食品饮料里的周期股 vs 成长股比较 20250923 摘要 细分赛道竞争格局良好或对手表现较弱，为相关企业带来增长机会，需 关注收入和利润双位数增长趋势，如妙可蓝多、重庆啤酒、银价和东鹏 等案例，在景气上行期实现显著收益。 成长股定价逻辑基于增长空间，复合增速或大单品增速决定估值水平。 例如，30%-50%的大单品增速对应约 30 倍估值，15%-20%的收入增 速且利润双位数增长也对应约 30 倍估值，PEG 估值可作为参考。 成长股预期回报通常以至少翻倍为目标，买入时点至关重要，景气周期 较短。风险管理核心在于选股，组织能力、品类成长趋势和竞争格局是 关键，业绩验证阶段风险降低，此类股票受公募基金青睐。 食品饮料板块存在周期股，如白酒、康师傅、万洲国际和现代牧业，具 有强周期性，可通过理性研究左侧判断买入节点，不要求高增长，但利 润率改善确定性强，价格较好时应大胆买入。 食品饮料周期股特点包括周期规律明确、产业成熟期孕育龙头、分红较 高，受保险资金和外资偏爱。风险管理重点在于周期高点的判断，买入 时点相对容易把握，判断准确应早期重仓。 成长股预期回报通常按照至少翻倍收益来评估，因此买入时间点非常重要，因 ...

Market Overview - On September 24, the non-liquor sector increased by 0.2% compared to the previous trading day, with Yanjing Beer leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Non-Liquor Sector Performance - The following companies in the non-liquor sector showed notable performance: - Xianjing Beer (Code: 000729) closed at 12.25, up 2.25% with a trading volume of 338,500 shares and a turnover of 414 million yuan [1] - Caogao Co. (Code: 600543) closed at 5.81, up 1.93% with a trading volume of 59,100 shares and a turnover of 34.13 million yuan [1] - ST Xifa (Code: 000752) closed at 11.40, up 1.88% with a trading volume of 32,000 shares and a turnover of 36.20 million yuan [1] - Weilang Co. (Code: 603779) closed at 6.96, up 1.46% with a trading volume of 39,400 shares and a turnover of 27.29 million yuan [1] - Huichuan Beer (Code: 600573) closed at 11.47, up 1.24% with a trading volume of 17,800 shares and a turnover of 20.32 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - On the same day, the non-liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 72.39 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 68.12 million yuan [2] - The following companies had significant capital flows: - Yanjing Beer (Code: 000729) had a net inflow of 8.75 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 33.91 million yuan [3] - ST Xifa (Code: 000752) had a net inflow of 1.24 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow from retail investors [3] - Zhujiang Beer (Code: 002461) had a net inflow of 1.20 million yuan from institutional investors and a net inflow from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of executive changes at China Resources Beer and China Resources Land, effective September 23, 2025, with Zhao Wei resigning from China Resources Beer and Guo Shiqing resigning from China Resources Land due to other work commitments [2][5]. Group 2 - Zhao Wei has been appointed as an executive director, executive committee member, chief financial officer, board secretary, and authorized representative of China Resources Land, effective September 23, 2025 [8]. - Guo Shiqing's resignation includes his roles as executive director, executive committee member, chief financial officer, and board secretary of China Resources Land [5][17]. Group 3 - Zhao Wei's background includes over 20 years of experience in financial management, having held various significant positions within China Resources Beer and its subsidiaries [10][11]. - Guo Shiqing has been with China Resources Land since 2001 and has held multiple key positions, including chief financial officer since June 2020 [15][17]. Group 4 - Zhao Wei's annual remuneration at China Resources Beer for 2024 was reported to be 2.90 million RMB, which includes a basic salary and allowances of 1.05 million RMB, provident fund contributions of 0.16 million RMB, and a bonus of 1.69 million RMB [13]. - Guo Shiqing's annual remuneration for 2024 was reported to be 3.145 million RMB, which includes a salary and allowances of 1.104 million RMB, defined contribution plan contributions of 0.217 million RMB, and a discretionary bonus of 1.824 million RMB [17].

Core Insights - Fujian Province has exported beer worth 603 million yuan from January to August this year, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.57%, and accounting for 23.42% of the national beer export total, maintaining the top position in the country [1] Export Performance - The main export market for Fujian beer is other Asian countries and regions, with exports amounting to 598 million yuan from January to August, reflecting an 18.01% year-on-year increase, which constitutes 99.17% of the province's total beer exports during the same period [1] Support Measures - To assist beer production companies in expanding overseas markets, Xiamen Customs has guided enterprises to optimize production processes in accordance with relevant technical regulations, ensuring compliance with standards related to microorganisms and food additives [1] - Xiamen Customs has established a "fast inspection and release" green channel to address the short shelf life and high time sensitivity of beer, facilitating smooth coordination between sampling, laboratory testing, and customs clearance to ensure that beer is exported at its best quality [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of a global partnership between Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD.US) and Netflix, marking the largest and most extensive global marketing campaign in the history of Anheuser-Busch's brand portfolio [1] - The collaboration will integrate promotional content into various popular global and regional Netflix shows, utilizing Anheuser-Busch's brand strength [1] - Marketing activities will include consumer engagement events, title placements, limited edition packaging, and digital promotions, alongside co-marketing during Netflix's live events and major global sporting events [1] Group 2 - As of September 23, Anheuser-Busch's pre-market stock price increased by 0.92% to $59.13, following the partnership announcement [1] - The company's market capitalization stands at approximately $115.149 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.74 and a dividend yield of 1.790% [1] - The stock has seen a 52-week high of $72.130 and a low of $45.157, indicating significant price fluctuations over the past year [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beer (00291) announced the resignation of Mr. Zhao Wei as the executive director and Chief Financial Officer, effective from September 23, 2025, due to other work arrangements [1] Company Summary - Mr. Zhao Wei will no longer serve as a member of the finance committee under the board of directors [1]

Group 1 - On September 22, southbound funds reduced their holdings in China Resources Beer (00291.HK) by 715,000 shares, representing a decrease of 0.37% [1][2] - Over the past five trading days, there were four days of net increases in holdings by southbound funds, totaling a net increase of 2,304,500 shares [1][2] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 13 days of net increases, with a cumulative net increase of 11,218,500 shares, bringing the total holdings of southbound funds in China Resources Beer to 194 million shares, which accounts for 5.98% of the company's issued ordinary shares [1][2] Group 2 - China Resources Beer Holdings Company Limited primarily engages in the production, sales, and distribution of beer products, operating in both domestic and international markets [2] - The company's main subsidiaries include China Resources Beverage Trade Co., Ltd., China Resources Snow Beer Co., Ltd., and China Resources Snow Beer (Sichuan) Co., Ltd. [2]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer, a century-old brand, emphasizes the importance of quality management and innovation to drive high-quality development and enhance consumer experience [1][2]. Group 1: Quality Management and Innovation - Qingdao Beer has established the largest dedicated malt factory in the beer industry and created a "barley fingerprint database" to enhance the quality of its products [2]. - The company has received four national science and technology progress awards, being the only beer company to achieve this recognition [2]. - Qingdao Beer integrates traditional craftsmanship with advanced smart manufacturing and lean production to ensure consistent high-quality products [2]. Group 2: Product and Experience Innovation - The company has developed a product matrix with over 100 differentiated new products across nine series, leading the industry in new product launches and sales revenue [4]. - Qingdao Beer implements a "full lifecycle, full process coverage" quality data management system, allowing for transparent traceability of over 1,800 quality monitoring points [3]. - The company has created immersive experience venues such as TSINGTAO 1903 bars and craft beer gardens to enhance consumer engagement and experience [4]. Group 3: Market Presence and Brand Development - Qingdao Beer exports to over 120 countries, promoting the "Chinese quality" image on the international stage [4]. - The company has been recognized as the first "sustainable lighthouse factory" in the global food and beverage industry, showcasing its commitment to sustainability [2]. - Qingdao Beer has been featured prominently in national quality events, reinforcing its role as a representative of the beverage industry [1].

经济观察网据厦门海关统计，前8个月，福建省累计出口啤酒6.03亿元，同比增长14.57%，占同期全国 啤酒出口总值的23.42%，稳居全国第一。数据显示，亚洲其他国家和地区是福建省啤酒主要出口市 场，前8个月共出口5.98亿元，同比增长18.01%，占同期福建省啤酒出口总值的99.17%。 ...

Group 1 - Heineken Group announced a $3.2 billion cash acquisition of Florida Ice and Farm Company's beverage and retail business, strengthening its market position in Central America [1] - The acquisition will provide Heineken with full control of Distribuidora La Florida and Heineken Panama, expanding its operations into El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, and acquiring 75% of Nicaragua Brewing Holding [1] - Key assets from the acquisition include the well-known Costa Rican beer brand "Imperial," a soft drink business with PepsiCo bottling rights, and over 300 retail outlets in the region [1] Group 2 - Heineken emphasized the significant growth potential and expanding profit pool in the Central American market, particularly focusing on Costa Rica to capture local consumption upgrades and market expansion benefits [2] - As of the latest market close, Heineken's stock price has risen 8% year-to-date, reflecting market recognition of its strategic positioning [2]