| 2025年8月存量房网上签约 | | | --- | --- | | 网上签约套数: | 15007 | | 网上签约面积(m2): | 1328728.1000 | | 住宅签约套数: | 13331 | | 住宅签约面积(m2): | 1228780.9900 | 北京商报讯（记者 王寅浩 李晗）北京市住建委官网数据显示，9月21日北京新房网签260套，网签面积23709.19平方米，其中住宅网签169套，网签面积 20457.96平方米；二手房网签140套，网签面积11603.03平方米，其中住宅网签127套，网签面积10767.88平方米。 | 商品房数据统 | | --- | | 可售期房统计 | | 2025 年8月预售许可 | | 2025/9/21月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 可售房屋套数: | 101865 | 批准预售许可证: | 12 | 网上认购: | | 可售房屋面积(M-): 8339158.9000 | | 批准预售面积(M²):269377.5500 | | 网上认购面积( | | 其中 住宅續数: | 44324 | 其中 住 ...

楼市迷局：买房还是持币？一场关乎财富与未来的抉择 几日前，与友人小聚，话题不免俗地落在了资产配置之上。老张率先发声，言之凿凿地阐述了他抛售市 中心小户型，手握现金静待楼市触底反弹的策略。话音未落，老李便针锋相对，分享了他购置郊区大三 居的决定，虽首付压力不小，但总算拥有了一个安身立命之所。两人你来我往，争论得面红耳赤，却始 终无法说服彼此。 这场争论折射出的，或许是当下许多人面临的共同困境：在风云变幻的经济大环境下，究竟是迎风而 上，购置房产，还是按兵不动，持币观望，以待时机？ 这绝非一道简单的选择题，它不仅关乎个人的财富保值增值，更牵动着无数家庭的未来走向。毕竟，对 于绝大多数普通人而言，房子不仅仅是遮风避雨的居所，更是家庭资产配置中最为重要的组成部分。 回溯过去两年的房地产市场，我们目睹了一场深刻的调整。国家统计局的数据清晰地勾勒出这一轮调整 的轨迹：2024年，全国商品房销售面积同比大幅下降12.3%，创下近十年来历史新低。这股下行之风， 自一线城市开始，迅速蔓延至二三四线城市，房价也随之呈现出不同程度的回落。 支持购房的人士普遍认为，房子作为一种生活必需品，无论市场如何波动，其根本需求始终存在。随着 ...

曾以30.9亿元总价刷新惠州地价纪录的佳兆业樾伴湾项目，在经历两次流拍后，于8月1日-9月31日以12.91亿元起拍价进入司法变卖。发稿前，虽吸引超 4796次围观，32人设置提醒， 无人报名。 该项目位于鹿江沥南岸，总建面约38.75万㎡，原计划打造高端豪宅社区， 因佳兆业债务危机于2022年5月停 工。目前一期1-7号楼主体完工，已销售33套住宅。三期两栋楼竣工。评估报告显示，项目估值23.05亿元，起拍价仅12.91亿元，是拿地价4.2折，楼面价 约3331元/㎡，相当于 就算不讲建安等成本，5年就亏了18亿。 今年6月第二次以16.13亿元起拍但流拍。业内人士分析， 利润空间虽存，但市场信心不足 仍是成交最大障碍。 | 自贝 | 法元 | 公司 | 秋高 | 元 125 | 目行yri | WE 有准状管 | 流相用系 | | Q 标的物名称/地理位置/投行禁 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 。 惠州市惠城区鹿江沥南岸LJL-47-21地块的土地使用权及地上9幢建 ...

Group 1: Macro and Market Insights - The resilience of China's exports to non-US markets is driven by the recovery of consumer spending in the EU, demand for intermediate goods from ASEAN, and deepening cooperation with Africa [2] - Future export growth is expected to be supported by product competitiveness and global capital expenditure increases due to industrial policies in developed countries and recovery in manufacturing PMI [2] Group 2: Market Strategy - The current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is at a relatively high level since 2010, indicating potential short-term profit-taking pressure and increased market volatility [3] - Recommended sectors for September include power equipment, communications, computers, electronics, automobiles, and media, with a long-term focus on the TMT sector [3] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The issuance of credit bonds increased by 55.61% week-on-week, with a total of 455 bonds issued amounting to 579.91 billion [9] - The secondary market for REITs showed a slight recovery, with the weighted REITs index rising to 186.23, reflecting a 0.1% return for the week [6] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The report highlights the nearing mass production of Tesla's Optimus V3 and the transition of intelligent driving assistance systems into a "strong standard" era, recommending companies like NIO, Xpeng Motors, and SAIC Motor [10] Group 5: Chemical Industry - The second-generation fluorinated refrigerant quota is being further reduced, leading to a tightening supply and a significant increase in product prices, benefiting leading companies in the fluorochemical sector [11] Group 6: Real Estate Sector - China Resources Vientiane Life reported a retail revenue of 122 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with a core net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 39.9/44.6/50.0 billion [12] - China Overseas Property's revenue grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with a stable performance in the real estate market, maintaining a "buy" rating [13] - Huafa Group's net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 3.5/5.8/7.7 billion, with a focus on cautious land acquisition and business development [14] Group 7: Nonferrous Metals Industry - Yun Aluminum's revenue reached 29.078 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.98%, with a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 40% [15]

这些棘手的问题并非突如其来，而是过去几年经济环境变动累积的必然结果。只不过，随着时间的推移，它们的轮廓将在下半年变得越发清晰，冲击力也愈 发显著。 "寒冬预警：2025年下半年，家庭财富面临严峻考验" 经济的潮水悄然退去，暴露出的却是冰冷的事实。当房价不再是稳赚不赔的"印钞机"，家庭资产的迅速缩水，预示着一股严峻的生活挑战正悄然逼近。预计 从2025年下半年开始，至少半数的家庭将不得不面对日益沉重的经济压力，日子恐将举步维艰。 房贷重压，利息吞噬收入 首当其冲的便是日益沉重的房贷压力。以我的同事为例，他于2021年购入的房产，当时贷款利率高达5.8%。如今，每月需偿还的房贷接近8000元，这笔巨 款几乎占据了他工资的大半江山。尽管近期央行下调了LPR至3.5%，但对于他这样的"存量房贷"客户而言，银行的回复冷冰冰——"不在调整范围内"。这意 味着，他仍需按照高利率支付月供，感受着利息如吸血鬼般不断蚕食着他的收入。 央行数据显示，全国有超过4000万家庭背负着5%以上的房贷利率，每月多支出的利息，相当于变相"少拿了半个月的工资"。房价跌去了不少，但贷款余额 却纹丝不动。这场景，如同那位九年前斥资21亿港币在香港 ...

A-shares Market - On September 18, A-shares experienced a rapid decline after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3831.66 points, down 1.15%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13075.66 points, down 1.06%. The ChiNext Index fell by 1.64% to 3095.85 points. Despite the decline, the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.135 trillion yuan, an increase of 758.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking the third-highest trading volume of the year [2] - On September 18, 18 A-shares registered for equity distribution, with 17 companies proposing dividends and one company planning to implement dividends, capital increase, or stock distribution simultaneously [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has imposed strict penalties on several companies for financial fraud, including *ST Dongtong and Yili Clean Energy, sending a strong signal of "zero tolerance" for such behaviors [2] - The Beijing Stock Exchange continues to see high activity in new stock listings, with the stock of Sanxie Electric rising by over 860% on its first trading day, closing up 785.62%, marking the highest first-day increase of the year [2] Insurance Sector - In the first half of the year, listed insurance companies showed a mixed performance in investment returns. Companies like Xinhua Insurance and China Ping An reported strong results after increasing their equity allocations, particularly in high-dividend stocks. Conversely, China Taiping's investment performance weakened significantly, with total investment income dropping by 41.6% year-on-year, and the annualized total investment return rate falling from 5.27% to 2.68% [3] Banking and Financial Products - Current bank deposit rates have generally fallen below 2%, although some private banks like Huari Bank and WeBank still offer large-denomination certificates of deposit with rates exceeding 2%. These high-yield products are in high demand and are quickly sold out [4] - As of September 12, the number of domestic securities investment private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan has reached 92, with quantitative private equity firms making up nearly 50% of this group [4] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a reduction in the base interest rate to 4.5%, effective immediately, based on a formula referencing the lower limit of the current U.S. federal funds rate target range plus 50 basis points [4] Government Bonds - On September 17, the Ministry of Finance announced the completion of the competitive bidding for the second issuance of the 2025 ultra-long special government bonds, with a total face value of 35 billion yuan for a 20-year fixed-rate bond. The overall issuance scale of ultra-long special government bonds this year has reached 1.148 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 88.3% [4] Real Estate Market - In August, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to show a narrowing year-on-year decline, with positive signals in property sales, inventory reduction, and corporate financing. A series of supportive policies have improved market expectations and accelerated demand release [6] Tax Revenue - In the first eight months of the year, tax revenue collected by the tax authorities increased by 2% year-on-year, with significant growth in July and August due to heightened activity in the capital markets, where tax revenue from the securities industry grew by over 70% in both months [7] - From January to August, the general public budget revenue reached 148.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. Tax revenue was approximately 121.085 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02% [8]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Finance Bureau announced a policy adjustment on September 19, allowing non-local homebuyers to be exempt from property tax for newly purchased second homes if the average per capita housing area does not exceed 60 square meters [1] - This marks the first substantial optimization of the property tax pilot program since its inception in 2011, aimed at reducing disparities between local and non-local residents and encouraging talent to live and work in Shanghai [1] - The policy is expected to positively impact non-local families looking to purchase multiple homes, potentially boosting housing demand and transaction recovery [1] Group 2 - Recent policy optimizations in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, combined with seasonal demand, are anticipated to restore the real estate market's fundamentals [2] - Current real estate sector valuations are considered low, suggesting a favorable environment for investors to accumulate real estate stocks [2] - Developers focusing on core first and second-tier cities with a strong emphasis on improvement products and sustained land acquisition capabilities are recommended as potential beneficiaries of upcoming policy benefits [2]

9月份以来，北京、上海、杭州、成都等城市土地市场延续较高热度。中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹 晶晶在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，整体来看，房企拿地持续聚焦优质地块，热点城市优质地块 热度延续，其余区域底价成交仍是常态，城市间、板块间分化仍在加剧。 9月17日，成都出让两宗涉宅用地，总土地出让面积52607.63平方米，成交总金额12.73亿元。 9月15日，浙江省义乌市成功出让北苑街道宾王路与世俊路交叉口南侧地块。该地块在经过72轮竞价 后，由本地民营企业义乌市盈泰置业有限公司以2.46亿元的总价竞得，溢价率40.54%。 9月9日，浙江省永康市东虹南区东南角地块同样由本地民营企业以高溢价率竞得。金华市听涧置业有限 公司以总价2.60亿元拍下该地块，溢价率高达72.19%。 "这表明还是有部分企业资金宽松，且会积极拿地和投资。"严跃进认为，这也说明一线及强二线城市等 重点区域的核心地块因稀缺属性仍将保持高溢价成交。 优质地块支撑热度 房企聚焦重点区域 今年以来，土地市场保持较高热度。中指研究院数据显示，今年前8个月，TOP100企业拿地总额达6056 亿元，同比增长28.0%。 具体来看，拿地金额前十企业中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is undergoing a significant transformation, with a projected decline in property values over the next five years due to demographic shifts, oversupply, and decreasing purchasing intent among younger generations [1][3][11]. Group 1: Demographic Changes - The aging population in China is increasing rapidly, with 60+ individuals reaching 310 million, accounting for 22% of the total population. This is expected to exceed 400 million by 2035, representing nearly 30% of the population [3]. - The primary home-buying demographic is shrinking, as the younger population (those born in the 90s and 00s) is significantly smaller than older generations [3][7]. - Approximately 70% of individuals aged 60 and above already own homes and show little interest in purchasing additional properties, while younger buyers are deterred by high prices and financial pressures [3][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a significant oversupply in the housing market, with 6 billion homes available, which is sufficient for 30 billion people, while the current population is only 1.4 billion [3]. - Over 10 million new homes are added to the market annually, but demand is declining, with 96% of families already owning homes [3][9]. - In a recent case, a property development in a third-tier city sold only 50 out of 300 units in six months, highlighting the lack of buyers rather than a shortage of homes [3][9]. Group 3: Future Property Value Projections - In core areas of first-tier cities, property values may decline by 10-15%, bringing a 2 million yuan property down to approximately 1.7-1.8 million yuan [4]. - In non-core areas of second-tier cities, property values could drop by 20-25%, resulting in a value of about 1.5-1.6 million yuan [4]. - In third and fourth-tier cities, property values may decrease by 30-40%, leading to a valuation of around 1.2-1.4 million yuan [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - The investment appeal of real estate is diminishing, prompting a shift towards other asset classes such as stocks and funds [8]. - The notion that housing is primarily for living rather than speculation is gaining traction, aligning with the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy direction [11]. - The market is expected to undergo a "de-bubbling" process, where property values align more closely with their actual living value rather than speculative gains [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to trigger a new round of "value reassessment" in China's first-tier real estate market, similar to the effects seen in 2019, with potential for significant price increases and increased foreign investment [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has led to a decline in the US dollar index, which in turn has strengthened the Chinese yuan, making Chinese real estate more attractive to international investors [2][4]. - The average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers in China has dropped to 3.45%, with expectations that it may soon enter the "2% era" in first-tier cities, significantly reducing monthly payments and total interest costs for borrowers [4][5]. Group 2: Changes in Financing Environment - The improved financing environment for real estate developers is evident, as lower interest rates on existing debts will reduce annual interest expenses, allowing companies like Baolong Real Estate to save approximately $5 million annually on a $1 billion debt [4][5]. - The recent policy changes by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to facilitate overseas individuals purchasing property in China will simplify the process for foreign investors, potentially increasing capital inflow into the real estate market [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Buyer Sentiment - Despite favorable policies, buyer confidence remains low, with a reported 10.7% decline in real estate development investment and a 2.9% drop in new housing sales in the first five months of 2025 [7][11]. - The differentiation in real estate markets between first-tier cities and lower-tier cities is becoming more pronounced, with first-tier cities expected to attract more buyers due to stronger economic fundamentals [7][9]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategies - Foreign investment strategies in China's real estate market are shifting from short-term speculation to long-term value holding, as evidenced by the establishment of a RMB 3 billion private equity fund focused on office buildings and consumer infrastructure in the Yangtze River Delta [5][6]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market indicates that while external factors like the Fed's rate cut may provide temporary relief, the fundamental issues of market confidence and demand need to be addressed for a sustainable recovery [11].