研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 775.5 | 782.5 | -7.0 | I01-I05 | 19.5 | 22.0 | -2.5 | | DCE05 | 756.0 | 760.5 | -4.5 | I05-I09 | 20.5 | 20.0 | 0.5 | | DCE09 | 735.5 | 740.5 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | -40.0 | -42.0 | 2.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 783 | 797 | -14 | 853 | 62 | 84 | 104 | | 纽曼粉 | 785 | 800 | -15 | 850 | 60 | 82 | 102 | | 麦克粉 | 786 | 796 | -10 | 853 | 62 | 84 | 104 | | 金布巴粉(60.5%) | ...

| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月4日 | 网材产业期现日报 | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 削值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | O | 111 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3320 | -10 | 231 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3145 | 3166 | -21 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3168 | 3189 | -21 | 52 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3079 | 3106 | -27 | 141 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3310 | 3330 | -20 | 15 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3250 | -20 | -୧2 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3310 | ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the forecast period [4]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the lithium concentrate production from two operational projects decreased by 5% to 137,000 tons, while the sales volume increased by 5% to 142,000 tons. The average selling price for lithium concentrate was $849 per ton, reflecting a 31% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The recovery rates and capacity optimization projects at Mt Marion and Wodgina have been successfully completed, with Wodgina achieving an average recovery rate of 67% [1]. - The report highlights significant improvements in production and sales volumes for lithium concentrate, with Mt Marion's production increasing by 18% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year, while Wodgina's production also showed positive growth [2][5]. Summary by Sections Lithium Mining - **Overall Performance**: In Q3 2025, the total lithium concentrate production was 137,000 tons, with a weighted average selling price of $849 per ton, up 31% from the previous quarter [1]. - **Mt Marion**: The total material moved decreased by 46%, while ore mined increased by 58%. The average recovery rate was 59%, and the average selling price was $797 per ton, up 31% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - **Wodgina**: The total material moved decreased by 12%, with ore mined increasing by 15%. The average selling price for lithium concentrate was $881 per ton, reflecting a 31% increase [3][5]. Iron Ore - **Onslow Iron**: The quarterly production was 8.445 million tons, a 37% increase quarter-on-quarter, with an average selling price of $92 per ton [7]. - **Pilbara Hub**: The quarterly production was 2.419 million tons, a 12% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with an average selling price of $87 per ton [8]. Financial Overview - As of September 30, 2025, the company's liquidity and net debt remained stable at 1.1 billion AUD and 5.4 billion AUD, respectively. The capital expenditure for the quarter was approximately 400 million AUD, consistent with previous expectations [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron ore: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal coal: No specific rating provided [7] 2. Core Views - Steel prices are oscillating due to fluctuating macro - sentiment. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and demand expectations are cautious. Hot - rolled coil inventory is decreasing, but it's also high year - on - year [1]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating downward. The arrival volume at ports has significantly increased, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure as steel mills cut production due to losses [3]. - Coking coal and coke are oscillating. Coking coal supply is tight, while demand has improved. Coke production has increased, but downstream steel mills purchase on a just - in - time basis due to compressed profits [5][6]. - Thermal coal prices are oscillating strongly in the short term due to the situation at production areas. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main contract of rebar closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3295 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading of steel was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9800 tons. The trading volume in the East China region increased significantly, while that in the North decreased [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and with the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is continuously decreasing, and the pace of destocking is accelerating, but the inventory is still high year - on - year [1]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - commodity: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated downward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined weakly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The total trading volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 1.293 million tons, a 62.44% increase from the previous day; the total trading volume of forward - looking spot was 965000 tons, a 35.15% increase from the previous day. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, with a total shipment volume of 3.2138 billion tons, a 5.15% decrease from the previous period. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly, with a total arrival volume of 3.2184 billion tons, a 58.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The arrival volume of iron ore at ports increased significantly this week. The overall valuation of iron ore is neutral, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure. As steel mills cut production due to losses, the resilience of iron ore demand has weakened, and prices face correction pressure [3]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - commodity: None [4] - Futures - spot: None [4] - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The coking coal and coke futures market showed a pattern of mixed gains and losses and oscillating consolidation. The customs clearance volume of imported coal increased slightly, and traders were optimistic about the market and were reluctant to lower prices, with the overall trading atmosphere improving [5]. - Logic and views: For coking coal, safety inspections are being carried out in some domestic production areas, and the customs clearance of imported coal is continuously recovering, but the overall supply is still tight. On the demand side, a new round of price increases for coke is imminent, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm has improved compared with before. For coke, the profits of coking enterprises have improved, and production has increased. On the demand side, downstream steel mills' profits are compressed, and they mainly purchase on a just - in - time basis [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Sideways [6] - Coke: Sideways [6] - Inter - period: None [6] - Inter - commodity: None [6] - Futures - spot: None [6] - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: At production areas, coal prices are strong. Supply in some areas has shrunk due to safety inspections. The inventory level in Inner Mongolia is not high, and miners are optimistic about the future. The transportation by platform traders has improved, and the number of coal - pulling trucks at some mines with large previous price drops has increased. At ports, although prices have increased, the increase is smaller than that at mines, and traders' expectations are divided. Affected by the decrease in shipments and the increase in production - area prices, traders' quotes have increased, and some are reluctant to sell, while others think the price increase will be limited. Downstream users mainly purchase under long - term contracts and are resistant to high - priced coal. Currently, port inventory is low, with a large year - on - year decrease, and the shipment to ports is slow, so prices are unlikely to decline in the short term. For imports, the price support for imported coal is strong, and rainfall in Indonesia still affects shipments. At the beginning of the month, the imported coal market was stable, and demand was mainly for刚需 [7]. - Demand and logic: Affected by production areas, prices will oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. Strategy - None [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent stock performance and financial metrics of Jining Mining, indicating a decline in stock price and significant trading activity [1] - As of November 4, Jining Mining's stock price decreased by 2.08% to 9.87 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 5.876 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Jining Mining's stock has increased by 64.77%, but it has seen a decline of 3.89% over the last five trading days [1] Group 2 - Jining Mining, established on September 28, 1996, primarily engages in iron ore mining and the production and sale of iron concentrate, copper concentrate, cobalt concentrate, and pellet ore [2] - The company's revenue composition includes 76.99% from iron concentrate, 9.03% from pellets, 8.46% from other sources, 5.10% from copper concentrate, and 0.41% from mechanical processing [2] - As of October 31, the number of shareholders increased to 41,100, with an average of 14,491 circulating shares per shareholder [2] Group 3 - Jining Mining has distributed a total of 638 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 238 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, notable institutional shareholders include Huaxia Excellence Growth Mixed Fund and Guotai Zhongzheng Steel ETF, both of which are new shareholders [3]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月04日08时23分 报告导读： 随着中美在经贸关键议题上的共识落地 ，期货价格出现回落。供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求继续回升 ，螺纹产量有回升但总库存下降速 度偏慢。热卷的库存在大幅回升后已经远高于同期水平 。焦煤和焦炭现货偏强运行，对成本构成一定支撑。不过，由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费 高峰期即将过去，未来钢厂预计将压减产量从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价突破了上方 10 日均线的压制后有所回调，后市大概率将转为震荡。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，回调后可逢低做多。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3079 | -27 | -0.87% | -21 | -0.68% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3295 | - ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoint - No core viewpoint information is provided in the report. Group 3: Summary of Different Categories Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 785, down 15 daily and 4 weekly; PB powder is 788, down 15 daily and 4 weekly; Mac powder is 786, down 9 daily and 1 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 740, down 12 daily and 20 weekly; Mixed powder is 748, down 14 daily and 9 weekly; Super special powder is 692, down 16 daily and 17 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 775, down 15 daily and 4 weekly [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian blend is 824, down 16 daily and 5 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 790, down 15 daily and 3 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 795, down 15 daily and 3 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is 895, down 15 daily and 16 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 729, down 12 daily and 20 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 627, down 16 daily and 17 weekly; Atlas powder is 743, down 14 daily and 9 weekly; KUMBA powder is 847, down 15 daily and 4 weekly; Carara concentrate powder is 895, down 15 daily and 16 weekly [1]. - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 1026, down 10 daily and 1 weekly [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is 782.5, down 17.5 daily and 4 weekly; i2605 is 760.5, down 16 daily and 3 weekly; i2609 is 740.5, down 14.5 daily and 2 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 103.00, down 0.35 daily and up 2.30 weekly; FE05 is 100.65, down 0.36 daily and up 2.11 weekly; FE09 is 98.55, down 0.41 daily and up 2.01 weekly [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily data of iron ore futures and spot markets on November 3, 2025, including price changes, basis, spreads, import profits, and other information. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: DCE01 was 782.5, down 17.5 from yesterday; DCE05 was 760.5, down 16.0; DCE09 was 740.5, down 14.5 [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: I01 - I05 was 22.0, down 1.5; I05 - I09 was 20.0, down 1.5; I09 - I01 was - 42.0, up 3.0 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: PB powder (60.8%) was 797, down 1; Newman powder was 800, down 2; etc. [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the optimal delivery product (McFadden powder) for 01 contract was 56, 79 for 05 contract, and 101 for 09 contract [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread of Carajás powder - PB powder was 110, down 5; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder was 48, up 1; etc. [2]. - **Import Profits**: The import profit of Carajás powder was 9, up 1; Newman powder was 6, down 2; etc. [2]. Indexes - **Platts Indexes**: The price of Platts 62% iron ore was 107.4, down 0.3; 65% was 120.7, down 0.5; 58% was 95.7, down 0.6 [2]. - **Internal - External US Dollar Spreads**: SGX main - DCE01 was 8.0, up 0.2; SGX main - DCE05 was 10.9, up 0.2; SGX main - DCE09 was 13.7, up 0.3 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply has a growth expectation, while demand continues to weaken under the suppression of steel enterprises' profits, and the overall fundamentals are relatively weak, leading to a weakening trend in iron ore prices. The current iron ore futures price fluctuates within the previous trading range, and it is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel enterprises' profits and the support level of the lower limit of the previous trading range. Considering that the current rebar - iron ore ratio is at a historically low level, one can consider the arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" to increase the rebar - iron ore ratio [4][6][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Iron ore futures main contract**: In October, the iron ore futures 2601 contract showed a wide - range volatile trend. It opened at 782.0 yuan/ton on October 9, then quickly declined, reached the monthly low of 760.0 yuan/ton on October 21, and then rebounded rapidly, hitting the monthly high of 810.5 yuan/ton on October 30. As of the close on October 31, it rose 19.5 yuan/ton or 2.50% from the September 30 closing price of 780.5 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton [5][12][13]. - **Rebar - iron ore ratio**: In October, the rebar - iron ore ratio (rebar main futures price / iron ore main futures price) generally showed a trend of "slight decline - volatile increase - decline again". It started to decline slightly from 3.9165 on October 9, reached the monthly low (also the lowest level in the past 10 years for the main contract ratio) of 3.8322 on October 13, then rose rapidly to the monthly high of 3.9700 on October 20, and then declined again. As of October 31, the ratio was 3.8825, down 0.0340 from the beginning of the month [15][16]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Analysis 3.2.1 International Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino - US tariff game**: Before the end of September, the Sino - US trade situation was generally easing, and a preliminary agreement was reached on the TikTok issue. However, in early October, the game between the two sides escalated unexpectedly. The US introduced a series of measures, and China counterattacked. In the middle of the month, the US attitude softened, and the two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations. At the end of the month, the two heads of state met in Busan, South Korea, and reached consensus on multiple issues. Although the negotiation results sent positive signals, the market weakened after the positive news was realized [18][20][21]. - **Fed's interest rate decision**: On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which was in line with market expectations, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. After the meeting, Powell's statement was interpreted as slightly hawkish, and the probability of a December interest rate cut declined, causing short - term fluctuations in gold and US stocks [22]. 3.2.2 Domestic Real Estate Analysis - **Sales data**: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales area and sales volume were - 5.5% and - 7.9% respectively, with the decline further expanding compared to the previous month. In September, the year - on - year decline of the second - hand housing sales price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued, with the decline in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities narrowing by 0.3, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to August [23][24]. - **Investment data**: From January to September, the national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month, reaching the second - lowest level since March 2020. The decline in September further widened from 19.5% in August to 21.3%. The enthusiasm of real estate enterprises for development remained low, and the improvement of the real estate investment side still required a long wait [24]. 3.3 Fundamental Factor Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Imported ore**: In October, the iron ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly. As the end of the year approaches, the subsequent shipment volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The arrival volume in November is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing a trend of low in the front and high in the back. The combined shipment volume of Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks was 109.784 million tons, a 3.78% increase compared to the previous four - week period [31][32]. - **Domestic ore**: Since the beginning of the year, the domestic iron ore production has decreased year - on - year, but the decline has gradually narrowed. In October, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate first decreased and then increased, and it is expected to hover around 60% in the future. The 1 - 9 domestic iron ore production was 761 million tons, a 2.55% year - on - year decrease, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to January - August [35]. 3.3.2 Inventory Side - **Port inventory**: As of October 31, the 45 - port inventory was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 1.1889 million tons compared to the previous week. The port inventory has accumulated this month, mainly due to the slight increase in arrival volume and downstream production cuts. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [36]. - **Steel enterprise inventory**: As of the week of October 31, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory for steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the previous week. After the holiday consumption, the steel mill inventory has returned to the original level of about 20 - 21 days, and the market has returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand [46]. 3.3.3 Demand Side - **Production indicators**: As of October 31, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points compared to the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points compared to the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared to the previous week. In October, these indicators continued to decline, and the decline accelerated at the end of the month [47]. - **Steel product data**: The actual weekly output of the five major steel products in the week of October 31 increased by 99,700 tons compared to the previous week, and the consumption volume also increased. However, this data deviated from the hot metal data, and the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed. Considering the cold weather, the demand for construction steel may be suppressed [55][58]. 3.3.4 Steel Enterprise Profitability - **Profit rate**: As of the week of October 31, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous week, and more than half of the sample enterprises were in a loss state [64]. - **Tons of steel profit**: In October, the average profits of rebar blast furnace, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and rebar electric furnace decreased by 64.79, 106.93, 69.52, and 13.08 yuan/ton respectively compared to September, and all were in a loss state. The loss of rebar electric furnace was the largest, but there were signs of stabilization recently [64]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrival volume has increased after two weeks of low levels. It is expected that the shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level, and the arrival volume in November will fluctuate at a relatively high level. The first - ship iron ore from Simandou in Guinea is expected to be shipped in November, which may suppress the price of far - month iron ore contracts [68]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output continues to decline, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits. More than half of the steel enterprises are in a loss state, and it is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline. The production and demand of the five major steel products have recovered, but the sustainability needs to be observed, and the demand for construction steel may be affected by the cold weather [68]. - **Inventory**: Steel mills are back in the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the available days of inventory at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [68]. - **Market strategy**: The overall fundamentals are relatively weak, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak. The current iron ore futures price lacks a clear trading logic and fluctuates within the previous range. One can observe the improvement of steel enterprises' profits and the support level of the lower limit of the previous range. Considering the low rebar - iron ore ratio, one can consider the arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" [69].

黑色金属月报-铁矿 供应增量释放遇阻需求韧性 矿价区间震荡 2025年11月3日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999; TEL：010-82292661 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 供应增量释放遇阻需求韧性 矿价区间震荡 10月铁矿石价格震荡偏强，主流现货价格月度涨幅在2-25元不等。具体来看，卡粉（-5），PB粉（+25），BRBF （+25），金布巴 （+4），超特粉（+2），mac（+27）。块矿方面，PB块（+4） ，纽曼块（+4），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（+4）。普氏62%指数方面， 截至10月31日，普氏指数收于107.4美元，月环比回升3.5美元，目前按汇率7.11折算人民币大致在888元左右。仓单方面，截止10月31 日，最优交割品为NM粉，目前最新报价在800元/吨左右，折算仓单（厂库）为827元/吨左右，除NM粉之外，次优交割品为pb粉。 库存方面：中国47港铁矿石库存环比累库，低于去年同期。截止目前，47港铁矿石库存总量15272.93万吨，环比累库163万吨，较 年初去库338万吨,比去年同期库存低736万吨。 ...