大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 10 月 09 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 790.5 | 780.5 | 10.0 | I01-I05 | 19.5 | 21.0 | -1.5 | | DCE05 | 771.0 | 759.5 | 11.5 | I05-I09 | 20.5 | 19.0 | 1.5 | | DCE09 | 750.5 | 740.5 | 10.0 | I09-I01 | -40.0 | -40.0 | 0.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 770 | 771 | -1 | 839 | 50 | 71 | 90 | | 纽曼粉 | 774 | 775 | -1 | 834 | 46 | 67 | 86 | | 麦克粉 | 768 | 768 | 0 | 833 | 45 | 66 | ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market trends of various sectors during the National Day holiday in 2025, including macro - colored, energy and chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors. Most sectors show a complex situation of supply - demand imbalance, with some facing supply pressure and others having weak demand. Market trends are affected by factors such as policies, international macro - situations, and seasonal characteristics, and most sectors are expected to show short - term oscillatory trends [2][8][21]. Summary by Sector Macro - Colored Sector - **Stock Index**: A - share market showed strong growth before the holiday, up 6.7%, hitting a high since 1987. Policies are expected to attract incremental funds [2]. - **Copper**: International macro - situation fluctuates greatly due to the US government debt issue and political changes in other countries. Gold, silver, copper, and aluminum prices rise, while there are no major domestic changes [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the supply pressure is still large. Although LME zinc rebounds during the holiday, SHFE zinc is under pressure at high levels [3]. - **Lead**: LME lead fluctuates widely during the holiday. Domestic lead supply pressure increases, and demand in the peak season is not good, with a weak oscillatory trend expected [4]. - **Tin**: LME tin rises during the holiday. Supply is tight due to slow mine resumption in Myanmar and disruptions in Indonesia. The tight supply pattern is expected to continue until mid - month [5]. - **Gold and Silver**: Precious metals rise during the holiday, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and international macro - uncertainties. However, gold is in an overbought state [6]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **PTA**: Oil prices fall and then rebound during the holiday. PTA has low processing fees, weak cost support, and insufficient downstream demand, expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **MEG**: There are many changes in domestic and overseas devices. Supply pressure is large, and cost drive is poor, with prices expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are expected to oscillate weakly following raw materials, with limited processing fee improvement space [8][9]. - **Urea**: The market is weak during the holiday. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the market is expected to be under pressure [10]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market is stable during the holiday. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [11]. - **PVC**: There is a gap between policy expectations and fundamentals. Supply pressure is not relieved, demand is weak, and it is difficult to find positive factors [12]. - **Glass**: The market shows a trend of rising first and then falling. Supply may tighten, but demand is insufficient after the holiday, and fundamental positives are not sustainable [12][13]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is under pressure. The price lacks upward momentum in the long term [14]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure, but there is some support from alumina's demand expectations [15]. - **Rubber**: Typhoon may reduce supply, but terminal demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. - **PX**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on downstream demand and profit changes [16][17]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices fall before the holiday. Downstream demand is not as expected, and there is an over - supply expectation [18]. - **Styrene**: Prices fall before the holiday. The market is in a wide - balance state with a tendency to accumulate inventory, and the weak situation is difficult to change after the holiday [19]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: US cotton prices fall during the holiday. Domestic cotton purchase is stable, but demand is weak. Cotton prices are expected to have limited downward space after the holiday [21][22]. - **Sugar**: US raw sugar oscillates during the holiday. Production in some regions may increase, and Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but is under pressure [23]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rebound during the holiday. Domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - **Soybean Oil**: US soybean harvest begins. Domestic production and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [25]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil may enter the production - reduction season early. Supply and demand are both affected, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Rapeseed Products**: Canadian rapeseed imports decrease, and domestic rapeseed oil production increases with inventory reduction, expected to oscillate [26]. - **Corn and Starch**: US corn oscillates slightly. Domestic supply may be affected by weather, and demand is strong. Corn prices may first fall and then rise [27]. - **Hogs**: Pig prices are low, and the breeding loss expands. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [28]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are stable during the holiday. High存栏 may lead to price pressure after the holiday [28]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to seasonal factors, but downstream demand is weak [29]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills' profitability decreases, but production and demand show different trends. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The market shows a small increase. Supply is stable, and demand has support, focusing on supply and demand changes [31]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand change little, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is weak and stable during the holiday. Supply and demand are both stable, and the market is expected to oscillate after the holiday [31]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply exceeds expectations, demand may decrease, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [33]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are weak and stable. They are expected to oscillate within a range after the holiday [33].

Core Viewpoint - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index for September shows a continuous month-on-month increase, indicating optimistic business expectations and stable overall market performance [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Index - The commodity price index for September is 111.9 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with the growth rate compared to the previous month expanding by 0.5 percentage points [1]. - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 18 saw price increases in September, with notable rises in corrugated paper (6%), caustic soda (2.5%), and electrolytic copper (2.3%) [1]. Group 2: Industry Analysis - The increase in the non-ferrous metal price index is attributed to rising downstream demand from sectors like new energy and photovoltaics, as well as the commercialization of artificial intelligence across various fields [2]. - Conversely, the black metal and mineral price indices experienced a decline due to project construction delays caused by extreme weather conditions [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the traditional production peak in October, combined with effective government policies aimed at promoting growth, may lead to a continued stable and positive trend in the commodity market [4]. - However, challenges such as geopolitical tensions and trade disputes may hinder global economic recovery, necessitating further macroeconomic adjustments to stimulate innovation and unleash domestic demand [4].

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for September 2025 is reported at 111.9 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, indicating a stable overall operation in the commodity market [1][7] Price Index Overview - The non-ferrous price index rose to 131.8 points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [3] - The black metal price index decreased to 79.0 points, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3] Price Changes by Commodity - Among 50 monitored commodities, 18 saw price increases in September, with notable rises in corrugated paper (6%), caustic soda (2.5%), and electrolytic copper (2.3%) [6] - Conversely, carbon lithium, urea, and corn starch experienced the largest declines, with month-on-month decreases of 5.5%, 4.3%, and 3.3% respectively [6] Sector Analysis - The mineral price index showed low volatility at 70.4 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% [8] - The energy price index slightly declined to 98.0 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% [8] - The chemical price index continued its downward trend at 100.0 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% [8] Market Dynamics - Analysts noted that the recovery in demand during the peak season was generally below expectations, contributing to the fluctuations in the mineral price index [9] - The energy price index's decline was attributed to reduced gasoline demand post-summer and adverse weather affecting construction projects [9] - The chemical sector faced pressure from weak market demand and the introduction of new production capacities [9]

Group 1 - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the Commodity Price Index for September was 111.9 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking five consecutive months of growth [1] - The year-on-year increase of 1.7% in the Commodity Price Index for September shows an expansion of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating better overall performance than the same period last year [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 18 saw price increases in September, with notable rises in corrugated paper (6%), caustic soda (2.5%), and electrolytic copper (2.3%) [1] Group 2 - The current period is characterized as a traditional production peak season in October, with expectations for the commodity market to maintain a stable and positive trend due to effective government policies aimed at promoting growth [2] - Despite the positive outlook, challenges such as geopolitical tensions and trade frictions continue to pose risks to global economic recovery, with some sectors still experiencing insufficient effective demand [2] - To solidify the economic recovery, there is a need for increased macroeconomic regulation to stimulate corporate innovation and unleash domestic demand potential [2]

Core Insights - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index for September reached 111.9 points, marking a 0.2% month-on-month increase and indicating a stable overall performance in the commodity market [1] - The year-on-year increase of 1.7% in the commodity price index shows an improvement compared to the previous month, reflecting a positive trend in the market [1] Industry Analysis - In September, 18 out of 50 monitored commodities experienced price increases, with notable rises in corrugated paper (6%), caustic soda (2.5%), and electrolytic copper (2.3%) [1] - The current October period is characterized as a traditional peak production season, with expectations for continued stability and growth in the commodity market due to effective government policies aimed at promoting growth [3] - The non-ferrous metal price index is rising due to increased downstream demand from sectors like new energy and photovoltaics, as well as the commercialization of artificial intelligence [4] - Conversely, the black metal and mineral price indices have seen a decline due to project construction delays caused by extreme weather conditions [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, shows signs of weak consolidation. Rebar inventories have decreased, and the implementation of new policy financial tools may support market sentiment. However, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to remain weak [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Although iron ore prices have declined, iron ore demand, as indicated by increasing iron - water production, is rising, while supply shows mixed trends [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are likely to experience wide - range fluctuations. The coking coal market is affected by pre - holiday production adjustments and downstream inventory replenishment, and the coke market is influenced by cost increases and demand changes [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to be weakly volatile. Both markets face challenges such as high supply, limited demand, and increasing production costs [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3097 yuan/ton, down 0.0.55% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable, and the national building materials inventory decreased by 5.1% week - on - week. The hot - rolled coil inventory also declined. The market is expected to be weakly consolidated [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 784 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased steadily, and other countries' shipments increased. Iron - water production rose, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 3.55%. Some coal mines have scheduled holiday maintenance, and downstream inventory replenishment is nearing completion. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1647 yuan/ton, down 2.69%. Some steel mills have accepted the first round of coke price increases. Coke supply may decrease due to cost pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, closing at 5820 yuan/ton, down 0.78%. Supply remains relatively high, demand is limited, and production costs are increasing. The market is expected to be weakly volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures price weakened, closing at 5610 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. Supply is high, demand is limited, and production costs are rising. The market is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of various contracts, such as 1 - 5 months and 5 - 10 months for different commodities, showed different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 58.0, down 1.0 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts also changed. For instance, the basis of the 01 rebar contract was 143.0, down 3.0 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions changed. For example, the Shanghai spot price of rebar was 3240.0, down 10.0 [3]. - **Profits and Price Ratios**: The report also monitored profits (such as rebar's盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and price ratios (such as the coil - rebar ratio, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presented the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][8][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The historical basis of the main contracts of various commodities was shown, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [16][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The historical spreads of different inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) of various commodities were presented [25][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: The historical spreads of different inter - commodity contracts (such as the coil - rebar ratio, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) were shown [41][42][43][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: The historical profits of rebar (盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit) from 2020 to 2025 were presented [46][47][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [51][52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate weakly as raw material trends weaken [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly due to sector sentiment resonance [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations [2][14][15]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 784.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The open interest decreased by 34,937 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores declined slightly. The basis and inter - contract spreads showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to August, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [4]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3097 yuan/ton and 3289 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan (-1.34%) and 41 yuan (-1.23%) respectively. Open interest and trading volume data are provided, and spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple industry data were released, including profit data of large - scale industrial enterprises, steel production, inventory, and import - export data. For example, from January to August, the cumulative export of steel was 7749.0 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [9][10]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia declined. Various spreads such as basis, inter - contract spreads, and cross - product spreads are provided [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Price information of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and production data in some areas are provided [11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1 [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 were 1154 yuan/ton and 1647 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan (-3.6%) and 45.5 yuan (-2.7%) respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and basis and inter - contract spreads changed [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it has never issued or authorized any notices or initiatives regarding "mandatory production cuts" or "joint price increases" [16]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0 [16]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads also changed [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of logs is 0 [20].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market trends and strategic outlook for the black metal industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-September 2025, the market price for hot-rolled ordinary plates (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) is 3428.8 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.05% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for the same product was 5897.8 yuan per ton in mid-September 2021 [1] Historical Price Data - The report includes a statistical chart detailing the price fluctuations of hot-rolled ordinary plates (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) from 2019 to mid-September 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The market price of angle steel (5) in mid-September 2025 is reported at 3481 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.19% and a month-on-month increase of 0.27% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for angle steel (5) was 5666.1 CNY per ton in mid-September 2021 [1] Price Trends - The price of angle steel (5) has shown a consistent upward trend, with a notable increase in the current year compared to the previous year [1] - Historical data indicates significant fluctuations in the price of angle steel (5) from 2019 to 2025, with the peak occurring in 2021 [1]