热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯菜籽油市场分析师张德强 【导语】近期国内外市场利空因素明显增多，全球油菜籽供应量上升，国内进口油菜籽到港成本不断减 少。目前澳大利亚油菜籽已经到港，12月份国内油菜籽进口量将继续增加，随着国内菜籽油供应量有增 加预期，预计12月份国内菜籽油价格将继续下跌。 全球油菜籽丰产 12月4日加拿大统计局发布产量报告，报告数据显示，2025/26年度加拿大油菜籽产量预计将达到创纪录 的2180万吨，较9月份的预测值上调177万吨，较2024/25年度产量增加256.1万吨，增幅为13.31%，超过 市场普遍预测的2125万吨，甚至有部分分析师预计产量数据仍将继续上调，全球油菜籽供应仍有增加空 间。 12月初澳大利亚农业资源经济科学局发布季度报告，报告数据显示，2025/26年度澳大利亚油菜籽产量 将达到创纪录的720万吨，较2024/25年度产量增加126万吨，增幅为21.21%。 美国农业部12月份供需报告数据显示，2025/26年度欧盟地区油菜籽产量在2020万吨，较上一年度相比 增加335.9万吨，增幅为19.95%。随着全球主要油菜籽生产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil export volume from Malaysia is expected to increase significantly in the first half of December compared to the same period last month, indicating a positive trend in the palm oil industry [1] Group 1: Export Data - Malaysia's palm oil export volume for December 1-15 is projected to be 435,882 tons, which represents a 30.39% increase from 334,295 tons during the same period last month [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The willingness of channels to hold corn inventory may reach a cyclical inflection point. In the short - term, the counter - seasonal price increase in November 2025 was a correction after the channel inventory was compressed to the extreme. In the long - term, market sentiment and channel inventory demand may turn upward due to factors such as the profit - making effect of traders' inventory in 2024/2025, losses from short - selling in 2025Q4, and the lack of a basis for a unanimous bearish view on new crops in 2025/2026 [1] - Policy is likely to be the key variable in the 2025/2026 balance sheet. The policy has a large amount of grain available for auction, and import policies have a greater impact on imported grains than import profits. The amount of policy grain auctions in the first half of 2026 will affect the corn price center and the seasonal high in Q3 [1] - Under the neutral assumption, at the end of the 2025/2026 period, the negative inventory phenomenon of channels is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year. Corn may change from a net purchase of 5 million tons in the previous year to a net auction of 8 million tons. The auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 is expected to be 15 million tons, but it is still insufficient to fully make up for the remaining gap in corn [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review: Similarities Year after Year - Since 2023, the corn price has been oscillating downward. The seasonal characteristics of corn prices in recent years have shown high consistency: prices decline during the farmers' concentrated selling season and rise after the inventory - building demand is released. There is a verification period for the balance sheet near the end of the corn market year [13] - In 2025, the price generally followed the above - mentioned seasonal pattern, but the performance after November was different. The price increased counter - seasonally in November, mainly due to the re - correction of the balance sheet and the correction of the over - decline in 2024Q3 [15][18] 3.2 History Does Not Simply Repeat Itself 3.2.1 Unchanged Aspects - The basic pattern that the corn gap can be easily filled is expected to remain unchanged in the next two years. The 2026 corn market is not expected to deviate significantly from the traditional seasonal framework of the past three years. Policy variables are likely to be the most critical factor in the 2025/2026 balance sheet [21] 3.2.2 New Variables - In 2025, the market was more cautious than ever, and the channel inventory compression reached an extreme. In the short - term, the counter - seasonal price increase in November 2025 was a correction after the channel inventory was compressed to the extreme. In the long - term, market sentiment and channel inventory demand may turn upward [25] 3.3 Supply in 2025/2026: Low Inventory Carry - over vs. New Crop Yield Increase 3.3.1 New Crop Yield Situation - The view on the new crop yield situation has changed little compared with the quarterly report in September. It is still a bumper harvest but with quality differentiation. The yield increase mainly comes from Northeast China, followed by Xinjiang, and the yield in North China is expected to be flat with a slight increase [28] 3.3.2 Inventory Carry - over - There is a contradiction between large - scale grain supply at the grass - roots level and tight downstream inventory, indicating that the carry - over inventory may be significantly lower than expected. The possible reason is that the non - existent in - transit inventory was mis - counted. It is estimated that the commercial inventory carry - over in 2024/2025 decreased by more than 10 million tons year - on - year [29][44][45] 3.3.3 No Significant Selling Pressure, Tighter Balance Sheet, and Possible Cyclical Reversal of Channel Inventory - The yield increase may not cover the decline in inventory, so the supply - demand gap of corn in 2025/2026 may not narrow year - on - year. There is expected to be no significant selling pressure in the short - term. The phenomenon of negative inventory of traders at the end of the 2025/2026 market year is expected to decrease significantly [51] 3.4 Demand in 2025/2026 3.4.1 Deep - processing - The demand for corn deep - processing is better than expected in September. The price of cassava starch has risen due to floods in Thailand, and the market share previously replaced by cassava is gradually being recovered. Although the terminal demand for deep - processing is still weak, the overall decline in the total demand for corn deep - processing this year is likely to be small [52][61] 3.4.2 Energy Feed - Pig feed demand is expected to increase cyclically year - on - year, but the increase may be limited by the decline in the feed - to - meat ratio. Poultry feed demand is expected to decrease cyclically year - on - year. Overall, the total energy demand is expected to be flat with a slight increase [62][73][76] 3.5 Policy Variables 3.5.1 Wheat Purchase and Auction - In 2025, the policy carried out a large amount of reserve purchases of wheat to achieve supply - demand balance. In 2026, the new wheat is expected to have an oversupply. The larger the wheat auction volume in the first half of 2026, the more the corn gap will be filled in advance, and the corn price center and the seasonal high in Q3 will decline [79][80] 3.5.2 Directed Rice - The possibility of a large - scale auction of directed rice in 2025/2026 is low, and even if the auction starts, the reserve price may be high [89] 3.5.3 Corn Regulatory Reserves - The imported corn reserves have a certain de - stocking pressure, and the auction volume is expected to be about 6 million tons in 2025/2026 under the neutral assumption. The domestic corn regulatory reserves have no de - stocking pressure and have room for further reserve increase [90] 3.5.4 Imported Grains - In recent years, imports have been more affected by policies. In the new year, the supply of overseas corn is expected to be sufficient, and the main influencing factor for imported grains is still expected to be policy. The import volume of corn is expected to increase year - on - year on a low - base, while the import volume of miscellaneous grains is expected to decline year - on - year [96][100][101] 3.6 Expectations for 2026/2027: Slight Yield Increase + Cost Increase - The corn planting area in 2026/2027 is expected to be flat with a slight increase. Under the neutral expectation, the yield per unit area is expected to be basically flat year - on - year. The Heilongjiang port collection cost is expected to increase year - on - year and may return to over 2,000 yuan/ton. The possibility of a unanimous bearish view on new crops is expected to decrease, and the willingness of traders to hold grain may increase year - on - year [113][119][120] 3.7 Balance Sheet 3.7.1 Wheat Balance Sheet Adjustment and Forecast - In the 2025/2026 wheat year, the feed demand increased year - on - year, and the policy carried out a large amount of reserve purchases. It is expected that the auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 will be about 15 million tons, and most of it may flow into the feed market. Under the neutral expectation, wheat will have a restorative yield increase in 2026/2027 [125][126][127] 3.7.2 Corn and Energy Raw Material Balance Sheet Adjustment and Forecast - The carry - over inventory of corn in 2024/2025 is significantly revised downwards, and the domestic corn supply in the new year is expected to decrease by about 4 million tons year - on - year. The import volume of corn is expected to increase slightly year - on - year, and the total demand change is expected to be relatively small. Corn is expected to have a net auction of about 8 million tons in the new year. The ending commercial inventory of corn in 2025/2026 is expected to increase by about 9 million tons year - on - year [128][129][133] 3.8 Price Outlook and Investment Suggestions 3.8.1 Price Outlook - The absolute valuation of corn in 2025/2026 depends on the auction volume of policy grains and the increase in valuation due to the recovery of the channel's willingness to hold grain. Under the neutral assumption, the auction volume of reserve wheat in the first half of 2026 may not be sufficient to fully make up for the corn gap. The 07 and 09 contracts of corn may have a bottom support of 2,200 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and the high point of the futures price may be 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton. The price is expected to have a seasonal decline in the future, and there is still room for the price to strengthen after the decline in 2026Q1 under the neutral and optimistic assumptions [137][138][140] 3.8.2 Investment Suggestions - In the spread strategy, the logic of the channel's inventory - building demand is expected to drive the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 contracts to show a reverse spread during the farmers' selling season. In the unilateral strategy, short - term opportunities to short the 03 and 05 contracts at high prices can be considered, and long - term opportunities to long the 07 and 09 contracts at low prices can be considered. It is recommended to make decisions based on driving factors [142]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 |数据日报 600 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 供给方面,根据CONAB数据,预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1. 776亿吨。截至12月5日,巴西大豆播种率为90. 3%,上周为88%,去年同 期为94.1%,五年均值为89.8%。根据BAGE,截至12月3日,阿根廷大豆播种进度44.7%,上周值36%。去年同期50%。根据天气预报,短期 无明显天气问题：12-1月国内大豆、豆箱预期季节性去库，传海关延迟放行25天，增加国内对明年一季度豆精供应的纽优,国内进口大 豆开始拍卖,成交溢价高，关注后续拍卖情况。需求方面,畜禽短期预期维持高存栏,产能去化尚不明显,支撑饲用需求,但目前养殖 | 11 结 | 利润呈现亏损,国家政策倾向于控生猪存栏和体重。或影响远月供应；豆粕性价比有所降低:近期豆粕下游成交正常，提货表现良好。 库存方面,国内大豆、豆粕库存处于历史同期高位,豆粕库存去化慢,现货供应压力0较大。预期12-1月加速去库;本周饲料企业豆粕 | | --- | --- | | | 库存天数增加; 整体来说，美豆出口疲软,南美天气暂无明显炒作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent harvests in Argentina and Australia, along with rising expectations for a ceasefire in Ukraine, have intensified supply pressures, leading to a continued decline in U.S. wheat futures, which are hovering near their lowest levels since late October [1] Market Information - As of December 14, the European Union's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 season is projected at 10.5 million tons, down from 10.8 million tons in the same period last year [1] - The EU's barley export volume for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 5 million tons, significantly higher than 2.1 million tons in the previous year [1] - The French Ministry of Agriculture forecasts that the winter wheat planting area for the 2026 harvest season will reach 4.56 million hectares, a 2.3% increase from 2025, but slightly below the five-year average [1] - According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of the week ending December 11, 2025, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 488,025 tons, revised from 396,058 tons the previous week [1] - For the current crop year, the cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume stands at 14,124,803 tons, compared to 11,578,252 tons in the same period last year [1] - Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consulting, reported that the offshore price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content was $228 per ton in the second half of January, an increase of $0.5 from the previous week [1]

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans hit a seven-week low amid widespread selling in the agricultural market due to concerns over U.S. export pace and expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil [2][9] - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Association reported that by October 2025, Brazilian factories will process 4.39 million tons of soybeans, with soybean stocks at 11.26 million tons [2][9] - Domestic protein meal continues to operate weakly, with ample supply and cautious procurement in the feed raw materials market due to ongoing losses in livestock [2][9] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil fell to a five-month low due to concerns over rising inventories and weak competing oils, with overnight declines in U.S. soybean oil and canola [3][10] - High-frequency data indicated that Malaysian palm oil exports from December 1-15 decreased by 15.9%-16.4% compared to the previous period, with production down by less than 3% [3][10] - Domestic oil prices are weak, with a high inventory level and subdued demand, leading to expectations of declining costs [3][10] Group 3: Live Pigs - The main live pig futures contract continued to adjust, closing with a small gain, indicating a bottoming trend in pig prices [4][11] - Mainstream transaction prices for live pigs in various regions showed slight declines, with prices in Heilongjiang and Jilin at 10.97 CNY/kg, and in Inner Mongolia at 10.94 CNY/kg [4][11] - Overall, the trend for pig prices is downward, with expectations of weak price movements in the coming week due to supply pressures [4][11][5] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced a downward trend, with the 2601 contract down by 0.26% and the 2603 contract down by 1.12% [6][13] - The national average egg price remained stable at 3.03 CNY/jin, with regional prices also holding steady [6][13] - There is an expectation of a gradual decline in supply due to a decrease in new laying hens, while costs remain weak [6][13] Group 5: Corn - The main corn futures contract continued to adjust, with a slight decrease in prices and limited trading activity in the northeastern production area [7][14] - Supply in the North China region remains tight, with farmers showing limited willingness to sell [7][14] - The market is in a relatively balanced state, with deep processing enterprises purchasing according to demand [7][14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Short - term, the spot price is expected to remain strong as the channel inventory is at a neutral - low level despite the decline in spot quotes. Long - term, if downstream consumption weakens seasonally and middlemen release hoarded grains, the price may decline [1]. - **Starch**: Short - term, the price is expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints. Long - term, the downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for price trends [2]. - **Sugar**: Short - term, the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. Long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price may decline [4]. - **Cotton**: With low initial inventory and good textile profits, and positive results from the Sino - US talks, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [7]. - **Eggs**: The key to future inventory decline is the culling speed. If chickens are culled before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial for the egg price in the second quarter [12]. - **Apples**: Currently, the national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The short - term market will maintain high - level volatility, and the medium - term trend will be near - strong and far - weak [16]. - **Pigs**: The short - term spot price is strong, but the near - term supply pressure is large. The long - term improvement depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2160, while the price in Jinzhou decreased by 30, and the price in Shekou decreased by 10. The basis changed by - 22, and the trade profit increased by 20 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term, the spot price is expected to be strong as the channel inventory is not over - stocked. Long - term, the price may decline if downstream demand weakens and middlemen release hoarded grains [1]. Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Heilongjiang remained at 2750, and the price in Weifang decreased by 20. The basis increased by 11, and the processing profit remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term, the price is expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption and raw material supply constraints. Long - term, the downstream consumption rhythm is the key [2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 30, and the basis increased by 44. The import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 11, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2101 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term, the pricing can refer to domestic sugar cost and spot price. Long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price may decline [4]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 25, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 265. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 27, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 26 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: With low initial inventory and good textile profits, and positive results from the Sino - US talks, the demand is expected to improve next year, suitable for long - term long positions [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Hebei remained at 3.02. The basis increased, and the prices of substitutes such as white - feather broilers and yellow - feather broilers remained relatively stable [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The key to future inventory decline is the culling speed. If chickens are culled before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial for the egg price in the second quarter [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The national cold - storage inventory data shows a decrease compared to last year [15][16]. - **Market Analysis**: Currently, the national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The short - term market will maintain high - level volatility, and the medium - term trend will be near - strong and far - weak [16]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/12/10 to 2025/12/16, the price in Henan Kaifeng remained at 11.43. The basis decreased by 45 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term spot price is strong, but the near - term supply pressure is large. The long - term improvement depends on near - term production and inventory reduction [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: The Fed's FOMC meeting was dovish. With the US economy and inflation on a downward trend, the soft - landing trade driven by liquidity has further heated up. The SEP shows an upward adjustment in economic growth outlook and a slight downward adjustment in inflation expectations. The nomination of the new Fed chair may be confirmed early next year, and the more dovish candidate, Hasset, has an increasing probability of being nominated. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for the trading of liquidity easing expectations and Fed independence risks [5]. - Domestic macro: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December analyzed and studied the economic work for 2026. The tone of the meeting is moderately positive. It is expected that the overall intensity of macro - policies in 2026 will be roughly the same as in 2025, and the idea of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical balance will continue. Food prices have rebounded significantly, and prices of household appliances, clothing, airplane tickets, domestic services, and catering have also increased [5]. - Asset views: The current macro - environment is beneficial to the precious metals sector and non - ferrous metals with high financial attributes such as copper and aluminum. Attention should also be paid to other non - ferrous metals like tin and lithium carbonate. Domestic equities are conservative at the end of the year and during the policy window period. The strong demand for industrial products in emerging markets and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for industrial commodities. The tight supply - demand fundamentals of copper and aluminum may drive their prices higher. On the equity side, the stock index lacks upward momentum after the important meetings have set the tone and is relatively defensive [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - **Stock index futures**: CSI 300 futures are at 4499.4 with a daily increase of 1.02%, a weekly decrease of 0.14%, a monthly decrease of 2.57%, a quarterly increase of 14.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.75%. Other stock index futures also show different price changes and trends [2]. - **Treasury bond futures**: 2 - year treasury bond futures are at 102.43 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.04%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, a quarterly increase of 0.14%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.53%. Different - term treasury bond futures have different performance [2]. - **Foreign exchange**: The US dollar index is at 98.28 with a daily increase of 0.10%, a weekly increase of 0.226%, a monthly increase of 3%, a quarterly increase of 0.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.40%. Exchange rates between different currencies also show various changes [2]. - **Interest rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is at 1.48 with a daily change of 0 bp, a weekly increase of 2 bp, a monthly decrease of 2 bp, a quarterly increase of 3 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 27 bp. Other interest rates also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Hot industries**: Industries such as comprehensive finance, commerce and trade retail, and consumer services show different price movements and gains or losses in different time periods. For example, the comprehensive finance index is at 880 with a daily increase of 1.139%, a weekly increase of 1.13%, a monthly decrease of 1.78%, a quarterly decrease of 6.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.08% [2]. - **Overseas commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 56.68 with a daily decrease of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 51.48%, a monthly decrease of 3.08%, a quarterly increase of 20.225%, and a year - to - date decrease of 21.2%. Different overseas commodities have different price trends [2]. 3.2 Viewpoints on Different Sectors | Sector | Variety | Recent Market Logic | Attention Points | Short - term Judgment | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Financial | Stock index futures | Technology events catalyze the activity of the growth style | Crowded funds in small - cap stocks | Oscillatory rise | | | Stock index options | The overall market turnover has slightly declined | Insufficient liquidity in the options market | Oscillation | | | Treasury bond futures | The bond market remains weak | Policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises | Oscillation | | Precious metals | Gold/Silver | Geopolitical and trade relations have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals | US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends | Oscillation | | Shipping | Container shipping to Europe | The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and loading pressure lacks upward driving force | The rate of freight decline in September | Oscillation | | Black building materials | Steel, iron ore | The market is still weak, and attention is paid to cost support and demand changes | Special bond issuance progress, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics | Oscillation | | | Coke | Cost support is strong, and the market oscillates | Steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Coking coal | Supply is difficult to improve, and spot prices continue to rise | Steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment | Oscillation | | | Ferrosilicon | Cost support exists, but upward driving force is insufficient | Raw material costs and steel procurement | Oscillation | | | Manganese silicon | Supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the market is under pressure | Cost prices and overseas quotes | Oscillation | | | Glass | Supply cuts have been implemented, and spot prices have risen | Spot sales | Oscillation | | | Soda ash | Downstream replenishment at low prices, and spot prices have slightly increased | Soda ash inventory | Oscillation | | Non - ferrous metals | Copper | Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term | Supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession | Oscillation | | | Aluminum oxide | The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure | Insufficient ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends | Oscillation | | | Aluminum | Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are rising oscillatingly | Macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand | Oscillatory rise | | | Zinc | Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly | Macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply | Oscillation | | Energy and chemical | Crude oil | Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist | OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations | Oscillation | | | LPG | Supply is still in surplus, and attention is paid to cost developments | Cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane | Oscillation | | | Asphalt | Asphalt futures prices may test the 3200 resistance level again | Sanctions and supply disruptions | Oscillatory decline | | | High - sulfur fuel oil | The fuel oil market oscillates weakly | Geopolitics and crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Low - sulfur fuel oil | Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and oscillates weakly | Crude oil prices | Oscillatory decline | | | Methanol | There is some support at the 2100 level, and methanol oscillates | Macro - energy and overseas dynamics | Oscillation | | | Urea | High inventory suppresses while cost supports, and it oscillates narrowly | Coal prices and information from the Nanjing phosphorus compound fertilizer conference | Oscillation | | | Ethylene glycol | The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus again, and pessimism is hard to reverse | Fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions | Oscillatory decline | | | PX | The market lacks clear guidance, and cost and sentiment compete to maintain oscillation | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | PTA | Xin Fengming starts new and stops old, and short - term new supply is limited | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil and macro - abnormalities | Oscillation | | | Short - fiber | Downstream factories are digesting previous inventories, and processing fees are expected to be compressed | Downstream yarn mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand | Oscillation | | | Bottle - grade polyester chips | Cost is stalemate, and supply - demand driving force is limited | Implementation of bottle - grade polyester chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning | Oscillation | | | Propylene | Downstream transactions have limited improvement, and the market oscillates | Oil prices and domestic macro - situation | Oscillation | | | PP | Fundamental support is limited, and PP weakens | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Plastic | Maintenance has decreased in the short term, and the plastic market is in a weak pattern | Oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations | Oscillation | | | Styrene | There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene oscillates weakly | Oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics | Oscillatory decline | | | PVC | Market sentiment has cooled, and PVC oscillates weakly | Expectations, costs, and supply | Oscillation | | | Caustic soda | Low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates | Market sentiment, production start - up, and demand | Oscillation | | Agriculture | Oils and fats | Market sentiment has improved, waiting for positive factors to ferment | US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data | Oscillation | | | Protein meal | Both types of meal have risen, and the market remains strong | Weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars | Oscillatory rise | | | Corn/starch | Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates | Demand, macro - situation, and weather | Oscillation | | | Live pigs | Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices oscillate | Breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies | Oscillatory decline | | | Natural rubber | The market oscillates and adjusts, and the bearish sentiment remains | Producing area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes | Oscillatory decline | | | Synthetic rubber | It has rebounded from the bottom, and attention is paid to changes in trading sentiment | Sharp fluctuations in crude oil | Oscillatory decline | | | Cotton | The main contract oscillates, with limited upward and downward space | Demand and inventory | Oscillation | | | Sugar | The idea of shorting at high prices is maintained | Imports and Brazilian production | Oscillatory decline | | | Pulp | The market volume has increased, and the enthusiasm for spot - futures arbitrage has risen | Macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes | Oscillation | | | Offset printing paper | Offset printing paper follows the pulp market and strengthens | Production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production start - up dynamics | Oscillation | | | Logs | Logs oscillate at the bottom | Special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume | Oscillation | [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Fed cut rates as expected, gold price regained strength, recommended to go long; silver overseas market was tight, but domestic inventory had accumulated for days, recommended to take profit on long positions temporarily [1] - Base Metals: - Copper: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] - Aluminum: Expected to fluctuate due to overseas supply disruptions, warm macro - environment and low inventory [2] - Alumina: Faced downward pressure, follow the impact of Guinea's election on the ore end [2][3] - Zinc: Go long at low prices and be cautious about chasing highs [3] - Lead: Operate in a range, buy low and sell high [3] - Industrial Silicon: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation with no clear direction [3] - Lithium Carbonate: Observe in the short - term, pay attention to the resumption of production rhythm and year - end energy storage policy guidance [3][4] - Polysilicon: Expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton [4] - Tin: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] - Black Industry: - Rebar: Mainly observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] - Iron Ore: Mainly observe [5][6] - Coking Coal: Mainly observe [6] - Agricultural Products: - Soybean Meal: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] - Corn: Spot price was expected to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] - Edible Oils: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] - Cotton: Buy low with a price reference range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] - Eggs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Pigs: Futures price was expected to oscillate [7] - Energy and Chemicals: - LLDPE: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] - PVC: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8] - Glass: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [8][9] - PP: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] - Crude Oil: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] - Styrene: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] - Soda Ash: Conduct reverse arbitrage due to weak supply - demand [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold) - Market Performance: Gold price oscillated, international gold price basically closed flat [1] - Fundamentals: US November non - farm data was good, but unemployment rate soared; Fed had internal differences; domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventories in different places changed [1] - Trading Strategy: Go long [1] Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper price oscillated weakly [2] - Fundamentals: US non - farm data and unemployment rate affected the dollar index; supply was tight, demand had price differences, and the London structure changed [2] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.34% [2] - Fundamentals: High - load production on the supply side, slightly decreased weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Expected to oscillate [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.16% [2] - Fundamentals: Stable production capacity on the supply side, high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2] - Trading Strategy: Faced downward pressure, follow Guinea's election impact [2][3] Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE zinc 2601 contract decreased by 1.71% [3] - Fundamentals: Macro - warming and supply tightening; overseas and domestic supply issues; demand was differentiated; import window was closed [3] - Trading Strategy: Go long at low prices, be cautious about chasing highs [3] Lead - Market Performance: The closing price of the SHFE lead 2601 contract decreased by 1.09% [3] - Fundamentals: Mild supply - demand, slightly decreased smelter start - up rate, slightly increased battery start - up rate, possible inventory accumulation [3] - Trading Strategy: Operate in a range [3] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased furnace - opening quantity on the supply side, social inventory accumulated; demand in different industries had different trends [3] - Trading Strategy: Observe as the market was in a weak oscillation [3] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 decreased by 0.46% [3] - Fundamentals: Increased lithium concentrate price, increased production, decreased demand in some materials; expected to maintain destocking [3][4] - Trading Strategy: Observe in the short - term [3][4] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract increased by 0.18% [4] - Fundamentals: Stable production on the supply side, decreased demand in related industries; expected inventory accumulation [4] - Trading Strategy: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] Tin - Market Performance: Tin price oscillated weakly [4] - Fundamentals: Tight supply, increased supply from Myanmar; demand had delivery and premium situations [4] - Trading Strategy: Wait for low - buying opportunities [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 7 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Decreased inventory, weak supply - demand, structural differentiation; high - loss of steel mills, possible production reduction [5] - Trading Strategy: Observe, try to short the RB05 contract [5] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 8.5 yuan/ton [5] - Fundamentals: Increased shipment, decreased port inventory; weak supply - demand, decreased iron - water production; marginal weakening of supply - demand [5][6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [5][6] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main contract increased by 4 yuan/ton [6] - Fundamentals: Decreased iron - water production, deteriorated steel mill profits; first - round coke price cut implemented, second - round proposed; inventory was at a neutral level [6] - Trading Strategy: Observe [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans continued to decline [6] - Fundamentals: Slight reduction in the near - term supply, large supply in the far - term in South America; strong US soybean crushing and slow export [6] - Trading Strategy: US soybeans were weak, domestic market was near - strong and far - weak [6] Corn - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated narrowly, spot price slightly decreased [6] - Fundamentals: Low channel inventory, short - term supply shortage, but downstream losses and reduced procurement enthusiasm [6] - Trading Strategy: Spot price to weaken, futures price to oscillate and fall [6] Edible Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to fall [6] - Fundamentals: Seasonal production reduction but year - on - year increase on the supply side; weak export on the demand side; near - term inventory accumulation [6] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly and show variety differentiation [6] Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton futures price started to fall, Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rise [6] - Fundamentals: Slightly bearish US cotton export data, Brazilian cotton export increased; strong buying support for Zhengzhou cotton but weak yarn price increase [6] - Trading Strategy: Buy low in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton [6] Eggs - Market Performance: Futures price was weak, spot price increased [7] - Fundamentals: Decreased laying - hen inventory, slowed de - capacity; low price could drive demand, but high price reduced downstream purchasing willingness [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Pigs - Market Performance: Futures price oscillated, spot price slightly decreased [7] - Fundamentals: Sufficient supply, seasonal increase in demand; increased southern curing demand, expected increase in slaughter volume [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures price to oscillate [7] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [8] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, reduced import expected; off - season for downstream demand [8] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8] PVC - Market Performance: V05 increased by 1.9% [8] - Fundamentals: Boosted by macro - sentiment, increased supply, decreased downstream start - up rate, high social inventory [8] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8] Glass - Market Performance: FG05 decreased by 0.2% [8] - Fundamentals: Decreased price, increased production reduction, seasonal inventory decline, weak supply - demand, low valuation [8][9] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [8][9] PP - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: New device production and some device shutdowns on the supply side, opened export window; decreased downstream start - up rate [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [9] Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil price continuously fell to a five - year low [9] - Fundamentals: Supply was affected by sanctions and production increases; demand was in the off - season; inventory was above the five - year average [9] - Trading Strategy: Be used as a short - position configuration, short at high prices after geopolitical premiums [9] Styrene - Market Performance: The main contract oscillated slightly [9] - Fundamentals: High pure benzene and styrene inventories; decreased downstream demand [9] - Trading Strategy: Oscillate weakly in the short - term, go long on styrene or conduct pure benzene reverse arbitrage and long styrene profit in the medium - long term [9] Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 increased by 1.4% [10] - Fundamentals: New device production, price decline, high inventory, weak downstream demand [10] - Trading Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage [10]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is expected to run in a weakly oscillating manner due to a significant decline in crude oil prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil struggles to stabilize as US soybeans are running weakly [2][4]. - Soybean meal is predicted to oscillate at a low level [2][13]. - Soybean No. 1 will be in an oscillating state [2][13]. - For corn, attention should be paid to the spot market [2][15]. - Sugar will run weakly [2][19]. - Cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, with attention to downstream demand [2][24]. - Eggs will maintain an oscillating state [2][29]. - The demand peak for pork will arrive around the Winter Solstice [2][32]. - For peanuts, attention should be paid to the purchases by oil mills [2][38]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all declined, and the trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed oil increased. Spot prices also generally declined, and the basis and price spreads showed certain changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased. From January - November, Malaysia's palm oil and palm - oil product exports increased. In October 2025, Brazil's soybean processing data was released. India may reform its commodity derivatives market. As of December 14, EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed all decreased compared to the previous year. France's winter rapeseed planting area in 2026 is expected to increase [6][8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is -1 [10]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1 - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices of DCE soybean No. 1 and CBOT soybeans declined, while the prices of DCE soybean meal increased slightly. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions showed different trends, and the trading volume decreased, while the inventory decreased [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 16, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to concerns about US export demand and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No. 1 is 0 [14]. 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Spot prices such as the Jinzhou closing price and the Guangdong Shekou price of corn decreased. Futures prices of C2601 and C2603 declined, and the trading volume of C2601 decreased while that of C2603 increased. The basis and price spreads showed certain values [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port prices decreased, Northeast deep - processing corn prices increased slightly, and North China corn prices oscillated. Imported sorghum and barley prices were reported [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [18]. 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The original sugar price, mainstream spot price, and futures main - contract price all declined. The 15 - spread and 59 - spread decreased, while the mainstream spot basis increased [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of December 15, India's sugar production in the 25/26 season increased year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased year - on - year, and exports in November decreased. China's sugar imports in October increased, and attention should be paid to the import policy of syrup and premix. CAOC estimated China's sugar production, consumption, and imports in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season [19][20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is -1 [22]. 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices of CF2605 decreased slightly during the day and increased slightly at night, and the prices of CY2603 increased. ICE US cotton prices declined. Spot prices in some regions increased, and the trading volume and positions of futures showed certain changes [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The overall transaction of cotton spot was still favorable, mainly with low - basis transactions. The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable, but new orders of inland spinning enterprises were insufficient, and some enterprises were expected to have an early holiday. ICE cotton futures declined due to poor export data [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [26]. 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of egg 2601 increased slightly, while that of egg 2602 decreased slightly. The trading volume of both decreased, and the positions of egg 2601 decreased while those of egg 2602 increased. The price spreads and spot prices in different regions remained stable [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [29]. 3.7 Pork - **Fundamental Tracking**: Spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong remained unchanged. Futures prices of different contracts showed different trends, and the trading volume and positions of different contracts also changed. The basis and price spreads showed certain values [34]. - **Market Information**: Some companies registered warehouse receipts in December. The Ministry of Commerce determined that there was dumping of imported related pork and by - products from the EU [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of pork is 0 [36]. 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The spot prices of peanuts in some regions decreased, and the futures prices of PK601 and PK603 declined. The trading volume of PK601 decreased while that of PK603 increased, and the positions of both decreased. The basis and price spreads showed certain values [38]. - **Spot Market Focus**: Peanut prices in different regions such as Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were generally stable or weakly declining [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [40].