格隆汇3月9日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2026年3月3日，中国银行(03988.HK)遭BlackRock, Inc.在场内以每股均价4.6352港元减持好仓4460.9万 股，涉资约2.07亿港元。 | 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名稱 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的股 每股的平均價 | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 份數目 | 原因 | | | (請參閱上述*註解)有投票權股 (日/月/ | | | | | | | 份自分比 | | | | | | | ( % ) | | CS20260306E00407 | BlackRock, Inc. | 1201(L) | 44,609,000(L) | HKD 4.6352 | 4,992,175,189(L) 5.97(L)03/03/202 | | | | | | | 15,058,000(S) 0.02(S) | 减持后，BlackRock, Inc.最新持好仓数目为4,992,175,189股，持好仓比例由6.02%下 ...

| 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名稱 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的股 每股的平均價 | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事件的 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 份數目 | 原因 | | ( 請參閱上述 * 註解 ) 有投票權股 (日 / 月 / | | | | | | 份自分比 | | | | | | 96 ) | | CS20260306E00410 | BlackRock, Inc. 10,308,193(L) | 1201(L) | HKD 4.0415 | 496,925,461(L) 5.97(L)03/03/202 | | | | | | 0.32(S) 26,893,500(S) | 格隆汇3月9日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2026年3月3日，民生银行(01988.HK)遭BlackRock, Inc.在场内以每股均价4.0415港元减持好仓1030.82万 股，涉资约4166.1万港元。 减持后，BlackRock, Inc.最新持好仓数目为496,925,461股，持好仓比例由6.10%下降至5.97%。 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have significantly increased their net purchases of Hong Kong stocks, reaching a record high of 37.213 billion HKD on March 9, 2026, despite market volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Southbound Fund Activity - On March 9, 2026, southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 37.213 billion HKD, surpassing the previous record of 35.876 billion HKD set on August 15, 2025 [1][2]. - The total net purchase amount for the year has exceeded 180 billion HKD, indicating a strong overall trend of net buying [2]. Group 2: Market Adjustments and Stock Performance - The adjustment of the Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks, effective from March 9, 2026, has attracted significant southbound capital, with 42 new stocks added to the list [3]. - The new additions to the index include major players in innovative drug development, with 12 out of 13 new stocks having a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion HKD, contributing over 240 billion HKD in market value to the index [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in southbound fund inflows may be linked to the adjustments in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with potential "front-running" behavior observed among investors [5]. - Despite a recent technical rebound in the Hong Kong market, the outlook remains cautious, with expectations of continued volatility due to external geopolitical factors and domestic economic conditions [6][8].

2026.03. 09 本文字数：2699，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈君君 随着美国与以色列针对伊朗的军事行动进入第二周，中东局势持续升级，能源供应风险迅速升温。 3月9日（周一）盘中，国际油价突破每桶100美元关口，触发全球金融市场剧烈波动。股市普遍下 跌，日经225指数下跌5.2%，韩国综合指数跌近6%；外汇与贵金属同步震荡，部分传统避险资产 亦出现回落，黄金、白银短线下跌，美元指数升至99.54，市场对通胀与全球经济前景的担忧明显升 温。 在多类资产同步波动的背景下，机构分析指出，本轮震荡由"能源—通胀—利率"再定价引发，投资 者普遍降低风险敞口。渣打、瑞银等机构认为亚太市场基本面韧性较强，黄金仍具长期避险价值。短 期市场波动明显，但若霍尔木兹海峡运输恢复，油价可能回落，资产价格有望企稳。 全球资产剧烈波动 3月9日，全球金融市场延续前一周的剧烈震荡。 随着伊朗继续关闭关键能源运输通道霍尔木兹海峡，原油供应担忧迅速升温。当日盘中，WTI原油盘 中大涨约13%，报102美元/桶；布伦特原油大涨近15%，至106美元/桶。Wind数据显示，年初以 来，两大基准油价累计涨幅均接近80%。这是自 ...

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate differential has deepened, with inflation expectations also rising [2][14]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced and relatively loose [2][21]. Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity continues to rise, with trading heat in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, military industry, public utilities, and steel exceeding the 90th percentile [3][27]. - The volatility of major indices has increased, with sectors like steel, military, oil and petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals showing volatility above the 80th percentile [3][33]. - Market liquidity indicators have improved, although all sectors remain below the 70th historical percentile [3][37]. Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, computing, electric new energy, and pharmaceutical sectors are leading in research activity, with construction materials, computing, media, pharmaceuticals, and textiles showing a month-on-month increase in research heat [4][44]. Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027 have been downgraded, with the proportion of stocks with upward revisions decreasing [5][19]. - Specific sectors such as computing, transportation, machinery, electricity, and public utilities have seen upward revisions in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [5][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices for 2026/2027 have been increased, while the forecasts for the CSI 300 and SSE 50 have been decreased [5][23]. - Mid-cap/small-cap growth and large/mid/small-cap value sectors have seen upward revisions in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [5][25]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased slightly, continuing to show a net sell-off in A-shares [6][31]. - In the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio for sectors like telecommunications, electric new energy, and automobiles has risen, while it has decreased in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [6][32]. - For stocks with northbound holdings below 30 million shares, there has been a net buying in electronics, electric new energy, and media sectors, while net selling occurred in computing, military, and coal sectors [6][33]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has rapidly declined to the lowest point since mid-July 2025, with a net sell-off of 24.172 billion yuan last week [6][35]. - The main net buying occurred in oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and non-ferrous sectors, while net selling was seen in TMT, electric new energy, and banking sectors [6][36]. - Only the financing buying ratio for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing, textiles, and transportation sectors has increased [6][38]. Long-Short Trading Activity - The trading heat in the long-short list has decreased, with the total trading amount falling and its proportion of total A-share trading also declining [7][41]. - Sectors like oil and petrochemicals and agriculture have a relatively high and still rising proportion of trading amounts in the long-short list [7][44]. Active Equity Fund Positions - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, while ETFs have seen a net redemption, although the pace has noticeably slowed [8][45]. - After excluding the impact of price changes, actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in oil and petrochemicals, military, and media sectors, while reducing positions in electronics, telecommunications, and chemicals [8][47]. - The correlation between actively managed equity funds and small-cap growth/value has increased, while the correlation with large/mid-cap growth/value has decreased [8][48]. - The scale of newly established equity funds has rebounded, with both actively and passively managed funds seeing an increase in establishment scale [8][50].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to perform better than the CSI 300 index by more than 5% within 6 months) [36] Core Insights - The 2026 government work report emphasizes a dual focus on structural adjustment and risk prevention, with deepening capital market reforms. The report highlights the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming for stable growth and reasonable inflation, while ensuring that social financing and credit scales maintain reasonable growth to support the real economy [3][11][13]. - The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, stated that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, efforts will be made to deepen capital market reforms and strengthen regulation, focusing on high-quality development. Key areas include enhancing market resilience, improving the capital market system, and strengthening investor protection [3][15]. - The integration of financial licenses within Jiangsu Province, marked by Dongwu Securities' acquisition of Donghai Securities, reflects ongoing supply-side financial reforms. This consolidation is expected to enhance comprehensive financial service capabilities and optimize regional financial resource allocation [4][18]. Summary by Sections Government Work Report - The report outlines the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing growth and inflation. In January 2026, the social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, indicating stable financial support for the real economy [13]. - The banking sector is expected to face pressure on net interest margins, with a projected net interest margin of 1.42% by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline that is expected to moderate [13]. Capital Market Reforms - Wu Qing's remarks highlight the importance of risk prevention and regulatory strengthening during the 14th Five-Year Plan. The focus will be on enhancing the quality of listed companies and improving the inclusiveness of capital market systems to better support technological innovation [15]. - The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive reform of investment and financing mechanisms, with policies aimed at increasing the participation of long-term funds in the capital market [13]. Financial License Integration - The acquisition of Donghai Securities by Dongwu Securities signifies a trend towards the consolidation of financial licenses in Jiangsu Province, enhancing the competitive landscape and service capabilities of regional financial institutions [4][18]. - Following the merger, Dongwu Securities is expected to improve its asset scale and business layout, moving up in industry rankings and enhancing its capital strength [19]. Industry Data - The banking sector saw a net withdrawal of 12.474 billion yuan in open market operations, with SHIBOR rates declining, indicating a more favorable liquidity environment [27]. - The average daily trading volume in the stock market reached 33.38 trillion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 14.2%, reflecting active market participation [29]. Performance Metrics - The banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices experienced changes of +1.59%, -2.97%, -1.50%, and +4.91% respectively, indicating varied performance across sectors [21].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,757, up 1.72% for the day but down 3.28% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3.15%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 2.09%[9] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 1.33% and 1.59% respectively, with year-to-date declines of 1.54% and 3.68%[3] Oil Price Surge - WTI crude oil prices surged approximately 36% and Brent crude by about 27% due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, disrupting oil transport in the Strait of Hormuz[9] - The VIX index rose by 22%, reaching its highest level since April of the previous year, indicating increased market volatility[9] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for February showed a loss of 92,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%[9] - This data has heightened concerns regarding inflation and economic outlook[9] Sector Performance - JD.com reported a revenue of over 1.3 trillion yuan for 2025, a 13% year-on-year increase, with a core retail operating margin of 4.6%[9] - Biopharmaceutical stocks surged, with companies like 3SBio and CanSino rising over 9% following government support for the sector[9] Commodity Trends - Gold stocks faced pressure, with China Gold International and Tongguan Gold dropping by 5.20% and 1.93% respectively, amid rising inflation expectations due to oil price hikes[9] - The copper inventory on the LME increased by over 20,000 tons, marking the largest weekly rise since August 2024, contributing to a 43.69% increase in domestic copper stock[9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for Changsha Bank [12] Core Insights - The new management under Chairman Zhang Man aims to prioritize risk clearance over scale, with a target credit growth rate of under 10% in the medium term. The bank's current PB valuation is 0.53x, significantly undervalued compared to an ROE of 11.4%. Expected dividend yields for 2025 and 2026 are 4.46% and 4.83%, respectively [2][10] Summary by Sections Strategic Overview - Changsha Bank has successfully achieved a trillion yuan asset scale over the past decade and established a strong competitive advantage in Hunan province. The new management is expected to enter a stable long-term cycle, focusing on risk management and historical burden resolution, with 2026 marking a pivotal year for asset quality [7][19] Credit and Loan Strategy - The bank's loan market share in Changsha exceeds 7%, with a focus on provincial lending. The strategy emphasizes corporate loans, particularly in infrastructure, while retail lending is being tightened to manage risk. The bank's credit growth is expected to be controlled at around 10% [8][37] Risk Management - The new management is enhancing the risk management framework, tightening standards for non-performing loans. The bank anticipates a turning point in key risk indicators by 2026-2027, with a focus on reducing non-performing loan ratios and improving coverage rates [9][50] Financial Performance and Valuation - Changsha Bank is currently undervalued in the market, with a low PB ratio and a mid-range ROE. If the bank can confirm a turning point in asset quality by 2026-2027, profit growth is expected to rebound, leading to a potential recovery in valuation [10][50] County-Level Financial Strategy - The bank has prioritized county-level financial services, which are expected to contribute significantly to loan growth. As of mid-2025, approximately 48% of new loans originated from county-level initiatives, reflecting a strategic focus on local economic development [27][28]

Group 1 - Major stock indices are experiencing declines, with Dow futures down 0.37%, S&P 500 futures down 0.46%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.57%. The VIX index has risen to 35.02 points, the highest level since April 2025 [1] - Technology stocks are collectively declining, with Microsoft down 1.53%, Google down 1.87%, Amazon down 1.74%, and Meta down 1.46% [1] - Chip stocks are also down, with Nvidia down 1.16%, Broadcom down 1.59%, and AMD down 1.60% [1] - Mining stocks are experiencing declines, with Newmont Mining down 3.09%, Rio Tinto down 3.71%, and Freeport-McMoRan down 3.76% [1] - Defense stocks are rising, with Lockheed Martin up 1.67%, Raytheon Technologies up 1.95%, and Northrop Grumman up 2.15%. This follows a meeting between President Trump and major defense contractors regarding weapon production plans [1] Group 2 - Oil stocks are rising, with ConocoPhillips up 2.78%, ExxonMobil up 1.51%, and Occidental Petroleum up 2.16%. This comes as G7 finance ministers are set to discuss the potential release of strategic oil reserves [2] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that the shortage of memory supply is beneficial for the company, allowing customers to choose the highest performance solutions. He also mentioned that Nvidia will utilize as much capacity as memory manufacturers expand [2] - Apple is increasing the inventory for its first foldable phone, the iPhone Fold, by 20% compared to its original target, indicating strong internal confidence in sales [3] - UBS is facing a potential requirement to increase its CET1 capital by $22 billion due to new regulatory proposals from the Swiss Federal Council, leading to a 3.2% drop in its stock [3]

Group 1 - BlackRock reduced its stake in Bank of China (03988) by 44.609 million shares at a price of HKD 4.6352 per share, totaling approximately HKD 207 million [1] - After the reduction, BlackRock's latest shareholding stands at approximately 4.992 billion shares, representing a holding percentage of 5.97% [1]