1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Last week, steel prices showed a pattern of low - level upward repair, but with weak demand and insufficient upward momentum. The overall steel market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coils in the 3150 - 3350 range [1]. - Rebar has good de - stocking performance, and the 1 - 5 positive spread can be held. The acceleration of plate production cuts is expected to speed up the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, and the 5 - month hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can be exited at low levels. The screw - to - ore ratio is still weak, and considering the low level of molten iron, one can try to long the screw - to - ore ratio arbitrage at low levels [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded slightly and remained range - bound. The key factors for future trading are the steel mill restocking expectation and the downward space of molten iron. The overall iron ore market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with the range of 730 - 820. It is recommended to operate the 05 contract within the range and try shorting around 800 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, both coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. Coke spot prices are still in a downward adjustment trend, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. For coke, it is recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is also recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and use the same arbitrage strategy [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Last week, ferrosilicon prices rebounded slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be resolved, and the price is expected to be range - bound between 5400 - 5650. It is recommended to try shorting when the price rebounds above the immediate cost in Ningxia [8]. - Ferromanganese is in a state of overall supply - demand balance, and manganese ore provides certain support for ferromanganese prices. The key factors for the future are the production cut amplitude and the steel mill restocking before winter. The price is expected to move weakly with limited amplitude [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, and futures prices also showed a downward trend. The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed to varying degrees [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained stable. The costs of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu increased, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some increasing and some still in a loss state [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output increased slightly by 0.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.0%, the rebar output increased by 1.6%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, with rebar having better de - stocking performance and hot - rolled coil having slower de - stocking [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.8%, the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 0.5%, the apparent demand of rebar increased by 2.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of various iron ore varieties showed a slight increase or decrease. The basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore varieties increased to varying degrees, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment increased compared to the previous period, and the molten iron output decreased by 1.2%. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume decreased by 1.8%, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port iron ore inventory increased by 0.8%, the inventory of 64 steel mills in terms of available days decreased by 1.2%, and the inventory of 247 steel mills in terms of available days increased by 5.0% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a downward trend in some contracts, and the basis of different contracts changed. The spot prices of coke and coking coal also had different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and molten iron production decreased by 1.2%. The supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand for coking coal also decreased due to the decrease in coke production [7]. Inventory - Coke inventory decreased slightly overall, with coking plants accumulating inventory and ports and steel mills reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory increased slightly overall, with coal washing plants and coking enterprises reducing inventory and mines, ports, steel mills, and ports accumulating inventory [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices increased slightly, and the spot prices of most regions remained stable. The spreads between different regions and contracts also changed [8]. Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices were firm, and some overseas mines' January offers increased. Electricity prices were basically stable, providing certain cost support for ferromanganese. The cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased slightly [8]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 6.15%, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased by 6.6%. Ferromanganese production decreased by 0.5%, and the operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The demand for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon factory inventory remained high, and the inventory decreased by 16.3%. Ferromanganese inventory increased slightly by 0.7%, and the average available days of inventory for both remained relatively stable [8].

· 黑色金属年度报告 【钢矿】潮平两岸阔，风正一帆悬 | 投资观点： | 震荡 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-12-22 | 年度报告 | ⚫ 摘要： 2025 年，贸易摩擦冲突加剧，逆全球化倾向持续抬头，不仅加剧国内 出口不确定性，更冲击出口结构，但在"区域转移+品种优化"调节下中国 钢材出口表现超预期。国内逆周期调节及反内卷政策持续发力，带来价格 脉冲反弹，但有效需求不足、产能宽松及成本松动是价格压力的主要来源。 2026 年，国内"十五五"开局之年，美联储降息周期深化之年，钢材 总量需求或将持稳。铁矿供给延续宽松或将带来成本价格中枢下移，进而 对钢材价格造成影响。关注产业季节性和结构性的矛盾机会。 1、钢材："十五五"开局之年，总量增长诉求强烈，托底钢材需求； 内需弱稳预期，外需具备韧性；同时，下游分化程度或小幅收敛：地产艰 难寻底，对需求的边际拖累效应收窄；基建仍是逆周期调节的重要抓手， 增量重点在于新基建，耗钢需求预计持平；制造业和出口是最具韧性的板 块，但 26 年在"以旧换新"政策热度退坡和出口政策调整的影响下，存在 较大不确定性，有下修可能性，这一 ...

研究报告 铁矿周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约上涨 2.63%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.47%，环比减少 0.16%，同比减少 1.16%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 84.93%，环比减少 0.99%， 同比减少 1.20%；钢厂盈利率 35.93%，环比持平，同比减少 12.55%；日均 铁水产量 226.55 万吨，环比减少 2.65 万吨，同比减少 2.86 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日星期一 后市展望：港口铁矿石库存继续累库，铁水产量延续下降，供需双弱， 上周受偏强的商品市场情绪影响震荡反弹，铁矿中期预计以偏弱震荡为主。 单边：谨慎逢高轻仓偏空对待，若后市站稳 800 元/吨重要压力位，则 建议离场观望 （一）期货价格 （二） ...

地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 108.35 1.25 3.35 纽曼粉 792 1 13 847.7 98.55 -2.35 -0.50 15.01 PB粉 795 1 13 846.7 108.35 -0.15 2.90 -19.57 麦克粉 785 1 14 857.4 99.15 -1.25 1.45 27.04 金布巴 748 1 13 840.9 92.65 -1.55 0.80 32.37 主流 混合粉 738 0 16 876.8 95.75 -0.60 1.95 3.86 超特粉 677 -1 6 897.5 91.15 -0.70 1.85 -13.02 卡粉 874 2 9 807.2 120.05 -1.05 2.75 -34.84 巴西 巴混 830 -2 11 837.4 110.35 -0.95 2.15 -2.91 主流 巴粗IOC6 765 1 13 839.2 巴粗SSFG 770 1 13 乌克兰精粉 875 2 13 947.5 61%印粉 737 1 13 卡拉拉精粉 875 2 13 895.1 罗伊山粉 782 1 13 ...

期货 铁水下行叠加堆存成本上升,矿价延续区间调整 东证衍生品研究院黑色金属资深分析师：许惠敏 从业资格号 : F3081016 投资咨询号 : Z0016073 报告日期：2025年12月19日 铁矿石周度聚焦： 重点新闻及产业链动态 | 重点新闻 | | --- | | 钢厂动态 | | 【2025-12-18】 AMNS印度公司计划到2030年将钢铁产能提升至2500-2600万吨 （来源：我的钢铁网） | | 矿山动态 | | 【2025-12-16】 力拓联手合资伙伴投资1.91亿美元启动澳大利亚Rhodes Ridge铁矿可行性研究 （来源：我的钢铁网） | | 【2025-12-17】 巴西阿马帕州铁矿项目计划于2026年重启 （来源：我的钢铁网） | | 【2025-12-18】 澳洲矿企Genmin完成1700万美元融资，加速推进加蓬Baniaka铁矿项目 （来源：我的钢铁网） | | 【2025-12-19】 印度SAIL与卡林加公司签署28年Rowghat铁矿开采合同 强化原料供应链 （来源：我的钢铁网） | | 【2025-12-19】 美国矿业公司MagIron获得明尼苏达州首批赤铁矿 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国铁矿石行业市场全景评估及发展策略分析报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 近一年中国铁矿砂及其精矿进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年10月中国铁矿砂及其精矿进口数量为1.11亿吨，同比增长7.3%，进口金 额为111.93亿美元，同比增长14.2%。 ...

南华期货铁矿石周报 ——上有供给压制，下有铁水支撑 周甫翰 （投资咨询资格证号：Z0020173） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月20日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 【核心矛盾】 目前铁矿石价格仍区间运行，价格上方有高供给压制，下方有钢厂利润、铁水修复预期支撑，短期估值修 复后预计价格继续大幅上行空间不大。 【利多因素】 1.钢厂利润回升，产业链矛盾缩小 2.螺纹钢基本面有所好转，库存下降 【利空因素】 1. 铁矿石发运整体偏高，整体现货不缺 3.焦煤有止跌的迹象，对铁矿石价格的跷跷板支撑作用减弱 发运端，铁矿石发运环比增加，年底发运增量显著。年同比发运过剩量在加速上升，目前全年发运累计同 比增量在4500万吨，其中3300万吨来自于非主流矿。非主流矿发运在超季节性高位，目前成为了供给增量的 主力。铁矿石发运整体在高位，供给压力仍大，发运偏高对价格上方形成压制。 需求端，铁水产量继续环比下降。但是从未来检修数据看，预计铁水产量在未来1-2周见底。钢厂利润在减 产后回升，钢厂复产增产的驱动增加。五大材整体供需双弱，但产量下降大于库存下降的幅度，使得去库斜 率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decline in China's iron ore production, with a notable decrease in both monthly and cumulative output for the year 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. Industry Summary - As of October 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production reached 84.03 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [1]. - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of iron ore in China was 851.736 million tons, showing a cumulative decline of 3.2% [1]. Company Summary - Listed companies in the iron ore sector include Hebei Steel Resources (000923), Hainan Mining (601969), Jinling Mining (000655), Dazhong Mining (001203), Western Mining (601168), Ansteel (000898), Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825), Baotou Steel (600010), Benxi Steel (000761), and Jiugang Hongxing (600307) [1].

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20251219】铁矿年报：故事重点或在供给端 行情回顾 观点小结 供应 静态测算，25年1-11月中国进口铁矿呈现先减后增态势，同比增加876万吨（1.5%）至11.4亿吨， 全年或将达到12.49亿吨以上。澳巴地区矿山新增产能在四季度发运量上提现，预计2026年进口量继续 小幅增长1.1%。 2025年国内铁矿石累计产量预计达到2.95亿吨同比下滑0.71%，4季度安全环保压力减轻，产量回升，26 年国产精粉预计同比增+2%。 铁矿石定价基准由62%铁品位下降至61%，定价体系或将调整。 2026年总供给同比增加1.3%至15.44亿吨。 需求 国内：25年房地产降幅减缓，基建同比正增长，制造业持续向好；测算铁矿全年需求量14.98亿 吨，同比增5997万吨(+4.23%)，预计26年铁矿全年需求保持平稳，变化较小。 海外：预计2026年海外主流铁矿进口国家的生铁产量略有下滑，印度、美国钢铁需求则持续向好。 库存 25年12月初45港库存1.54亿吨，25年矿山产能前期增幅缓慢，四季度开始放量；但需求增长韧性十 足，铁水呈现"淡季不淡"的特征，随着 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：证券市场周刊市场号 文 |牛犇 本周，A股触底反弹，沪指逼近3900点整数关口。 结合时间节点看，A股市场即将迎接传统的"春季躁动"行情。业内人士也有观点指出，本轮的"春季躁 动"行情有可能提前在12月下旬开始。 "春季躁动"窗口来临 近期，A股市场持续震荡反弹，大有新一轮行情重启的架势。最典型的指数是上证指数，自12月16日触 底以来，已连续录得三根阳线（见附图）。 对此，笔者在上周末已进行了重要提醒，指数在技术上已出现止跌反弹的信号，并梳理出了消费、AI 产业链、"反内卷"这三条主线以及核心相关标的，感兴趣的可点击链接：《A股下周将有大动作！三大 主线+多只上涨股曝光》。 其实，在技术面之外，A股当下也已进入布局"春季躁动"行情的窗口期。 所谓"春季躁动"，是A股市场在每年春节前后至两会期间常见的一轮上涨行情，属于典型的日历效应。 因为一般在这个时点，市场都会迎来众多核心驱动因素，如岁末年初，市场流动性往往较为宽松，机构 资金为布局新一年行情而进行再配置；年初通常是政策的密集发布期，中央经济工作会议为全年经济定 调，各类产业扶 ...