[Table_Reportdate] 2025年08月22日 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [证券分析师： Table_Authors] [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250822 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.燕京啤酒（000729）：飞轮效应显现，盈利持续向上——公司简评报告 ➢ 2.全球智能眼镜市场上半年同比增长110%，国产半导体设备迎双重突破——电子行业周 报2025/8/11-2025/8/18 ➢ 1.美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值为53.3，好于预期 ➢ 2.美国与欧盟发表联合声明，双方已就贸易协定框架达成一致 ➢ 3.国家发改委：将于近期开展中央冻猪肉储备收储 | 1.1. 燕京啤酒（0 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 8 月 15 日 | 8 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 600276.SH | 恒瑞医药 | | 688198.SH | 佰仁医疗 | | 600861.SH | 北京人力 | | 300395.SZ | 菲利华 | | 601138.SH | 工业富联 | | 002938.SZ | 鹏鼎控股 | | 688615.SH | 合合信息 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250815 ■重点关注 【食品饮料】燕京啤酒*邓天娇。燕京啤酒公告 2025 年上半年业绩。1H25 公司营收 85.6 亿元，同比+6.4%，扣非归母净利 10.4 亿元，同比+39.9%。1H25 公司销量合计 235 万千升，同比+2.0%。2Q25 公司营收、扣非归母净利分别 为 47.3 亿元、8.8 亿元，同比分别+6.1%、+38.4%。公司改革红利持续释放， 费用率优化，大单品 U8 高势能延续，公司盈利能力持续向上。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 12.51 and an industry rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer has shown impressive performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of RMB 8.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.04 billion, up 39.9% year-on-year. The company's sales volume reached 2.35 million kiloliters, reflecting a 2.0% increase [3][4][7]. - The company's reform benefits are continuously being realized, with improved cost efficiency and sustained high momentum for its flagship product U8. The report anticipates continued growth in profitability [3][4][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of RMB 8.56 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.04 billion, marking a 39.9% increase year-on-year. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of RMB 4.73 billion and a net profit of RMB 0.94 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 6.1% and 43.0%, respectively [9]. - The gross profit margin improved to 45.5% in 1H25, up from 43.4% in 1H24, while the net profit margin increased to 12.9% from 9.4% in the same period [9]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report projects revenues for 2025 to be RMB 15.43 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 1.51 billion, reflecting a growth of 42.9% [6][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 0.54 for 2025, with a significant increase from previous years [12]. Market Position and Strategy - Yanjing Beer is focusing on enhancing the market share of its U8 product in key markets while also expanding into weaker markets. The company plans to launch new products, including beverages, to diversify its offerings and leverage synergies in production and distribution [7][9]. - The company has shown strong performance in the North China region, with a revenue increase of 5.6%, and is targeting high-growth cities for further market penetration [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Beijing Yanjing Brewery with a target price of Rmb 13.50, based on a current price of Rmb 12.51 [2][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with robust growth in both volume and average selling price (ASP), highlighting operational resilience. In H1 2025, revenue reached Rmb 8.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb 1.10 billion, up 45.4% year-on-year [3][10]. - The growth in beer sales volume and ton price was 2.0% and 4.8%, respectively, reaching 2.352 million tons and Rmb 3,358 [3][10]. - The product structure is continuously optimizing, with revenue from mid-to-high-end products increasing by 9.3% year-on-year, now accounting for 70% of total revenue [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - Revenue for 2024 is projected at Rmb 14.67 billion, increasing to Rmb 15.09 billion in 2025, and Rmb 15.28 billion in 2026 [9]. - Net profit is expected to grow from Rmb 1.06 billion in 2024 to Rmb 1.51 billion in 2025, and Rmb 1.69 billion in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 64% and 43% for the respective years [9]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be Rmb 0.37 in 2024, Rmb 0.53 in 2025, and Rmb 0.60 in 2026 [9]. Operational Efficiency - The company has seen a significant improvement in its net profit margin, which rose to 12.9% in H1 2025, with Q2 net profit margin exceeding 19.8% [5][12]. - The gross profit margin for the beer business improved to 45.7%, with overall gross profit margin at 45.5% [5][12]. - The expense ratios for sales and management have decreased, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The flagship product U8 is expected to achieve an annual sales target of 900,000 tons, contributing significantly to revenue growth [6][13]. - The "beer + beverage" strategy has shown initial success, with tea beverage revenue increasing by 98.7% year-on-year [6][13]. - The company is deepening its "100 cities and 100 counties" project to accelerate market penetration in weaker regions [6][13].

Core Viewpoints - The liquor instant retail market is entering a rapid development phase, with significant room for channel penetration. Instant retail is defined as a "supply revolution" driven by consumer lifestyles, transitioning from "selling products" to "selling scenarios" [6][8] - The transformation of liquor channel models is accelerating, making the rapid development of instant retail a necessity. As the competition landscape for liquor stabilizes, consumers are increasingly pursuing price-performance ratios through diversified channels, leading to a contraction in traditional channel profits [7][10] - Liquor companies are actively embracing channel changes and expanding into instant retail and online channels. Instant retail is not just a sales channel but a way for liquor brands to integrate into residents' lifestyles, enhancing consumer engagement [7][10] Market Overview - The liquor instant retail market is projected to reach a scale of 36 billion yuan in 2024, with a penetration rate of approximately 1.8%. The growth potential remains vast, with estimates suggesting the market could reach 60-90 billion yuan by 2030 [6][20] - Instant retail channels are categorized into two main models: platform models that integrate resources (e.g., Meituan Flash Purchase) and self-operated models that maintain strong supply chain control [8][21] - The rapid growth of instant retail channels is driven by changing consumer lifestyles and the need for efficiency, with a focus on enhancing consumer experiences and meeting demand in lower-tier markets [10][20] Industry Opportunities - Instant retail creates opportunities for the liquor industry, such as serving as a trial ground for younger products and facilitating collaboration between liquor companies and platforms to co-create products [8][10] - The traditional profit margins in liquor channels are shrinking, prompting companies to adopt digital management and consumer-centric strategies to enhance efficiency [7][10] - The beer segment, with non-immediate consumption channels accounting for 60%, is also seeing a shift towards instant retail, which helps capture market share in lower-tier cities [10][20] Company Strategies - Major liquor brands are actively recruiting operators on multiple platforms, with companies like Moutai and Qingdao Beer launching new products and innovative sales models [7][10] - Companies are leveraging instant retail to enhance operational efficiency and product innovation, with a focus on high-end product offerings and consumer engagement [8][10] - The collaboration between liquor companies and platforms is expected to foster a more efficient and consumer-oriented sales environment, driving growth in the sector [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry, specifically for alcoholic beverages, is "Outperform the Market" [1]. Core Insights - The alcoholic beverage instant retail sector is entering a rapid development phase, with significant room for channel penetration. Instant retail is defined as a "supply revolution" and "efficiency revolution" driven by consumer lifestyles. Major platforms are increasing capital investment, suggesting a new development stage for local living, with instant retail platforms likely transitioning from "selling products" to "selling scenarios" [3][11]. - The market size for alcoholic beverage instant retail is projected to reach 36 billion yuan in 2024, with a penetration rate of approximately 1.8%. By 2030, the market could expand to between 60 billion and 90 billion yuan, driven by both supply and demand [3][17]. - The current instant retail channels are categorized into two models: platform models that integrate resources and self-operated models that maintain strong supply chain control [3][19]. - Alcoholic beverage companies are actively embracing channel transformation, with a focus on instant retail and online channels. This shift is seen as a crucial attempt for brands to integrate into consumers' lifestyles [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Development of Alcoholic Beverage Instant Retail - Instant retail is creating "all-weather scenarios" for consumers, accelerating supply-side development [7][11]. - The demand for alcoholic beverages in instant retail is increasing, particularly during nighttime hours, with younger consumers driving this trend [11][12]. 2. Necessity of Channel Transformation - The transformation of alcoholic beverage channels is deemed inevitable due to changing consumer lifestyles and the need for supply chain efficiency [3][31]. - The competition landscape for white and beer products is stabilizing, with consumers forming brand loyalty [3][4]. 3. Potential Opportunities and Highlights - Instant retail channels provide a testing ground for younger products, allowing companies to innovate with lower costs and better data feedback for product development [5][27]. - The shift towards high-end products in the beer sector is facilitated by instant retail, which allows for rapid turnover and the introduction of craft and fresh beer products [5][41]. 4. Accelerated Layout of Instant Retail Channels - Alcoholic beverage companies are increasingly investing in instant retail channels, viewing them as essential for integrating into consumer lifestyles [3][4]. - Companies like Moutai and others are actively recruiting operators on platforms like Meituan and Douyin to expand their consumer base [3][4]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Short-term impacts of instant retail on the competitive landscape of white and beer products may be limited, but long-term opportunities exist for companies that adapt to channel changes [4][5]. - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Guizhou Moutai, Yanjing Beer, and Chongqing Beer [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1][51]. Core Insights - The beer industry is entering a consumption peak, with expectations for recovery due to rising temperatures and improved consumption policies [2][31]. - The white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with a focus on structural opportunities in mass-market products [2][20]. - The soft drink sector continues to show high growth potential, driven by new product launches and expanded consumption scenarios [3][38]. - The food processing sector is experiencing a capital globalization phase, with significant fundraising for capacity and channel upgrades [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The food and beverage sector increased by 0.62% in the week of June 30 to July 4, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.54% [6][7]. 2. Core Data Tracking 2.1. White Liquor - The white liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, with a cumulative production of 159.7 million liters from January to May 2025, down 7.6% year-on-year [20][41]. - The price of Feitian Moutai increased by 65 yuan to 1935 yuan, while the price of Guojiao 1573 remained stable at 835 yuan [20][22]. 2.2. Beer - In May 2025, the beer production reached 358.4 million liters, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [31][32]. 2.3. Dairy Products - The production of dairy products in May 2025 was 243.3 million tons, with a notable increase in fresh milk prices showing signs of stabilization [33][35]. 2.4. Soft Drinks - The beverage production in May 2025 was 1,613.1 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [38][39]. 2.5. Other - The approval of D-allohexose as a new food ingredient signals policy support for synthetic biological technology in food materials [40]. 3. Important Company Dynamics - Anjiu Foods officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 4, raising 2.3 billion HKD for capacity and channel upgrades [3][48].

Macroeconomic Overview - In June, China's CPI year-on-year was 0.1%, exceeding expectations of 0.0% and the previous month's value of -0.1% [3] - The core CPI year-on-year reached 0.7%, the highest since April 2024, compared to 0.6% in May [3] - June's PPI year-on-year was -3.6%, the lowest since July 2023, with expectations of -3.2% [4] Advanced Manufacturing Sector - In June, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.084 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [7] - The production of new energy passenger vehicles in June reached 1.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [7] - The top five companies in new energy vehicle exports in June were BYD, Chery, Tesla China, SAIC Passenger Vehicle, and SAIC-GM-Wuling [7] Consumer Sector - Yanjing Beer projected a net profit of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% to 50% [9] - The second quarter net profit is estimated to be between 900 million to 970 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 36.7% to 48.3% [9] - Despite a slight decline in sales due to a June alcohol ban, the overall profit growth remains robust, with U8's sales ratio exceeding 30% in several provinces [9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing a new high for the year, driven by strong performance in the consumption sector, particularly the Consumption ETF (159928) which has seen significant inflows and positive stock performance among its constituent companies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is close to reaching 3500 points, marking a new high for the year [1]. - The Consumption ETF (159928) recorded a 0.5% increase with a total trading volume of 239 million yuan, and it has seen a net subscription of 82 million units over two consecutive days, bringing its total size to over 11.9 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Yanjing Beer reported a strong first-half earnings forecast, projecting a net profit of 1.062 to 1.137 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 50% [3]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 896 million to 972 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37% to 48% [3]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The "618" shopping festival demonstrated significant growth in domestic consumption, with platforms like JD and Tmall leading in various categories, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [4]. - The promotion of "old-for-new" policies in the home appliance and 3C sectors has driven increased foot traffic in stores, with a year-on-year increase of 105% [4]. Group 4: Industry Insights - The new consumption trend is expected to continue despite short-term adjustments, with a focus on low-valuation stocks that have potential catalysts [7]. - The food and beverage sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with ongoing structural adjustments providing opportunities for growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the coming months [4][6]. Core Insights - Yanjing Beer is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.062-1.137 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-50% [2]. - The company is actively pursuing cost reduction and efficiency improvement strategies, which have contributed to maintaining high profit growth [2][3]. - The company plans to expand its market presence through initiatives like the "Hundred Cities Project" and the introduction of a "Beer + Beverage" marketing strategy [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Yanjing Beer anticipates a net profit of 896-972 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.7%-48.3% [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, raising the expected net profits to 1.457 billion yuan, 1.737 billion yuan, and 2.012 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25x, 21x, and 18x [4][11]. Cost Management - Yanjing Beer has implemented a "multi-dimensional cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" model, utilizing digital tools to monitor raw material prices and optimize procurement strategies [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from a downward trend in raw material costs, such as malt and glass bottles, in 2025 [3]. Market Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding into emerging markets and new retail channels, particularly through the U8 product line and the "Hundred Cities Project" targeting high-tier cities [3]. - The introduction of the "Beer + Beverage" strategy aims to leverage synergies between beer and soft drink production and distribution [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects an increase in gross margin from 37.6% in 2023 to 41.9% by 2027, indicating improved profitability [13]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at 0.52 yuan, with a projected dividend per share of 0.24 yuan [14].