Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a neutral fundamental situation with a range - bound trend. Supply - side blast furnace profits are stable, electric furnace profits are weakening, and short - term production may continue to increase. Demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is seasonally weakening, and inventory will continue to accumulate [3]. - The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term, with seasonal inventory accumulation. However, due to the support from the steel market and the expected restocking by steel mills, the downside price space is limited [23]. - The coking coal market shows a pattern of "strong spot, weak futures", and the basis is at a high level. Short - term spot prices may face回调 pressure, and medium - to - long - term prices may face significant downward pressure under certain conditions [33]. - The ferroalloy market is in a range - bound pattern between the cost line and the previous pressure level. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are slightly better than those of silicomanganese [50]. - The soda ash market has an increasing excess supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price [64]. - The glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trend - based movement. The high inventory of the mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure [87]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: - Rebar: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3200, 3123, and 3169 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3326, 3280, and 3301 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the rebar summary price in China was 3313 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [9][12]. - **Spread Data**: - Rebar spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 77, - 46, and - 31 respectively [4]. - Hot - rolled coil spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 spreads were 46, - 21, and - 25 respectively [4]. - Other spreads: The roll - rebar spread, basis, and other spreads also have corresponding values and changes [9][12][17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: - Futures prices: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 752.5, 783, and 764.5 yuan/ton respectively [24]. - Spot prices: On January 28, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 793 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: - On January 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 228.1 thousand tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 310.73 thousand tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 16766.53 thousand tons [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: - Coking coal spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 178, - 80, and 258 respectively [36]. - Coke spreads: On January 28, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads were - 91.5, - 71, and 162.5 respectively [36]. - Other data: The basis, coking profit, and other indicators also have corresponding values and changes [36]. - **Spot Prices**: - On January 28, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1640 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloy - **Ferrosilicon Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was - 32 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicomanganese Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 188 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5570 yuan/ton [52]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1198, 1259, and 1295 yuan/ton respectively [65]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 61, - 36, and 97 respectively [65]. - **Spot Prices**: - On January 28, 2026, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: - On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1067, 1173, and 1227 yuan/ton respectively [88]. - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 106, - 54, and 160 respectively [88]. - **Sales and Production Data**: - On January 27, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 122%, and in Hubei was 138% [89].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Vale achieved strong operational performance across all its businesses in 2025, exceeding the production guidance set at the beginning of the year [2] - Iron ore and copper production reached their highest levels since 2018, at 336 million tons and 382,000 tons respectively, while nickel production hit its highest level since 2022 at 177,000 tons [2] - The strong performance is attributed to the ramp-up of key projects and stable ongoing operations [2] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, iron ore production totaled 90.4 million tons, an increase of 5.1 million tons or 6% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from the Brucutu mine and the ongoing ramp-up of the Capanema project and VGR1 plant [2] - Pellet production totaled 8.3 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons or 9% year-on-year, reflecting market conditions [2] - Iron ore sales reached 84.9 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons or 5% year-on-year, consistent with production growth [2] Group 3 - In Q4 2025, copper production totaled 108,100 tons, an increase of 6% year-on-year, marking the highest quarterly production since 2018, driven by record output from the Salobo operation and stable performance from the Sossego operation and Canadian polymetallic assets [3] - Nickel production totaled 46,200 tons, an increase of 2% year-on-year, attributed to the successful commissioning of the Onça Puma furnace 2 and the gradual ramp-up of the Voisey's Bay underground mine [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, the prices of Chinese chemical products have bottomed out and rebounded, with a trend reversal. As of January 26, 2026, the Chinese chemical product price index rose to 4084, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The year - on - year decline in PPI of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing industries in December has narrowed, indicating that the industry's price pressure is continuously easing [1]. - The newly revised "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" was announced on the 27th and will come into effect on May 15. Encouraging innovation is a prominent feature of this revision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Chemical**: The price of PTA continues to rise [1]. - **Energy**: The prices of international crude oil and liquefied natural gas have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Midstream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [2]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants continues at a low level [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [2]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [2]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 27, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork increased year - on - year by 0.19%, 5.81%, 2.46%, 0.64%, and 0.92% respectively [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year by 0.85%, 1.76%, 0.76%, and 2.34% respectively, while the spot price of aluminum decreased by 0.18% [36]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot price of iron ore increased year - on - year by 1.13%, while the spot prices of rebar and wire decreased by 0.35% and 1.15% respectively [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of glass and natural rubber increased year - on - year by 1.56% and 2.79% respectively, and the China Plastic City price index increased by 0.46% [36]. - **Energy**: On January 27, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas increased year - on - year by 2.17%, 1.58%, and 3.63% respectively, while the coal price decreased by 0.12% [36]. - **Chemical**: On January 27, the spot prices of PTA and polyethylene increased year - on - year by about 5.87% and 2.18% respectively, while the spot prices of urea and soda ash decreased by 0.43% and 0.12% respectively [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 27, the national cement price index and building materials composite index decreased year - on - year by 0.75% and 0.46% respectively, and the national concrete price index remained unchanged [36].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are weakly stable. The night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3123 yuan and 3287 yuan respectively. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar remains at 200 yuan. Due to raw material prices being weaker than steel prices, the profitability of steel mills has increased. Production is stable at a low level, inventory is accumulating, and apparent demand is decreasing. The supply - demand of the industry is weak. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is obvious, the supply - demand gap of rebar is widening, and inventory is accumulating significantly. The demand for hot - rolled coil has not declined much, and the inventory is still being depleted. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate within a range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3200 yuan, and hot - rolled coil is expected to fluctuate between 3250 - 3350 yuan. The long - position on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar can be continued to hold [1] Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated weakly yesterday. The ore price is still under pressure. Although Vale's production suspension event has limited impact on supply, the supply side has a slightly increasing global shipment volume, with a marginal decline in the shipment center but still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. The demand side is expected to keep the molten iron production stable, and the seasonal decline in the port clearance volume indicates that the resumption of molten iron production before the festival is restricted. Steel exports have weakened significantly. Port inventory continues to accumulate but at a slower pace, and steel mill inventory growth has also slowed down. Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is under pressure. It can be short - sold around 800 yuan. Be vigilant against macro - level fluctuations [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a weakly declining trend yesterday. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has landed and stabilized. The supply side has slightly reduced production due to pressure on coking profits. The demand side has seen a slight recovery in molten iron production after the New Year's Day. The inventory in ports and steel mills has increased, while that in coking plants has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. The mainstream coking enterprises have initiated a price increase, but it has not been implemented, and the post - festival market is expected to be loose. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1600 - 1750 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Coking coal futures also showed a weakly declining trend. The supply side has seen an increase in daily production and better shipments but insufficient inventory reduction. The demand side has limited downstream replenishment demand before the Spring Festival. The inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills has increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports has decreased. The overall inventory has increased slightly. It should be regarded as oscillating and bearish, with the range of 1000 - 1150 yuan. The arbitrage strategy is also to go long on coking coal and short on coke [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The main ferrosilicon contract oscillated weakly yesterday, with a continuous decline in open interest. The supply is stable at a low level, and most regions' production is flat compared to last week. The steel - making demand is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival, and the non - steel demand has weakened. The cost in Inner Mongolia may increase due to the expected electricity price adjustment. The overall situation is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan. The main ferromanganese contract also oscillated weakly, with a gradual increase in open interest. The supply has decreased, and the production is at a historically low level. The demand is also weak, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan [6] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3280 yuan to 3260 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 16 yuan [1] Cost and Profit - The price of steel billet decreased by 20 yuan to 2930 yuan, and the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan to 27 yuan [1] Production - The daily average molten iron production was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The production of rebar increased by 9.3 tons to 199.6 tons, with a 4.9% increase, and the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.9 tons to 305.4 tons, with a 1.0% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.1 tons to 1257.1 tons, with a 0.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 14.0 tons to 452.1 tons, with a 3.2% increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.6 tons to 357.8 tons, with a 1.3% decrease [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 1.0 tons to 6.6 tons, with a 12.8% decrease. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 16.6 tons to 809.5 tons, with a 2.0% decrease [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 05 - contract for some varieties decreased. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan to - 31.0 yuan, with a 5.1% decrease [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 129.7 tons to 2530.0 tons, with a 4.9% decrease, and the global shipment volume increased by 48.4 tons to 2978.3 tons, with a 1.7% increase [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 9.2 tons to 310.7 tons, with a 2.9% decrease [3] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 211.4 tons to 16766.53 tons, with a 1.3% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 tons to 9388.8 tons, with a 1.4% increase [3] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures and spot prices generally decreased. For example, the 05 - contract price of coke decreased by 51 yuan to 1668 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 43 yuan to 1117 yuan [5] Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.3 tons, with a 0.2% decrease, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 tons to 46.9 tons, with a 0.4% increase. The raw coal production of sample mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, with a 0.3% decrease [5] Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 228.1 tons, almost unchanged. The demand for coke mainly comes from the molten iron production [5] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 18.9 tons to 939.2 tons, with a 2.1% increase. The coking coal inventory in mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills increased, while that in coal - washing plants, ports, and border ports decreased [5] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The main contract prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly. The SF - SM main spread decreased by 14 yuan to - 214 yuan [6] Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit decreased. The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port were relatively stable [6] Supply - The production of ferrosilicon was stable at a low level, and the production of ferromanganese decreased slightly. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 5.2 tons to 77.7 tons, with a 7.2% increase [6] Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steel - making is expected to keep molten iron production stable before the festival. The non - steel demand for ferrosilicon has weakened [6] Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 0.3 tons to 6.7 tons, with a 5.4% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises was stable [6]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight gains with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% to 4,139.90 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.09%[15] - The S&P 500 index reached a new high, increasing by 0.41% to 6,978 points, supported by a strong performance in technology stocks[9] - European markets showed moderate gains, with the Euro Stoxx 600 up 0.6% and the UK FTSE 100 rising 0.58%[9] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index fell by 0.8%, leading to the euro surpassing 1.2 against the dollar[26] - Gold prices exceeded $5,100, and silver prices crossed the $110 mark, both reaching record highs[26] - Oil futures rose to their highest levels since October 2022, with NY crude oil up 2.9% to $62.39 per barrel[26] Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index dropped to its lowest level in over 11.5 years, impacting market sentiment[9] - The US Treasury yield curve steepened, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.24% and the 30-year yield reaching 4.86%[29] Corporate Highlights - Mobileye reported a decline in revenue due to low customer inventory but anticipates a rebound in Q1 2026 as customers restock[7] - Vale's iron ore production reached 336.1 million tons in 2025, the highest since the 2019 dam disaster, maintaining production guidance for 2026 at 335-345 million tons[7] Geopolitical Developments - Trump's potential visit to China in April 2026 could focus on US manufacturing investment, impacting China's manufacturing sector and pricing power[5] - The EU and India finalized a free trade agreement after nearly 20 years of negotiations, which may influence market dynamics[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 791 with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 2, with an import profit of 18.04; PB powder is at 795, daily change 2, weekly change -4; Mac powder is at 789, daily change 0, weekly change -7, import profit 38.56; Jinbuba powder is at 748, daily change 2, weekly change -4, import profit 53.67; Mixed powder is at 726, daily change 1, weekly change -10, import profit 2.68; Super special powder is at 673, daily change 3, weekly change -1, import profit 2.25 [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore is at 823, daily change -1, weekly change -7, import profit 6.98; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is at 759, daily change 2, weekly change -4; Brazilian coarse SSFG is at 764, daily change 2, weekly change -4 [1] - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is at 875, daily change 3, weekly change 0; 61% Indian powder is at 737, daily change 2, weekly change -4; Karara concentrate powder is at 879, daily change 3, weekly change 0; Roy Hill powder is at 782, daily change 2, weekly change -4, import profit 61.68; KUMBA powder is at 854, daily change 2, weekly change -4; 57% Indian powder is at 608, daily change 3, weekly change -1; Atlas powder is at 721, daily change 1, weekly change -10; Tangshan iron concentrate powder is at 979, daily change -3, weekly change 8 [1] Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2701 is at 757.0, daily change 2.0, weekly change 0.0, with a monthly spread of 12.5; i2605 is at 788.0, daily change 3.5, weekly change -1.5, monthly spread -31.0; i2609 is at 769.5, daily change 3.5, weekly change -2.0, monthly spread 18.5 [1] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is at 105.62, daily change -0.25, weekly change -0.47, monthly spread -3.40; FE05 is at 103.54, daily change -1.07, weekly change -1.06, monthly spread 2.08; FE09 is at 102.22, daily change -1.06, weekly change -1.05, monthly spread 1.32 [1]

黑色建材日报 2026-01-28 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3126 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 17 元/吨（-0.54%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 171.47 万手，环比减少 16197 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3289 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 13 元/吨（-0.39%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 150.84 万手，环比减少 6369 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪较好，成材价格继续在底部区间内震荡。基本面方面，热轧卷板供需双双回落，库 存水平逐步下降并趋 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月28日08时21分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量环比增加 ，整体库存增加，螺纹表观需求环比回落，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量基本维持不 变。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位回升。央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 ，未 来仍有降准和降息的空间，不排除央行将很快行动。从技术面看，目前期价在上下 100 元/吨的区间窄幅震荡，可能面临方向选择 操作建议： 多单轻仓持有，待期价回落至震荡区间下沿附近后再逢低加仓 ，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3126 | -17 | -0.54% | 15 | 0.48% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3289 ...

弱现实与强预期交织 后期铁矿石价格预计呈现高位震荡格局。一方面，市场整体乐观的氛围以及"十五五"开局之年稳投资政 策带来需求改善预期，另一方面，现实的供需基本面构成主要压力，供应处于历史同期高位，且仍有不 小的增量预期，港口库存持续累积至历史高位。 市场乐观氛围持续 今年以来，国内金融市场延续了自去年12月中旬以来的偏强态势。目前，上证指数年内累计涨幅在 4.22%，科创等中小指数表现更加亮眼，年内涨幅已超10%。商品方面，金属板块整体表现强势，黄 金、白银期货价格不断刷新历史高点，年内分别累计上涨14.26%、42.21%，有色金属代表性品种铜、 铝年内分别上涨4.18%、6.93%。在金融市场以及金属板块表现强势的背景之下，铁矿石等黑色金属在 淡季整体跟随小幅探涨。 此外，稳投资已成为"十五五"开局之年的重点工作，去年年底召开的中央经济工作会议也提出要着力推 动投资止跌回稳。基建、房地产、制造业等领域稳投资政策发力将增强工业品需求预期，铁矿石及黑色 金属品种有望获得支撑。 供应处于历史高位 在去年年末发运冲量结束后，今年以来铁矿石发运量季节性回落，但整体仍处于历史高位。截至1月16 日，全球铁矿石累计发运 ...

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2026 年 01 月 27 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 757.0 | 755.0 | 2.0 | I01-I05 | -31.0 | -29.5 | -1.5 | | DCE05 | 788.0 | 784.5 | 3.5 | I05-I09 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 0.0 | | DCE09 | 769.5 | 766.0 | 3.5 | I09-I01 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 789 | 800 | -11 | 857 | 94 | 64 | 83 | | 纽曼粉 | 789 | 800 | -11 | 863 | 100 | 70 | 89 | | 麦克粉 | 789 | 800 | -11 | 871 | 108 | 79 | 9 ...