to increase. The social inventory of aluminum ingots briefly increased after the May Day holiday, which is in line with the seasonality. Based on historical data, the inventory can decrease by 120,000 - 180,000 tons in the whole month. With the social inventory of aluminum ingots at over 620,000 tons at the beginning of May, it is expected to drop to a low level of over 500,000 tons next week, which is expected to support the monthly spread [2]. Trading Logic - The impact of tariffs on global aluminum demand remains to be reflected at the micro - level. The subsequent low - level social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to support the monthly spread. However, with the marginal weakening of demand in sectors such as photovoltaics and home appliances, pay attention to the consumption inflection point from May to June. The short - term strong supply - demand performance in China cannot reverse the annual surplus pressure. The expectation of marginal demand decline in the middle of the year remains unchanged. It is expected that the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate widely. To stably break through the 20,000 - yuan mark, the global annual aluminum consumption expectation needs to improve. To break below the 19,000 - yuan mark, the weakening expectation on the demand side needs to be realized. Since the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is still at a relatively high level of about 3,500 yuan in recent years, pay attention to the possibility of the off - season expectation being realized ahead of schedule from June to July, leading to a decline in aluminum price and a contraction in aluminum profit [2]. Trading Strategy - The actual impact of tariffs on the global economy remains to be seen. With the expectation of marginal demand weakening but a relatively low absolute inventory level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and derivatives trading [2]. Alumina Raw Material End - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market had a significant price adjustment. Large mining enterprises revised the long - term agreement prices for the second quarter. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was lowered to $75 per dry ton (CIF). The bulk market also weakened, with the 45/3 ore quotation falling below $75 per dry ton, and some low - quality ore quotes reaching $72 per dry ton. However, buyers remained cautious. As mining enterprises and traders accelerate shipments, the alumina price recovers, and the rainy season in Guinea approaches, the procurement activities of downstream alumina enterprises are expected to gradually pick up [68]. Supply End - After the May Day holiday, the number of domestic alumina enterprises undergoing phased maintenance and production reduction continued to increase, covering regions such as Guizhou, Guangxi, and Shanxi. The total operating capacity decreased by 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2% [68]. Trading Logic - A news item last week triggered market concerns about alumina supply and pushed up the price, but the actual impact and real situation need continuous tracking. In May, both maintenance and restart of alumina production capacity occurred, and new production capacity will gradually produce finished products. Pay attention to the impact of the progress of new production capacity on the supply - demand balance shifting from short - term tight balance to surplus. The price of imported bauxite is on a downward trend, and the alumina warehouse receipts are still at a high level. If the maintenance capacity recovers, there is a possibility of positive restart. It is expected that the rebound range of the alumina price will be relatively limited, and it will maintain a weak and volatile operation [68]. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the alumina price is expected to operate weakly and volatilely. If the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged after the price rebound, consider short - selling. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and option trading [68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to impact the market positively. The steel sector, having undergone three years of adjustment, now presents a favorable cost-performance ratio, with leading companies showing improved profitability and stability [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are experiencing notable loosening, with expectations that May's iron and steel production may peak. The steel mills are likely to squeeze iron ore profits, leading to potential downward feedback on prices. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is seen as advantageous given the high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The overall price index for common steel has slightly declined by 0.71%, with rebar prices at 3,296 CNY/ton, down 0.8% week-on-week [15][37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fees have deepened into negative territory, with the current rough smelting fee at -43.5 USD/thousand tons, a decrease of 8.21% week-on-week. The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang slightly increasing while those in Shandong have decreased significantly [17][29]. Precious Metals - Tariffs are expected to boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, leading to a potential rise in gold prices. As of May 9, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,329.1 USD/ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.52% [17][37]. Investment Recommendations - For the steel sector, it is recommended to focus on leading companies such as Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) and Jiugang Steel (002110, Not Rated). In the non-ferrous sector, investment in Northern Rare Earth (600111, Buy) and Jinchuan Group (300748, Buy) is suggested [8][17].

铜陵有色（000630）公告，公司拟以增资方式控股有色财务公司，交易完成后，有色财务公司将成为公 司控股子公司。为此，有色财务公司将与公司控股股东有色集团签署《金融服务协议》，构成关联交 易。协议规定在有效期内，有色集团及其下属成员单位存放在有色财务公司的日最高存款余额不超过30 亿元，贷款余额不超过30亿元，授信不超过45亿元。该事项尚需提交股东大会审议批准。协议旨在提高 资金使用效率，控制风险，增加收入。 ...