多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 05 月 07 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 基本面弱势，现货博弈加剧 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 西北某大厂表示后期有减产意愿，但具体减产时间不确定。随 丰水期到来，四川在五一节之后部分硅厂有复工计划。需求端 仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅 需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9400- 9700 元/吨。后续关注供给端边际变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 硅料现货成交有限，预计大量成交将待五一之后。考虑龙头企 业西南基地复产推迟及部分企业有减产检修计划，我们下修 5 月多晶硅排产至 9.9 万吨左右，环比 4 月有所减少。根据 SMM，截至 4 月 30 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 26.1 万吨，环比 +0.2 万吨。下游原材料库存约 11 万吨，下降至 1 个月水平左 右，并在硅片厂中呈不均匀分布，部分企业无太多囤货有刚需 采购需求，部分企业硅料库存仍较为充足、策略仍以消化在手 库存为主。上下游博弈剧烈，买方基于需求转弱、下游价格下 跌，心理预期价格较低，而卖方考虑下游部分刚需采购、且从 上市公司披露的一季报情况看，即使是 Q1 价格也已致使头部 硅料企业亏损大量现金流，因此买 ...

| 然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 寇帝斯 Z0021810 | 2025年4月30日 | | | | | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 4月29日 | 4月28日 | 演讲 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14550 | 14550 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -85 | -180 | વેર | 52.78% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14200 | 14300 | -100 | -0.70% | | | 非标价差 | -435 | -430 | G5 | -1.16% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.30 | 52.05 | 0.25 | 0.48% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 58.25 | 58.00 | 0.25 | 0.43% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12800 | ...

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 741,051.84 thousand yuan, a decrease of 54.62% year-on-year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -271,813.24 thousand yuan, compared to a profit of 576,269.62 thousand yuan in the previous year, marking a decline of 147.17% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was -263,175.52 thousand yuan, down 145.56% from 577,593.65 thousand yuan in 2023 [1][2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was -538,607.72 thousand yuan, a significant drop of 161.62% from 874,134.96 thousand yuan in the previous year [1][2] Impairment Losses - The total impairment losses for 2024 amounted to 307,073.54 thousand yuan, including credit impairment losses of 12,995.00 thousand yuan, inventory write-down losses of 167,791.93 thousand yuan, and long-term asset impairment losses of 126,286.61 thousand yuan [3][4] - The inventory write-down losses were primarily due to declines in the value of raw materials and inventory products [4] Dividend Policy - The company plans not to distribute cash dividends, issue bonus shares, or conduct capital reserve transfers to share capital for the 2024 fiscal year [2] Q1 2025 Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 90,724.64 thousand yuan, a decrease of 69.57% year-on-year [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -55,801.54 thousand yuan, compared to a profit of 33,061.35 thousand yuan in the same period last year [5] Fundraising Activities - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on July 22, 2021, raising a total of 644,700.00 thousand yuan through its initial public offering [5] - In 2022, the company issued A-shares to specific investors, raising approximately 10,999,999,974.85 yuan, with net proceeds of 10,936,772,174.98 yuan after deducting issuance costs [6] - The total amount raised from both fundraising activities is approximately 174.47 billion yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - Daqo Energy reported a significant decline in performance for 2024, with a revenue of 7.41 billion yuan and a net loss of 2.718 billion yuan, primarily due to a sharp drop in polysilicon prices influenced by supply-demand dynamics in the photovoltaic industry [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 7.41 billion yuan for the reporting period [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 2.718 billion yuan [1]. - The company had total cash reserves of approximately 13.52 billion yuan at the end of the reporting period [1][3]. Group 2: Market Position and Product Focus - Daqo Energy specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-purity polysilicon, which is primarily used in the photovoltaic industry [1]. - The company has a production capacity of 305,000 tons of high-quality, low-energy, and low-cost polysilicon, making it a key player in the domestic polysilicon market [1]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Innovation - The company implemented cost control measures that resulted in a 7% year-on-year decrease in unit production costs [3]. - Daqo Energy filed 177 new patent applications during the reporting period, bringing the total authorized patents to 429 [3]. - The company maintained a strong cash flow with 5.01 billion yuan in cash, 8.11 billion yuan in time deposits, and 400 million yuan in bank acceptance bills, totaling approximately 13.52 billion yuan in reserves [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing during the industry downturn, focusing on global customer expansion and technological iteration to build a differentiated advantage for future recovery [3].

Report Information - Report Date: April 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon futures price rebounded but faced resistance and returned to a weak trend. The closing price of PS2506 was 37,320 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.14%. The trading volume was 116,998 lots, and the open interest was 58,208 lots, with a net increase of 3,116 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The weekly spot price remained weak. The成交 price range of N-type dense materials was 35,000 - 37,000 yuan/ton, with an average成交 price of 35,900 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.10%. By the end of April, the "rush to install" in the photovoltaic terminal was gradually coming to an end, and the positive effect was diminishing. The strong - stimulus policy disrupted the short - and long - term market judgments of the photovoltaic market and formed a negative feedback. The expectation of further production cuts by enterprises was low, and the strong supply - demand expectation had recently reversed. There was also an expectation of increased production after the flood season, and the price would continue to fluctuate weakly after breaking through the support level [4] Market News - As of April 29, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 10 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On April 21, the international energy think - tank Ember released the "2025 Global Electricity Review", showing that in 2024, the proportion of global clean electricity reached 40.9%, the highest since the 1940s. The technological iteration of photovoltaic modules promoted the decline of photovoltaic power generation costs. It was expected that the benchmark levelized cost of electricity for global photovoltaic power generation in 2025 would decrease by 31% compared with 2024. The cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics in China was expected to exceed 300GW in 2025, and the market size was expected to exceed 150 billion yuan [5]

多晶硅期货现在还不可以交割。 多晶硅期货于2025年4月1日起在广州期货交易所正式办理交割业务，但其首次交割将于2025年6月进 行。 2025年3月19日，广州期货交易所公告了多晶硅期货首批指定交割仓库，包括中储发展股份有限公司、 中国物流股份有限公司等6家仓储企业，以及四川永祥股份有限公司、内蒙古大全新能源有限公司等6家 厂库，这些指定交割仓库的确定为多晶硅期货的交割提供了重要的基础设施保障。 目前，广期所正在持续推进多晶硅期货交割业务的准备工作，开展对会员、投资者、交割仓库、质检机 构的业务培训，积极跟踪多晶硅期货产业客户参与情况、仓单注册生成情况，保障多晶硅期货交割业务 平稳运行。 多晶硅期货交割相关规则明确： 1、限仓制度：自2025年5月6日收盘后，非期货公司会员、客户所持有的ps2506合约限仓标准为250手。 限仓制度的实施有助于防止市场过度集中，保障市场的公平性和稳定性。 3、包装和仓储要求：对多晶硅包装物的质量、标识、型号标注等进行了详细规定，要求使用洁净的聚 乙烯袋进行密封包装等。同时明确了交割品的贮存要求，如应储存在清洁、干燥的环境中等，并对仓单 有效期、入库生产日期限制等作出规定，以 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows "weak reality and weak expectation" with weak consumption, high inventory pressure, and the spot market may continue weak shock in the short term [2][3] - The polysilicon market has weakening demand, high inventory, slow de - stocking, and the 2506 contract is cautiously bullish in the short term, with upstream enterprises considering selling hedging on rallies [7][8] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract 2506 opened at 8780 yuan/ton and closed at 8800 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2505 main contract was 188,093 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 69,417 lots, a decrease of 85 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9400 - 9700 (- 50) yuan/ton. Although some silicon plants reduced production or had maintenance due to losses, the expected production capacity in the southwest region during the wet season would gradually be released, and the supply pressure was not significantly relieved [1][2] - **Demand Side**: The demand was weak. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon maintained low operating rates, and downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing. The organic silicon DMC quotation was 11000 - 11800 (- 200) yuan/ton, and the overall operating rate of monomer enterprises was expected to decline [1][2] Strategy The industry's consumption is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The spot market lacks positive drivers in the short term and may continue to oscillate weakly [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures fell sharply, opening at 38,390 yuan/ton and closing at 37,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 55,092 lots, and the trading volume was 80,862 lots [5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a month - on - month change of 3.19%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.53GW (a month - on - month change of 7.19%). The weekly polysilicon output was 22,800 tons (a month - on - month change of 2.24%), and the silicon wafer output was 13.38GW (a month - on - month change of - 1.40%) [5][6] Strategy - In the short term, the 2506 contract is cautiously bullish. Upstream enterprises should consider selling hedging on rallies if there is a significant rebound. - For options, consider buying a small amount of out - of - the - money call options [8]

Report Information - Report Date: April 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The polysilicon futures price rebounded but faced resistance and returned to a weak trend. The spot weekly price remained weak, and the price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation due to factors such as the end of the "rush installation" in the photovoltaic terminal, the reversal of supply - demand expectations, and the expected production increase after the wet season [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The closing price of PS2506 was 37,780 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.05%. The trading volume was 80,862 lots, and the open interest was 55,092 lots, with a net decrease of 948 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The weekly spot price was weak. The成交 price range of N - type dense material was 35,000 - 37,000 yuan/ton, with an average成交 price of 35,900 yuan/ton, a 1.10% week - on - week decrease. By the end of April, the "rush installation" in the photovoltaic terminal was coming to an end, and the supply - demand expectation had reversed. There was also an expected production increase after the wet season, so the price would maintain a weak oscillation [4] 2. Market News - As of April 28, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 10 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In 2024, the global clean power accounted for 40.9%, the highest since the 1940s. The benchmark levelized cost of electricity for global photovoltaic power generation in 2025 is expected to decrease by 31% compared to 2024. China's cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic is expected to exceed 300GW in 2025, and the market size is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4][6][14]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 97.87 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.35% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.14 billion yuan, down 61.37% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 23.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.77% year-on-year, but net profit improved to 1.6 billion yuan, a 19.74% decrease year-on-year, indicating a recovery from previous losses [1][4]. - The company plans to achieve revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2025, with a focus on controlling operating costs within 84 billion yuan. Despite challenges in the silicon material business, other segments such as coal, power transmission, and gold are expected to support revenue and cost control targets [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 97.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.14 billion yuan. The Q1 2025 results showed a revenue of 23.38 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company’s silicon material sales volume decreased by 1.82% to 199,200 tons, with an average selling price dropping approximately 60% to 38,400 yuan per ton, leading to a 33.94% decline in revenue from new energy products and engineering services [2]. - The gold business saw a significant revenue increase of 187.75% to 1.193 billion yuan, despite a decrease in gross margin [2]. Business Segments - The power transmission and transformation sector showed steady growth, with revenues of 22.36 billion yuan from electrical equipment, 15.69 billion yuan from wires and cables, and 4.93 billion yuan from complete power transmission and transformation projects, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20.98%, 15.81%, and 0.26% respectively [3]. - The company secured domestic contracts worth 49.1 billion yuan in the power transmission sector, a year-on-year increase of approximately 21%, and international project contracts exceeded 1.2 billion USD, with a growth rate of over 70% [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue target of 105 billion yuan in 2025, with a focus on maintaining cost control despite ongoing pressures in the silicon material sector. The coal and power transmission segments are expected to contribute positively to the overall performance [4][5]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates net profits of 7.22 billion yuan, 8.39 billion yuan, and 9.13 billion yuan respectively, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 8 times for 2025 [5][12].