Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.32%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.18% [1] - Significant declines were observed in gold and base metals, with oil, gas, coal, chemicals, and steel sectors also experiencing notable drops [1] - Agriculture, semiconductors, and real estate sectors showed considerable declines [1] Sector Highlights - The ultra-high voltage concept stocks rose against the trend, with active movements in the liquor, cultivated diamond, and AI application sectors [1] - In the ETF market, the New Economy ETF from Yinhua and the Education ETF from Bosera increased by 4.73% and 4% respectively [1] - The electric grid equipment sector saw strong gains, with ETFs from Huaxia, Guangfa, and Guotai rising by 2.72%, 2.28%, and 2.23% respectively [1] - The food and beverage sector also performed well, with the liquor ETF from Penghua and the food and beverage ETF from Huabao increasing by 1.85% and 1.55% respectively [1] - The photovoltaic sector was active, with the photovoltaic ETF from Yifangda rising by 1.15% [1] Declines in Specific Sectors - The metals sector faced a wave of limit-downs, with gold stock ETFs such as ICBC, gold stocks ETF, and gold stock ETF hitting the limit down [1] - The semiconductor sector experienced a downturn, with the China-Korea semiconductor ETF dropping by 7% [1]

Group 1 - Hunan Hualing Steel's stock price dropped by 5.1% to 5.95 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 417 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.99%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 41.106 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on April 29, 1999, and listed on August 3, 1999, is located in Changsha, Hunan Province, and primarily engages in the production and sales of steel products [1] - The revenue composition of Hunan Hualing Steel includes: 46.31% from flat products, 25.15% from other businesses and products, 19.28% from long products, and 9.26% from steel pipes [1] Group 2 - Guolian Fund has a significant holding in Hunan Hualing Steel, with Guolian Steel A (168203) increasing its stake by 578,200 shares in the fourth quarter, holding a total of 2.6035 million shares, which represents 7.25% of the fund's net value, making it the third-largest holding [2] - The current estimated floating loss for Guolian Steel A is approximately 833,100 CNY [2] - Guolian Steel A was established on January 1, 2021, with a latest scale of 126 million CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 4.95%, ranking 2748 out of 5579 in its category, while its one-year return is 36.73%, ranking 2014 out of 4285 [2]

2020-2025年中国中厚宽钢带产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：宝钢股份（600019）,鞍钢股份（000898）,首钢股份（000959）,华菱钢铁（000932）,太钢不 锈（000825）,马钢股份（600808）,包钢股份（600010）,柳钢股份（601003）,本钢板材（000761）,酒 钢宏兴（600307） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国中厚宽钢带行业市场研究分析及产业需求研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国中厚宽钢带产量为1708万吨，同比下降4.8%；2025年1-12月 中国中厚宽钢带累计产量为22268万吨，累计增长4.2%。 ...

Report Investment Rating for the Industry - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke sector in the black industry is "oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View of the Report - The market shows strong expectations for demand improvement. Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. There may be some restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival. The coking coal主力合约 is trying to break through the upper pressure level of 1,200, and it is considered to be oscillating with an upward bias in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On Friday, the coking coal主力 contract Jm2605 closed at 1,155.5 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decline compared to the daytime session opening. The coke主力 contract J2605 closed at 1,721.5 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decline compared to the daytime session opening. On Friday night, the coking coal主力 contract closed at 1,194.0 yuan/ton, a 3.33% increase compared to the daytime session closing, and the coke主力 contract closed at 1,746.0 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase compared to the daytime session closing [1] Important News - In 2025, the national fiscal revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease, and fiscal expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, a 1% year - on - year increase [1] - In January 2026, the national steel industry PMI was 47.4, up 2.2 percentage points from 45.2 in December 2025. It remained in the contraction range for the third consecutive month, but the recovery amplitude was significantly larger [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised the trading margin requirements for COMEX gold and silver futures. For non - high - risk accounts, the gold futures margin will be increased from 6% to 8% of the current contract value, and for high - risk accounts, it will be raised from 6.6% to 8.8%. For silver, the non - high - risk account margin will be increased from 11% to 15%, and the high - risk account margin will be raised from 12.1% to 16.5% [1] - According to Mysteel's research, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, a 0.32 - percentage - point increase compared to last week and a 1.02 - percentage - point increase compared to last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, a 0.04 - percentage - point decrease compared to last week and a 0.83 - percentage - point increase compared to last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, a 1.30 - percentage - point decrease compared to last week and a 9.53 - percentage - point decrease compared to last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a 0.12 - million - ton decrease compared to last week and a 2.53 - million - ton increase compared to last year [1] Market Logic - Last week, macroscopically, many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, which is beneficial to the real - estate and its upstream industrial chains. Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the downstream demand is expected to decline, and the auction transaction situation is average [1] - Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented today, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the supply side will cut production, and coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. There may be some restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival [1] Trading Strategy - The coking coal主力 contract has increased long positions and is trying to break through the upper pressure level of 1,200. It should be viewed as oscillating with an upward bias in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the domestic steel industry is experiencing a mixed trend in raw material prices, with export policies driving external prices higher while domestic prices remain under pressure [1][2] - Steel mills are currently in a raw material stocking phase, with iron ore imports increasing but steel inventory remaining low, suggesting a cautious approach to restocking due to weak price differentials and expectations of low post-holiday production [2][3] - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, indicating that previous raw material price increases may have started to impact financial statements [1][2] Group 2 - The average price of hot-rolled coils in major markets is reported at 3355 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 1 CNY/ton from the previous week, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils has decreased by 2.82 million tons week-on-week [3] - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade prices for first-grade coke at 1470 CNY/ton and second-grade coke at 1570 CNY/ton, while inventory levels at major ports have decreased [4] - The price index for domestic iron concentrate shows mixed results, with the price for 66% concentrate at 978 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.72% increase, while overall iron ore inventory at ports continues to rise [5]

每经AI快讯，鞍钢股份(00347.HK)跌超5%，截至发稿跌5.45%，报1.91港元，成交2212.23万港元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

消息面上，1月30日，鞍钢股份发布公告，预期本公司(连同其子公司统称为"本集团")于截至2025年12 月31日止12个月归属于本公司股东的净亏损相比2024年同期将取得下降。归属于本公司股东的净亏损为 人民币40.77亿元左右，同比减亏人民币30.45亿元左右，减亏幅度约42.75%；归属于本公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益后的净亏损42.28亿元左右，比上年同期收窄约41.29%；基本每股亏损0.435元左右。 智通财经APP获悉，鞍钢股份(00347)跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.45%，报1.91港元，成交2212.23万港元。 公告称，亏损减少的原因为2025年，钢铁行业形势较上年有一定好转，但市场整体供强需弱态势局面尚 未根本改善。面对市场压力，本公司持续推进"聚焦价值创造、全面算账经营"工作，加大市场开拓和调 品力度，提升运营效率、深挖能源潜力，优化采购半径、着力系统降本，并先后安排主要产线大修改 造，提升市场竞争力，经营形势整体向好。 ...

公告称，亏损减少的原因为2025年，钢铁行业形势较上年有一定好转，但市场整体供强需弱态势局面尚 未根本改善。面对市场压力，本公司持续推进"聚焦价值创造、全面算账经营"工作，加大市场开拓和调 品力度，提升运营效率、深挖能源潜力，优化采购半径、着力系统降本，并先后安排主要产线大修改 造，提升市场竞争力，经营形势整体向好。 鞍钢股份（000898）(00347)跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.45%，报1.91港元，成交2212.23万港元。 消息面上，1月30日，鞍钢股份发布公告，预期本公司(连同其子公司统称为"本集团")于截至2025年12 月31日止12个月归属于本公司股东的净亏损相比2024年同期将取得下降。归属于本公司股东的净亏损为 人民币40.77亿元左右，同比减亏人民币30.45亿元左右，减亏幅度约42.75%；归属于本公司股东的扣除 非经常性损益后的净亏损42.28亿元左右，比上年同期收窄约41.29%；基本每股亏损0.435元左右。 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14205.89 points, down 0.66%. The STAR 50 Index rose by 0.12%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.27%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 286.24 billion yuan, an increase from the previous day [1][5][7] - Among the 30 sectors tracked by CITIC, 6 sectors saw gains, with telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as electronics leading the increases. Conversely, non-ferrous metals, steel, and food and beverage sectors experienced significant declines [1][5][7] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.36%, the S&P 500 down by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 0.94%. The index tracking the seven major U.S. tech companies also dropped by 0.32% [2][5] Key News Highlights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China conducted a collective study on forward-looking layouts and the development of future industries, with President Xi Jinping delivering an important speech emphasizing the significance of nurturing future industries for national development [9][10] - An important article by Xi Jinping titled "Walking the Path of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics and Building a Financial Power" will be published in the upcoming issue of "Qiushi" magazine, outlining the principles for developing a robust financial system [13][14] - The personal income tax threshold for individual taxpayers has been raised to 1000 yuan per transaction, effective this year [17][18] - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit to China resulted in 12 cooperation agreements, marking a significant step in UK-China relations [19] Driving Factors - The upcoming publication of Xi Jinping's article is expected to influence market sentiment, as it outlines the strategic direction for China's financial development and emphasizes the importance of a strong financial system [8][14] - The A-share market saw 2453 stocks rise, 2896 decline, and 113 remain unchanged, indicating a volatile trading environment influenced by international market fluctuations [8]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-02 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-02 所长 早读 为何贵金属大跌？ 观点分享： 周五，贵金属经历了一场惊心动魄的大波动。白银一度跌超 30%，创下 1980 年 3 月以 来的最大单日跌幅；黄金一度跌 11%，为 1980 年 1 月以来最惨重的一天。 其导火索是美联 储人事预期的突变：特朗普提名凯文·沃什为美联储主席，市场解读为鹰派转向，动摇此前 "央行独立性削弱—货币贬值—实物资产永涨"的叙事逻辑； 另外前期涨幅过大和高杠杆踩踏则是下跌的放大器：1 月黄金最高涨幅 30%、白银近 70%，价格处于历史高位，RSI 超买，交易拥挤，获利盘巨大。 再有交易所风控加码，高杠杆多头资金压力陡增，下跌触发连环止损→被动平仓→价格 续跌的恶性循环。后期贵金属走势将如何发展？我们的相关研究员将会持续关注和分享。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | ★★★★ | 碳酸锂：基本面与市场预期仍然偏强，价格下方空间较为有限。一方面，短期供需偏紧且现 货市场表现坚挺。上周 SMM 行业 ...