新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 沪伦除汇比持续走弱，海外宏观成行情主导因素 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20960元/吨，较上一交易日变化240元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-40元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价20960元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-50元/吨至-40元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录20890元/吨，较上一交易日变化240元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-105元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-10-09日沪铝主力合约开于20900元/吨，收于21090元/吨，较上一交易日变化335元/吨，最 高价达21095元/吨，最低价达到20830元/吨。全天交易日成交159723手，全天交易日持仓203280手。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-10-09氧化铝主力合约开于2886元/吨，收于2875元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-8元/ 吨，变化幅度-0.28%，最高价达到2904元/吨，最低价为2848元/吨。全天交易日成交187736手，全天交易日持 仓294498手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-10-09保太民用生铝采购价格166 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations at high levels, with a current price of $2778.5 per ton, reflecting a slight decline of 0.14% from the opening price [1] Group 2 - On October 9, LME aluminum futures opened at $2749.0, reached a high of $2807.5, and closed at $2782.5, marking an increase of 1.13% [2] - As of October 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 58,894 tons, a decrease of 227 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.56, with an import loss of -2,375.01 yuan per ton, compared to -1,686.9 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 403,475 tons, with canceled receipts decreasing by 2,500 tons, and total aluminum inventory increased by 2,200 tons to 508,600 tons [2]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利近日发布研报称，中国宏桥(01378)是铝行业需求结构性转变与供应受限 的主要受益者，维持对该股的"增持"评级，目标价由26.4港元上调至30.6港元。 大摩表示，维持对中国宏桥"增持"的理由包括：1)供应受限——中国政府设定的4500万吨产能上限限制 了铝行业扩张;2)库存偏低以及三季度潜在刺激措施有助于支撑铝价维持高位;3)成本下行改善利润率 ——产能迁移带来的较低电价及煤价下跌有助于降低公司生产成本，从而提升利润率;4)上下游一体化 运营——整合上游原材料与下游加工业务，有望带来稳健的盈利势头;5)估值具备吸引力——即便公司 股价表现优异，当前估值仍具吸引力，且股息收益率也具有吸引力。 大摩补充称，该股的投资驱动因素包括：1)产量更稳定——相比同行，该公司在环保管理上的优异表现 有助于保持稳定的产量;2)下游需求超预期增长——来自建筑、电力与制造业的需求强劲;3)节约成本 ——通过更低的电价实现成本节约。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley recently released a report stating that China Hongqiao (01378) is a major beneficiary of the structural shift in aluminum industry demand and supply constraints, maintaining an "overweight" rating on the stock and raising the target price from HKD 26.4 to HKD 30.6 [1] Supply Constraints - The Chinese government has set a production capacity cap of 45 million tons, limiting expansion in the aluminum industry [1] - Low inventory levels and potential stimulus measures in Q3 are expected to support high aluminum prices [1] Profitability Improvement - Cost reductions from capacity migration leading to lower electricity prices and declining coal prices are expected to enhance profit margins [1] - The integration of upstream raw materials and downstream processing operations is anticipated to provide stable profit momentum [1] Attractive Valuation - Despite strong stock performance, the current valuation remains attractive, with a compelling dividend yield [1] Investment Drivers - The company exhibits more stable production due to superior environmental management compared to peers [1] - Stronger-than-expected demand growth from construction, power, and manufacturing sectors [1] - Cost savings achieved through lower electricity prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

智通财经APP讯，中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，于2025年10月9日斥资480.5万港元回购17.8万股。 ...

Meeting Overview - The company, Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd., is convening its fifth extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 [1] - The meeting is called by the company's tenth board of directors [2] - The meeting will be held on October 13, 2025, at 2:30 PM [3] Voting Details - Shareholders can vote through both on-site and online methods [5] - On-site voting requires shareholders to attend in person or authorize a representative [6] - Online voting will be available on October 13, 2025, from 9:15 AM to 3:00 PM [4] Attendance Information - The record date for shareholders to attend the meeting is September 30, 2025 [7] - Eligible attendees include ordinary shareholders, company directors, senior management, and appointed lawyers [8][9][10] Meeting Agenda - The meeting will review specific proposals, which are detailed in previous announcements [11] - The proposals require approval from more than half of the voting rights represented at the meeting [11] Registration Process - Shareholders must notify the company of their attendance by October 9, 2025 [12] - Personal shareholders must present identification and proof of share ownership [13] - Corporate shareholders must provide identification and authorization documents for their representatives [13] Contact Information - The company has provided contact details for inquiries regarding the meeting [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of stable supply and slight increase in demand, with suggestions for light - position oscillatory trading [2] - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand, and the option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory and bullish trading [2] - The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of supply slowdown and demand increase, and light - position oscillatory and bullish trading is recommended [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 21,090 yuan/ton, up 410 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures is 2,875 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy is 20,615 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is 4,385 lots, down 1,190 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.67, up 0.13 [2] - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,750.50 US dollars/ton, up 8.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 506,400 tons, up 1,075 tons [2] Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 21,100 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot nationwide is 20,960 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,885 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 485 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 130 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons [2] - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste is 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export quantity of aluminum scrap and waste is 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2] Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is - 11.99 million tons, down 30.30 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 53.70 million tons, down 3.00 million tons [2] - The production of aluminum products is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 53.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy is 2.91 million tons, up 0.42 million tons [2] - The automobile production is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles; the national real estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2] Option Situation - The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.11, up 0.0027; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 13.23%, up 0.0094 [2] Industry News - The Fed shows a willingness to cut interest rates further this year, but many officials are cautious due to inflation concerns. S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook [2] - China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points [2] - Many new energy vehicle companies announce their September delivery data, with some achieving high - growth or record - high delivery volumes [2] Alumina View Summary - Affected by the reduced shipments in Guinea due to climate reasons, the domestic bauxite inventory and imports will continue to decline slightly. The domestic supply of alumina may remain stable, and the demand will increase slightly [2] Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The supply of alumina is still excessive, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have good profit conditions. The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum may increase slightly, and the demand is boosted by policies and application consumption [2] Casting Aluminum Alloy View Summary - Benefiting from the strong operation of aluminum prices and tight raw material supply, the cost of scrap aluminum rises, and the supply of cast aluminum will decrease. The demand for cast aluminum will increase after the double - festivals and due to policy support [2]

格隆汇10月9日丨南山铝业(600219.SH)公布，截止2025年9月30日，公司通过集中竞价交易方式已累计 回购公司股份8097.45万股，占公司总股本的比例约为0.70%，回购成交的最高价为4.12元/股，最低价为 3.24元/股，支付的资金总额为人民币3.11亿元（不含交易费用）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo initiates coverage on the U.S. aluminum industry with an "Overweight" rating and sets a target price of $40 per share for the sector [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - The initiation of coverage indicates a positive outlook for the U.S. aluminum sector, suggesting potential growth and investment opportunities [1] - The target price of $40 reflects expectations of strong performance and market conditions favorable for aluminum producers [1]