食品饮料行业 证券研究报告 |2026年度投资策略报告 2025/12/30 年度投资策略报告—— 底部向阳，寻找结构性亮点 郭梦婕 S1190523080002 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 林叙希 S1190124030019 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： P2 报告摘要 2025年消费需求承压，酒类和餐饮链表现相对靠后，市场给予新品&新渠道&边际改善充分定价。回顾2025年初至今消费需求整体平 淡，社零和CPI数据低位运行，传统消费量价承压，性价比、健康化、情绪价值和出海仍是大趋势和结构化亮点。从细分板块来看， 酒类和餐饮链表现较弱，主要由于二季度开展整顿违规吃喝活动对餐饮大盘有所影响，同时商务需求较弱。白酒Q1后逐季度走弱， 三季度板块报表集体出清，除茅台、汾酒和金种子酒以外酒企营收利润均呈现下滑，贵州茅台飞天散瓶批价从年初2200元一路下跌 至近期的1550元，龙头酒企今年动销和库存压力也进一步凸显。啤酒板块在餐饮需求疲软下量价承压，高端化进程阶段性放缓，行 业整体表现显著跑输大盘，原材料端大麦、玻璃等成本下行，为盈利能力提供一定缓冲。零食、饮料业绩相对抗压，呈现高频消费 和低客单价特点，今年出 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【计算机研究】电科数字：公司在数字化产品业务板块已具备行业领先能力，涵盖智能计算软 硬件和数智应用软件，在行业数字化领域和数字新基建模块都处于头部地位；核心子公司柏飞电 子是国产化嵌入式计算龙头，随特种电子装备景气度上升，柏飞电子订单快速放量；AI 和信创加 持之下，未来发展空间广阔。 2、【非金属类建材研究】建材：防水行业是消费建材中出清最彻底的子行业，2026 年行业头部企 业有望继续推进复价策略，行业盈利能力修复可期。 3、【交通运输研究】航空：2025 年中国民航供需继续恢复，预计将行业性扭亏。目前客座率高企 而票价仍处低位，供给已进入低增时代，需求稳健增长与客源结构恢复将驱动票价与盈利上行。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 杨林(分析师) 021-23183969 yanglin2@gt ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Yanjing Beer with a target price of 14.08, compared to the last closing price of 12.49 [1]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with a significant increase in net profit and a focus on shareholder returns through its first quarterly dividend distribution [6][7]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 134.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 17.70 billion, up 37.45% year-on-year [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 134.33 billion, with a net profit of 17.70 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.57% and 37.45% respectively. In Q3 alone, revenue was 48.75 billion, with a net profit of 6.68 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.55% and 26.00% [4][5]. - **Cost and Margin**: The cost per ton decreased to 2030 yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 47.19% for Q1-Q3 2025, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q3 reached 16.17%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. - **Sales Performance**: The company maintained a trend of increasing sales volume and price, with Q1-Q3 sales volume at 349.52 million tons and price at 3843 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.39% and 3.1% respectively [5][6]. Future Projections - The report projects a revenue growth rate of 4% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth rates of 45%, 18%, and 14% for the respective years. The expected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.54, 0.64, and 0.73 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23x, 20x, and 17x [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][10][4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.87 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million yuan, up 26.0% year-on-year [7][10] - Despite a slowdown in total sales growth, the high-end product U8 continues to show strong growth, contributing to an improved product mix [7][9] - The gross margin has continued to improve year-on-year, with a 2.2 percentage point increase in Q3, driven by product mix improvement and lower raw material costs [8][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 670 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.0% [7][10] - The sales growth rate for beer volume was 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease from 2.0% in H1, primarily due to weak industry demand and regulatory impacts [7][9] - The revenue per thousand liters of beer increased by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in product structure [7][9] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year in Q3, continuing the trend from the previous two quarters [8][10] - The company has successfully reduced management expenses, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios decreasing year-on-year [8][10] Future Outlook - The company expects stable sales growth in Q4, with continued strong performance from the U8 product line, which is projected to achieve a sales volume of nearly 900,000 tons for the year [9][10] - Long-term profitability is anticipated to improve as the company continues to implement cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures [9][10] Earnings Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue forecast for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 15.37 billion, 16.22 billion, and 17.14 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 5.5%, and 5.7% [10][12] - The net profit forecast for the same period is adjusted to 1.57 billion, 1.85 billion, and 2.20 billion yuan, with growth rates of 49.1%, 17.7%, and 18.6% respectively [10][12]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is at a historical crossroads, facing both challenges and opportunities due to rational consumption trends and the impact of artificial intelligence on industry logic [1] - The "World Famous Wine Value Conference" held in Wuhan addressed key industry questions regarding the redefinition of liquor value, the shift from scale expansion to value creation, and the globalization of Chinese liquor [1] Industry Trends - The global liquor industry is undergoing structural changes, with the high-end and luxury segments leading growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3%, particularly driven by the Asia-Pacific region [2] - The Chinese baijiu market is expanding steadily, with a CAGR of 2.3%, showcasing strong industry resilience and cultural roots [2] - Traditional business banquet markets are contracting, while personalized and emotionally connected consumption scenarios are rapidly emerging, emphasizing the need for liquor brands to adopt innovative strategies for differentiation [2] Consumer Behavior - The concept of rational consumption has gained consensus, with consumers prioritizing products that offer a balance of cost-effectiveness, quality, and emotional value [4] - The long-term development of world-famous liquors should focus on the values of "coexistence, empathy, and sharing," integrating industry with nature and society [4][5] Internationalization Challenges - China's baijiu currently holds only a 2.3% share in the international market, highlighting the need for the industry to overcome misconceptions and adopt successful strategies from international wine markets [7] - Recommendations for internationalization include aligning with international standards, innovating products and marketing strategies, and fostering collaboration among industry players [7] Innovation and Strategy - Leading companies are responding to industry changes through innovative practices, such as digital empowerment, cross-industry collaborations, and enhancing consumer experiences [10] - Anhui Gujing Group is leveraging digitalization to enhance traditional brewing processes and is actively promoting baijiu internationally [12] - Luzhou Laojiao is focusing on brand innovation through product diversification and cultural collaborations to connect with younger consumers [14] - Qingdao Beer is enhancing consumer engagement through innovative product offerings and efficient delivery systems [19] Future Directions - The conference outlined a clear roadmap for the future of Chinese liquor, emphasizing the importance of gratitude towards nature, commitment to quality, and deep emotional resonance with consumers [30] - The industry is encouraged to embrace the philosophy of "coexistence, empathy, and sharing" to navigate the challenges ahead and achieve sustainable growth [30]

Group 1: Yanjing Beer (000729) - The company reported a revenue of 8.558 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.103 billion yuan, up 45.45% [5][6] - The beer business saw revenue of 7.896 billion yuan in H1 2025, with sales volume reaching 2.3517 million kiloliters, a 2.03% increase, and an average price of 3,357.57 yuan per kiloliter, up 4.75% [6][7] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 45.50%, an increase of 2.14 percentage points, driven by product structure upgrades, while the net profit margin was 12.89%, up 3.47 percentage points [7][8] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 1.503 billion, 1.807 billion, and 2.111 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating growth rates of 42.41%, 20.17%, and 16.86% [8] Group 2: Global Smart Glasses Market - The global smart glasses market experienced a 110% year-on-year growth in H1 2025, with expectations of maintaining a compound annual growth rate of over 60% from 2024 to 2029 [10][11] - Meta holds a dominant market share of 73% in the smart glasses sector, with new entrants like Xiaomi and RayNeo accelerating market expansion [10][11] - The AI glasses segment accounted for 78% of total shipments in H1 2025, indicating a strong demand for AI-integrated devices [11] - The introduction of new products, such as HTC's VIVE Eagle and Meta's upcoming "Celeste," is expected to further drive market growth [11] Group 3: Semiconductor Equipment Industry - Domestic semiconductor equipment has achieved breakthroughs with the mass production of 28nm electron beam measurement equipment and the testing of the first commercial electron beam lithography machine [12] - The domestic market for semiconductor electron beam measurement equipment is projected to reach a scale of 2.383 billion USD by 2024, with a 22.46% compound annual growth rate expected from 2024 to 2030 [12] - The first domestically produced commercial electron beam lithography machine, "Xizhi," is designed for quantum chips and new semiconductor devices, achieving processing precision at international mainstream levels [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Yanjing Beer in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 8.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.04 billion yuan, up 39.9% year-on-year [3][7][9] - The company continues to benefit from structural improvements in its product offerings, particularly the U8 product line, which has shown strong sales growth and contributed to an overall increase in profitability [8][10] Financial Performance - In 1H25, Yanjing Beer sold a total of 2.35 million kiloliters, reflecting a 2.0% increase year-on-year, with a unit price of 3,358 yuan per ton, which is a 4.8% increase year-on-year [8][9] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues and net profits of 4.73 billion yuan and 880 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 6.1% and 38.4% [3][7] Cost Management and Profitability - The company's gross profit margin for its beer business improved by 1.0 percentage points to 45.7% in 1H25, while the net profit margin increased by 3.5 percentage points to 12.9% [9][10] - The report notes a significant reduction in sales and management expense ratios, which were 6.0% and 9.2% respectively in 2Q25, down 4.0 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [9] Market Strategy and Future Outlook - Yanjing Beer plans to enhance its market presence by increasing the sales proportion of its U8 product in key markets and expanding into underperforming regions [8][10] - The company is also diversifying its product offerings, with plans to launch new beverages such as Best Soda in 2025, leveraging synergies between beer and soft drink production [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 12.51 and an industry rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer has shown impressive performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of RMB 8.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.04 billion, up 39.9% year-on-year. The company's sales volume reached 2.35 million kiloliters, reflecting a 2.0% increase [3][4][7]. - The company's reform benefits are continuously being realized, with improved cost efficiency and sustained high momentum for its flagship product U8. The report anticipates continued growth in profitability [3][4][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of RMB 8.56 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.04 billion, marking a 39.9% increase year-on-year. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of RMB 4.73 billion and a net profit of RMB 0.94 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 6.1% and 43.0%, respectively [9]. - The gross profit margin improved to 45.5% in 1H25, up from 43.4% in 1H24, while the net profit margin increased to 12.9% from 9.4% in the same period [9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report projects revenues for 2025 to be RMB 15.43 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 1.51 billion, reflecting a growth of 42.9% [6][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 0.54 for 2025, with a significant increase from previous years [12]. Market Position and Strategy - Yanjing Beer is focusing on enhancing the market share of its U8 product in key markets while also expanding into weaker markets. The company plans to launch new products, including beverages, to diversify its offerings and leverage synergies in production and distribution [7][9]. - The company has shown strong performance in the North China region, with a revenue increase of 5.6%, and is targeting high-growth cities for further market penetration [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Beijing Yanjing Brewery with a target price of Rmb 13.50, based on a current price of Rmb 12.51 [2][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with robust growth in both volume and average selling price (ASP), highlighting operational resilience. In H1 2025, revenue reached Rmb 8.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb 1.10 billion, up 45.4% year-on-year [3][10]. - The growth in beer sales volume and ton price was 2.0% and 4.8%, respectively, reaching 2.352 million tons and Rmb 3,358 [3][10]. - The product structure is continuously optimizing, with revenue from mid-to-high-end products increasing by 9.3% year-on-year, now accounting for 70% of total revenue [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - Revenue for 2024 is projected at Rmb 14.67 billion, increasing to Rmb 15.09 billion in 2025, and Rmb 15.28 billion in 2026 [9]. - Net profit is expected to grow from Rmb 1.06 billion in 2024 to Rmb 1.51 billion in 2025, and Rmb 1.69 billion in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 64% and 43% for the respective years [9]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be Rmb 0.37 in 2024, Rmb 0.53 in 2025, and Rmb 0.60 in 2026 [9]. Operational Efficiency - The company has seen a significant improvement in its net profit margin, which rose to 12.9% in H1 2025, with Q2 net profit margin exceeding 19.8% [5][12]. - The gross profit margin for the beer business improved to 45.7%, with overall gross profit margin at 45.5% [5][12]. - The expense ratios for sales and management have decreased, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The flagship product U8 is expected to achieve an annual sales target of 900,000 tons, contributing significantly to revenue growth [6][13]. - The "beer + beverage" strategy has shown initial success, with tea beverage revenue increasing by 98.7% year-on-year [6][13]. - The company is deepening its "100 cities and 100 counties" project to accelerate market penetration in weaker regions [6][13].

Core Viewpoints - The liquor instant retail market is entering a rapid development phase, with significant room for channel penetration. Instant retail is defined as a "supply revolution" driven by consumer lifestyles, transitioning from "selling products" to "selling scenarios" [6][8] - The transformation of liquor channel models is accelerating, making the rapid development of instant retail a necessity. As the competition landscape for liquor stabilizes, consumers are increasingly pursuing price-performance ratios through diversified channels, leading to a contraction in traditional channel profits [7][10] - Liquor companies are actively embracing channel changes and expanding into instant retail and online channels. Instant retail is not just a sales channel but a way for liquor brands to integrate into residents' lifestyles, enhancing consumer engagement [7][10] Market Overview - The liquor instant retail market is projected to reach a scale of 36 billion yuan in 2024, with a penetration rate of approximately 1.8%. The growth potential remains vast, with estimates suggesting the market could reach 60-90 billion yuan by 2030 [6][20] - Instant retail channels are categorized into two main models: platform models that integrate resources (e.g., Meituan Flash Purchase) and self-operated models that maintain strong supply chain control [8][21] - The rapid growth of instant retail channels is driven by changing consumer lifestyles and the need for efficiency, with a focus on enhancing consumer experiences and meeting demand in lower-tier markets [10][20] Industry Opportunities - Instant retail creates opportunities for the liquor industry, such as serving as a trial ground for younger products and facilitating collaboration between liquor companies and platforms to co-create products [8][10] - The traditional profit margins in liquor channels are shrinking, prompting companies to adopt digital management and consumer-centric strategies to enhance efficiency [7][10] - The beer segment, with non-immediate consumption channels accounting for 60%, is also seeing a shift towards instant retail, which helps capture market share in lower-tier cities [10][20] Company Strategies - Major liquor brands are actively recruiting operators on multiple platforms, with companies like Moutai and Qingdao Beer launching new products and innovative sales models [7][10] - Companies are leveraging instant retail to enhance operational efficiency and product innovation, with a focus on high-end product offerings and consumer engagement [8][10] - The collaboration between liquor companies and platforms is expected to foster a more efficient and consumer-oriented sales environment, driving growth in the sector [7][10]