www.ccxi.com.cn 2025 年 7 月 目录 | 摘要 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 个贷不良行业相关监管政策 | 2 | | 个贷不良的市场规模和特征 | 3 | | AMC 处置个贷不良的主要模式 | 5 | | AMC 处置个贷不良的案例分析 | 6 | | AMC 处置个贷不良的难点和解决方案 | 8 | 联络人 结论 13 作者 企业评级部 刘 洁 027-87339288 jliu01@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 | 贺文俊 | 027-87339288 | | --- | --- | | | wjhe@ccxi.com.cn | | 高哲理 | 027-87339288 | | | zlgao@ccxi.com.cn | 中诚信国际 特别评论 AMC 行业 个贷不良2.0 时代的进阶：AMC 如何迎接个贷不良 新风口？ 受宏观经济下行、居民收入波动、行业结构调整等多重因素影响，个贷不良市 场规模增长较快，为 AMC 带来新的业务机遇；同时监管政策从交易流程、风 险管理等多个维度构建个贷不良监管体系，为 AMC 合规有序开展个贷不良业 务奠定了政策基础。个贷不良 ...

Group 1 - The attractiveness of emerging market assets is increasing as global investment managers seek alternatives due to uncertainty in U.S. policies [1] - GMO's portfolio manager Victoria Courmes emphasizes that emerging market bonds present a "once-in-a-generation" investment opportunity, driven by the trade and economic policies of the Trump administration [2] - Since GMO first highlighted this opportunity in January 2024, the index tracking emerging market bond returns has risen over 10%, outperforming investment-grade bonds which increased by about 5% during the same period [2] Group 2 - Courmes believes that the Trump administration's policies are key catalysts for the potential depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which would enhance the relative value of emerging market local currencies [2] - Currently, interest rates in emerging markets have returned to average levels seen between 2004 and 2011, offering total return potential that exceeds spot currency appreciation [2] - The opportunity to acquire a combination of cheap currency and high interest rates is rare and typically does not last long [3] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs also shares a positive outlook on emerging market bonds, indicating that their prospects will become more constructive in the second half of the year [3] - Analyst Tadas Gedminas from Goldman Sachs suggests that as the Federal Reserve approaches interest rate cuts and considering the expectation of further declines in oil prices, the outlook for local rates in emerging markets will become more optimistic in the latter half of the year [4]

继三年前原华融资产（现中国中信金融资产）转手旗下银行后，近日又见全国性AMC清退其所持银行股 权。 这一次转手的是长城资管，易主的是长城华西银行，接盘的是四川银行。 券商中国记者查阅相关债券发行文件，截至今年一季度末，四川银行资产总额（集团口径）4567.11亿元，负 债总额4198.24亿元；长城华西银行资产总额1562.61亿元，负债总额1459.37亿元。 至此，由四大全国性AMC实控的银行，只剩大连银行和南洋商业银行两家。 四川银行入主长城华西银行 近日，四川金融监管局批复同意四川银行入股长城华西银行9.4259亿股股份，入股完成后持股比例为40.92%。 这意味着原控股股东长城资产将彻底退出持股逾十年的长城华西银行。 十余年来，尽管长城华西银行经历多轮增资、股东结构有所调整，但长城资产始终保持控股地位。长城华西银 行2024年年报显示，截至去年末，长城资产持有该行股份占比19.96%，关联方德阳市国有资产经营有限公司 持有该行股份占比20.96%，二者合计持股占比40.92%。 就在上月，长城资产在北京产权交易所以43.32亿元出让其所持全部股份。从挂牌信息看，长城华西银行总资 产账面价值为1482 ...

Group 1 - The demand for stable returns among investors is increasing, leading to a greater emphasis on dividend mechanisms [1] - Morgan Asset Management has launched a "Dividend Toolbox" that includes quarterly mandatory dividend mechanisms for its ETFs, such as the Morgan CSI A50 ETF, Morgan CSI A500 ETF, and Morgan CSI 300 Free Cash Flow ETF [1] - As of now, these three products have cumulatively distributed dividends amounting to 230 million yuan since their inception [1] Group 2 - The willingness and ability of A-share listed companies to distribute dividends have significantly improved due to ongoing fundamental enhancements [2] - The Morgan CSI A500 ETF, which tracks the CSI A500 Index, benefits from rising corporate profits in sectors like industrials and information technology, supported by policy and economic recovery [2] - The Morgan CSI 300 Free Cash Flow ETF selects companies with high free cash flow rates, requiring them to have positive operating cash flow for five consecutive years and to rank in the top 80% for earnings quality [2] Group 3 - Morgan Asset Management's "Dividend Toolbox" aims to provide a diversified dividend investment solution for Chinese investors, covering core A-share assets, Hong Kong dividend stocks, and free cash flow strategies [2]

研究还发现，新兴市场仍是主权财富基金的战略重点，但组合内部的优先次序正在发生转变，主权财富 基金正采取更为精挑细选的投资方法，且对中国市场的兴趣明显回升。在受访者的首选新兴市场投资重 点中，59%的受访者将中国列为高度或中度优先市场，位列第二。这是自2024年以来的重大转变，可能 表明投资者对中国市场进行单独配置，与更广泛的新兴市场分开。 大多数受访者(59%)预计未来五年将增加对中国资产的配置，其中亚太地区主权财富基金的比例为 88%，北美主权财富基金的比例为73%。主权财富基金认为，具有吸引力的当地回报(71%)、多元化效 益(63%)以及扩大外国投资者市场准入(45%)是其配置中国资产的驱动因素。中国最具吸引力的投资领域 是数字科技和软件(89%)、先进制造和自动化(70%)以及清洁能源和绿色科技(70%)。 研究发现，主动型策略成为比肩基础被动型持仓的关注焦点。主权财富基金的投资组合平均70%以上采 用固定收益及股票的主动型策略。调查显示，52%的主权财富基金计划在未来两年增加主动型股票持 仓，47%则计划增持主动型固定收益持仓。这一转向在大型机构中最为明显，在资产管理规模超过1000 亿美元的主权财 ...

1 证 2025 年 7 月 15 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 券 研 究 报 告 美国商务部对无人机和多晶硅进口启动 232 调查 特朗普威胁对俄罗斯征收 100%的二级关税 特朗普将宣布 700 亿美元 AI 和能源投资，贝莱德等公司的 高管将亲临现场 欧盟准备对 720 亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税 日本参议院选举前引发财政忧虑 日债收益率逼近历史高位 6 月金融数据：M2 增速回升，社融增量 4.2 万亿元 中国 6 月稀土出口量升至 2009 年以来最高水平 中国 6 月大豆进口创历年同期新高 巴西供应大增 上半年新注册登记新能源汽车 562.2 万辆 创历史新高 扎克伯格：Meta 将在 AI 领域投资数千亿美元 2 年期美债收益率涨 0.99 个基点报 3.896% 5 年期美债收益率涨 1.58 个基点报 3.985% 10 年期美债收益率涨 2.40 个基点报 4.433% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌( ...

从业务布局看，截至2024年末，公司能源类困境资产项目存量余额达45亿元，根据重组协议，此类项目 将在未来持续贡献稳定的重组收益；上市公司困境资产项目余额6.55亿元、特殊机遇项目存量余额22.35 亿元，业务结构与国家"服务实体经济、化解金融风险"的政策导向契合，为长期收益释放埋下伏笔。 政策层面，监管部门持续优化不良资产市场生态，明确鼓励AMC发挥"金融稳定器"作用，通过重组、 重整等手段盘活困境资产；市场层面，经济转型期涌现的特殊机遇资产为行业提供了广阔增量空间。在 此背景下，海德股份已与多家银行、地方AMC及非持牌资管机构构建了全方位合作关系，进一步巩固 了行业竞争力。 展望未来，随着存量项目收益的逐步释放与新增业务的落地，海德股份有望抓住不良资产行业新一轮发 展机遇，实现价值的提升，持续为实体经济与金融稳定贡献专业力量。(CIS) 从行业环境来看，国家金融监管总局数据显示，2024年我国全年不良资产处置规模达3.8万亿元，创历 史新高，市场活跃度持续攀升。作为服务实体经济、化解金融风险的重要力量，资产管理公司(AMC)在 政策支持下，正迎来广阔的发展空间。 海德股份表示，公司稳健推进业务开展，在"挤 ...

Group 1: Investment Growth and Policies - Singapore's foreign direct investment inflow is projected to grow by 6.1% in 2024, reaching a historical high of $143.4 billion, moving from third to second place globally among single-country economies [1] - The Singapore government has implemented targeted measures to facilitate foreign investment, including a $1.3 billion enterprise assistance package to alleviate business operating costs and a 50% income tax reduction for companies, capped at $40,000 [1][2] - The refundable investment tax credit program, effective from January 2023, allows companies to offset up to 50% of their corporate income tax for investments in high-value economic activities [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Economic Stability - Singapore's strategic location as a global trade and aviation hub provides vast development opportunities for investors, supported by stable economic policies that reduce investment risks [3] - The country boasts a mature financial system with strict regulations ensuring market stability and security, alongside advanced payment and credit rating systems that enhance transaction efficiency [3] - Continuous investment in world-class infrastructure, including ports and airports, supports logistics and digital economy growth, further solidifying Singapore's attractiveness for foreign investment [3] Group 3: Talent and Political Environment - Singapore's education system emphasizes practical skills, producing a skilled workforce, while policies attract global talent, creating a diverse talent pool to meet various business needs [4] - A stable political and social environment provides a fundamental guarantee for investment security, complemented by a high-quality living and working environment that fosters a positive cycle of talent attraction and investment [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - In the context of global economic recovery, Singapore is becoming an ideal choice for investors seeking both safety and profit, particularly in the digital and green economy sectors [5] - The country's proactive positioning in emerging industries aligns with global trends, suggesting that Singapore will maintain its leading position in the global investment market and continue attracting quality foreign capital [5]

Core Viewpoint - India is on track for a record year in initial public offerings (IPOs), driven by interest rate cuts and strong domestic demand for stocks, with total IPO value reaching $6.7 billion year-to-date, up from $5.4 billion in the same period last year, making it the largest IPO market outside the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The anticipated IPOs, including Tata Capital's expected $2 billion offering, could push India past last year's record of $21 billion raised [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts a significant acceleration in the primary market, estimating that fundraising could reach $20 billion in the second half of the year [1] - The Nifty 50 index, which had a sluggish start to the year, has risen approximately 7% year-to-date, nearing historical highs [1] Group 2 - The lack of a trade agreement between New Delhi and Washington, along with potential additional tariffs from Trump, creates uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, necessitating more successful IPOs to validate the bull market [2] - The Reserve Bank of India's one percentage point interest rate cut has boosted market optimism, aided by easing inflation pressures and signs of economic recovery [2] - Domestic retail investors are channeling significant household savings into mutual funds, benefiting from personal income tax cuts [2] Group 3 - Further rate cuts from the central bank are expected to enhance domestic investor interest in stocks, including IPOs, while foreign institutional investors remain underweight in the Indian market, indicating potential investment space [2] - Despite foreign institutional investors withdrawing $8 billion from Indian equities this year due to valuation concerns, domestic funds have attracted over $42 billion, offsetting the impact of foreign exits [2] - Companies seeking to go public are seizing the market rebound, with ICICI Prudential Asset Management expected to be the third company this year to list with a market cap exceeding $1 billion [2] Group 4 - HDB Financial Services has seen a 5% increase in stock price since its $1.5 billion IPO earlier this month, while Hexaware's stock has risen nearly 15% since raising $1 billion in February [3] - These successful transactions have boosted confidence among a long list of IPO candidates, with expectations for more medium to large IPOs to test market demand [3] - Upcoming IPO plans include those from LG Group's Indian subsidiary, stock brokerage platform Groww, and e-commerce company Meesho [3]

市场对特朗普上周一系列关税声明的反应较为平淡，但美国最大的担忧还未解除，特朗普提前预告将就 俄罗斯问题发表重大声明，"起爆点"就在今晚？ 大型投资者和资深银行家们警告称，美国股市的创纪录高位掩盖了特朗普对全球最大经济体构成的风 险，他们同时警告市场中存在日益增长的"自满"情绪。 从东方汇理资产管理公司（Amundi）到摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的资深高管表示，市场过于自信 地认为，特朗普会放弃那些最有可能威胁美国金融稳定的政策。 东方汇理资产管理公司（欧洲最大的资产管理公司）首席投资官文森特·莫蒂尔（Vincent Mortier）表 示："对我来说，市场对'TACO'（特朗普总是退缩）这一华尔街普遍说法的自满情绪相当明显。" 摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon），作为美国金融界最杰出的高管之一，在上周四的一个 活动中也表达了同样的看法，并指出："不幸的是，我认为市场存在自满情绪。" 特朗普近日表示："我认为我将在周一就俄罗斯问题发表重大声明。"荷兰国际分析师表示："特朗普有 可能宣布对俄罗斯实施更多制裁，如果制裁针对俄罗斯能源，这可能会极大地改变石油前景。" 一位前特朗普政府 ...