Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pig market in the first half of 2025 is experiencing a "spot price decline and wide fluctuations in futures," with overall prices showing a downward trend but at a lower rate than previously expected [1] Price Trends - As of the end of June, the average price of pigs in producing areas is 14.86 yuan/kg, down by 0.91 yuan/kg, while in selling areas, the average price is 15.35 yuan/kg, down by 0.94 yuan/kg [1] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the pig market will see an increase in both supply and demand in the second half of the year, potentially leading to a short-term price rebound supported by seasonal demand recovery and market sentiment [1] Influencing Factors - Short-term price movements will be influenced by the seasonal demand increase in the third quarter and the sentiment around holding back pigs from the market, while long-term price performance will depend on the sustainability of capacity reduction [1]

Group 1 - The company Jin Xin Nong (002548) reported a total pig sales volume of 112,200 heads in June 2025, including 52,300 commercial pigs, 57,800 piglets, and 2,100 breeding pigs [1] - The sales revenue from pig sales reached 122 million yuan, with an average selling price of 14.76 yuan per kilogram for commercial pigs [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total pig sales volume amounted to 632,300 heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.57%, while the total sales revenue was 763 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.23% [1]

Core Insights - The company Tianbang Food (002124) reported sales of 506,300 commodity pigs in June 2025, including 175,400 piglets, generating a revenue of 675 million yuan with an average selling price of 15.88 yuan per kilogram, showing a month-on-month change of 1.08%, -4.01%, and -2.52% respectively [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company sold 2.9582 million commodity pigs, including 950,300 piglets, with a total revenue of 4.143 billion yuan and an average selling price of 16.19 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year change of -1.99%, 3.94%, and -1.16% respectively [1] Sales Performance - In June 2025, the sales volume of commodity pigs was 506,300 heads, with piglet sales accounting for 175,400 heads [1] - The revenue for June 2025 was 675 million yuan, with an average price of 15.88 yuan per kilogram [1] - The sales volume for the first half of 2025 reached 2.9582 million heads, with piglet sales at 950,300 heads [1] Revenue Analysis - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 4.143 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 16.19 yuan per kilogram [1] - The year-on-year revenue change for the first half of 2025 was 3.94% [1] - The month-on-month revenue change for June 2025 showed a decrease of 4.01% compared to the previous month [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights various paths to wealth in rural revitalization, including individual efforts, collective industrial upgrades, and strong policy support, creating a vibrant picture of rural development and farmer prosperity [1] Group 2 - In Liaoning Province, farmer Yan Dalei has successfully cultivated 22,000 acres of milk thistle, achieving two harvests per year by planting soybeans after the thistle, significantly increasing land utilization [2] - The annual production of milk thistle extract in Panjin, Liaoning exceeds 1,300 tons, accounting for over 90% of global production, with products exported worldwide [2] Group 3 - The Northeast New Wholesale Market in Beijing is investing in a national agricultural product supply chain center in Panjin, with a total investment of 1.1 billion yuan and a planned area of 250,000 square meters, focusing on a modern fruit trading center [3] - The project aims to enhance the connection between enterprises and farmers, promoting mutual development [3] Group 4 - Zhang Liang, a flower farmer in Yunnan, established a cooperative that has grown to 263 members, cultivating over 2,000 acres of roses, emphasizing high-quality and standardized production [4] - The cooperative has implemented an investment model that allows members to earn income through land leasing, local employment, and year-end dividends, with projected sales revenue of nearly 80 million yuan in 2024 [4] Group 5 - In Ningxia, the beef cattle industry is a pillar of the local economy, with over 6,800 households engaged in cattle farming, supported by policies like "calf subsidies" [5] - By the end of 2025, the expected cattle population in Jingyuan County will reach 120,000, with livestock output value projected to reach 390 million yuan, driving the total industry chain value over 1 billion yuan [5] Group 6 - In Hebei, the county has developed over 4,600 acres of Chinese waxberry through a "company + base + large growers + farmers" model, introducing deep processing products like waxberry tea and oil [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [4] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating [4] - Live Pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [5] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [6] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Cotton: Oscillating [10] - Sugar: Oscillating [11] - Pulp: Oscillating with a bearish bias [12] - Logs: Oscillating with a bearish bias [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products. In the short - term, the prices of live pigs and oils and fats may show a bullish trend, while protein meal, corn, and other products will oscillate. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs may face pressure, and the sugar market may decline due to expected supply increases [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Yesterday, the market oscillated and showed differentiation. The market should continue to monitor changes in the US biodiesel policy. Due to technical buying and optimistic demand expectations for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry, US soybeans rose on Wednesday, and domestic oils oscillated and showed differentiation yesterday, with palm oil being relatively strong. In the future, oils may continue to oscillate with a bullish bias, but the sustainability of the upward trend should be noted [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - The price rose first and then fell, continuing to oscillate. Internationally, the US "Big and Beautiful" Act was passed, and US soybeans rebounded from the lower limit of the range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate, and supply pressure may lead to a weakening of spot prices. In the long - term, protein meal may be supported by cost and oscillate in the short - term [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - The futures market remained weak, and the spot market stabilized. The current fundamentals of the corn market are affected by factors such as rainfall, changes in supply rhythm, and wheat substitution. The short - term trend is oscillating [4][5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - Affected by the expected supply - side reform in the industry, the live pig futures market rebounded. In the short - term, pig prices have temporarily changed from weak to strong, but in the long - term, there is still supply pressure [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Rubber prices continued to fluctuate with commodities. The current fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively stable, with limited price changes, and the market is waiting for new variables [6][8]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - The weak raw materials dragged the market down. The current fundamentals of synthetic rubber are not significant, and the market mainly follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities. The market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the previous low support [9]. 3.1.7 Cotton - Low inventory supports cotton prices. Although there are expectations of increased production in the new season, the current low inventory structure is expected to be beneficial to cotton prices, and the short - term price may be relatively resistant to decline [10]. 3.1.8 Sugar - The external market continued to weaken, and the domestic - foreign price difference widened. Domestically, there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure [11]. 3.1.9 Pulp - The futures market continued to rebound, but the spot market did not follow. The supply - demand situation of pulp is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [12]. 3.1.10 Logs - The fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. The log market is in a traditional off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak on both sides [13]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of multiple varieties, including the prices of live pigs, oils and fats, cotton, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis in this part [16][47][66][105][118][133][152]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards such as "bullish", "oscillating with a bullish bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a bearish bias", and "bearish", and the time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks [165].

农产品日报 | 2025-07-04 养殖端持续挺价，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14370元/吨，较前交易日变动+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.21%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格15.30元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+930，较前交易日变动-70；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.64元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1270，较前交易日变动+70；四 川地区外三元生猪价格14.86元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.18元/公斤，现货基差LH09+490，较前交易日变动+150。 据农业农村部监测，7月3日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.17，比昨天下降0.21个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为112.13，比昨天下降0.24个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.29元/公斤，比昨天下降1.2%；牛肉63.67 元/公斤，与昨天持平；羊肉59.20元/公斤，比昨天下降0.9%；鸡蛋7.07元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡17.18元/ 公斤，比昨天上升0.5%。 市场分析 综合 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the growth and development of the Xilin Gol sheep brand, highlighting the establishment of a robust supply chain and the benefits to local herders [1][2][3] - As of June 30, 17 authorized enterprises have signed purchase agreements with over 5,000 herders, securing a supply of 1.1729 million sheep [1] - The authorized enterprises are implementing a traceability system to ensure the authenticity and quality of Xilin Gol sheep, with measures such as ear tags and QR codes for consumer guidance [1][2] Group 2 - In 2024, the Xilin Gol League plans to expand its brand coverage by authorizing an additional 7 enterprises, aiming for a total of 17 authorized enterprises [2] - The target for sheep purchases is set to exceed 1 million, representing a 45% increase compared to the previous year, which is expected to boost herders' income by over 25 million yuan [2] - The "order + social security" model introduced by authorized enterprises aims to support herders by providing social security funding while securing sheep supply [2]

Summary of Dekang Group's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Dekang Group - **Industry**: Pig Farming and Processing Key Points and Arguments Industry Response and Strategy - Dekang Group actively responds to the National Development and Reform Commission's supply-side reform policies, planning for an increase in breeding sows and innovating farming models such as empowerment and resource integration to meet future development needs [2][5] Production and Efficiency Metrics - The target for pig output in 2025 is set at 11 million heads, with no expected changes due to established production capacity [3] - The company’s full cost in the first half of 2025 is approximately CNY 12.4 per kilogram, with potential for further reduction through learning from European farm management practices [2][7] - Dekang Group leads the industry in efficiency metrics, with a market age of 110 kg being 12 days ahead of the industry average and a PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) of about 28 [8] Growth and Production Capacity - The company has invested significantly in the No. 2 farm model, which is expected to be a key growth point, with the "Hundred Villages, Million Heads" model exceeding 50,000 heads [4][12] - The slaughtering business has a designed capacity of 5 million heads, with an expected utilization rate of about 20% in 2025, leading to a slaughter volume of approximately 1 million heads [4][23] Cost Structure and Future Projections - Current cost structure remains stable, with feed accounting for about 70%, and breeding costs slightly increasing compared to the previous year [10][15] - The company’s daily weight gain is approximately 780 grams, with potential for further cost reduction through precise nutrition and technology reserves [9] Genetic Resources and Disease Control - Dekang Group possesses superior genetic resources, with purebred pigs reaching 100 kg in 122.6 days and a feed conversion ratio of 1.84 [11][30] - The company has excellent disease control measures, with diarrhea incidence maintained below 0.3%, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.5% [11] Market Dynamics and Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission's policies are expected to stabilize pig prices, with recent measures leading to a noticeable increase in prices during June and July 2025 [26] - The company plans to lower slaughter weights in response to government policies [18] Future Development Plans - Dekang Group aims to enhance its slaughter business capacity utilization to 80% within the next three to four years [24] - The company maintains a high level of cash reserves to address market uncertainties and growth needs, with no immediate plans for direct financing [34] Competitive Landscape - The market for pig farming is competitive, with other companies also entering the No. 2 farm model, but Dekang Group believes it has core competitive advantages and a strong reputation [21][20] Conclusion - Dekang Group is well-positioned for future growth with its innovative farming models, strong genetic resources, and strategic responses to government policies, while also focusing on cost efficiency and production capacity enhancement [36]

Group 1: Fixed Income - The prediction for June 2025 includes new loans of CNY 2.1 trillion and social financing of CNY 3.8 trillion, with M2 reaching CNY 329.2 trillion, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [6][9] - The social financing growth rate is expected to be 8.8%, with the increase primarily driven by net financing from government and corporate bonds [9][10] - The report anticipates a stable M2 growth and a slight recovery in M1 growth, indicating a gradual improvement in economic activity [8][9] Group 2: Cement Industry - The central government emphasizes the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality in the cement industry, aiming for a more orderly exit of outdated capacity [11][12] - The industry is expected to see a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a recovery in profitability, supported by falling coal prices [12][13] - The report suggests that leading companies are actively collaborating to maintain prices, indicating a strong awareness of avoiding "involution" in the industry [13][14] Group 3: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The central government aims to eliminate "involution" in competition, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation in the agricultural sector [14][16] - Future agricultural development may leverage biotechnology, smart equipment, and low-carbon agriculture to enhance productivity and sustainability [14][16] - The report highlights the importance of companies that balance technological advancement with farmer interests, suggesting that firms like Dekang could lead in this transition [16][17] Group 4: Yada Co., Ltd. - Yada Co., Ltd. specializes in smart power measurement and control products, with a significant revenue increase of 24.11% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [22][23] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in the new infrastructure and energy-saving sectors, with a focus on digital products [22][23] - Yada's products are widely used in critical infrastructure projects, indicating strong market demand and potential for future growth [22][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply decreases due to farmers' price - holding and reduced weight of pigs for sale at the beginning of the month, but there is a risk of delayed supply in the third quarter as sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle. High temperatures and school holidays suppress pork demand, resulting in slow terminal sales and a decline in slaughterhouse operating rates. The entry of second - fattening investors boosts the near - month price of live pigs. Continuous attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm and the entry rhythm of second - fattening investors [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 14,370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 79,652 lots, down 4,273 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 450 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,158 lots, down 2,550 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian is 15,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu is 17,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The basis of the main live - pig contract is 1,030 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly live - pig inventory is 41.731 million heads, down 1.012 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4.042 million heads, up 4,000 heads. The monthly CPI year - on - year change is - 0.1%, unchanged. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,436.86 yuan/ton, up 0.19 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 950.52, up 1.21. The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981,000 tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,640 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit for purchasing piglets is - 131.71 yuan/head, up 55.08 yuan; for self - breeding and self - raising is 50.25 yuan/head, up 30.85 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The weekly average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises is 32.16 million heads, up 1.39 million heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel data, the planned live - pig output of key provincial breeding enterprises in July 2025 is 13.005 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. At the beginning of the month, farmers hold prices and reduce the volume of pigs for sale, and the average weight of pigs for sale decreases, resulting in a short - term reduction in supply. The sow production capacity in the third quarter is in an increasing cycle, with a risk of delayed supply [2]