固定收益 | 固定收益定期 美债回落，油价大涨 证券研究报告 海外经济跟踪周报 20250615 海外市场复盘（6.9-6.13） 本周欧美主要股指多数收跌，波动率上升。周一周二，中美贸易会谈召开， 美方官员释放会谈顺利有成效的信号，推动美股上涨；周五以色列袭击伊 朗，全球股市下挫。 美元和美债收益率下行，周五反弹。本周前四天，由于美国 CPI 和 PPI 通 胀低于预期、失业金申请人数超预期上升，市场降息预期升温，美元下跌； 并且美国国债标售稳健，美债收益率下行。周五中东局势升级，油价大涨 令通胀担忧上升，美元和美债收益率上行。 商品方面，中东局势推动油价和黄金上涨。中东冲突升级，加剧对石油供 应中断的担忧，尤其是担忧伊朗可能会袭击霍尔木兹海峡等主要石油航运 路线，油价大涨。避险情绪上升，黄金上涨。 海外基本面高频跟踪 总体景气度：美国小幅回升，德国继续降温。美国每周经济指数小幅回升， 德国每周经济指数继续下降。美国纽约联储 Nowcast、亚特兰大联储 GDPNow 对美国二季度 GDP 的预测小幅上调。 就业：失业金领取人数高于预期。美国初请失业金 24.8 万人，预期 24 万 人，或与学年结束有关。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian energy infrastructure mark a significant escalation in the Middle East, potentially destabilizing the already fragile Iranian energy sector and leading to increased volatility in global oil prices [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on Iranian Energy Sector - The airstrikes targeted two oil refineries in Bushehr province and oil storage facilities near Tehran, causing explosions and fires, which could further weaken Iran's struggling energy industry [1][4]. - The South Pars gas field, which accounts for two-thirds of Iran's natural gas supply, experienced a production loss of 12 million cubic meters per day due to the attacks [7]. - Analysts suggest that the precision of these strikes indicates a potential for a larger-scale energy conflict, despite the immediate damage being primarily domestic [7][11]. Group 2: Global Oil Market Reactions - Following the attacks, U.S. crude oil prices surged by 14%, closing at approximately $73 per barrel, reflecting heightened concerns over supply disruptions [2][7]. - The trading market has seen a significant increase in "out-of-the-money call options," indicating traders are hedging against further price increases, with a notable contract betting on prices exceeding $85 per barrel by June 25 [2][10]. - The divergence in U.S. and European policies regarding Russian oil price caps has added to market unpredictability, complicating the energy landscape for investors [14][16]. Group 3: Broader Geopolitical Implications - The ongoing conflict has raised concerns about potential retaliatory actions from Iran, which could escalate tensions further and impact oil supply from neighboring countries [13]. - The situation is reminiscent of the 2019 Abqaiq attack, which caused significant disruptions in oil supply and price volatility, suggesting that the current events could have similar repercussions [11][12]. - Analysts emphasize that while OPEC+ members have spare capacity to mitigate price spikes, the geopolitical risks associated with the conflict could still lead to sustained price increases [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian energy infrastructure mark a significant escalation in the Middle East, potentially destabilizing the already fragile Iranian energy sector and leading to increased volatility in global oil prices [1][2][4][11]. Group 1: Impact on Iranian Energy Sector - The airstrikes targeted two oil refineries in Bushehr province and oil storage facilities near Tehran, causing explosions and fires, which could further weaken Iran's struggling energy industry [1][4][6]. - The South Pars gas field, which accounts for two-thirds of Iran's natural gas supply, suffered damage, leading to a production loss of 12 million cubic meters of gas per day due to the shutdown of an offshore platform [7]. - The attacks are seen as a "precision sanction" strategy, indicating a potential for larger-scale energy conflicts in the region [7]. Group 2: Global Oil Market Reactions - Following the airstrikes, U.S. crude oil prices surged by 14% at one point, closing around $73 per barrel, reflecting heightened concerns over supply disruptions [2][7]. - The trading market has seen a significant increase in "out-of-the-money call options," indicating traders are hedging against further oil price increases, with a notable contract betting on prices exceeding $85 per barrel by June 25 [10]. - Analysts suggest that the current geopolitical tensions and market volatility are creating a more unpredictable energy market environment [15]. Group 3: Broader Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. has rejected European proposals to lower the price cap on Russian oil, which could further complicate the energy landscape and impact global oil supply dynamics [14]. - The potential for Iran to retaliate against U.S. military facilities in Iraq raises concerns about escalating conflicts affecting oil production in neighboring countries [13]. - The situation is reminiscent of the 2019 Abqaiq attack, which caused significant disruptions in oil supply and price volatility, highlighting the fragility of energy infrastructure in conflict zones [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 11 products experiencing price increases, 35 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in early June 2025 compared to late May 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary plates decreased by 1.0% to 1.7%, with rebar priced at 3111.1 yuan per ton [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper saw a price increase of 0.4% to 78731.7 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingots decreased by 0.6% to 20203.3 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products experienced varied changes, with sulfuric acid increasing by 2.3% to 635.8 yuan per ton, while methanol decreased by 2.5% to 2137.0 yuan per ton [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell by 1.1% to 4264.2 yuan per ton, while gasoline prices increased by 1.1% to 8372.1 yuan per ton [4]. - Coal prices showed a decline, with anthracite coal dropping by 3.6% to 914.8 yuan per ton and coke decreasing by 5.6% to 1181.4 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice prices increased slightly by 0.2% to 4036.8 yuan per ton, while wheat prices decreased by 0.6% to 2415.3 yuan per ton [5]. - Fertilizer prices also saw a decline, with urea dropping by 1.4% to 1864.3 yuan per ton [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring includes data from over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [7]. - The methodology involves various data collection techniques, including on-site price collection and electronic inquiries [8].

美股能源股上涨，戴文能源公司股价上涨3.3%，埃克森美孚上涨1.9%，雪佛龙上涨1.2%，康菲石油上 涨2.6%，哈里伯顿上涨2.7%，斯伦贝谢上涨1.3%，西方石油上涨3.6%。 ...

道指跌1.1%，标普500指数跌0.9%。科技股普跌，特斯拉跌约2%，英伟达跌1.5%。中概股普跌，哔哩 哔哩跌约4%。油气股上涨，康菲石油涨约2%。航空股下跌，达美航空跌约5%，美国航空跌约5%。 ...

Group 1 - On June 13, 2025, Shandong Molong (00568), Alibaba-W (09988), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) were the top three companies by trading volume in the southbound section of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 75.70 billion, 60.17 billion, and 41.42 billion respectively [1] - In the southbound section of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Shandong Molong (00568), and Alibaba-W (09988) led the trading volume, with amounts of 22.51 billion, 21.76 billion, and 19.46 billion respectively [1] Group 2 - The top active companies in the southbound section of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect included Shandong Molong (00568) with a net buying amount of +4547.99 million, while Alibaba-W (09988) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) had net selling amounts of -30.44 billion and -14.42 billion respectively [1] - In the southbound section of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net selling amount of -3.78 billion, while Shandong Molong (00568) had a net buying amount of +46.09 million [1]

油气ETF紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相关上 市公司的证券价格变化情况。 数据显示，截至2025年5月30日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油(601857)、 中国石化(600028)、中国海油(600938)、广汇能源(600256)、杰瑞股份(002353)、新奥股份(600803)、招 商轮船(601872)、中远海能(600026)、海油工程(600583)、招商南油(601975)，前十大权重股合计占比 66.48%。 油气ETF(159697)，场外联接A：019827；联接C：019828；联接I：022861。 截至2025年6月13日收盘，国证石油天然气指数(399439)强势上涨2.47%，成分股潜能恒信(300191)上涨 10.97%，中曼石油(603619)、泰山石油(000554)10cm涨停，石化油服(600871)，和顺石油(603353)等个股 跟涨。油气ETF(159697)收涨2.60%， 实现3连涨。 受中东局势急剧升温影响，WTI原油期货大涨10%，报74.99美元/桶，创2月3日以来新高。 ...

6月13日，中东局势急剧升级，A股三大指数今日集体下挫，截至收盘，沪指跌0.75%报3377点，深证成指跌1.1%，创业板指跌 1.13%。全天成交1.5万亿元，较前一交易日增量2004亿元，全市场近4500股下跌。 | 名称 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3377.00 | -25.66 | -0.75% | +0.75% | | 深证成指 | 10122.11 | -112.22 | -1.10% | -2.81% | | 北证50 | 1382.74 | -41.64 | -2.92% | +33.24% | | 创业板指 | 2043.82 | -23.33 | -1.13% | -4.57% | | 科创综指 | 1178.40 | -11.90 | -1.00% | +5.33% | | 科创50 | 972.94 | -5.03 | -0.51% | -1.62% | 盘面上，以色列袭击伊朗致国际油价、国际金价大涨，黄金、石油及天然气等板块集体拉升，通源石油、洲际油气、西部黄金等多股 涨停；核污染 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market saw significant gains in the oil and natural gas sector, with notable stocks such as Keli Co. rising by 26%, Tongyuan Petroleum hitting the daily limit, and potential gains in other companies like Huaneng Gas and Beiken Energy [1] - Gold-related stocks also performed well, with Cuihua Jewelry reaching the daily limit and West Gold nearing the limit, alongside other companies showing gains [1] ETF Performance - Major ETFs in the oil and gas sector experienced substantial increases, with the Jiashi Fund's S&P Oil & Gas ETF rising by 7.68% and the Fuguo Fund's version increasing by 7.45% [3] - Other ETFs, including the Energy Chemical ETF and Oil & Gas Resource ETF, also showed positive performance, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [3] Geopolitical Impact - The geopolitical situation escalated with Israel's attacks on Iran, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, with Brent crude increasing over 9% to $75.76 per barrel, marking a new high since April [5] - Gold prices also surged, with spot gold rising by 1.5% to over $3430 per ounce, the highest since May [5] Oil and Gold Market Dynamics - The Israeli military's actions against Iran are expected to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while rising geopolitical tensions are likely to keep oil prices strong [7] - The recent increase in oil prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over oil production safety in the Middle East [7] ETF Composition and Characteristics - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF tracks the S&P Oil & Gas Upstream Stocks Total Return Index, which includes a diverse range of companies primarily focused on upstream oil and gas development [9][11] - The index consists of 53 components, employing an equal-weighted methodology that favors smaller companies, thus presenting a higher risk-reward profile compared to market-cap weighted indices [11]