Group 1: General Market Conditions - On December 2, 2025, A-share's three major indexes collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% to 3897.71 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.68% to 13056.70 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.69% to 3071.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1593.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 280.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index adjusted on December 2, closing at 4554.34, down 22.15 [2] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On December 2, the coke weighted index continued to rebound, closing at 1677.7, up 35.6; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1139.3 yuan, up 19.6 [2][3] - Coke supply is increasing, with significant inventory accumulation. Mine clean coal inventory increased by 20.44% in a single week, and coke plant inventory increased by 9.91% [4] - As of the end of October 2025, China's imported coking coal reached 98.869 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. In October, the total import volume was 10.5932 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.02% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%. From January to October, China's coke export volume was 6.2189 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.05%. In October, coke exports were 727,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34% and a year-on-year increase of 49.92% [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the supply outlook and weak technical indicators, US sugar tumbled on Monday. Under the influence of the decline in US sugar, the short sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to decline on Tuesday and in the night session [4] - Brazil's central-southern region produced 983,000 tons of sugar in the first half of November, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. The sugarcane crushing volume reached 18.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production dropped to 38.6% [4] Group 4: Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the rubber futures prices rebounded due to bargain hunting. The short sellers pressured the Shanghai Rubber futures to decline slightly in the night session [5] - ANRPC predicted that global natural rubber production in October would increase by 2.7% to 1.496 million tons, and consumption would decrease by 4.2% to 1.26 million tons. In the first 10 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.6% to 11.9 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.8% to 12.684 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [5] Group 5: Soybean Meal - On December 2, CBOT soybean futures prices slightly declined. The large expected production of South American soybeans suppressed the speculation of US soybean demand [5] - As of last Thursday, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans reached 89% of the expected area, compared with 91% in the same period last year. StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production would be 177.2 million tons. Argentina's soybean sowing was progressing smoothly, with a planting rate of over 20% [5] - On December 1, the M2601 contract closed at 3039 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. Currently, soybean supply is sufficient, crushing volume has increased, and soybean meal inventory is at a high level. The domestic soybean meal futures market is in a situation of cost support and supply pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 6: Live Pigs - On December 2, the LH2601 contract closed at 11455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35%. In the short term, as the end of the year approaches, most large-scale pig enterprises are more willing to sell pigs to meet their annual targets, and the number of pigs for sale has increased, putting pressure on prices [5] - The demand for pork has increased marginally due to the drop in temperature, and the traditional bacon-making season has started in the southwest region, but the overall progress is slow, and the demand recovery is gentle. The live pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [5] Group 7: Palm Oil - On December 2, the main palm oil contract continued to move positions and rebound. The price briefly opened lower and then quickly rose, closing at 8720, up 0.79%. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 30 was 779,392 tons, a decrease of 39.21% compared with the same period last month [5] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper 2601 contract showed a weak pattern of opening high and closing low. The linkage between futures and spot and between domestic and foreign markets weakened, and the trading activity decreased. The contract opened at 89410 yuan/ton, reached a high of 89920 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 88920 yuan/ton [6] - The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve supported the US dollar, suppressing global copper demand and causing funds to flow out of the non-ferrous metal sector. Traditional demand is weak, and the copper consumption in the real estate sector is under pressure. The supply-side positive factors cannot offset these two pressures [6] Group 9: Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 13720 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 96 lots compared with the previous trading day. Xinjiang's cotton purchase is basically over, and it is in the peak processing period. The commercial inventory is growing rapidly and is significantly higher than the same period last year [6] Group 10: Iron Ore - On December 2, the main iron ore 2601 contract fluctuated and closed up 0.5% at 800.5 yuan. The shipping volume increased month-on-month, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased again. In the off-season, as the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, the molten iron output continued to decline, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [6] Group 11: Asphalt - On December 2, the main asphalt 2601 contract fluctuated and declined 2.41% to close at 2916 yuan. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan decreased month-on-month, the inventory decreased, the demand entered the off-season, and the downstream procurement was cautious. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate [6] Group 12: Logs - On December 2, the log 2601 contract opened at 767.5, with a minimum of 767.5, a maximum of 774.5, and closed at 769.5, with a decrease of 1151 lots in positions. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, and the price in Jiangsu was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [6][7] Group 13: Steel - On December 2, the rb2601 contract closed at 3169 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3325 yuan/ton. The total new house sales area in ten major cities was 2.1112 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 38%. The real estate market is still at a low level. Due to the rush to complete infrastructure projects in some areas, demand has remained resilient, and steel inventory is expected to continue to decline. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7] Group 14: Alumina - On December 2, the ao2601 contract closed at 2670 yuan/ton. The trading logic of alumina supply exceeding demand continues, and the upward pressure remains. Domestic alumina production capacity is high, the import window is open, and the arrival of imported alumina will further exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand. Demand is weak, and the spot market trading is cold [7][8] Group 15: Shanghai Aluminum - On December 2, the al2601 contract closed at 21910 yuan/ton. The inhibitory effect of high aluminum prices on consumption has gradually eased, and some postponed demand has begun to be released. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, and primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors have all improved to varying degrees. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil market lacks clear drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long - at - low and high - throw - low - suck range operations. Do not rush to go long on palm oil [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8288 with no change. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8558, 8578, and 8448 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 290 (-10), 270 (0), and 160 (-10) [2]. - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8720, up 68. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8670, 8750, and 8830 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -50 (0), 30 (-50), and 110 (0) [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9745, down 25. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10025, 10295, etc. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 280 (-20), etc., and 550 (0) [2]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 192, down 10. For palm oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was -22, up 24. For rapeseed oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 264, down 22 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - In the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was -432, down 68; the OI - Y spread was 1457, down 25; the OI - P spread was 1025, down 93; the oil - meal ratio was 2.72, down 0.01 [2]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a disk profit of -153, with a CNF price of 1045 for the 1 - month ship - period. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was -925, with an FOB price of 1080 for the 1 - month ship - period [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: - In the 48th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 117.9 million tons (last week: 118.0 million tons, same period last year: 98.2 million tons); palm oil inventory was 65.4 million tons (last week: 66.7 million tons, same period last year: 51.7 million tons); rapeseed oil inventory was 36.8 million tons (last week: 38.5 million tons, same period last year: 45.0 million tons) [2]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From January to October 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel production was 11.613 billion liters, consumption was 11.947 billion liters, and exports were zero [4]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Palm Oil**: As of November 28, 2025 (the 48th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week. It is currently at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around -200. The basis is stable with a downward trend. There is no clear short - term driver, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2008 million tons, with an operating rate of 60.54%, a decrease from the previous week. As of November 28, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 117.88 million tons, a 0.09% decrease from last week. It is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the inventory inflection point has been reached. The domestic demand is average, and the inventory may slightly decrease. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and one can consider lightly going long on dips [4][5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal main oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 36.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of history but continuously de - stocking. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around -1000. The market has a sentiment of holding back sales. It is expected that the coastal de - stocking trend will continue. One can consider high - throw - low - suck operations [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Wait and see or conduct short - term long - at - low and high - throw - low - suck range operations. Do not rush to go long on palm oil [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see [9]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the 1 - 5 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil; the 01 spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, etc. [12][14]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Researcher Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean oil is expected to trade in a narrow range between 8,000 and 8,400, supported by the cost of imported soybeans, but the upside is limited due to high inventory [8]. - Rapeseed oil is policy - driven, with no new fundamental changes, and the market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand. The 1 - 5 inverse spread of rapeseed oil should be held, and attention should be paid to the customs clearance progress of Australian seeds and the regulatory policies of rapeseed oil reserves [8]. - Palm oil has many influencing factors. Adverse weather in Malaysia and Indonesia, lower - than - expected production growth in November, and possible tax cuts in Indonesia in December may improve exports, providing short - term bullish support. It is expected to trade in a range with resistance around 9,000 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2605 opened at 8,688, closed at 8,688 with a gain of 56 (0.65%), trading volume of 121,026, and open interest of 24,666 with an increase of 2,411 [7]. - P2601 opened at 8,638, closed at 8,652 with a gain of 64 (0.75%), trading volume of 367,522, and open interest of 312,424 with a decrease of 18,937 [7]. - Y2605 opened at 8,020, closed at 8,086 with a gain of 64 (0.80%), trading volume of 135,151, and open interest of 447,922 with an increase of 31,341 [7]. - Y2601 opened at 8,238, closed at 8,288 with a gain of 50 (0.61%), trading volume of 202,373, and open interest of 333,076 with a decrease of 14,314 [7]. - O1605 opened at 9,515, closed at 9,484 with a loss of 38 (- 0.40%), trading volume of 53,411, and open interest of 113,258 with an increase of 3,842 [7]. - Ol601 opened at 9,780, closed at 9,770 with a gain of 5 (0.05%), trading volume of 254,334, and open interest decreased by 4,352 [7]. - **Base Price Information**: - East China third - grade rapeseed oil: 11 - 12 months, OI2601 + 300; 12 - 1 month, OI2601 + 260. East China first - grade rapeseed oil: 11 - 12 months, OI2601 + 430 [7]. - East China first - grade soybean oil basis price: y2601 + 280 in December; y2601 + 290 in January; y2605 + 400 from February to May; y2605 + 250 from June to September [7]. - Palm oil quotes from Guangdong traders were slightly lowered by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Industry News - In Malaysia, the production of palm oil in November decreased by 0.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA data, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 2.09% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.36% [10]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease from October. Exports to China were 129,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from October [10]. - According to AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in November 2025 were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.9% decrease from October [10]. - As of November 26, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 36%, higher than 24.6% a week ago but 9% behind the same period last year and 1% behind the five - year average. Farmers in Santa Fe Province have started the second - season soybean sowing, with a progress of about 2.3%, and the emergence rate of sown soybeans is 23% [10][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - AgroConsult expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 178.1 million tons, with the planting area increasing by 2.1% to 48.8 million hectares. Brazil's soybean exports this year will reach 109.1 million tons and are expected to grow by 2.7% to 112 million tons next year [19]. - As of the week of November 23, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 65% to 99,500 tons compared with the previous week. From August 1, 2025, to November 23, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 1.9284 million tons, a 47.8% decrease from the same period last year. As of November 23, Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory was 1.3743 million tons [19].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on agricultural products (oils) dated December 1, 2025, released by the research institute of Galaxy Futures [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 3: Core Views - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Group 4: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8288 with a gain of 44. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8558, 8588, and 8458 respectively. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 300, 270, and 170 respectively [2] - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8652 with a gain of 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8602, 8732, and 8762 respectively. Basis values in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 50, 80, and 110 respectively [2] - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9770 with a gain of 13. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10070, 10320. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 300, and 550 respectively [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 202 with a decline of 2. For palm oil, it was - 46 with a gain of 6. For rapeseed oil, it was 286 with a gain of 30 [2] Cross - Variety Spreads - For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 364 with a gain of 18, the OI - Y spread was 1482 with a decline of 31, the OI - P spread was 1118 with a decline of 13, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a gain of 0.02 [2] Import Profits - The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 225, and the CNF price was 1048. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1074, and the FOB price was 1095 [2] Weekly Commercial Inventories - In the 47th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 118.0 tons (last week: 114.9 tons, last year: 105.3 tons), palm oil was 66.7 tons (last week: 65.3 tons, last year: 48.3 tons), and rapeseed oil was 38.5 tons (last week: 43.0 tons, last year: 44.1 tons) [2] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - According to foreign media reports, the devastating floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not had a significant impact on palm oil production. The affected areas are mostly residential areas rather than palm oil plantations [4] Domestic Market - Palm oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 66.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 tons (2.13%). It is at a neutral level compared to historical periods. The origin quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has widened to about - 300. The basis is stable. Short - term palm oil lacks a clear driver, with limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - Soybean oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 117.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons (2.73%). It is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory inflection point has been reached. The basis is stable. There are rumors of 1 - 3 tons of soybean oil exports. Domestic demand is average. Short - term supply is sufficient, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see and then try to go long lightly after a callback [7] - Rapeseed oil: As of November 21, 2025, the coastal inventory was 38.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 tons. It is at a high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has widened to about - 1000. The domestic basis is strong. It is expected that the coastal inventory will continue to decrease. It is recommended to go long on OI03 or 05 contracts when there is a callback [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [11] Options - It is recommended to wait and see [12]

Report Investment Ratings - Black Industry: Iron ore, coal coke, roll screw, and glass are rated as "oscillating"; coal coke is "oscillating weakly" [2] - Financial: CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "rebounding"; 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year treasury bonds are "oscillating", with 10-year treasury bonds "rising"; Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are "oscillating" [3] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][4] - Light Industry: Logs are "oscillating at the bottom"; pulp, double-offset paper are "oscillating weakly" [4][6] - Oilseeds and Oils: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are "running in a range"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, and soybean No.2 are "oscillating" [6] - Agricultural Products: Pigs are "oscillating strongly" [9] - Soft Commodities: Rubber, PX are "oscillating"; PTA is "oscillating"; MEG is "oscillating widely"; PR is "on the sidelines"; PF is "on the sidelines" [11] Core Views - The overall market is in a state of oscillation, with individual sectors showing weak, strong, or rebounding trends. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international economic situations [2][3][4] - The black industry is facing challenges such as over - supply and weak demand, and prices are likely to remain oscillating [2] - The financial market is short - term adjusted but remains optimistic in the medium - term, with high - tech industries continuing to grow [3] - Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, with prices likely to oscillate strongly [3][4] - The light industry is affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with prices oscillating at the bottom or weakly [4][6] - The oilseeds and oils market is affected by factors such as US biodiesel policies and South American weather, with prices running in a range or oscillating [6] - The agricultural products market, especially the pig market, is affected by factors such as supply and demand and slaughter rates, with prices oscillating strongly [9] - The soft commodities market is affected by factors such as weather and downstream demand, with prices oscillating [11] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 tons to 2939.5 tons, and daily average molten iron production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons. The supply - demand surplus is hard to reverse, and prices will oscillate at a high level [2] - Coal coke: Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the market is worried about supply resumption, and the coke enterprises started the first price cut. Supply concerns in the coking coal industry are intensifying, and prices will adjust weakly in the short - term [2] - Roll screw: Downstream demand is low, winter storage has not started, and prices will oscillate at the bottom. Whether steel prices can stop falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - Glass: Supply news is disturbing, and inventory has decreased. However, real - estate completion affects demand, and whether prices can rise depends on cold - repair progress [2][3] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The market adjusted in the short - term but remains optimistic in the medium - term. High - tech industries are growing. China's economic sentiment is generally stable [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 1bp, and the market trend is slightly rebounding [3] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting to central bank gold purchases. It is supported by factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases. Short - term Fed policies and geopolitical situations affect prices [3][4] - Silver: Similar to gold, it is affected by Fed policies and economic data, and prices are likely to oscillate strongly [4] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments decreased, imports and arrivals are changing, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - Pulp: Spot prices are differentiated, costs support is weakening, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, the market is cautious, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: US soybean crushing is at a record high, but bio - diesel policies are uncertain. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory are high, and domestic oil supply is abundant. Prices are expected to run in a range [6] - Meal: US soybean supply is structurally tight, but global supply is loose. Domestic supply is abundant, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Pigs: The average trading weight fluctuates, demand has recovered, and slaughter rates are rising. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and settlement prices may decline slightly next week [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Affected by weather, production in some areas is low, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [11] - PX: Supply is strong, downstream demand is good, and prices will oscillate [11] - PTA: Cost is loose, short - term supply - demand is improving, and prices will follow cost fluctuations [11] - MEG: There is long - term inventory pressure, and prices will oscillate with upward pressure [11] - PR: Cost is supported, but downstream follow - up is weak, and prices may rise with limited amplitude [11] - PF: Supply - demand is okay, and prices will oscillate without new news [11]

2025年11月30日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆情况，盘面震荡 | 8 | | 豆一：关注中美贸易情绪，盘面震荡 | 8 | | 玉米：高位震荡 | 13 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 19 | | 棉花：短期震荡偏强 | 26 | | 生猪：限仓驱动期现背离，产业逻辑将回归 | 33 | | 花生：关注现货 | 39 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 30 日 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：市场担忧马来四季度产量仍大，同时缺乏 B50 和美豆油的有效需求故事，棕榈油仍维持震荡 运行，但高产边际交易暂时充分，短期超跌后技术反弹支撑，棕榈油 01 合约周涨 0.1 ...

农产品板块研发报告 油脂缺乏利多驱动 短期或继续底部震荡 第一部分 前言概要 | | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 3 | | | | 二、马棕 11 | 月存增产预期，印尼关税下调一档 4 | | | 三、印度完成本年度采购，新年度或将增加棕榈油进口 | | 8 | | 四、美豆采购进度不快，国内油脂库存仍偏高 | | 11 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 15 | | | 免责声明 | | 16 | 【行情回顾】 11 月，油脂分化比较明显，其中棕榈油跌幅较大，豆油走出倒 V，而 菜油探底后震荡上涨。11 月中上旬棕榈油空头情绪较浓，棕榈油被空配以 及技术性打压，棕榈油下跌较多，而菜油受通关政策影响出现超跌反弹以及 加拿大计划推进生柴等，菜油震荡上涨。11 月中下旬受美国生柴消息扰动 以及马棕高频数据利空等，油脂波动加大，之后棕榈油在快速下跌后开始反 弹，而菜油在澳菜籽逐渐到港以及放 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: As the month - end approaches, the market focuses on export and production data. There is a risk of ending the rebound and falling again. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise and break through 8600 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean rises due to China's procurement, and CBOT豆油 may rise to 52 cents. However, domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory may increase, so it has no short - term upward momentum [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply of pigs accelerates, and the demand support is limited. Pig prices are expected to be in a weak and volatile structure. The strategy of inter - month reverse spread can be held, and the sustainability of the contract's rebound needs attention [3]. Meal - The domestic soybean meal market remains loose. The one - price rises with the market, and the basis drops slightly. The market is unlikely to have a continuous upward trend and may fall after a short - term rise [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Due to factors such as logistics in the Northeast and demand in North China, the price of corn at the grass - roots level remains firm. However, there is still a large amount of grain to be sold, so the upward space is limited [7]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents/pound. The new sugar in Guangxi is on the market, and the market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern at the bottom this week [11]. Cotton - ICE US cotton futures are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. US cotton export sales data shows a decline. Domestically, Zheng cotton faces hedging pressure, but the basis is firm and demand has resilience, so the cotton price may fluctuate in a range in the short term [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have fallen below the feed cost line, and the decline space is limited. The market is clearing inventory, demand is recovering, and egg futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On November 27, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8560 yuan, up 1.18%; the futures price of Y2601 was 8224 yuan, up 0.91%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8390 yuan, up 1.21%; the futures price of P2601 was 8558 yuan, up 1.04%. The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10110 yuan, unchanged [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was 222, up 11.00%; the palm oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was - 62, down 6.90%; the rapeseed oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was 233, down 16.49% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 60.71%. The price of LH2605 was 11990 yuan, down 0.58%; the price of LH2601 was 11585 yuan, up 0.39% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan was 11360 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [3]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 206827, up 0.47%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.28 yuan/kg, down 0.76% [3]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3030 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3055 yuan, up 1.33%. The basis of M2601 was - 25 yuan, down 266.67% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2470 yuan, up 1.23%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2469 yuan, up 1.23% [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 was 2243 yuan, up 0.36%. The import profit was 419 yuan, up 0.93%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning was 721, down 32.43% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2572 yuan, up 0.82%. The basis was 18 yuan, down 53.85% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of SR2601 was 5403 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The price of SR2605 was 5322 yuan, up 0.30%. ICE raw sugar rose 1.48% to 15.12 cents/pound [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 125 yuan, down 11.35% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production cumulative value was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The national sugar sales cumulative value was 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of CF2605 was 13605 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The price of CF2601 was 13640 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 64.61 cents/pound [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14700 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The CC Index of 3128B was 14891 yuan/ton, up 0.06% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 363.97 million tons, up 24.2%. The industrial inventory was 93.14 million tons, up 4.9% [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of JD12 was 2947 yuan/500KG, up 0.96%. The price of JD01 was 3282 yuan/500KG, up 1.77% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 2.98 yuan/jin, up 1.20%. The basis was - 303 yuan/500KG, down 7.71% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The egg - chicken chick price was 2.80 yuan/feather, down 3.57%. The culled - chicken price was 3.88 yuan/jin, down 3.96% [15].

Group 1: International News - The U.S. delegation will visit Moscow next week, and President Putin reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the U.S. list for resolving the Ukraine issue as a basis for future negotiations. He stated that if Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from currently controlled areas, Russia will cease military actions; otherwise, military means will be employed to achieve objectives [1][6]. Group 2: Domestic News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss promoting high-quality development and reviewed the provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance. The meeting emphasized the need to enhance grassroots medical service capabilities [7]. Group 3: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities. The NDRC also highlighted the need to balance speed and bubble risks in the development of embodied intelligence industries, particularly humanoid robots [8]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a high followed by a pullback. The light industry manufacturing sector led the gains, while the comprehensive sector lagged. The market turnover was 1.72 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 5.977 billion yuan to 24,522.65 billion yuan [2][11]. Group 5: Commodity Insights - In the coal market, the double焦 (coking coal and coke) futures showed weak performance, with total positions remaining stable. Steel production slightly increased, but overall inventory continued to decline, primarily driven by rebar. The profitability of steel mills is under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron production [2][21]. Group 6: Oil Market Analysis - The SC night market for crude oil rose by 1.46%. There are mixed sentiments regarding the potential restart of peace talks in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily oil supply from nine OPEC countries was 23.77 million barrels in October, a decrease of 180,000 barrels from September [3][14].

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 11 月 26 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 各品种地区现货价 品种 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8150 | 6 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8420 | | | | 8450 | 8320 | 300 | 0 | 270 | 0 | 170 | 10 | | 棕榈油 | 8440 | 80 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8390 | | | | 8510 | 8550 | -50 | 0 | 7 ...