1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The market's concern about the end - of - month inventory growth will support the market. The futures of crude palm oil may start an upward trend. It is recommended to go long on dips. - Soybean oil: The digestion of the US biodiesel policy has ended. The domestic spot trading is light, but the market sentiment may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - The US soybean remains in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - The pig spot market is weak. The short - term pig price is not optimistic, with the near - month contract facing strong resistance. It is not advisable to short the far - month contract blindly [4]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market is not active, with the futures oscillating. In the long run, the supply may be tight in the third quarter and loose in the fourth quarter [6]. Sugar Industry - Internationally, the raw sugar price may bottom out, but the overall trend is bearish. Domestically, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, with the futures expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. Egg Industry - The egg demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price in some regions may decline next week, but the spot price still has some upward potential [11]. Cotton Industry - The short - term domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and the price may face pressure after the new cotton is launched [14]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On July 28 - 29, the spot and futures prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, with the basis and spreads also fluctuating. - **Inventory and Market Outlook**: Palm oil inventory concerns support the market, and soybean oil may improve in August [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed, with the spreads such as the inter - period spreads and oil - meal ratios also showing fluctuations. - **Market Situation**: The US soybean is at the bottom, and the domestic supply and demand situation affects the meal market [2]. Livestock (Pig) Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of pigs changed, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and slaughter volume. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term pig price is not optimistic, and the far - month contract needs cautious operation [4]. Corn Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of corn and corn starch futures and spot, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term market is inactive, and the long - term supply - demand situation varies [6]. Sugar Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of sugar, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The international raw sugar is bearish, and the domestic supply - demand is marginally loose [8]. Egg Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The prices of eggs, egg - related products, and indicators such as the basis, spreads, and production costs changed. - **Market Outlook**: The demand may fluctuate, and the price may decline and then rise [11]. Cotton Industry - **Prices and Indicators**: The futures and spot prices of cotton, along with indicators such as the basis, spreads, and inventory, changed. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term price oscillates, and the long - term price may face pressure [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the high price of oils and fats will correct. One can consider buying on dips after the correction. For YP09, a short - term rebound is possible, and one can consider shorting the spread after the rebound. For P15, one can consider widening the spread after the correction. In the options market, one can consider selling put options or buying call options after the correction [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On July 29, 2025, for soybeans, the 2509 closing price was 8226 with a rise of 106. In different regions, spot prices varied, and the basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin was 200, 150, and 110 respectively. For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 8970 with a rise of 24, and the basis also differed by region. For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 9492 with a rise of 86, and the basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi also had their own values [3]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread of soybeans was 38 with a fall of 6, that of palm oil was 2 with a fall of 12, and that of rapeseed oil was 50 with a rise of 1 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The 09 contract of Y - P was (744) with a fall of 20, OI - Y was 1266, and OI - P was 522 with a rise of 62. The oil - meal ratio was 2.76 with a rise of 0.04 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil's盘面 profit from Malaysia and Indonesia was (111), and the 盘面 profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was (869) [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 29th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybeans was 59.1 million tons, that of palm oil was 61.6 million tons, and that of rapeseed oil was 67.3 million tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: If the Indonesian government implements the B50 biofuel regulation, domestic palm oil consumption demand is expected to increase by 3 million tons, equivalent to 6.2% of the country's 2024 crude palm oil production of 48.2 million tons. The implementation of this regulation is expected to support palm oil prices in 2026, offsetting the negative impact of the US import tariff increase. Starting from August 1, 2025, the US will impose an additional 19% and 25% import tariffs on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively [5]. - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of July 25, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 615,500 tons, a 4.08% increase from the previous week. The origin quotation decreased, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable. With the arrival of palm oil and inventory accumulation, the upward movement of the futures price was suppressed. One can consider buying on dips [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: On the day, the soybean oil futures price rose by more than 1%. The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills last week was 2.2389 million tons, and the operating rate was 62.94%. As of July 25, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.0881 million tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week. The basis was stable. With a large amount of domestic soybeans arriving at ports and high - level crushing, soybean oil entered a phased inventory - accumulation period. One can consider buying on dips [7][9]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On the day, the rapeseed oil futures price slightly declined. The rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills last week was 56,000 tons, and the operating rate was 14.93%. As of July 25, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 673,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased, and the import profit inversion expanded. The spot market was inactive, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and one should continue to pay attention to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchasing and policy changes [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term, expect a correction in the high price of oils and fats, and consider buying on dips after the correction [11]. - **Arbitrage**: YP09 may rebound in the short - term, and one can consider shorting the spread after the rebound. P15 can be considered for widening the spread after the correction [11]. - **Options**: After the correction, one can consider selling put options or buying call options [12]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 8 graphs, including the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, monthly spreads of Y, P, OI, and cross - variety spreads of Y - P and OI - Y [15][18].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has made a significant concession by implementing zero tariffs and a quota system for Indonesian palm oil, potentially allowing Indonesia to capture a larger share of the European market [1] Group 1: EU Policy Changes - The EU's decision to adopt zero tariffs on Indonesian palm oil is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Indonesian products in the European market [1] - The introduction of a quota system will regulate the volume of palm oil imports, which may lead to increased market access for Indonesian producers [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The changes in EU policy could result in a shift in market dynamics, with Indonesian palm oil potentially displacing other suppliers in Europe [1] - This development may encourage Indonesian producers to increase their production capacity to meet the anticipated demand from the European market [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions 1.1 Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 8984 | 8936 | 8980 | 8828 | 8946 | -38 | -0.42% | 604377 | 449955 | -6493 | | P2601 | 8972 | 8940 | 8962 | 8814 | 8932 | -40 | -0.45% | 126478 | 172241 | -2218 | | Y2509 | 8160 | 8160 | 8160 | 8062 | 8120 | -40 | -0.49% | 281245 | 490324 | -14314 | | Y2601 | 8114 | 8104 | 8120 | 8022 | 8076 | -38 | -0.47% | 104689 | 384599 | 3856 | | OI2509 | 9441 | 9457 | 9467 | 9330 | 9406 | -35 | -0.37% | 258838 | 201338 | -9445 | | OI2601 | 9388 | 9409 | 9413 | 9280 | 9357 | -31 | -0.33% | 64240 | 111834 | 3489 | [7] 1.2 Basis Price - East China Rapeseed Oil Trader Quotes: 7 - 8 months: OI2509 + 90; 9 - 10 months: OI2509 + 140 for third - grade rapeseed oil; 7 months: OI2509 + 170; 8 months: OI2509 + 190 for first - grade rapeseed oil. - East China Soybean Oil Basis Price: Spot soybean oil: Y2509 + 90; 8 - 9 months: Y2509 + 160; 10 - 1 months: Y2601 + 230. - East China Spot 24 - degree Palm Oil: P09 + 50 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation. [7] 1.3 Oil and Fat Comments - Palm oil is undergoing high - level adjustments, mainly due to the drag of Malaysian palm oil trends and concerns about continuous growth in port inventories. From July 1 to 25, palm oil exports decreased by 9.2% - 15.2% month - on - month, leading to concerns about inventory backlog. The production increase and weak demand are pressuring palm oil prices. - Rapeseed oil is affected by both sufficient domestic supply and policies, with a weak basis. Attention should be paid to far - month ship purchases. - Soybean oil continues to trade in the range of 7800 - 8200. Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Its price is mainly determined by the cost of imported soybeans. - The basis of the three major domestic oils in the spot market has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to appropriately buy far - month basis. The oils are expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with recent rotation of varieties for speculation. Risk control should be noted. [8] 2. Industry News - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. In May, Indonesia exported 2.66 million tons of palm oil (including refined products), a nearly 50% month - on - month increase. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that from July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.24% month - on - month. Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 18.95% month - on - month, while in Sabah it decreased by 0.14% month - on - month, in Sarawak it increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and in East Malaysia it increased by 0.01% month - on - month. [9] 3. Data Overview - AmSpec Agri data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from July 1 - 25, 2025, were 896,484 tons, a 15.2% decrease compared to the same period in June. ITS data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 were 1,029,585 tons, a 9.2% decrease compared to June 1 - 25. - The Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) data showed that from July 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.19% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.03% month - on - month and oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.16% month - on - month. - The European Commission data showed that as of July 20, EU's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season (starting July 1) were 519,609 tons, a 32% year - on - year decrease. As of July 20, EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for oils and fats is that prices may correct from high levels, and investors can consider buying on dips after the correction. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, after the correction, selling put options or buying call options can be considered [10][11][12] Summary by Section 1. Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On July 24, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2509 was 8166, up 92; palm oil 2509 was 9104, up 110; and rapeseed oil 2509 was 9492, up 36. The basis for different regions and varieties showed various trends, with some remaining stable and some having small changes [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread for soybean oil was 52, up 8; for palm oil it was 44, up 24; and for rapeseed oil it was 53, unchanged [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 938, down 18; the OI - Y spread was 1326; the OI - P spread was 388, down 74; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70, up 0.09 [3] - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a盘面 profit of - 114, and CNF price was 1065. The FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil was 1043, with a盘面 profit of - 895 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 29th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 59.1 million tons (compared to 56.3 million tons last week and 109.2 million tons last year); palm oil inventory was 50.7 million tons; rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons (compared to 70.6 million tons last week and 42.9 million tons last year) [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, the same as last month's forecast and higher than last year's 50.7 bushels per acre. The USDA also predicted the 2025/26 US soybean production at 4.335 billion bushels, lower than last month's forecast and last year's production [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: On July 24, 2025, palm oil futures prices rose more than 1%. As of July 18, 2025 (the 29th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.14 million tons, a 5.04% increase from last week. The origin's quotes were stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There was a rumor of one ship purchase. The spot market was stable, and investors can consider buying on dips due to the potential for inventory build - up and the positive macro - environment [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: On July 24, 2025, soybean oil futures prices rose more than 1%. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2305500 tons, and the operating rate was 64.81%. As of July 18, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1091800 tons, a 4.04% increase from last week and a 2.40% increase year - on - year. The basis was stable. With a large arrival of soybeans and high crushing volume, soybean oil is in a phase of inventory build - up, but it is still showing a strong upward trend driven by the overall oil and fat market. Investors can consider buying on dips without over - chasing the high [6][8] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: On July 24, 2025, rapeseed oil futures prices rose slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59000 tons, and the operating rate was 15.72%. As of July 18, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week, still at a historical high but with a continuous marginal reduction. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil was around $1020, and the import profit inversion narrowed to around - 600. The spot market was quiet, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. Due to more policy disturbances, the single - side price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and investors should continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [8] 3. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to correct from high levels. Consider buying on dips after the correction [10] - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] - **Options**: After the correction, consider selling put options or buying call options [12] 4. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads over different time periods from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 7 月 23 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 2509收盘价 各品种地区现货价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8074 | (2) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8224 | | | | 8254 | 8194 | | 180 | 0 | 150 | 0 | 120 | -10 | | 棕榈油 | 8994 | 68 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9034 | | | | 90 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, abundant rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas of the US has cooled the weather - speculation sentiment. The upcoming China - US negotiations provide some support to the market, leading to a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. High - frequency data shows a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports since July and a month - on - month increase in production. The news of a significant increase in Indonesia's palm oil exports in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures again. Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is great uncertainty in the medium - and long - term supply of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand overall, and domestic prices mainly follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, domestic spot supply is sufficient, the weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices have continued to fluctuate within a range [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) has significantly raised the estimated 2024/25 rapeseed production to about 19.19 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 17.85 million tons. The export forecast of old - crop rapeseed has also been raised to 9.5 million tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products in May reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but 7.2% higher than last year [2] - As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3,515,877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283,900 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 814,862 tons [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has reduced weather - speculation sentiment, and the upcoming China - US negotiations support the market, causing a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased, and the news of Indonesia's export increase in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures [5] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is uncertainty in future soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern, and domestic prices follow the external market. Rapeseed oil has sufficient domestic supply, the Canadian rapeseed - growing area has good weather, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices are in a range - bound decline [5][6]

Core Insights - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month-on-month to 2.9 million tons in May, driven by a surge in exports [1] Group 1: Inventory and Production - Indonesia's palm oil inventory stood at 2.9 million tons in May, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 4.27% [1] - The production of crude palm oil in May was 4.17 million tons, which is lower than April's production of 4.48 million tons but represents a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [1] Group 2: Export Dynamics - Palm oil and refined product exports from Indonesia reached 2.66 million tons in May, marking a nearly 50% increase compared to April and a year-on-year growth of 35.64% [1] - The increase in exports was primarily driven by rising demand from India and China [1]

Variety Views - On July 22, A-share's three major indexes continued to rise, hitting new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3,581.86, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 11,099.83, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61% to 2,310.86. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.893 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4,118.96, up 33.35 [1] - On July 22, the weighted coke index remained strong, closing at 1,711.6, up 128.3. The weighted coking coal index also maintained its strength, closing at 1,084.9 yuan, up 94.5 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, with the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port at 1,270 yuan/ton. After the first price increase by coke enterprises was implemented, they quickly initiated a second one. Coke enterprises are currently at the break-even point in production. The continuous rebound of coking coal prices has put pressure on coking enterprises, so they raised the price of coke, and steel mills have a relatively high willingness to accept it. The profitability rate of steel mills is maintained at around 60%, the profit of blast furnace rebar is about 200 yuan/ton, and the reduction of crude steel production has led to a rebound in steel prices, giving some room for the rebound of raw material prices [3] - The price of prime coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi (A10, S0.45, G70) was raised by 70 yuan to the ex-factory price of 1,210 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market is running strongly. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port increased by 54 to 850 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 cleaned coal increased by 35 to 950 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the inventory of upstream coal mines has dropped to 3.3907 million tons, returning to a relatively reasonable level. Previously shut-down coal mines have gradually resumed production, especially after the price increase, the enthusiasm of coal mines for production is high [3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate that the global sugar market may face a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season due to strong monsoons increasing production in India and Thailand. Affected by this and the failure of the futures price to break through the key technical level of 17 cents, long positions were liquidated, causing the US sugar price to fall sharply on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, long positions were liquidated, causing the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract to decline on Tuesday. Due to short-selling pressure, the contract continued to decline slightly at night. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a month-on-month increase of about 70,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1,434.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7%. In June 2025, China imported a total of 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total imports were 459,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 492,400 tons [3] Rubber - Heavy rainfall in the Thai rubber-producing area has raised concerns about supply, leading to continuous increases in Southeast Asian spot prices. Affected by this, short positions were liquidated, pushing up the Shanghai rubber futures price on Tuesday. Due to the large short-term increase, the price adjusted at night. In June 2025, China's rubber tire production was 102.749 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. From January to June, the production increased by 2% year-on-year to 591.668 million pieces. In the first half of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 4.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [4][6] Palm Oil - On July 22, palm oil maintained a high-level wide-range oscillation, with the overall average price gradually increasing. The K-line closed as a positive line with a long upper shadow. The highest price of the day was 9,012, the lowest was 8,868, and it closed at 8,926, up 0.18% from the previous day. According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 to 20, 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 6.19% compared with the same period last month. United Plantations said that in the second quarter, the production of palm oil and palm kernels increased by 13.8% and 20.5% year-on-year respectively; the average price of palm oil increased by 5.6% to 4,361 Malaysian ringgit per ton [6] Shanghai Copper - The anti-involution trading in China continued, with strong long sentiment boosting the copper price. Technically, the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, and the MACD and KDJ indicators all give bullish signals, providing support for price increases. On the supply side, the strike at a copper mine in Peru has raised concerns about supply, which also supports the copper price. However, attention should be paid to the increase in bonded warehouse inventories and the uncertainty of downstream demand. If the price fails to break through the resistance level of 81,200 yuan/ton, it may face a correction risk [7] Iron Ore - On July 22, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and rose, with a gain of 2.49%, closing at 823 yuan. The shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased slightly this period, and the arrivals dropped significantly. The pig iron production stopped falling and rebounded to a high level again. Currently, the market sentiment is boosted by the anti-involution and the policy expectations of important meetings, and the short-term trend of iron ore prices will continue to oscillate slightly stronger [7] Asphalt - On July 22, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and fell, with a decline of 1.42%, closing at 3,609 yuan. Last week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased month-on-month. The low social inventory has led to an increase in the sales volume of refineries, and downstream demand has improved. Overall, it fluctuates narrowly following the cost of crude oil [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,235 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. On July 23, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 65 lots compared with the previous day. The growth period of cotton in Xinjiang this year is about 5 - 7 days earlier than last year [8] Logs - On July 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 843.5, with a minimum of 835, a maximum of 846.5, and closed at 838, with a daily reduction of 2,264 lots. After reaching a four-month high of 856.5, the market declined, with increased trading volume and significant position reduction, increasing market pressure. Attention should be paid to the support level of 800 - 820 and the resistance level of 850. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 4-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 750 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply-demand relationship, and spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, and the support of macro expectations for the spot market [8] Steel - On July 22, rb2510 closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3,477 yuan/ton. Currently, the favorable factors in the industrial aspect of "anti-involution" and "promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" are being traded again in the market. The trading logic of the black chain has switched to the dual-drive of industrial benefits and valuation repair, coupled with the support of real estate policies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a work plan for stabilizing the growth of the steel industry. Attention should be paid to the matching degree between the marginal change of pig iron production and the implementation rhythm of policies [9] Alumina - On July 22, ao2509 closed at 3,513 yuan/ton. The bullish sentiment in the market mainly comes from three aspects: the continuous fermentation of the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, the limited supply of spot goods in the market, and the extremely low inventory in delivery warehouses; and the strong support from the demand side due to the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. In terms of trading, although the inquiries from spot-futures traders for hedging purposes are active, due to the tight supply of spot goods and the quotes of holders not meeting the expectations of buyers, actual transactions are limited. Most holders choose to postpone sales and adopt a wait-and-see attitude [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 22, al2509 closed at 20,900 yuan/ton. In China, a new plan for stabilizing the growth of the non-ferrous metal industry is about to be released, providing support for copper and aluminum. The world's largest hydropower project has also ignited the enthusiasm of the capital market. During the off-season of consumption, the amount of ingot casting has increased, and the recent arrival of spot goods in the market has increased, replenishing market supply. The increase in aluminum prices has significantly suppressed consumption, highlighting the weakness of actual terminal demand, and there is still pressure for aluminum ingot inventory accumulation [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Short-term, it is expected that the prices of edible oils will experience a high-level correction. Investors can consider buying on dips after the correction. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, after the correction, investors can consider selling put options or buying call options [12][13][14] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2509 contract were 8076, 8926, and 9477 respectively. The price of soybean oil decreased by 16, palm oil increased by 16, and rapeseed oil decreased by 86. The spot basis and its changes varied by region for each oil [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 48, 24, and 66 respectively. The changes were +4, -28, and -5 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was -850 with a change of -32, the OI - Y spread was 1401, and the OI - P spread was 551 with a change of -102. The oil - meal ratio was 2.62 with a change of -0.02 [3] - **Import Profits**: The on - paper profit for 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was -74, and for Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil, it was -654 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 29th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 59.1, 50.7, and 69.5 million tons respectively. Compared with last week and the same period last year, the inventory changes varied [3] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20, 2025, were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease from the same period last month [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 59.14 million tons, a 5.04% increase from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. It is expected to correct in the near future, and investors can consider buying on dips [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 109.18 million tons, a 4.04% increase from last week. With a large amount of soybeans arriving in the country and high crushing volume, it may experience a high - level correction in the short term and maintain a volatile trend. Investors can consider buying on dips [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons, a decrease from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. The spot market is sluggish, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. It will maintain a wide - range volatile trend, and investors should continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [10] Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term, expect edible oils to correct at high levels. Consider buying on dips after the correction [12] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13] - **Options Strategy**: After the correction, consider selling put options or buying call options [14] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different edible oils over the years, with data sources including Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [17][20]