Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, TC prices are continuously declining, and smelter maintenance is increasing. On the demand side, dealer inventory depletion is slow, purchasing意愿 is low, and some enterprises' finished - product inventories are accumulating. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles and Middle - East tariff policies in September, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a trading range between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On September 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.09 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On September 4, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,865 yuan/ton, closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 25,910 lots, a decrease of 4,432 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 50,042 lots, a decrease of 596 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,835 yuan/ton and 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,890 yuan/ton and closed at 16,870 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The lead market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply is affected by falling TC prices and increased smelter maintenance. Demand is weak as dealers have slow inventory depletion and low purchasing意愿, and some enterprises have accumulated finished - product inventories [3] Inventory Data - On September 4, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 4, the LME lead inventory was 251,200 tons, a decrease of 3,350 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term lead prices are expected to maintain range - bound trading, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and high inventory levels. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased 0.45% to 16,725 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price rose 0.60% to 16,880 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased 0.20% to 1,991 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2 Raw Materials - **Lead Concentrate**: The supply of lead concentrate remains tight. The forward supply of imported ore is expected to be tight, and the TC quotation is falling. Domestic ore TC adjustment is relatively stable, and smelters prefer domestic ore. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 90 US dollars/dry ton [3][27]. - **Scrap Batteries**: Due to poor terminal consumption, the recycling volume of scrap batteries is limited. As the production of secondary lead decreases, the demand for scrap batteries weakens, and the price of scrap batteries has slightly declined. As of August 29, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous period [3][41]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead has increased and decreased simultaneously, with overall relatively stable operation. The production rate of primary lead has increased to 68.33%. Some smelters have maintenance plans in September, which may lead to a reduction in production [28][33]. - **Secondary Lead**: Due to raw material restrictions and losses, the production rate of secondary lead has continued to decline. The production rate decreased 4.1 percentage points to 35.3%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of secondary lead was 39,600 tons, showing a decline [51]. 3.4 Demand Side - The terminal demand for lead - acid batteries has not improved. Dealers' inventories have accumulated, and lead - acid battery companies mainly produce based on sales, resulting in limited purchases of lead ingots. The production rate of lead - acid batteries decreased 1.05 percentage points to 70.59% [3][58]. 3.5 Transactions and Inventory - The price of secondary lead is inverted compared to electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead with higher cost - effectiveness. Recently, due to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit and military parade activities, vehicle transportation has been restricted, leading to an accumulation of lead ingot inventory at the production end. - As of August 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 67,100 tons, showing a slight decline. As of August 28, the factory inventory of primary lead's main delivery brands was 15,700 tons, showing an increase. As of August 29, SHFE refined lead inventory was 64,700 tons, showing an increase, and LME inventory was 259,550 tons, showing a decrease [76][79]. 3.6 Import and Export - As of August 22, the export of refined lead incurred a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of August 29, the import profit was - 381.05 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [67].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and characteristics of the convertible bond issued by Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd., which has a current trading price of 172.17 yuan per share and a conversion premium rate of 16.42% [1] - The convertible bond has a credit rating of "AA" and a maturity period of 6 years, with a coupon rate that increases annually from 0.10% to 2.00% [1] - The conversion price for the bond is set at 5.95 yuan, with the conversion period starting on February 17, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Group, established in 1957, and is a major player in the non-ferrous metal industry in China [2] - The company has been recognized as one of the "Top 500 Chinese Enterprises" and "Top 500 Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises," ranking 9th among the "Top 100 Enterprises in Henan" in 2023 [2] - For the first quarter of 2025, Yuguang Gold Lead reported a revenue of 10.3953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 228.8 million yuan, up 35.38% year-on-year [2] - As of July 2025, the shareholder base of Yuguang Gold Lead is highly dispersed, with 60,670 shareholders and an average holding of 17,970 shares per person [2]

Group 1 - The current spot lead market price ranges from 16,750 to 16,940 CNY/ton, with the average price reported at 16,890 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY from the previous day [1] - On August 26, the Shanghai Futures lead main contract closed at 16,930 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.50%, and a trading volume of 45,181 lots [2] - A major recycled lead smelting enterprise in East China is expected to suspend production in early September for equipment maintenance, potentially impacting recycled lead output by approximately 0.85 million tons [3] Group 2 - The copper crown gold source futures report indicates that the increase in maintenance at primary lead smelters and reduced production at recycled lead smelters due to tight raw materials may ease supply pressure, while social inventory continues to decline slightly [4] - Despite the slight increase in lead prices, current consumption improvements are not significant, and high inventory levels at LME may hinder sustained price increases, leading to a forecast of fluctuating prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is "Oscillation-based" [4] Core View of the Report - This week, the lead price showed a weak oscillation, closing at 16,780 yuan per ton. The domestic five - location lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, and the LME inventory was 273,000 tons. The price of waste lead - acid batteries decreased slightly, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises did not narrow. The lead price oscillated with a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. On Friday night, it broke through upwards driven by the market but then fell back due to insufficient driving force. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillation [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - This week, the lead price was weakly oscillating, closing at 16,780 yuan per ton. The domestic five - location lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, and the LME inventory was 273,000 tons [3] Industry Performance - Due to the oscillating lead price, the decline in the price of waste lead - acid batteries was limited. Most smelting enterprises settled at the pre - decline price. As of August 22, 2025, the theoretical comprehensive profit - and - loss value of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 445 yuan/ton, and that of small - and - medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 665 yuan/ton [3] Core Logic - This week, the lead price oscillated with continuous bull - bear games. On Friday night, it was driven by the market to break through upwards but then fell back. On the supply side, primary lead smelters were more willing to produce due to the expected peak demand season. Secondary lead smelters were still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw material waste batteries, so they sold at a firm price, and the overall operating rate remained stable at a low level. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead batteries this week was 71.64%, a significant improvement from last week. Domestic inventory oscillated, and LME inventory remained high. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillation [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to be flat, demand gradually increases, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 1,973.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars [3]. - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 96,382 lots, up 3,663 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,384 lots, down 433 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,903 tons, down 450 tons [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory was 282,950 tons, up 22,475 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 41.8 dollars/ton, up 2.2 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.25%, down 2.4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,300 tons, up 1,500 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 70 dollars/thousand tons, down 10 dollars; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons [3]. - The import volume of lead ore was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 10,108.93 yuan/ton, unchanged; the export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, down 425,000 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 2,041.35 points, up 21.34 points; the monthly output of automobiles was 2.51 million, down 298,600 [3]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million, up 73,000 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent will start meeting with 11 candidates for the Fed Chairman around September 1st; India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [3]. - Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman suggested allowing Fed staff to hold a small amount of cryptocurrencies [3]. - US Commerce Secretary Luttner confirmed that the government is seeking to acquire a 10% stake in Intel; SoftBank Group invested $2 billion in Intel [3]. - The White House is considering hosting a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit in Hungary [3]. - The US and Europe will immediately start providing security guarantees for Ukraine; Trump has ruled out sending ground troops to Ukraine but said air support is an option [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The production of some primary lead smelters has been adjusted due to price fluctuations, but the output still fluctuates slightly; the supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply is tight [3]. - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - acid battery field. Although approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [3]. - Inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and although the demand has not effectively reduced inventory, it is expected to gradually strengthen and support lead prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that China's lead production in June 2025 reached 629,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1] Production Trends - In late July, the lead price experienced a downward shift, leading to reduced production enthusiasm among electrolytic lead smelting enterprises. Some companies opted to cut production or delay the recovery of operations due to raw material shortages [1] - Unexpected maintenance in electrolytic lead smelting enterprises in Central China further contributed to a decline in lead production in July [1] Future Outlook - As of August, SMM reports that electrolytic lead smelting enterprises will gradually resume production after completing maintenance, with large enterprises in Central, Southwest, East, and North China expected to come back online [1] - A major lead recycling plant in Northwest China plans to halt production due to multiple factors including market downturn, raw material shortages, and water usage restrictions, marking a significant reduction in output for August [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the peak - season demand in batteries not being significantly evident. However, due to macro - factors, the non - ferrous metals sector is relatively strong. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,350 and 17,050 [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On August 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.24/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,675 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, the waste white - shell price remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the waste black - shell price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,475 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On August 18, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,810 yuan/ton, closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,595 lots, down 2,006 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 49,496 lots, down 1,711 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,750 - 16,835 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,790 yuan/ton, closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton. In Henan, suppliers offered at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 120 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with some offering at a 150 - yuan/ton discount. In Hunan, smelters offered at a 20 - 0 yuan/ton discount to the SMM1 lead price. Due to weak lead futures and increased social inventory after delivery, downstream demand was mainly for essential needs, and the spot market was quiet [2] Inventory - On August 18, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, down 70 tons from the previous week. As of August 18, the LME lead inventory was 260,475 tons, down 625 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are inconsistent, and market risk appetite lacks sustainability. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of a slight increase in supply but lower-than-expected demand. High inventory levels put pressure on lead prices, while the relatively stable supply-demand gap at the cost end provides support. There are few new contradictions in the short term, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the integer resistance level above remaining effective [4][9]. 3. Summary by Section Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16,845 | 16,850 | 5 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,003.5 | 1,981 | -22.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.41 | 8.51 | 0.10 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 62,334 | 64,844 | 2,510 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268,375 | 261,100 | -7,275 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 3.59 | 3.94 | 0.35 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | -150 | -155 | -5 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 declined under pressure last week. The price rebounded but was blocked by the integer resistance level and then fell, closing at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. LME lead first rose and then fell, closing at 1,981 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.12% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 15, the price of lead in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets showed a downward trend. The inventory of LME decreased, while the SHFE inventory and social inventory increased. The delivery of the current - month contract led to an increase in inventory [7]. Industry News - As of August 15, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged, while the average import ore processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous period [10]. - Some lead - smelting enterprises in Henan may face air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3, which may restrict vehicle transportation [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratios, inventory levels, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [12][13][15][18][19][21][23][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The lead market shows a situation of poor consumption and high finished - product inventory. The primary lead ore inventory remains tight with processing fees declining rapidly. The primary lead smelting profit is good, and the primary lead operating rate has increased again. The recycled lead raw materials are in short supply, and the recycled lead operating rate has slightly declined. The battery operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is weaker than that of the same period in previous years. The finished - product inventory of lead - acid batteries is at a historical high, and the terminal consumption pressure is large. The social inventory of lead ingots maintains a slow accumulation trend. The overall supply and demand of the industry are weak, and it is expected that lead prices will mainly operate weakly [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.43% at 16,849 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 99,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S rose 4 to $1,987.5/ton with a total position of 154,500 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,700 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 66,800 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 61,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 261,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 57,600 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - $40.87/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $64.3/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After exchange rate adjustment, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.18, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 579.41 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 401,000 tons, equivalent to 25.6 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 80 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 500 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 68.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 74,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 35,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 67.30% [11]. - **Industry Information**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan received a notice from relevant departments that the Ministry of Ecology and Environment is expected to launch air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3 according to air - quality conditions, which may restrict the transportation of some vehicles [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In June 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 118,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 31.7% and a month - on - month change of 13.6%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 669,400 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.6%. In June 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 126,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of - 7.5%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 847,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.6% [15]. - **Production**: In July 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 3.69% and a month - on - month change of 0.98%. From January to July, the total lead concentrate production was 941,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.41%. In June 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 121,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 740,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.0% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In June 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 274,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.3% and a month - on - month change of 3.1%. From January to June, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 1,527,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.9%. In May 2025, the global lead ore production was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 0.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.5%. From January to May, the total lead ore production was 1,863,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.5% [19]. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 401,000 tons, equivalent to 25.6 days [21]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 68.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead production was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total primary lead ingot production was 2,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 74,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 35,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. In July 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total recycled lead ingot production was 2,251,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37% [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In June 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 7,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 43.5% and a month - on - month change of - 22.1%. From January to June, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 43,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 448.2%. In June 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 622,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 3,862,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.3% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 67.30%. In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 624,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.0% and a month - on - month change of 4.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 3,826,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.5% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In June 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 18.2585 million pieces, and the net export weight of batteries was 99,200 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 62,000 tons, a year - on - year change of - 16.9% and a month - on - month change of - 5.0%. From January to June, the total net export of lead in batteries was 366,300 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 3.1% [41]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In July 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises decreased from 26 days to 21.8 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries of dealers increased from 39.9 days to 44.6 days [44]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles use lithium - iron - phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a surplus of 0 tons [62]. - **Overseas Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 21,400 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 35,700 tons [65]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 66,800 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 61,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton [70]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 261,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 57,600 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - $40.87/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $64.3/ton [73]. - **Cross - market Structure**: After exchange rate adjustment, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.18, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 579.41 yuan/ton [76]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead maintained a relatively high net short position. The net long position of investment funds in London Lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position perspective indicates a bearish trend [79].