| | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | MEETING DATE 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 | | | | | 350-375 | | 375-400 400-425 425-450 | | | 2025/7/30 | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.9% | 73.1% | | 2025/9/17 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.1% | 64.9% | 12.9% | | 2025/10/29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 16.1% | 53.3% | 27.1% | 3.5% | | 2025/1 ...

Core Viewpoint - International investors are increasingly focused on Chinese assets, as evidenced by multiple foreign institutions hosting "China-themed" forums and raising GDP growth forecasts for China by 2025 [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Foreign institutions have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025 due to reduced external disturbances and enhanced domestic growth policies [1] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China, Xie Ziqiang, predicts a fiscal package worth 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan to support urban renewal and infrastructure [2] - Nomura's chief economist for China, Lu Ting, has also raised GDP growth predictions for 2025, citing stronger-than-expected retail data supported by the "trade-in" policy [2] Group 2: Capital Market Outlook - UBS's head of China equity strategy, Wang Zonghao, believes that foreign capital will return to the Chinese stock market in the coming quarters, with Hong Kong's IPO market raising $9 billion so far this year, a 320% increase year-on-year [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to 84 points and 4600 points, respectively, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17% [3] - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its target indices for major Chinese stock indices, reflecting ongoing structural improvements in the Chinese economy [3] Group 3: Earnings Performance - Morgan Stanley's chief Asia and China equity strategist, Liu Mingdi, noted that the MSCI China Index had a strong performance last year, with actual EPS growth reaching 16%, surpassing the initial expectation of 14% [4] - The market's consensus EPS growth expectation for the MSCI China Index this year is 8%, with leading internet companies continuing to perform well [4] - Liu Mingdi projects the MSCI China Index to reach 80 points under baseline and 89 points under optimistic scenarios this year [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Insights 1. Asia FX Volatility Strategies - Recommendations include selling USDCNH risk reversals, buying USDKRW puts, and selling USDTWD call spreads. [1][2] - Specific trades suggested: - Sell 6m USDCNH 25d RR at 0.25% and 1y USDCNH 25d RR at 0.55% [3][4] - Buy 3m USDKRW 1350 EKO at 33 bps [4] - Buy 3m USDSGD 1.24 digi put at 11.20% [4] - Sell 3m USDTWD 30.25/31.00 call spread for 46.3 bps [4] - Buy 1y 82 USDINR Digi Put at 9.2% [4] 2. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) - 30-year JGB yields have risen sharply, now above German bund yields, indicating a lack of demand for long-duration bonds [7][8][12]. - Concerns about Japan's fiscal position are growing, with calls for consumption tax cuts ahead of elections [7][8]. - The market is expected to see increased ultra-long inventories, but foreign demand remains weak [9][11]. 3. China Trade Optimism - Recent headlines suggest that US-China trade optimism may have peaked [15][19]. - G7 countries are discussing tariffs on low-value goods from China, which could negatively impact trade [16][17]. - China's response to US restrictions on Huawei chips has intensified, indicating a tougher stance [18]. 4. Taiwan Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) Implications - Taiwan's SWF aims to invest overseas to enhance government income and support national security and infrastructure [27]. - The SWF's launch is linked to Taiwan's involvement in the Alaska gas project, capped at 50% of an estimated US$44 billion investment [27]. - Potential funding sources for the SWF include government-issued bonds and fiscal surpluses [28]. 5. Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) Movements - The HKMA has noted recent strengthening of the HKD and discussed liquidity injections following the LERS trigger [32][33]. - The HKMA emphasizes that lower yields are beneficial for the Hong Kong economy, with low chances of intervention unless the HKD hits 7.85 [33]. Additional Important Insights - The CFETS index has shown volatility, reflecting US-China trade talk optimism followed by declines [26]. - The PBoC may resist large RMB appreciation to protect exporter margins and employment [20][23]. - Taiwanese exporters have been asked to limit daily USD sales, indicating central bank intervention in the FX market [29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, highlighting the current trends and potential impacts on the respective markets.

高盛突然将美联储降息预期从12月提前至9月，这个看似简单的日期调整，实则暗藏玄机。作为深耕量 化领域多年的观察者，我注意到每次这样的重大预期调整，都会引发资本市场的连锁反应。但有趣的 是，当普通投资者还在争论降息幅度时，专业机构早已完成了战略布局。详细仔细讲 一，降息预期的蝴蝶效应 高盛这份报告像块石头砸进池塘，荡起的涟漪远比表面看到的复杂。当普通投资者还在争论"9月还是12 月降息"时，真正的老手早就开始翻检历史数据——2019年美联储转向宽松前夕，A股有47%的个股在政 策落地前三个月就走出独立行情。 但诡异的是，这些股票在启动前都呈现相似特征：日均换手率不足2%、波动率压缩至历史低位、甚至 财报季也毫无亮点。就像深夜便利店的值班员，明明货架在悄悄补货，却偏要装作打瞌睡的样子。 二、机构成本的暗箱游戏 这种行为模式在量化领域被称为"沙丁鱼策略"——就像罐头厂故意延迟捕捞让鱼群挤得更密，机构通过 反复震荡把浮动筹码清洗干净。等新闻出来时，他们手里攥着的已经是打折收购的带血筹码。 PS： 上文图中的橙色柱状，是我用系统观察的「机构交易特征」数据叫做「机构库存」。 如果「机构库存」数据越活跃，那就意味着参与交易 ...

消息人士：中金公司、中信和高盛正在筹划立讯精密在香港的股票发售。 ...

Core Insights - Recent data on U.S. tariff revenue has garnered significant attention, with annualized tariff revenue reaching an astonishing $327 billion, accounting for 1.1% of GDP [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that regardless of whether the tax burden falls on producers or consumers, it will inevitably have a negative impact on economic growth [1] Tariff Revenue Trends - As of June 26, the U.S. customs net revenue reached $27.3 billion, reflecting a rapid increase in tariff revenue [1] - Tariff revenue has shown a clear upward trend, rising from $15.6 billion in April to $22.2 billion in May, and then to $27.3 billion in June [1] - The annualized tariff revenue of $327 billion is equivalent to 65% of the projected corporate income tax for 2024 and 32% of non-withheld personal income tax, indicating a substantial economic burden on individuals and businesses [1] Impact on Corporate Profitability - If companies fully absorb the tariff costs, the profit margin for U.S. non-financial companies is projected to decline from 13.8% to 11.7%, which is below the 15-year average of 12.2% [2] - Even if companies pass some or all of the tariff costs onto consumers, the negative impact on profitability cannot be entirely mitigated [2] Economic Growth Concerns - The tariffs pose a threat to overall economic growth, with Morgan Stanley emphasizing that the substantial tax revenue will not contribute positively to economic expansion [4] - Other economic indicators, such as a mere 1.7% year-on-year growth in air passenger volume as of May, suggest a slowdown in consumer activity, further intensifying economic downward pressure [4] Investment Recommendations - Given the increased economic downside risks, Morgan Stanley maintains its investment advice, suggesting a bullish stance on U.S. Treasury bonds due to potential further declines in interest rates [5] - The firm also recommends a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar, anticipating a shift towards accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [5] - Investors are advised to monitor market movements around July 9 and consider increasing long positions in U.S. Treasuries, capitalizing on the rise in yields due to tariff news [5]

Moneta外汇认为，西班牙博彩企业Cirsa近期启动的首次公开募股（IPO）引发了全球资本市场的高度关注。作为由美国私募巨头黑石集团控股的企业，Cirsa 此次在马德里证券交易所的上市动作被视为2025年西班牙市场最具看点的IPO之一。 Moneta外汇表示，根据承销商披露的信息，此次IPO已于7月3日正式向投资者开放，并将在7月7日截止。新股将于当日分配，并计划于7月9日正式挂牌交 易。Cirsa希望此次上市实现25.2亿欧元（约合29.7亿美元）的估值目标，而发行规模预计在4.53亿至5.21亿欧元之间。 y 97 跟卓新体验 c高手的超跑 Taxi, 冲刺您的财富目标! | 招数 | 商品 | 股票CFD | 加密货币 | ETF | 债券 w.monetamarkets.com HOMETA HA eta Markets 亿汇 交易返现奖励 值得一提的是，此次IPO包含"绿鞋机制"（greenshoe option），即如果市场需求旺盛，公司可额外发行股份，这为Cirsa进一步扩大融资规模提供了灵活性。 此外，本轮发行还包括部分现有股东的股份转让，体现出公司及投资方对资本结构的积极调整态度。 本次承 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming US June employment report is expected to be a critical turning point for the US dollar's trajectory, with potential implications for monetary policy expectations [1] - The foreign exchange market is undergoing significant changes, with traditional macroeconomic data becoming the primary driver of currency fluctuations, overshadowing geopolitical tensions and domestic fiscal policy disputes [1] - A decline in risk aversion has led to downward pressure on US short-term Treasury yields, further diminishing the dollar's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs views the June employment report as a "stress test" for the dollar's performance, with a significant miss in expectations likely to trigger concentrated selling of the dollar [2] - If the employment data meets expectations, the market is likely to continue the trend of "moderate dollar depreciation + benefits for risk assets" [2] - This shift in the foreign exchange market narrative is moving away from being driven by geopolitical and fiscal policy factors towards being dominated by traditional economic data [2]

然而，最新证据显示，关税对消费者价格的推动作用较为有限，且通胀放缓的整体趋势更为显著。报告 中提到："关税的影响似乎仅对物价水平产生一次性冲击，而非持续性通胀压力。"这一判断促使高盛重 新评估美联储的政策节奏。 除了关税因素，美联储内部的声音也为降息预期的提前提供了支持。一些美联储公开市场委员会 （FOMC）成员的近期表态显示，只要即将公布的通胀数据不出现大幅超预期上涨，他们对9月降息持 开放态度。特别是美联储理事鲍曼的言论进一步强化了这一可能性。她表示，即便通胀数据略显坚挺， 若主要由关税效应驱动，FOMC成员可能不会过于担忧。这种态度的转变为9月降息铺平了道路。 周三（7月2日）亚市盘中，黄金期货价格上涨，最新沪金价格报775.88元/克，涨幅0.68%，今日开盘于 780.80元/克，最高上探781.00元/克，最低触及775.02元/克。 【要闻速递】 高盛经济学家Jan Hatzius及其团队在最新报告中指出，美联储下一次降息的时间窗口可能提前至9月， 而非此前预计的12月。核心原因在于，他们认为特朗普政府推行的关税政策对通胀的冲击远没有预想中 剧烈。此前，高盛曾担忧夏季关税可能推高月度通胀数据，从 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs believes the "Goldilocks" market is returning, driven by dovish expectations and reduced risks [1] - The macro environment is characterized by moderate economic growth and inflation, allowing central banks to maintain accommodative policies [1][5] - Despite recent macro data underperforming expectations, the market's focus has shifted towards the benefits of easing expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Macro risks are diminishing, and earnings expectations are improving, with a positive consensus on earnings per share (EPS) revisions in the past month [2] - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is crucial for validating market optimism, with expectations for a 4% EPS growth, significantly lower than Q1's 12% [2] - The implied correlation of stocks has been declining since April, indicating expectations for differentiated performance among individual stocks during earnings season [2] Group 3 - Labor market data to be released this Thursday is critical for maintaining the current positive momentum [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts non-farm payrolls at 85,000, below the market consensus of 113,000, which could reinforce easing expectations if the data disappoints [3] - The firm recommends investors adopt options hedging strategies and diversify their regional and style allocations during the summer [3][6] Group 4 - Dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve have increased, with Goldman Sachs moving its next rate cut prediction to September and lowering the terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25% [5] - Geopolitical risks have decreased, particularly with easing tensions in the Middle East, which lowers the market's geopolitical risk premium [5] - Progress in U.S. trade negotiations, including the cancellation of "section 899," supports growth prospects [5] Group 5 - Recommendations for hedging against inflation include purchasing put options on U.S. high-yield bonds or credit default swaps (CDS) [6] - To hedge against a potential re-inflation rebound, the purchase of payer positions in interest rate swaps is advised [6] - Additional strategies include buying call options on European banking stocks and emerging market equities to mitigate reversal risks [6]