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化工日报:延迟货物集中到港,本周主港累库-20250808
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,396 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.41% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,475 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.40% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 73 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 7 yuan/ton). Due to the concentrated arrival of delayed goods affected by the typhoon last week, the main ports accumulated inventory this week, causing the price center of ethylene glycol to oscillate downward and the basis to weaken [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$46/ton (a month-on-month increase of $2/ton), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 8 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 486,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 59,000 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the East China main port this week was 138,000 tons. With concentrated arrival plans at the secondary ports, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port area according to the Longzhong caliber was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from Monday and an increase of 58,500 tons from last Thursday [2]. - On the supply side, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production in China has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants on the non-coal side have plans or actions to switch from EO to EG, with an overall load that is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and ideally, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the terminal in July, significantly alleviating the inventory pressure of filament. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels at the beginning of August, with a slight inventory accumulation in the balance sheet. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable at a low level with a slight increase in August [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,396 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.41% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,475 yuan/ton (a change of -18 yuan/ton or -0.40% from the previous trading day). The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 73 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 7 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$46/ton (a month-on-month increase of $2/ton), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 8 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the text. Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis provided in the text. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the East China main port was 486,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 59,000 tons). The total planned arrival volume at the East China main port this week was 138,000 tons. With concentrated arrival plans at the secondary ports, the total inventory of MEG at the East China main port area according to the Longzhong caliber was 485,700 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons from Monday and an increase of 58,500 tons from last Thursday [2].
广发期货日评-20250807
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 07:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].
中辉期货日刊-20250807
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 05:09
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, asphalt [1][2] - **Cautiously Bearish**: LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, caustic soda, methanol, propylene [1][2] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Soda ash, urea [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, putting pressure on oil prices. Pay attention to the key support level of $60 [1]. - **LPG**: Cost drag vs. high basis, with the downside support for liquefied gas strengthening [1]. - **L**: Cost support weakens, and a cautious bearish stance is recommended [14]. - **PP**: Commercial total inventory continues to accumulate, and there is still pressure to destock [24]. - **PVC**: Cost support improves, but the fundamentals are weak, and a rebound is expected to be followed by a bearish trend [30]. - **PX**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors, so a cautious bearish view is held [33]. - **PTA**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors, so a cautious bearish stance is recommended [37]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the macro - sentiment has subsided, and a cautious bearish view is taken [41]. - **Glass**: Spot quotes are lowered, and the futures price continues to correct [45]. - **Soda ash**: Inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and attention should be paid to the suppression of the 10 - day moving average [50]. - **Caustic soda**: The subsidy for liquid chlorine has narrowed, and the futures price center has moved down [54]. - **Methanol**: The expectation of a tight balance between supply and demand has eased, and crude oil is oscillating weakly, so a cautious bearish view is recommended [59]. - **Urea**: The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose, but there may be speculation about urea exports during the period of macro - policy vacuum [2]. - **Asphalt**: There is room for cost - end oil prices to compress, and the raw material supply is sufficient, so a bearish view is taken [2]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices have increased, and the basis has strengthened, but the downstream demand is insufficient, so a cautious bearish stance is recommended [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.24%, Brent down 1.11%, and SC down 0.96% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September. The pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually being released, and the oil price center still has room to decline [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, due to the substitution of new energy and OPEC's expansion of production, supply is gradually becoming excessive. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. In the short - term, the trend is weak below the 20 - day moving average, but the support below is gradually rising. Consider taking profits on short positions and then waiting and watching. SC should be monitored in the range of [490 - 505] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 6, the PG main contract closed at 3,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price has declined, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the August CP contract price. The cost is the main drag on liquefied gas, while the basis is at a high level [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of liquefied gas to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, and the valuation is neutral. In the short - term, the RSI data is in the oversold range, and the downside support is strengthening, so there may be a short - term rebound. Consider taking profits on short positions and then lightly opening long positions. PG should be monitored in the range of [3750 - 3850] [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,321 yuan/ton, and the North China basis was - 121 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has weakened, spot prices have continuously declined, the basis has weakened, and social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks. Recently, most plants have restarted, increasing supply pressure, and downstream restocking demand during the off - season is insufficient [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Commercial total inventory continues to accumulate, domestic demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season, and downstream restocking demand is insufficient. Although there are many short - term upstream maintenance activities, the production capacity release pressure in the third quarter is high [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread long strategy [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,042 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,773 [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The price of calcium carbide has continuously increased, and coking coal has returned to a bullish trend, improving cost support. However, there are few maintenance plans in August, new production capacity is being released, and it is the off - season for both domestic and international demand, with weakened export support. Social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand pattern in August is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In August, the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory. Wait for the rebound and then take a bearish position [31]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: There are few changes in domestic and overseas plants. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but PX inventory is still relatively high. PXN is not low, and the basis has weakened. There is no macro - bullish news recently, and the sentiment in the commodity market has declined [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions and look for short - selling opportunities. At the same time, sell call options. PX should be monitored in the range of [6700 - 6830] [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Some plants have shut down or reduced production, and the start - up rate has declined. The demand side is generally weak, and the start - up rates of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are weakening. The supply - demand tight - balance expectation for PTA in August has eased, and there is no unexpected bullish news from domestic and international macro factors recently [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions and look for short - selling opportunities. At the same time, sell call options. TA should be monitored in the range of [4660 - 4740] [40]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas ethylene glycol plants have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly weakening, and terminal demand is in the traditional off - season. The supply - demand is in a tight balance from July to August, and the inventory is generally low [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions cautiously and sell call options. EG should be monitored in the range of [4390 - 4450] [44]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes have been lowered, the futures price is showing differentiation, the Hubei basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [47]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro level, there is no unexpected incremental policy for real estate in the Politburo meeting, and the official manufacturing PMI in July decreased by 0.4 percentage points month - on - month and is below the boom - bust line. The market risk appetite has declined, and the sentiment in the commodity market has been dampened. As the delivery month approaches, the market focus has shifted from expectations to fundamentals [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG2509 should be monitored in the range of [1050, 1100] [49]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot quotes of heavy soda ash are showing differentiation, the futures price is rising and falling unevenly, the basis has widened, the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged, and the number of valid forecasts has increased [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The hype about macro - policies has cooled down. Recently, soda ash enterprises have been undergoing maintenance and restarts, resulting in a slight reduction in overall production. The weekly supply of soda ash has decreased, and the demand side mostly continues to take delivery based on rigid demand. The inventory of soda ash plants has ended three weeks of destocking and is still at a historically high level [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be patient and wait for the correction to end. Temporarily wait and watch or take a cautious bearish stance [52]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot quotes of liquid caustic soda are stable, the futures price has declined, the basis has widened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased [56]. - **Basic Logic**: On the supply side, summer plant maintenance has led to a decline in industry start - up. Some downstream alumina plants have resumed production, and the production of alumina has gradually increased. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remains stable, the price of caustic soda has slightly decreased, the weekly average price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the production profit has increased. The supply and demand of caustic soda are balanced, and the inventory is high compared to the same period [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy is recommended in the text [58]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract of methanol closed at 2,393 yuan/ton [59]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol plants under maintenance have resumed production, and the start - up load of overseas methanol plants remains high, increasing the expected supply pressure. The expected demand has weakened, and the social inventory is accumulating, but it is still relatively low overall. The basis and the 9 - 1 spread have weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions at high prices for the 09 contract and sell call options. Look for low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. Hold the MA9 - 1 reverse spread. MA should be monitored in the range of [2365 - 2410] [2]. Urea - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic supply of urea is expected to increase, and the demand is generally weak. However, there may be speculation about urea exports during the period of macro - policy vacuum. The valuation of urea is not high, and coal prices are capped and supported under the background of the "export quota system" and "peak - summer power consumption" [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities for UR601. At the same time, sell put options. UR should be monitored in the range of [1750 - 1790] [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: There is room for cost - end oil prices to compress, and the raw material supply for asphalt is sufficient. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The current cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is high [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly open short positions. BU should be monitored in the range of [3500 - 3600] [2]. Propylene - **Market Review**: No specific market review content is provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices have increased, and the basis has strengthened. However, the cost support for PDH has weakened, the upstream start - up rate has marginally weakened, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the factory inventory has been accumulating for 4 consecutive weeks and is at a high level compared to the same period [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or hold the 1 - 2 calendar spread reverse strategy. PL should be monitored in the range of [6350 - 6550] [2].
综合晨报-20250807
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:34
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has significantly subsided, and the market may shift to a weaker trend dominated by pessimistic supply - demand fundamentals. For precious metals, maintain a buy - on - dip strategy during the oscillation. Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly [2][3] - The stock market shows a certain sector rotation, and it is advisable to increase allocations in technology - growth and low - position consumption sectors. The bond market is in a state of shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the entry timing of curve steepening [49][50] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent's October contract down 1.06%. The actual implementation of US sanctions on Russia may be less than expected, and the post - peak season supply - demand outlook is relatively loose. The market may turn to a weaker trend [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and the high - sulfur resources are relatively supported. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils may shrink [22] - **Asphalt**: The August production plan is lower than that in July, but actual production may exceed expectations. Supply increase space is neutral, demand is weak but has repair expectations, and low inventory supports prices [23][24] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP has been significantly reduced, but the spot discount has shrunk. Supply is relatively loose, and the price is in a weak oscillation [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals oscillated. Due to concerns about the Fed's independence, the US economic outlook, and rising interest - rate cut expectations, the US dollar remained weak, and gold tested the upper - limit resistance of the three - month range. Maintain a buy - on - dip strategy [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated around the MA60 moving average. There is no obvious market trend. LME copper may decline to $9500, and short positions are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Aluminum ingots have been accumulating inventory for two weeks, but aluminum rod production has rebounded. The price is in short - term oscillation with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The black market's short - selling atmosphere is insufficient. Shanghai zinc may have a phased rebound, but fundamentally, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel is in the late stage of a rebound. It is recommended to actively enter short positions [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin retraced its gains. It is expected to be in an oscillating market, and high - position short positions should be closed [11] - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Their prices have risen significantly. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [19][20] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Their prices are affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, with large short - term volatilities. Coke is bullish in the short term, and the downside space for coking coal is relatively small [17][18] - **Ferroalloys and Related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum supply is tight, and it has certain resilience compared to aluminum prices [6] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory is increasing, and the market is in surplus. The price is under pressure but has limited downside space [7] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market's bullish sentiment has cooled. Short - term supply and demand are loose, and the focus is on export policy changes [26] - **Methanol**: The coastal olefin开工 is not high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. In the short term, the market is weak, while in the long term, attention should be paid to the peak season demand [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The price has rebounded slightly. There is an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct monthly - spread band trading [28] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The expected output of a new device may have a negative impact. The supply - demand fundamentals provide weak support [29] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene demand is boosted, and supply is reduced, supporting the price. Polyethylene has an expected increase in short - term output, and the supply - demand is increasing. Polypropylene has stable prices, but downstream demand is weak [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating, with cost support increasing and supply rising. Caustic soda is oscillating weakly, and the long - term supply pressure is high [30] - **PX & PTA**: They rebounded due to device production reduction. If PTA production cuts increase, PX demand may decline. Attention should be paid to PTA's valuation repair [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rebounded, and there is an expectation of increased demand in the future [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are oscillating weakly, and domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level. Before the tariff issue is clear, the market is in oscillation [37] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Maintain a buy - on - dip strategy. There are uncertainties in soybean oil supply, and palm oil may enter a production - reduction cycle [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is under short - term pressure. The rapeseed market is in short - term oscillation [39] - **Soybean No.1**: There will be a policy - based auction of domestic soybeans. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is narrowing [40] - **Corn**: US corn prices are falling, and domestic corn futures are running weakly. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest for new - season corn [41] - **Hogs**: The spot price is weak, and the output in the fourth quarter is expected to increase [42] - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures market suggests a reverse - spread strategy [43] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton demand is weak. The new - season Xinjiang cotton has a strong production - increase expectation [44] - **Sugar**: US sugar is trending downward, and the domestic sugar market is expected to be in oscillation [45] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the price of early - maturing apples and new - season production estimates [46] Others - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is accelerating its decline, and market pessimism may intensify [21] - **Stock Index**: The stock market shows an incremental upward trend, with small - and micro - cap stocks leading the rise. It is advisable to increase allocations in technology - growth and low - position consumption sectors [49] - **Bond**: The bond market is in shock consolidation, and attention should be paid to the entry timing of curve steepening [50]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:EB跨期反弹,关注下游旺季前备货持续性-20250806
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory has slightly decreased without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but the开工 rates of CPL and styrene have declined, and there is still some finished - product inventory pressure on the downstream, with the开工 rate of phenol - acetone also dropping. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China will impact the market, and BZ processing fees will continue to consolidate at a low level. For styrene, the port inventory peaked and declined in the first week, the port basis rebounded slightly from the bottom, and the futures 09 - 10 inter - period spread has rebounded. The downstream pick - up volume has increased, indicating the emergence of speculative demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. However, there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS, the production profit is average, and the sustainability of stockpiling is questionable, while the styrene 开工 rate remains high [3] Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 195 yuan/ton (+10), and the spot - M2 spread is - 65 yuan/ton (+0). For the inter - period spread, relevant data is not further elaborated in terms of specific trading strategies in this part [1] - Styrene: The main basis is 18 yuan/ton (+4), and the futures 09 - 10 inter - period spread has rebounded [1][3] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 165 dollars/ton (+12 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 153 dollars/ton (+13 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 69.7 dollars/ton (+3.0 dollars/ton) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 238 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] III. Inventory and 开工 Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.30 tons (- 0.70 tons), and the 开工 rate situation is not specifically mentioned [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 159,000 tons (- 5,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 66,500 tons (- 1,000 tons), and it is in the inventory reconstruction stage. The 开工 rate is 78.9% (+0.1%) [1] IV. 开工 and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 223 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 54.25% (- 0.95%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 27 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 53.30% (+1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 139 yuan/ton (- 14 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 65.90% (- 0.92%). The downstream 开工 is at a seasonal low [2] V. 开工 and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1535 yuan/ton (+60), and the 开工 rate is 90.21% (- 0.69%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 647 yuan/ton (- 87), and the 开工 rate is 73.00% (- 5.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (- 47), and the 开工 rate is 73.94% (+0.28%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1373 yuan/ton (- 41), and the 开工 rate is 64.80% (+0.00%) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: For the near - month BZ paper - cargo - distal BZ2603 spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high; for the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high; for the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high [4] - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4]
芳烃橡胶早报-20250806
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 03:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the start - up is expected to gradually stabilize and have upward flexibility. Investors can focus on opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, in the short term, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The pattern is good and the profit is not low. In the long - term, there is an inventory accumulation expectation due to overseas device restart and increased coal - based load. It should be viewed with wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite devices [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of polyester yarn is reduced, the downstream start - up may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fee on the disk is still in a low range, investors can focus on opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable with a not - high absolute level but no seasonal reduction, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased from $73.2 to $67.6, the PTA internal - market spot price decreased from 4860 to 4660, and the PTA processing margin changed from 119 to 75 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Yisheng New Materials increased the load of its 7.2 - million - ton device; Taihua plans to overhaul a 1.5 - million - ton device and restart a 1.2 - million - ton device [2]. - **Market Situation**: The load of proximal TA existing devices decreased significantly while new devices started production. The polyester load declined slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis was weak, and the spot processing fee decreased again. The domestic start - up of PX increased slightly, there were some overseas accidents, the PXN weakened significantly, the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization declined, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia continued to shrink [3]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the MEG external - market price decreased from 531 to 523, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 712 to 489 [3]. - **Device Changes**: The 300,000 - ton device in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, restarted [3]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up of domestic coal - based MEG decreased slightly. Affected by the weather, both the port arrival and提货 decreased significantly during the week, the port inventory decreased slightly, the downstream stocking level decreased significantly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the profit declined from a high level [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6665 to 6550, and the short - fiber profit increased from - 23 to 56 [3]. - **Device Changes**: The small - line of Xianglu stopped for maintenance, and the start - up decreased slightly to 90.3% [3]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up of the polyester yarn end remained stable, the raw - material stocking decreased, the finished - product inventory decreased, and the profit declined [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 1780 to 1760, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14545 to 14145 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded, and rainfall affected tapping [3]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 767 to 750, and the styrene domestic profit changed from - 162 to - 182 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The price of related products such as styrene, PS, and ABS changed slightly, and the profit of some products also changed slightly [6].
低油价有助于俄乌和谈,煤炭和原油再次分化
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 03:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Low oil prices may facilitate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and there is a divergence between coal and crude oil. The supply of chemical products is increasing, and there will be a divergence between oil - based and coal - based chemical industries [2][3]. - Geopolitical expectations for crude oil are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. The high valuation of asphalt will eventually decline. High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices weaken following crude oil. Methanol fluctuates with the rebound of the coal end. Urea's futures price rises firmly due to the better - than - expected Indian tender. Ethylene glycol rebounds first due to strong coal and weak oil. PX maintains a volatile state. PTA's cost has no strong support, and its basis and processing fees are continuously compressed. Short - fiber is relatively resistant to price drops. The processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips is slightly repaired. PP fluctuates with the divergence of oil and coal support. Propylene fluctuates, and PL is short - term volatile and weak. Plastic fluctuates with a slight boost from the coal end. Pure benzene has a narrow - range fluctuation. Styrene fluctuates weakly with increasing inventory. PVC fluctuates mainly with strong expectations but weak reality. Caustic soda fluctuates weakly with increasing spot pressure [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: Overnight oil prices closed down. Russia is considering an air cease - fire, and Trump continues to threaten India with tariffs. The geopolitical situation has both positive and negative developments. The API data shows that US crude oil and diesel inventories continued to rise last week, and the high - operating rate of refineries is expected to be limited in the future. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility, focusing on the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The spot pressure increases, and the high valuation of asphalt finally declines. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the market may refocus on the negative impacts of tariff increases and OPEC+ production increases. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north and weaker in the south, and the sales pressure is rising. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined but is still at a high level, driving the refinery operating rate to return. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The conflicts in Russia - Ukraine, Palestine - Israel, and the US - Iran relations are expected to ease in the medium - to - long term. China has increased the import tariff on fuel oil, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased. The high - sulfur fuel oil is in a situation of oversupply. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will fluctuate weakly [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices weaken following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakness of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has risen recently, low - sulfur fuel oil is facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is increasing, which is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited demand space for high - sulfur substitution. It currently has a low valuation and fluctuates with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and its own supply - demand changes are limited, maintaining a volatile state. - **Main Logic**: The raw material price performance is poor, and the cost support is insufficient. The supply - demand situation of PX itself has few changes, and the direct demand has some support after the commissioning of new devices. - **Outlook**: Volatility [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: There is no strong cost support, and supply - demand is under pressure. The basis and processing fees are continuously compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the support is insufficient. The supply side has both shutdown and restart situations, and the overall supply has no obvious contraction. The demand side has mediocre sales of polyester yarns, and suppliers' active sales have pushed down the basis. - **Outlook**: Volatility, focusing on the implementation of major plant overhauls at the beginning of August [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: The driving force is insufficient, and pure benzene fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment has declined, but there is still some support from the parade expectation. The crude oil price has fluctuated. Recently, there have been concentrated commissionings of pure benzene upstream and downstream devices, and the commissioning rhythm has a great impact on the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: During the consumption peak season and with sanctions risks, crude oil is temporarily stable in the short term. In August, the supply of pure benzene increases, but there are new downstream commissionings, and the balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory reduction [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Last week, the macro - sentiment was good, and there was some restocking in the styrene downstream. This week, the restocking sustainability is insufficient, and the support for styrene is weakened. In addition, the supply of styrene itself has recovered, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the new home appliance production schedule data is still average. - **Outlook**: Recently, due to weather reasons, the port arrivals have decreased, and the downward driving force has weakened. The cost - end pure benzene is stable or slightly stronger, but the driving force for styrene is also limited. Overall, the styrene price may fluctuate slightly weakly [16]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: With strong coal and weak oil, ethylene glycol rebounds first. - **Main Logic**: The cost end has certain support with weak oil and strong coal. Ethylene glycol stabilizes first and rebounds following the coal - chemical industry after hitting the bottom. The overall supply - demand variables are few. The shutdown of a South China plant delays the inventory accumulation expectation. - **Outlook**: The price fluctuates within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [17]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The cost trend is differentiated, and the price is relatively resistant to drops. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost support is still poor. In the pattern of strong coal and weak oil, it is more resistant to drops than upstream PTA. The short - term processing fee support is relatively strong. The supply - demand pattern has few variables, and the sales performance is mediocre. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee shows a weak - stable trend, and there is a medium - to - long - term inventory accumulation expectation. The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.11 Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - **View**: The production reduction scale continues, and the processing fee is slightly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The raw material support is insufficient, and the oil and coal trends are differentiated. With the production reduction on the supply side, the overall decline is less than that of the upstream cost, and the processing fee is repaired. - **Outlook**: The processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips has support at the bottom, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [19]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The rebound of the coal end has some driving effects, and methanol fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the methanol futures price rebounded slightly, driven by the short - term coal end. The production enterprises sold at a discount, and the downstream purchased on demand. The olefin demand followed up normally, and other demands were relatively stable. The port inventory increased. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [22]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: The Indian tender exceeds expectations, and exports may change. The futures price rises firmly. - **Main Logic**: The Indian tender information on August 4 exceeded expectations, which had a positive impact on the market sentiment for exports. The futures trading volume increased, and the price rose. However, the subsequent market still depends on the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals. - **Outlook**: After the price increase, the market needs actual positive support. Without obvious changes in the fundamentals, attention should be paid to export - related policy information and possible further changes in the current Indian tender before August 8 [23]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: The coal end has a slight boost, and LLDPE fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the LLDPE futures price rebounded slightly. The oil price is in short - term volatile decline, and the supply pressure from OPEC+ production increase makes the crude oil inventory not decline seasonally in the past two months. The macro - end is slightly warmer in the short term, and the coal end still has positive news. The LLDPE's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. - **Outlook**: The short - term oil price decline and the short - term slight boost from the coal end make the LLDPE 09 contract fluctuate in the short term [25]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The support from oil and coal is still differentiated, and PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: On August 4, the PP futures price rebounded slightly. The coal end has a short - term boost, and the oil price is in short - term volatile decline. The supply side of PP is still increasing, and the demand side is weak. The overseas price is stable, and the export window is limited. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [26]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and PL is short - term volatile. - **Main Logic**: On August 5, the PL futures price fluctuated. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer price continued to rise slightly. The downstream factories followed up as needed. The short - term market follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol, and the coal end rebound has a boost today. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility [27]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Strong expectations but weak reality, PVC fluctuates mainly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the strict inspection of coking coal over - production has raised the expectation of supply disturbances, and the sentiment is optimistic. At the micro level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost is expected to rise. The upstream production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, the export has improved, and the cost is expected to move up. - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates with strong expectations but weak reality [29]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The spot pressure is gradually increasing, and caustic soda fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the strict inspection of coking coal over - production has raised the expectation of supply disturbances, and the sentiment is optimistic. At the fundamental level, the demand from some areas has increased marginally, but the inventory pressure of 50% caustic soda is increasing, and the upstream may switch to producing 32% caustic soda. - **Outlook**: The near - month warehouse receipt pressure is large, and there are negative factors such as the loosening of the spot price. The market has a large downward pressure, and attention should be paid to whether the upstream reduces production due to low profits, the downstream peak - season performance, and policy - related disturbances [30]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Inter - Period Spread - The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., including their latest values and change values [31]. 3.2.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32]. 3.2.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The report provides the inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., including their latest values and change values [33].
综合晨报-20250806
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 02:19
gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年08月06日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价继续回落,布伦特10合约跌1.46%,OPEC+9月增产决策及近期美国表现不佳的经济数 据仍令市场承压。昨日特朗普表示将在未来24小时大幅提升对印度进口关税以制裁其购买俄油的行 为,临近8月12日到期日中美对等关税延期的问题亦未最终落地,关注俄油制裁引发的油价上行风 险。上周美国API原油库存超预期下降423.3万桶,关注今晚EIA库存表现。 【责金属】 隔夜美国公布7月非制造业PMI从50.8下滑至50.1低于预期的51.5。美联储独立性问题、美国经济前 景担忧以及降息预期升温令美元维持偏弱趋势,国际金价再度测试近三个月以来运行区间高位阻 力。美国经济的不断验证可能令市场情绪存在反复,贵金属震荡趋势中维持回调买入思路。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走跌到MA60日均线下方,一方面伦铜库存单日大增,另一方面特朗普言论,尤其ISM服务 业指数零增长,再次凸显美国经济增长压力,铜价收跌。不过市场仍在评估Codelco地下矿场事故 可能对年度生产目标的影响,下半年供损率有提升风险。伦铜可能震荡下调到9500美元,空单持 有。 ...
纯苯苯乙烯日报:EB未延续累库,基差反弹-20250805
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 05:18
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory decreased slightly without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but the开工 of CPL and styrene has declined, and there is still some pressure on finished product inventory in the downstream, with the开工 of phenol - ketone also dropping. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China will impact the market, and BZ processing fees will continue to consolidate at a low level. For styrene, port inventory peaked and declined in the first week, port basis rebounded, and downstream提货 volume increased, indicating the emergence of speculative demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Domestic EB开工 remains high, and there is still pressure for inventory accumulation, especially as the开工 of downstream PS and ABS is still low. The recommended strategies are to remain on the sidelines for both pure benzene and styrene in the single - side trading. For basis and inter - period trading, short the spread between near - month BZ paper cargo and distant - month BZ2603 when the spread is high, short the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread when it is high, and short the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread when it is high. For cross - product trading, short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 205 yuan/ton (- 15). The spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 65 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - month and third - month contracts of pure benzene is also presented in the report [1][11] - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 14 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - month and third - month contracts of styrene is also included in the analysis [1][17] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 153 dollars/ton (+ 0 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 140 dollars/ton (+ 2 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea price difference is 66.8 dollars/ton (- 7.1 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid are - 1595 yuan/ton (+ 0), - 560 yuan/ton (+ 51), - 160 yuan/ton (- 47), and - 1332 yuan/ton (+ 7) respectively [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 243 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 16.30 million tons (- 0.70 million tons), and the operating rate data of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 90.21% (- 0.69%), 73.00% (- 5.00%), 73.94% (+ 0.28%), and 64.80% (+ 0.00%) respectively [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 159,000 tons (- 5,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 66,500 tons (- 1,000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.9% (+ 0.1%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 218 yuan/ton (- 55 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 54.25% (- 0.95%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 32 yuan/ton (+ 15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 53.30% (+ 1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 152 yuan/ton (- 173 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 65.90% (- 0.92%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The operating rate is 90.21% (- 0.69%), and the production profit is - 1595 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Phenol - ketone: The operating rate is 73.00% (- 5.00%), and the production profit is - 560 yuan/ton (+ 51) [1] - Aniline: The operating rate is 73.94% (+ 0.28%), and the production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (- 47) [1] - Adipic acid: The operating rate is 64.80% (+ 0.00%), and the production profit is - 1332 yuan/ton (+ 7) [1]
国际油价上涨,环氧丙烷、纯MDI价格上涨 | 投研报告
中银证券近日发布化工行业周报:本周(07.28-08.03)均价跟踪的100个化工品种中, 共有39个品种价格上涨,31个品种价格下跌,30个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中33%的产品 月均价环比上涨,60%的产品月均价环比下跌,另外7%产品价格持平。本周(07.28-08.03) 国际油价小幅上涨,WTI原油期货价格收于67.30美元/桶,收盘价周涨幅3.33%;布伦特原油 期货价格收于69.67美元/桶,收盘价周涨幅1.80%。 以下为研究报告摘要: 行业动态 本周(07.28-08.03)均价跟踪的100个化工品种中,共有39个品种价格上涨,31个品种 价格下跌,30个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中33%的产品月均价环比上涨,60%的产品月均 价环比下跌,另外7%产品价格持平。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是环氧氯丙烷(华东)、 液氨(河北新化)、轻质纯碱(华东)、软泡聚醚(华东散水)、石脑油(新加坡);周均 价跌幅居前的品种分别是NYMEX天然气、天然橡胶(上海)、DMF(华东)、醋酸乙烯 (华东)、顺丁橡胶(华东)。 本周(07.28-08.03)国际油价小幅上涨,WTI原油期货价格收于67.30美元/桶,收盘价 ...