投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局在变，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，矿石终端消耗小幅回升，叠加节前钢厂补库，需求表现尚可，给予矿 价支撑，但下游钢市矛盾在累积，且钢材利润持续收缩，矿石需求韧性趋弱。相反，国内港口到货环 比下降，但海外矿商发运则是大增并创下年内单周新高，海外供应显著回升，而内矿供应也在恢复， 矿石供应 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate weakly. Although the global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry and indirectly boost steel demand in the long - term, currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and steel prices may still decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [2]. - The supply of iron ore has increased, with overseas shipments reaching a high level in the same period. Although the demand for iron ore remains strong in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate as the profitability of steel mills has been decreasing [5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a range - bound pattern, and the operation difficulty is high. From a fundamental perspective, they are likely to follow the trend of the black sector, and the operation cost - effectiveness is relatively low [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Although there is some support from the demand side, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand still exist. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policies, and the inventory reduction space of the whole industry is limited [14][17]. - The glass market shows a differentiated trend, with supply slightly increasing and inventory decreasing marginally. However, terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The demand for soda ash is average, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [20][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.66%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14137 tons, and the position increased by 36313 lots. In the spot market, the prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The demand for rebar is weak even in the traditional peak season. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3354 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 13892 tons, and the position increased by 20862 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Although hot - rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. The inventory has slightly increased, and steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively restored [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 800.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.56% (- 4.50), and the position decreased by 936 lots to 53.35 million lots. The weighted position was 84.20 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.02% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply of iron ore has increased, with the shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all rising. The demand is strong in the short - term, but the profitability of steel mills has been decreasing. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Silicomanganese - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SM601) of silicomanganese closed down 0.33% at 5970 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of silicomanganese is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the resistance near 6000 yuan/ton and the support between 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [9]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SF511) of ferrosilicon closed down 0.17% at 5756 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a discount of 6 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of ferrosilicon is also in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the resistance near 5800 yuan/ton and the support between 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8905 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 60). The weighted position increased by 5945 lots to 516168 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 195 yuan/ton and - 105 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Although the demand from downstream polysilicon and silicone DMC has increased, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand still exist. Attention should be paid to the progress of capacity reduction and the resumption of production on the supply side [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 53205 yuan/ton, down 0.53% (- 285). The weighted position decreased by 5951 lots to 283593 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.1 yuan/kg, and 52.6 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 605 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policies. The supply is close to the high level in the same period, and the inventory reduction space of the whole industry is limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of capacity integration and downstream price transfer [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of glass closed at 1208 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 2.11% (- 26). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1140 yuan respectively, with the former remaining unchanged and the latter increasing by 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 67.5 million cases (- 1.10%). The atmosphere in the market was bearish [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The spot market shows a differentiated trend. The supply has slightly increased, and the inventory has decreased marginally due to pre - holiday stocking. However, terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1306 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 2.10% (- 28). The price in Shahe decreased by 23 yuan to 1216 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 4.19 million tons (- 1.10%), including a decrease of 2.84 million tons in heavy - soda ash inventory and 1.35 million tons in light - soda ash inventory. The atmosphere in the market was bullish [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The demand for soda ash is average, and the orders before the National Day have increased, but the transaction is still based on rigid demand. The market lacks substantial positive support and is expected to fluctuate narrowly [22].

2020-2025年1-7月中国铁矿石原矿产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：河钢资源（000923）,海南矿业（601969）,金岭矿业（000655）,大中矿业（001203）,西部矿 业（601168）,鞍钢股份（000898）,太钢不锈（000825）,包钢股份（600010）,本钢板材（000761）,酒 钢宏兴（600307） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国铁矿石行业市场全景评估及发展策略分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年7月中国铁矿石原矿产量为8633万吨，同比增长21.8%；2025年1-7月 中国铁矿石原矿累计产量为59591.4万吨，累计下降5.4%。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求表现尚可，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，矿石终端消耗如期回升，且假期钢厂补库，需求表现尚可，继续给予 矿价支撑，需注意的钢市矛盾在累积，需求韧性料将趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽回落，但 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. With the shrinking market trading volume, short - term indices face adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea of buying on dips is still the main strategy [3]. - In the bond market, considering the slowdown of economic data in August, the expected easing of funds, and the need to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term [5]. - For precious metals, although the Fed's interest - rate meeting was not as dovish as expected, the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on the upward price potential of silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate, zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel is recommended to be bought on dips in the long - term [9][11][13]. - In the black building materials sector, although the black sector is currently under pressure from weak actual demand, with the possible implementation of overseas fiscal and monetary policies and the opening of China's policy space, it may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, with the key point around mid - October [28]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the views on different products vary. For example, crude oil is recommended for long - positions, while PVC is recommended for short - positions [41][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the strategies for different products also differ. For example, for pigs, pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound; for sugar, maintain a bearish view [54][62]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance Stock Index - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on relevant standards for intelligent connected vehicles. CATL's sodium - new batteries will be supplied in batches next year. Dongshan Precision said the supply of optical chips is tight [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [2]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [4]. - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected easing of funds, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, but pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the statement was not as dovish as expected, and precious metal prices were under short - term pressure [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Powell's statement on monetary policy was neutral. The voting pattern of the interest - rate meeting implies a change in the probability of the new Fed chairman. The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on silver [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, copper prices adjusted. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy was less loose than expected, but there are some disturbances in the overseas copper mine industry. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to oscillate [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and domestic inventories increased [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's statement was cautious, but the downstream is in the traditional consumption season, and aluminum prices are expected to be supported [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed different trends in the domestic and overseas markets. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and processing fees were differentiated [11]. - **Outlook**: The zinc market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and if the zinc ingot export window opens, domestic zinc prices may rise [11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventories increased slowly, and the TC decreased. The inventory of lead batteries decreased [12]. - **Outlook**: With the improvement of industrial data and market sentiment, lead prices are expected to break through the oscillation range and be strong in the short - term [12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron was supported [13]. - **Outlook**: Although refined nickel inventories are under pressure, in the long - term, nickel prices are expected to be supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was slow to recover, and the inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [14][15]. - **Outlook**: With a significant decrease in supply and a marginal improvement in demand, tin prices are expected to be strong and oscillate [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium increased slightly, and the futures price also rose [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental improvement of carbonate lithium has been reflected in the price. Pay attention to industrial information and the impact of the Fed's policy [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index declined, and the import window opened [17]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market is expected to be in a state of over - capacity in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's policy [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the weak demand in the real estate industry, the overall market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined slightly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Outlook**: Although the peak season characteristics are not obvious, the cost is strongly supported, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and the supply and demand situation changed [23][24]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot prices were stable [27]. - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was supported. The inventory remained high. It is recommended to pay attention to industry policies [30][31]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. The supply was close to the same - period high, and the inventory transfer was limited. Pay attention to capacity integration policies [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: The supply of rubber may be affected by weather, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. The inventory decreased [35][36]. - **Outlook**: Adopt a long - position approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The U.S. EIA data showed changes in inventory [40]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a long - position approach for crude oil, as the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium returns, prices may rise [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the spot price declined. The inventory was high, and the demand was expected to improve [42]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spreads [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was rising, and the demand was weak [43]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the inventory is decreasing [44][45]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [46]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations due to policy sentiment [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was stable [47]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The supply was affected by unexpected maintenance, and the demand was stable [49]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the improvement of the terminal and raw - material maintenance [49]. p - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The load was high, and the downstream PTA load was low [50]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the recovery of the terminal [50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was decreasing, and the demand was expected to increase [51]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure was high, and the demand was gradually recovering [52]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [52]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices declined, and the supply was expected to be high in September [54]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply was stable [55]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long - positions in the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices declined slightly. The inventory was at a high level [56][57]. - **Outlook**: The soybean import cost is expected to be weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range, waiting for a driving factor [58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data showed changes. Domestic oil prices declined [59]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats are expected to be strong and oscillate in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [61][62]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a bearish view on sugar prices, and pay attention to the Brazilian production [62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and the spot price rose slightly. The downstream operating rate increased, and the inventory was low [63][64]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 09 月 17 日 1/ 5 大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 804.5 | 803.5 | 1.0 | I01-I05 | 22.0 | 21.5 | 0.5 | | DCE05 | 782.5 | 782.0 | 0.5 | I05-I09 | 19.0 | 19.5 | -0.5 | | DCE09 | 763.5 | 762.5 | 1.0 | I09-I01 | -41.0 | -41.0 | 0.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 785 | 776 | 9 | 855 | 43 | 65 | 84 | | 纽曼粉 | 793 | 786 | 7 | 849 | 37 | 59 | 78 | | 麦克粉 | 785 | 776 | 9 | 85 ...

铁矿石产业链日报 2025/9/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 804.50 | +1.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 534,465 | +2092↑ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 22 | +0.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -33449 | +2583↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,800.00 | -100.00↓ | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 105.9 | -0.27↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 862 | -5↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 849 | -5↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 768 | -3↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 44 | -6↓ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 1 ...

1. Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The steel market is currently influenced by weak steel demand and expectations of a contraction in coal supply. The seasonal recovery of apparent demand in the later period will lead to a convergence of the supply - demand gap and a moderate inventory accumulation pressure. However, the apparent demand in the fourth quarter is not expected to exceed the current production level, and the demand outlook remains weak. Supported by the high - level production of steel mills from September to October and the supply - side expectations of coal, raw material prices are resilient, which supports steel prices. With the influence of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking, prices are expected to repair upwards, and short - term long positions can be attempted. Pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. The upper pressure levels for rebar are around 3350 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coils around 3500 yuan/ton [1]. Summary of Related Contents Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in the South China region increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 36 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices changed, with steel billet prices increasing by 20 yuan/ton. The cost of steel production fluctuated, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profit of rebar in the South China region increased by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 5.1% to 240.6 tons, and the production of the five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 857.2 tons. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 0.9% to 1514.6 tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.0%, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products increased by 1.9%. However, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.0%, while that for hot - rolled coils increased by 6.8% [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a volatile upward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipping volume rebounded significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, after the end of major events, the pig iron output rebounded significantly last week, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season. The raw materials were stronger than the finished products. In terms of inventory, the port inventory increased slightly, the port clearance volume increased month - on - month, and the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased month - on - month. Looking ahead, due to the still high profitability of steel mills, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year supports iron ore prices. The iron ore market is currently in a tight - balanced pattern. It is recommended to take a long position on the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices and engage in arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary of Related Contents Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, while the 01 contract basis of various varieties decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.1% [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 3.5%, and the global shipping volume increased by 29.6%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%, and the port clearance volume increased by 4.2%. The monthly production of pig iron and crude steel decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3%, the inventory of imported ores of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the available days of inventory of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8% [4]. 3. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View As of the previous day's close, the coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. For coke, the second - round price cut by steel mills on the spot market has been implemented, but the third - round price cut is difficult. The supply side has resumed production rapidly, and the demand side is still supported by the rebound of iron - making water. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. For coking coal, the spot auction price is stable with a weak trend, and the downstream purchase intention has recovered. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to take a long position on the coke 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1650 - 1800), take a long position on the coking coal 2601 contract at low prices (range reference: 1070 - 1300), and engage in arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke, while paying attention to risks due to large market fluctuations [6]. Summary of Related Contents Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices increased, with the 01 contract of coke increasing by 2.8% and the 01 contract of coking coal increasing by 4.5%. The basis and spreads of different contracts changed [6]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.8%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 5.1%. The iron - making water output increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal was supported [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.2%, and the coking coal inventory of different sectors changed, with some sectors de - stocking and some sectors slightly increasing inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Steel**: Due to stricter production restrictions in Tangshan, the steel price center has shifted upwards. Although there are increased fundamental contradictions and price pressure in the building materials sector under inventory pressure, the plate demand remains resilient, and the price is relatively strong. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut and expectations of domestic policy intensification, as well as the stimulation of anti - involution policies and pre - holiday stockpiling expectations, steel prices are showing strength [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holidays, the sentiment is positive, and iron ore prices are oscillating upwards. The global shipment of iron ore has increased significantly this week, and the demand is high with a substantial rebound in hot metal production. Considering the pre - holiday stockpiling demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coke production is restricted, and the prices of coking coal and coke have risen significantly. The second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. For coking coal, some over - producing mines in Inner Mongolia have been shut down. With the release of downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand and expectations of Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic policies, it is expected that coking coal and coke will be oscillating strongly in the short term [5][6]. - **Steam Coal**: Due to pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream users, the coal price continues to rise. The supply in the production areas is recovering slowly, and the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, but the non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated upwards. The overall spot trading was average, with better low - price trading and weaker trading after price increases. Most regional basis shrank, and there was basis trading in some areas. The national building materials trading volume was 11050 tons. Due to poor air quality in Tangshan, some steel mills took blast furnace stoking measures [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Under the current inventory pressure, the fundamental contradictions in building materials have increased, and the price is under pressure. The plate demand remains resilient, and the fundamentals are stable with a relatively strong price. Attention should be paid to the improvement in demand. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, there are stronger expectations of domestic policy intensification, and the steel price is showing strength under the stimulation of anti - involution policies and pre - holiday stockpiling expectations [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated upwards. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports were strong. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore in the national main ports was 1.394 million tons, a 45.21% increase from the previous day. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.23 million tons (10 transactions), a 31.86% decrease from the previous day (with a mine transaction volume of 36000 tons). Tangshan required some steel mills to limit sintering production, which will affect iron ore consumption in the short term [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In terms of supply, the global shipment of iron ore has increased significantly this week. In terms of demand, hot metal production has rebounded substantially, and the demand for iron ore is high. Considering the pre - holiday stockpiling demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating cargo volume on port arrivals and the steel mills' pre - holiday stockpiling rhythm [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main futures contracts of coking coal and coke rose significantly. In the spot market, the second - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a cumulative decrease of 100 - 110 yuan/ton, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. For coking coal, some over - producing mines in Inner Mongolia have been shut down and punished. The port market sentiment is positive, with rising upstream quotes, but the overall downstream demand is weak. The import coal trading activity is high. Tangshan's meeting required local coking enterprises to extend the coking time by 30%, which will suppress coke consumption in the short term [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, with the continuous increase in finished - product prices, steel mills' profits have expanded, and production enthusiasm has improved, maintaining rigid demand. For coking coal, the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand has been released, and coking coal inventory has been continuously reduced. With expectations of Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic policies, it is expected that coking coal and coke will be oscillating strongly in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is to oscillate strongly. There are no cross - period, cross - variety, basis trading, or option strategies [6]. Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the coal prices in the main production areas continue to rise, and the demand from terminal customers such as chemical and cement industries is good. Some downstream customers still have pre - holiday stockpiling plans. In the port market, the sentiment is positive, with rising upstream quotes and a small amount of downstream inquiry demand. Some traders are more reluctant to sell due to shipping cost support and tight resources, and the quotes of some high - quality coal varieties have increased. In terms of imports, the decline in domestic coal prices has narrowed, the price of imported high - calorie coal is basically stable, and the price of low - calorie coal has rebounded, resulting in a narrowing of the price difference between domestic and imported coal [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production areas is recovering slowly, and the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, but the non - power coal demand remains strong. In the short term, the price will oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to the consumption and stockpiling of non - power coal [7].