2025 年 9 月 30 日 集运指数（欧线）：关注宣涨与地缘事件发酵 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2510 | 1,115.0 | -3.11% | 16,679 | 29,314 | -3,117 | 0.57 | | 0.68 | | 期货 | EC2512 | 1,756.3 | -1.36% | 11,879 | 20,683 | -1,012 | 0.57 | | 0.89 | | | EC2602 | 1,667.0 | -1.47% | 4,011 | 8,852 | 84 | 0.45 | | 0.74 | | | EC2510 - EC ...

Group 1: National Social Security Fund Report - The National Social Security Fund reported an investment income of 218.418 billion yuan for 2024, with an investment return rate of 8.10% [1] - The fund's realized income amounted to 43.651 billion yuan, with a realized return rate of 1.64% [1] - The fund's average annual investment return rate since its establishment is 7.39%, with a cumulative investment income of 1,900.998 billion yuan [1] Group 2: A-Share Market Performance - On September 29, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 2% [2] - More than 3,500 stocks in the A-share market rose, with over 60 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - The market's trading volume reached 2.18 trillion yuan, marking the 34th consecutive trading day with a volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2] Group 3: AI Glasses Industry Growth - The AI glasses industry has experienced explosive growth this year, with major companies releasing new products and a significant increase in shipment volumes [3] - The Wind Intelligent Wearable Index rose by 1.34% as of September 29, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - Analysts believe the AI glasses industry is transitioning from technological exploration to large-scale commercialization, with strategic value recognized across the industry [3] Group 4: New Policy Financial Tools - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy financial tools with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital [4] - The commission is working to ensure these funds are allocated to specific projects to stimulate effective investment and promote economic stability [4] - The shipping industry is expected to see a surge in demand for green methanol, projected to increase from tens of thousands of tons annually to 30-40 million tons by 2030 [4] Group 5: Private Equity Fund Positioning - Over 65% of surveyed private equity funds plan to maintain high positions or be fully invested during the holiday, indicating a consensus to stay engaged in the market [5][8] - Some private equity funds are looking to invest in undervalued sectors, while others believe the technology sector will regain its status as a market leader [5][8] Group 6: Employee Stock Ownership Plans - A total of 167 listed companies have implemented employee stock ownership plans this year, with 144 companies disclosing a total funding scale of 15.399 billion yuan [6] - The enthusiasm for employee stock ownership plans has increased, with many companies seeing stock price increases following the announcement of these plans [6][7] Group 7: Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector has become a hot topic in the A-share market, with multiple stocks experiencing significant price increases [7] - Companies like Mengguli and Zhonglun New Materials have reported advancements in solid-state battery technology, indicating potential applications in various fields [7] Group 8: Public Fund Issuance Trends - Public funds have accelerated their product issuance, with 1,138 new funds launched this year, a 31.87% increase compared to the same period last year [9] - The "A+H" listing model is gaining traction, with 20 A-share companies planning to list in Hong Kong, driven by supportive policies and streamlined approval processes [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Tianjin Hexi District is making significant progress in achieving high-quality economic development and fulfilling the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected GDP exceeding 130 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 26% increase in public budget revenue and a 39% increase in fixed asset investment compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The district emphasizes five "persistences" to drive economic growth, including collaboration with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, attracting 795 enterprises and achieving an investment of 11.3 billion yuan [2][3]. - The district aims to enhance service industries, targeting a service sector GDP share of 94.6% by 2024, with a 62% contribution from productive services [3][4]. Group 2: Innovation and Reform - The district is focusing on technological innovation, establishing 16 enterprise technology centers and creating innovation hubs, resulting in a 20% annual growth in technology contract transactions [3][4]. - Reforms in state-owned enterprises and the business environment are being implemented, with 231 reform measures introduced to enhance efficiency and attract foreign investment [4][5]. Group 3: Cultural and Social Development - The district is investing in cultural infrastructure, with over 500 community activities promoting social values and enhancing public cultural services, benefiting over 300,000 people [5][6]. - The tourism sector is being revitalized, with a projected 27 million domestic tourists in 2024 and a 35.4% increase in cultural tourism revenue compared to 2023 [6][7]. Group 4: Urban Governance and Quality of Life - The district is implementing child-friendly urban planning, with 35 new or renovated schools and 62,000 new student placements [7][8]. - Environmental improvements are being prioritized, with a 37.3% reduction in PM2.5 levels since 2020 and a commitment to maintaining 100% compliance in water quality and land use safety [7][8].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600751 900938 证券简称：海航科技 海科B 公告编号：2025-040 关于海航科技股份有限公司 开展金融衍生品业务（远期运费协议）的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 交易主要情况 （一）交易目的 目前，公司自有干散货船舶资产10艘，合计运力规模约93万载重吨，自有船队包括大灵便型船6艘、好 望角型船3艘、巴拿马型船1艘；同时，公司在2025年上半年内通过期租租赁方式增加4艘灵便型船，控 制运力增加约24万载重吨。为有效应对市场波动带来的风险，减少对公司及控股子公司经营的不利影 响，在保证正常经营的前提下，在风险可控范围内，公司及控股子公司拟使用自有资金开展以套期保值 为目的的金融衍生品交易业务，冲抵全部或部分风险敞口。 （二）交易金额 根据业务及风险控制的需要，公司及控股子公司拟以具体经营业务为依托，以套期保值、防范市场风险 为目的开展远期运费协议（FFA）业务，交易保证金金额将不超过300万美元，在任一交易日持有 ...

Core Insights - The global first methanol dual-fuel car carrier "Gangrong" has successfully docked at Tianjin Port, marking a significant step towards establishing a low-carbon fuel hub in international shipping [1][2] - The methanol used for bunkering is produced from waste tires and biomass, achieving over 70% carbon reduction throughout its lifecycle, and can reduce CO2 emissions by 460 tons in a single operation [1] Industry Developments - The global shipping industry's decarbonization efforts are accelerating, with over 50% of new ship orders in 2024 expected to be dual-fuel vessels, indicating a clear trend towards green methanol as a mainstream alternative fuel [1] - Tianjin Port is strategically located near major green methanol production areas, offering significant transportation cost advantages and equipped with comprehensive storage and transportation facilities [1] Company Highlights - The "Gangrong" vessel, built by China Merchants Industry, measures 219.9 meters in length and 37.7 meters in width, with a capacity of 9,300 standard car spaces, positioning it among the largest car carriers globally [2] - The vessel's power system allows for flexible switching between traditional fuel and methanol, meeting the highest emission standards set by the International Maritime Organization, and can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by over 70% when using green methanol [2]

Core Points - HNA Technology Co., Ltd. held its 12th Board of Directors' fourth meeting on September 29, 2025, to address market volatility risks and ensure stable operations for the company and its subsidiaries [1][2] - The board unanimously approved two significant proposals: the first is to engage in financial derivatives business through forward freight agreements (FFA) to hedge against market risks, with a maximum trading margin of $3 million and a maximum contract value of $30 million on any trading day [1] - The second proposal involves conducting foreign exchange derivatives trading to mitigate exchange rate and interest rate risks, with a maximum trading margin and premium not exceeding $3 million and a total usage limit of $80 million [1] Proposal Details - The FFA business aims to use proprietary funds for hedging purposes, with the approved trading limits valid for 12 months from the board's approval date [1] - The foreign exchange hedging business will allow for a maximum trading amount of $80 million, which can be reused within the authorized period, also valid for 12 months [1] - Both proposals do not constitute related party transactions and do not require shareholder meeting approval, reflecting the company's commitment to proactive risk management and stable operations [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - The market continues to rebound, in line with the report's bottoming - out prediction, with far - month contracts stronger. It is recommended to control risks by holding an empty position during the holiday and setting stop - losses [2] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottoming process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4] - Although liner companies have announced a freight rate increase for late October, there are doubts about the implementation, and the market fluctuates widely and moves downward under the long - short game. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On September 22, SCFIS (European route) was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [3] - On September 26, NCFI (composite index) was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 614.14 points, down 8.83%; NCFI (US West route) was 868.22 points, down 8.11% [3] - On September 26, SCFI was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; SCFI (European route) was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70%; SCFI (US West route) was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% [3] - On September 26, CCFI (composite index) was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1401.91 points, down 4.7%; CCFI (US West route) was 824.92 points, up 2.4% [3] Economic Data - Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3] - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4] - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (August final value was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value was 54.6) [4] Contract Information - On September 26, the main contract 2510 closed at 1139.0, down 1.86%, with a trading volume of 22,000 lots and an open interest of 32,400 lots, a decrease of 3095 lots from the previous day [4] Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and far - month contracts are stronger, in line with the bottoming - out prediction. Risk - takers are recommended to try to go long on the 12 and 02 contracts around 1600. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] Other Information - The circuit - breaker limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5] - On September 27, local time, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) was reported to agree to the US - proposed Gaza cease - fire plan, but Hamas has not yet commented. On September 26, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu defended Israel's military actions in the Gaza Strip and multiple Middle Eastern countries at the UN General Assembly, and his speech was protested by many parties [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the fourth week of September, the new - home market in the real estate sector heated up while the second - hand home market cooled down. The "Golden September" effect remains to be seen, but the year - on - year central value is positive, and the second - hand home market in first - tier cities has shown some repair after policy relaxation. Land transactions and premiums are at a low level. [2] - On the production side, freight volume in the industrial sector remains high, coal consumption per day continues to decline, and the industry's operating rates are differentiated. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand have slightly recovered, black supply and demand are weak, and asphalt operating rate has significantly increased. [2] - In terms of external demand, throughput year - on - year remains high, and freight rates have generally decreased month - on - month but recovered year - on - year. [2] - In the consumption sector, travel enthusiasm remains resilient, automobile consumption is basically flat, and National Day travel orders are booming. [2] - In terms of prices, crude oil is significantly affected by supply and geopolitical factors, black - series prices are generally strong, and copper prices have risen due to supply - expectation disturbances. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Consumption - Travel enthusiasm is differentiated. Subway travel has decreased, the congestion delay index has increased, and flight operation rates are lower than those of the same period last year. [3][7] - Automobile consumption is basically flat, textile consumption has recovered, and express delivery collection volume is at a high level. [3][8] - The National Day travel flow and orders are booming. New - type and cross - border tourism are on the rise, and consumption and prices may increase. [3][9] 2. Real Estate - New - home transaction heat has increased, with third - tier cities leading in structure. Second - hand home market heat has declined, and high - level cities' second - hand home markets have slightly cooled down. [6][11] - Second - hand home listing prices and volumes have both decreased. [6][12] - Land market premiums and transaction volumes are at a low level. [6][12] - Last week, real estate policies continued to strengthen on the demand side, including measures in Shanghai and Dongguan. [13] 3. Production - Coal consumption per day has decreased, hydropower generation remains high, and coal prices have increased. [14][15] - Construction industry funds in place have increased year - on - year, with a differentiation between housing construction and non - housing construction funds. [16] - Cement supply and demand have increased, inventory has increased, and prices have risen. Black supply and demand are weak, inventory has decreased, and prices are differentiated. Asphalt operating rate has increased, and prices have risen. PVC operating rate has increased, and styrene operating rate has decreased. [16][17] - Freight volume heat continues, and operating rates are differentiated between upstream and downstream. [18] 4. Construction Industry - Construction industry construction funds have increased year - on - year. [16] - Cement supply and demand have improved, with demand stronger than supply, inventory has increased, and prices have risen. Black supply and demand are weak, and asphalt operating rate has increased year - on - year. [4][16][17] 5. External Demand - Port cargo throughput and container throughput remain resilient. [4][19] - Freight rates: RJ/CRB year - on - year growth rate has decreased, BDI has recovered, international route freight rates have weakened, and domestic import freight rates have increased month - on - month. [4][19][20] - South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of September and Vietnam's exports in the first half of September have shown positive year - on - year growth. [4][19] - The preliminary values of the US Markit manufacturing and service PMI in September have declined, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly fallen into the contraction range. [4][20] 6. Prices - The agricultural product index has increased, while the domestic Nanhua industrial product index and the external RJ/CRB index have decreased. [5] - Crude oil, coke, rebar, glass, and non - ferrous metal prices have increased, and iron ore prices have slightly decreased. [5][22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. port fee policy targeting Chinese vessels, referred to as the "shipping tax," is set to significantly impact Chinese shipping companies, with steep fee increases scheduled from 2025 to 2028 [1][5]. Group 1: New Port Fee Policy - The new port fee policy will charge Chinese shipowners/operators $50 per net ton in 2025, escalating to $140 per net ton by 2028, with a maximum of five charges per ship per year [1]. - Non-Chinese operators using Chinese-built vessels will face initial fees of $18 per net ton or $120 per TEU, rising to $33 per net ton and $250 per TEU in three years [1]. Group 2: Financial Impact on Companies - China COSCO Shipping Holdings may incur up to $1.5 billion in annual port fees by 2026, representing 5.3% of its projected annual revenue and consuming 74% of its expected EBIT [5]. - Orient Overseas International may face port fees of $654 million in 2026, accounting for 65% of its expected EBIT [5]. Group 3: Exemptions and Compliance - Certain exemptions exist for domestic shipping vessels, empty bulk carriers, and some roll-on/roll-off ships, but most container ships used in cross-border e-commerce are subject to the fees [4]. - Ships that fail to pay the fees on time will face severe penalties, including operational bans or detention [3]. Group 4: Industry Response - Major shipping companies are adjusting strategies, such as replacing vessels with those built in non-Chinese shipyards to avoid fees [9]. - The Premier Alliance plans to split existing routes to prevent Chinese-built ships from docking at U.S. ports [10]. - Companies are exploring transshipment routes through Canada, Mexico, or Caribbean ports to mitigate the impact of the new fees [11]. Group 5: Statements from Shipping Companies - Maersk has stated it will not pass additional costs onto customers and will adjust vessel deployment to avoid U.S. routes [13]. - CMA CGM has indicated it will not impose extra fees for shipments to the U.S. despite the challenges posed by the new service fees [13]. - MSC has announced a proactive restructuring of its global fleet network to manage the new costs, with a significant portion of its fleet built outside China [13]. Group 6: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The current market reflects a combination of short-term price advantages and long-term structural adjustments, necessitating flexibility and proactive planning [15]. - Companies are advised to seize opportunities in the current low freight rates for non-urgent shipments while preparing for potential long-term cost increases due to the new port fees [15][16]. - Supply chain resilience is emphasized as a critical factor for companies navigating the dual challenges of rising shipping costs and fluctuating freight rates [16].

据悉，新增航线精准匹配中澳新能源汽车贸易需求。近期，中国工业和信息化部等八部门联合印发《汽 车行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，明确2025年新能源汽车销量目标约1550万辆(同比增长20%左 右)，并提出保持汽车出口稳定增长的要求。与此同时，澳大利亚新能源汽车市场正迎来发展窗口期： 该国政府发布《国家电动交通战略》，设定2030年新能源汽车占新车销售30%的目标；设立"清洁交通 基金"，通过购置税收优惠、直接补贴激活市场需求；出台《国家电动交通行动计划》，明确2027年实 现该国充电桩数量翻倍。 中新网上海9月28日电 (陈静韩静)28日，由中国航运企业运营的澳新班轮直航航线在上海南港码头迎来 首航。该航线聚焦澳大利亚、新西兰市场，新增运力与航线布局将进一步拓宽国产汽车的"出海"物流通 道。 此次首航的"维京翡翠"轮(马绍尔群岛籍)为4300车位的汽车滚装船。据船方介绍，本航次共装载2330件 货物，涵盖多个品牌新能源汽车、少量工程车与汽车配件，将驶向澳大利亚墨尔本、肯布拉、布里斯班 等港口。 为保障首航各环节高效顺畅，洋山边检站提前对接船方、码头运营企业、相关汽车制造企业及航线运营 企业等单位 ...