Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is rising, which is likely to boost gold prices significantly in the near future [1][9]. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at a memorial event, with market speculation about potential new leadership at the Fed [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is now at 87.4%, a significant increase from 39.6% just weeks prior [1][9]. - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest that declining inflation and a weakening labor market are contributing to the rising expectations for a rate cut, which would lower nominal and real interest rates, providing new momentum for gold prices [1]. Gold Market Performance - On December 1, the precious metals market saw a strong opening, with gold stocks leading gains in the A-share market [1]. - Spot gold prices have surged, breaking through $4,250 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 62% [12]. - The New York futures gold price also exceeded $4,290 per ounce, reflecting the same year-to-date growth [12]. Silver Market Performance - Spot silver prices have risen for six consecutive trading days, reaching $57.81 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 100% [12][15]. - The New York futures silver price is reported at $58.37 per ounce, also showing a similar year-to-date growth [12][15]. Investment Trends - There has been a significant increase in investment in silver bars and related products, with sales reportedly up over 40% year-on-year [14]. - Analysts expect continued strong inflows into gold ETFs, driven by ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [10]. Central Bank Activity - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, with a reported net purchase of 39 tons in September, a 79% increase from August, marking the highest monthly net purchase since 2025 [16]. - The ongoing buying activity from central banks is anticipated to further support gold prices [16]. Future Price Projections - Analysts from Dongfang Securities predict that gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 and possibly exceeding $5,000 per ounce in 2026 [17]. - Goldman Sachs has identified gold as a top commodity to buy, forecasting a potential rise to $4,900 per ounce later next year due to central bank purchases and declining interest rates [17].

格隆汇12月2日｜KKR支持的Musinsa公司据悉已选定花旗集团和摩根大通负责其首次公开募股(IPO)事 宜。 ...

■"夯实文化软实力 积极履责显担当" 系列专题报道 多维路径推动知行合一 谈及如何让文化从理念走向实践，陈亮重点介绍了中金公司通过制度建设、文化宣导和业务融合三大维度，将文 化理念深度融入企业经营管理全过程的探索。 在制度建设层面，中金公司着力将文化内嵌于公司治理。通过发挥企业文化建设领导小组的核心作用，将文化要 求系统性融入人力资源、风险控制、业务评审等关键制度与流程。公司修订并发布了《中金公司文化建设管理办 法》等一系列指导文件，确立了文化建设与经营管理"同谋划、同部署、同检查、同考核"的常态化机制。在年度 荣誉体系中专门设立文化践行、合规守正等奖项，树立了重文化、重实绩的鲜明导向。 "十五五"规划建议提出，要"激发全民族文化创新创造活力，繁荣发展社会主义文化"，同时明确"加快建设金融强 国""坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上"。 "在服务建设金融强国的关键时期，加强文化建设不仅是贯彻中央决策部署的必然要求，也是证券公司构筑长远优 势的战略根基，更是落实国家战略、打造国际一流投行的必由之路。"中金公司党委书记、董事长陈亮日前在接受 中国证券报记者专访时，系统阐述了中金公司以文化铸魂赋能发展的思考与实践 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese central bank's recent communication has significantly increased market expectations for a potential interest rate hike in December, following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda that suggest a decision will be made during the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Market pricing for a December rate hike surged from 20% to 80% following Ueda's remarks, indicating a strong shift in investor sentiment [1]. - The yield on Japanese government bonds has risen to recent highs, and the USD/JPY exchange rate has declined due to narrowing interest rate differentials [2]. - Bitcoin prices experienced a sharp decline, reflecting concerns over potential market volatility similar to that seen in December 2022 [2][9]. Group 2: Diverging Views on Rate Hike - Morgan Stanley has shifted its stance to view a December rate hike as the baseline scenario, citing Ueda's unusual direct mention of the upcoming meeting [3][6]. - Goldman Sachs remains cautious, suggesting that the Bank of Japan may wait for more corporate wage data before making a decision, with a January hike being more likely [3][7]. Group 3: Ueda's Statements - Ueda's comments during a meeting with business leaders highlighted the importance of gathering information on corporate wage positions ahead of the December meeting [4]. - He expressed optimism about wage growth, noting that major labor unions are targeting salary increases of 5% or more, and that corporate surveys indicate many companies plan to maintain or exceed this year's wage increases [5]. Group 4: Risks of Rate Hike - The potential for a surprise rate hike in December raises concerns about market stability, particularly given the historical context of the December 2022 market turmoil [8][9]. - The current market environment shows a disconnect between central bank communication and market expectations, heightening vulnerability to sudden policy changes [8].

格隆汇12月1日｜高盛宣布已达成协议，收购Innovator Capital Management（Innovator），Innovator是固 定收益ETF的先驱。截至2025年9月30日，Innovator管理着159只固定收益ETF中的280亿美元受托管理资 产。交易对价约20亿美元，以现金与股权组合方式支付，并设业绩达标条件。交易预计于2026年第二季 度完成，须经监管批准并满足常规交割条件。 ...

Wangdaizi(wangdaizi@sohu.com) 然而，三个关键指标敲响警钟： 第一，职位空缺持续缩水。过去一两年，美国职位空缺数缓慢但稳步下降，失业率悄然攀升。历史经验 表明，就业增长往往缓慢，而崩溃可能迅速——一旦突破某个临界点，将陷入难以逆转的恶性循环。 第二，企业裁员潮暗涌。亚马逊、Verizon等巨头宣布裁员数万人，私营部门裁员数飙升至十年新高。 高盛研究发现，裁员公告通常比实际失业救济申请提前两个月，其模型预测未来六个月失业率上升0.5 个百分点的概率达25%，较春季显著上升。 第三，消费者信心跌入谷底。通胀飙升后，消费者信心持续低迷，纽约联储调查显示，民众认为未来三 个月找到新工作的概率不足50%，甚至低于疫情期间水平。 英国《经济学人》11月30日报道，当前美国就业市场正上演"矛盾叙事"——表面强劲的劳动力数据与投 资者、政策制定者的深层焦虑形成鲜明对比。这场"冰火博弈"中，低失业率与工资增长能否抵消"K型 经济"、企业裁员潮和消费者信心崩塌的风险？ 表面繁荣：工人的"黄金时代" 近十年来，除疫情短暂冲击外，美国失业率持续徘徊在50年低位附近。更令人瞩目的是收入分配的改 善：自201 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its GDP growth forecasts for China, reflecting an optimistic outlook based on government spending and export growth, with a focus on achieving the economic goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][8]. Economic Growth Forecasts - The actual GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 4.9% to 5.0%, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased from 4.3% and 4.0% to 4.8% and 4.7% respectively, primarily due to an upward revision in export growth predictions [5][8]. - The expectation is that China's exports will grow by 5-6% annually over the next few years, outpacing global trade growth and contributing to overall economic expansion [8]. Export Growth Insights - Despite challenges such as increased tariffs from the U.S., China's actual exports are projected to achieve an annual growth rate of approximately 8%, driven by the competitiveness of Chinese products across various sectors [7][8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors, which is expected to support continued rapid growth in exports and an increase in global market share [7]. Real Estate Market Impact - The negative impact of the real estate market on GDP growth is expected to gradually diminish, with the drag on GDP growth estimated at around 2 percentage points annually for 2024 and 2025, potentially decreasing by about 0.5 percentage points each year thereafter [9]. - Recent data indicates a significant decline in new construction starts, with a 20% month-on-month drop in October, and a 30% decrease in second-hand housing prices since their peak in 2021 [9][10]. Policy Measures for Real Estate Stabilization - Potential policy measures to stabilize the real estate market include removing purchase restrictions, lowering down payment ratios, and providing subsidies for first-time homebuyers [9][11]. - Strategies to reduce excess inventory and support distressed borrowers are also suggested, including converting vacant properties for other uses and providing financial assistance to homeowners facing difficulties [10][11]. Consumer Spending Trends - There are early signs of recovery in the high-end retail market, with a shift in household savings from fixed deposits to more liquid forms, indicating an improvement in risk appetite [12]. - The process of increasing consumer spending as a share of GDP is expected to be gradual, requiring time to identify effective policy tools [12][13]. Future Policy Directions - The Chinese government is anticipated to implement more accommodative policies in the coming months, with a focus on stimulating domestic demand and addressing challenges in the real estate sector [14]. - Expected measures include a potential interest rate cut of 20 basis points and an increase in the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio from 12.0% in 2025 to 13.0% in 2026 [14].

面对可能加剧债务的担忧，邢自强提出了清晰的"开源"路径：盘活庞大的国有资产。他建议，将更多国 有资产划归社保体系，并通过市场化运营提升其收益率进行分红。邢自强强调，此举既能壮大社保资金 池，又能倒逼国有企业运营更趋市场化，形成良性循环。 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，专家学者、券商基金私募掌舵人、首席分析师等齐聚一堂，共寻穿越 周期的投资真谛。摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强就宏观经济前景与资产配置策略发表主题演讲。 在如何破解中国高储蓄、低消费结构性难题的讨论中，邢自强明确指出要完善社会保障体系，并且配套 以稳健的财政策略，其关键在于"开源"与"节流"并举，实现资源的高效再配置。 在"节流"端，他直指过去二十余年资源配置的惯性。"财政、金融和政府资源长期过度偏向供给端，尤 其是基础设施投资。"邢自强分析道，这部分投资已显现饱和迹象，投资回报正在下降。未来的转型方 向，是从"投资于物"更多地向"投资于人"倾斜，即将原本用于基础设施的部分资源，转而用于夯实社会 保险与福利网络。 邢自强将"一增一减"的财政再平衡，视为释放消费 ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Investors are cautiously optimistic about technology stocks driven by AI, while maintaining a preference for defensive sectors amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1][5] - The TMT sector is identified as the most favored investment area for 2026, despite a recent rotation towards defensive stocks [3][5] - There is a notable shift in investor sentiment towards the dollar, with slightly more bullish views compared to bearish ones [1][9] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Investors anticipate two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2026, with 34% expecting the federal funds rate to be between 3% and 3.25% by year-end [6][8] - There are concerns that these expectations may be overly optimistic due to recent hawkish comments from Fed officials [8] Group 3: Credit Market Insights - Over half of the respondents expect AI-related bond issuance to be substantial, estimating between $500 billion and $1 trillion [11] - Despite high issuance expectations, enthusiasm for AI concept stocks appears to be waning, with only 15% expecting increased investor interest [13] Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook - There is a strong bullish sentiment towards gold, with 69% of respondents optimistic about its price, primarily driven by central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [14][16] - Conversely, sentiment towards oil is predominantly bearish, with 52% of investors expecting a decline [14]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts a high probability (over 85%) of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve during the December 9-10 meeting, based on solid economic indicators [3][4]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021 [4]. - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 has surged to 8.5%, significantly impacting the labor income of this demographic, which constitutes over half of the U.S. labor income [4]. - There are increasing warnings of layoffs from companies, indicating a cooling labor demand, which is a critical metric for the Federal Reserve [4]. Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly, have indicated that there is room for further policy adjustments, suggesting a cautious approach to tightening [4]. Long-term Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the federal funds rate will decrease to between 3% and 3.25% by mid-2026, with additional small cuts expected in March and June of the following year [4]. - The recommended trading strategy includes shorting U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds in early 2026, anticipating growth from subsequent fiscal stimulus [4]. Market Consensus - The current market consensus is strong, indicating that the upcoming interest rate cut is almost certain, emphasizing the importance of understanding the economic logic behind the cut rather than focusing on the timing [5].