Core Viewpoint - The 2026 "Two New" policy aims to enhance equipment updates and promote the replacement of consumer goods, addressing key social issues and supporting economic development through targeted subsidies and optimized implementation mechanisms [1][2][7]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The 2026 "Two New" policy expands the support scope to include the installation of elevators in old residential areas, equipment updates in elderly care institutions, and updates for commercial facilities like shopping centers and supermarkets [2][4]. - The policy continues to support the replacement of old vehicles and household appliances, including cars, washing machines, refrigerators, and extends subsidies to digital and smart products such as smartphones and smart home devices [2][3]. Group 2: Subsidy Standards - The subsidy standards for equipment updates have been optimized, with a shift to differentiated subsidies based on the number of floors for old residential elevators, potentially easing financial burdens for high-rise buildings [4]. - For automotive subsidies, the policy adjusts from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, with specific rates for new energy vehicles and fuel-efficient cars, ensuring better alignment with consumer needs [5][6]. Group 3: Implementation Mechanisms - The policy introduces an optimized project application and review process, lowering the investment threshold for project applications and increasing support for small and medium-sized enterprises [7]. - A unified subsidy standard will be implemented nationwide for various categories, addressing discrepancies in local subsidy standards and ensuring that more consumers benefit from the policy [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of the 2026 national subsidy policy, which includes subsidies for smart products like AR glasses and emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key task for the upcoming year [1][2] - The new subsidy policy for automobiles shifts from a fixed amount to a proportional subsidy, with electric vehicle scrappage subsidies set at 12% of the vehicle price (up to 20,000) and fuel vehicle scrappage subsidies at 8% (up to 15,000) [1][3] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is framed as a strategic deployment to address external shocks and enhance domestic circulation, highlighting the growth potential of discretionary consumption sectors such as retail, new energy vehicles, and smart home appliances [1][2] Group 2 - The optional consumption ETF primarily covers sectors closely related to service consumption and the unified market, with significant weightings in automobiles (46%) and home appliances (34%) [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the optional consumption ETF include major companies such as Midea Group, BYD, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, indicating a strong representation of leading firms in the consumer sector [2]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a subsidy policy for 2026, providing a 15% subsidy for personal purchases of specific electronic products, including smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, and smart glasses [2][5] - The policy marks a significant change from 2025 by including smart glasses, recognized as the "next generation human-computer interaction interface," in the subsidy program [2][5] Subsidy Details - Consumers can receive a 15% subsidy on the purchase price of eligible products, with a maximum subsidy of 500 yuan per item for smart devices priced under 6000 yuan [3][6] - For home appliances, the subsidy applies to energy-efficient products (1st level) such as refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan per item [3][6] Structural Optimizations - The subsidy program has expanded its scope to include smart glasses, smartwatches, and smart home products, enhancing the support for digital and intelligent devices [3][6] - The policy continues to support the replacement of old appliances and vehicles, focusing on energy-efficient products and promoting a shift towards green and low-carbon upgrades [3][6]

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 31 日 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：12 月美国金融条件进一步放松 近期数据显示美国经济增长动能整体改善：三季度 GDP 增速超预期（彭博 一致预期，下同）；12 月以来居民消费仍有韧性，企业投资意愿边际修复， 地产仍然偏弱；10-11 月美国私人就业维持扩张，11 月 CPI 通胀也超预期降 温，但两者均不同程度受到政府关门扰动；企业雇佣意愿和首申数据指示就 业趋势性改善；12 月 PMI 边际放缓但仍处扩张区间。12 月金融条件进一步 放松，主要受美元走弱、美股上涨推动。往前看，关注 12 月非农就业（1 月 9 日）、12 月 CPI（1 月 13 日）、联储主席人选（1 月初宣布）以及美联储 1 月 FOMC 会议（1 月 27-28 日）。 风险提示：美国就业市场走弱速度超预期，美国流动性紧张缓解不及预期。 研报发布日期：2025-12-30 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程首 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 2026年"国补"政策来了！ 12月30日晚间消息，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策 的通知》，明确2026年"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和工作要求。 2026年，将继续实施汽车报废更新和汽车置换更新补贴；继续实施家电以旧换新补贴，支持范围聚焦冰 箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热水器等6类产品；同时，将数码产品购新补贴拓展为数码和智能产品 购新补贴，支持范围包括手机、平板、智能手表（手环）、智能眼镜和智能家居产品。 另据新华社报道，近日，国家发改委会同财政部，已向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别 国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划。 两部门重磅发布 12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部印发的《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的 通知》（以下简称"通知"）对外发布。据悉，2026年"两新"政策主要做了3个方面优化： 一是优化支持范围。设备更新方面，总体延续2025年支持范围，在民生领域增加老旧小区加装电梯、养 老机构设备更新，在安全领域增加消 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘涨跌互现，贵金属跌幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20251231 中信期货研究所 王含章 从业资格号F03121254 投资咨询号Z0022985 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | 热门行业涨跌幅 | | | | | | 硅铁 | 5750 | 1.30% | 1.38% | 6.68% -8.09% | 2.42% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 行业 | 现价 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | 锰硅 | 5942 | 1.36% | 1.75% | 5.80% -2.43% | 2.84% | | | 石油石化 | 3429 2.67% | 4.0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the announcement of the 2026 "National Subsidy" policy by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance, which includes subsidies for smart products like AR glasses and emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key task for the upcoming year [1] - The subsidy for scrapping and updating vehicles has shifted from a fixed amount to a proportional method, with new energy vehicle scrapping subsidies set at 12% of the vehicle price (up to 20,000 yuan), and fuel vehicle scrapping subsidies at 8% (up to 15,000 yuan) [1] - The NDRC's strategy to expand domestic demand is aimed at addressing external shocks and declining external demand, and is seen as crucial for strengthening the domestic circulation and stimulating market vitality [1] Group 2 - The optional consumption ETF primarily covers sectors closely related to service consumption and the unified market, including automobiles (46%), home appliances (34%), and commercial retail (6%) [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the optional consumption ETF include Midea Group, BYD, Gree Electric, Fuyao Glass, Haier Smart Home, Seres, Sanhua Intelligent Control, China Duty Free Group, SAIC Motor, and Changan Automobile [2] Group 3 - The previous subsidy standards for 2025 included a fixed subsidy for home appliances (up to 2,000 yuan), digital and smart products (up to 500 yuan), and specific amounts for scrapping and updating vehicles [3] - The old policy provided a fixed subsidy of 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles for scrapping, and 15,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 13,000 yuan for fuel vehicles for replacement [3]

证券时报记者 韩忠楠 12月30日，国家发展改革委、财政部发布《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策 的通知》，明确2026年"两新"政策的支持范围、补贴标准和工作要求。 据悉，国家已于近日向地方提前下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资 金计划，满足元旦、春节等旺季消费需求。 2026年"两新"政策主要在支持范围、补贴标准、实施机制三方面进行优化。 支持范围方面，设备更新领域，总体延续2025年支持范围，在民生领域增加老旧小区加装电梯、养 老机构设备更新，在安全领域增加消防救援、检验检测设备更新，在消费基础设施领域增加商业综合 体、购物中心、百货店、大型超市等线下消费商业设施的设备更新。 消费品"以旧换新"领域，继续实施汽车报废更新和汽车置换更新补贴。国家节能中心主任刘琼表 示，2026年将此前定额补贴优化调整为按车价比例补贴，报废更新补贴最高2万元、置换更新补贴最高 1.5万元。补贴资金支出随车辆价格调节，既能稳定更新总量，又能改善补贴车型结构，减少"内卷 式"、低水平的简单价格竞争。 同时，继续实施家电以旧换新补贴，支持范围聚焦冰箱、洗衣机、电视、空调、电脑、热 ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have issued a notice regarding the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy in 2026, with an initial funding of 62.5 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods [1] - The scope of national subsidies for home appliances has been narrowed to six categories: refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, with the subsidy rate for first-level energy-efficient appliances reduced from 20% to 15%, and the maximum subsidy per appliance decreased from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan [1] - New smart products such as smart glasses and smart home devices will be included in the subsidy program, while categories like home decoration and electric bicycles have been excluded [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need to encourage wealthy individuals to spend more and save less, while also increasing consumer loan availability to support lower-income groups in making significant purchases based on life and career cycles [4] - It suggests that improving consumption hinges on optimizing income distribution, expanding the middle-income group, and enhancing social security, alongside implementing credit policies to reduce debt constraints [4] - Recommendations include reducing non-consumption debt, increasing credit accessibility, stabilizing income, and adjusting income distribution structures to achieve a steady increase in the consumption rate [4]

Macro News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement policies in 2026, outlining support scope, subsidy standards, and work requirements [1] - The policy includes subsidies for replacing old home appliances, with consumers receiving 15% of the sales price as a subsidy for purchasing energy-efficient appliances, capped at 1,500 yuan per item [1] - The policy also supports the purchase of digital and smart products, offering a similar subsidy structure, with a cap of 500 yuan per item for products priced under 6,000 yuan [1] - Additionally, the policy provides subsidies for scrapping old cars, with 12% of the purchase price for new energy vehicles (up to 20,000 yuan) and 10% for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less (up to 15,000 yuan) [1] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released the "Automobile Industry Digital Transformation Implementation Plan," aiming for significant improvements in smart manufacturing capabilities and digital levels by 2027 [2] - By 2030, the plan envisions a high level of digital and intelligent development in the industry, with deep integration of digitalization and business, and a well-established digital public service system [2] - The National Defense Science and Technology Industry Bureau emphasized the need to promote commercial aerospace development and accelerate the construction of a strong aerospace nation [2] - The Ministry of Education plans to advance artificial intelligence in education, with policies expected next year to enhance AI education and applications [2] Overseas News - U.S. stock indices closed lower on December 30, with the Dow Jones down 94.87 points, S&P 500 down 9.5 points, and Nasdaq down 55.27 points, marking three consecutive days of decline [3] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements, with a 25 basis point rate cut approved, lowering the target range to 3.50% to 3.75% [3] - The decision had the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019, indicating a divided stance among Fed members regarding the rate cut [3]