Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound after a period of adjustment, with overall trading volume continuing to shrink, indicating cautious sentiment among investors [1][9] - Despite signs of short-term adjustments, the overall downward space for the index is limited, suggesting a phase of consolidation rather than a significant decline [1][9] - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in the medium term, driven by ongoing policy support and improved liquidity conditions [1][9] Sector Analysis Military Industry - The military sector has shown significant growth, with a 25.27% increase in the second half of 2020 and a 16.30% increase in the first half of 2023, outperforming the broader market [6] - Continued government support for military modernization and geopolitical tensions are expected to drive further investment in this sector [6] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 suggests that investors should look for opportunities in aviation, defense information technology, and military materials, while being cautious of high valuations [6] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has seen a notable price increase due to factors such as the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from central banks [7][8] - The outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and increased investment demand, although caution is advised against chasing prices after significant gains [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain rationality and strategic discipline, focusing on high-quality sectors and selecting stocks with solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations [2][10] - It is recommended to avoid stocks that have risen significantly but show questionable performance or negative expectations, optimizing portfolio structure during adjustments [2][10] - Aggressive investors may consider technology growth stocks that have corrected, while conservative investors should wait for market stabilization [2][10]

Core Views - The market index has reached a critical level at 3600 points, indicating a significant divide in market sentiment and trend [2][11] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking and external disturbances, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact supported by policy backing and industrial upgrades [3][12] - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern in the medium term, with abundant structural opportunities requiring enhanced stock selection and timing skills [11][12] Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73 points, up 23.43 points, with a trading volume of 18,447 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [6][11] - The market showed mixed performance with sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone and energy metals experiencing significant gains, while precious metals and banking sectors faced declines [7][8][11] Sector Analysis - The Hainan Free Trade Zone saw a surge due to the upcoming full island "closure" on December 18, which will significantly increase the proportion of zero-tariff imports [7] - The energy metals sector rose sharply following government announcements of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [8] - The securities sector has shown resilience, with expectations of improved performance driven by increased trading volumes and favorable economic conditions [9] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding high-flying stocks and selectively reducing positions in sectors that have seen substantial gains, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower concept [3][10] - Medium-term investments should target growth sectors with high elasticity, including AI infrastructure, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robotics, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3][12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a gradual upward trend, with a notable recovery in market risk appetite, approaching the 3500-point mark, supported by a low interest rate environment and expectations of policy stimulus [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a broad-based rally, with over 4200 stocks rising, indicating a strong profit-making effect and increased trading volume [3]. - The market's upward movement is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, reflecting a desensitization to tariff impacts [1]. - Key sectors leading the gains include telecommunications, power equipment, electronics, and construction materials, while banking and utilities experienced declines [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trajectory due to low interest rates and a recovering risk appetite, particularly in high-risk sectors like non-bank finance, media, and military industry [1]. - July is anticipated to be driven by event-based themes, with potential high-low sector rotations, particularly in consumer goods and robotics, as well as semiconductor localization trends [2]. - The innovation drug sector is projected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent tensions in the Middle East have caused short-term impacts on A-shares, but these are expected to be temporary and limited in substance [1] - A-shares are anticipated to return to a narrow range of fluctuations after the short-term adjustment, with a gradual upward trend expected as trade conflict concerns ease [1][2] - The market is entering a policy window period in late June, with expectations for new policies aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development [2] Group 2 - In June, the market is likely to experience event-driven thematic trends, with a focus on low-position sectors such as consumption, pharmaceuticals, and technology growth [3] - The promotion of consumption and expansion of domestic demand is a key task for 2025, with expectations for policy support in sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [3] - The trend of domestic robotization is expected to continue, with opportunities arising in related sectors such as sensors and controllers [3] - The semiconductor industry is moving towards domestic production, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, and IC design [3] - The military industry is expected to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various military sub-sectors [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [3] - The AI sector is expected to see new catalysts, particularly with updates from MiniMax, which may lead to renewed interest in AI-related investments [3] Group 3 - The market showed a preference for safe-haven assets, with energy-related sectors rising amidst the tensions in the Middle East [4] - Popular sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and banking experienced adjustments, while oil and petrochemical sectors saw gains due to increased risk aversion [4] - Overall market performance was characterized by more declines than gains, with only the oil and petrochemical sector rising [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market remains stable despite tensions in the Middle East, continuing a pattern of slow upward movement amidst trade conflict concerns [1][2]. Market Outlook - The window for tariff events is closing, with a new policy window opening in late June, which may lead to a break in the current consolidation pattern if effective policies are implemented [2]. - The market is currently focused on tariff-related expectations, including U.S. court rulings and potential trade negotiations between China and the U.S. [2]. Hot Sectors - Consumption and healthcare sectors are expected to be key areas of focus, with an emphasis on domestic demand expansion as a priority for 2025 [3]. - The robotics sector is anticipated to grow, with advancements in various types of robots and related technologies [3]. - The semiconductor industry is on a path toward domestic production, with attention on equipment, wafer manufacturing, and IC design [3]. - The military industry is expected to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [3]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a growth phase after several years of adjustment, with positive profit growth expected [3]. - The AI sector is poised for new catalysts, particularly with updates from emerging models that are competitive with leading international models [3]. Market Review - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with previous leaders like innovative pharmaceuticals and banking showing signs of adjustment [4]. - Defensive sectors such as coal, utilities, and oil & gas led the market, indicating a shift in investor preference [4]. - Overall, the market maintained a positive earning effect, with over 2200 stocks rising despite some sectors facing declines [4].

Market Analysis - The market is slowly moving forward with limited fluctuations in indices, as concerns over trade conflicts ease with new trade negotiations between China and the US [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential for continued slow upward movement [1] Future Outlook - The window for tariff events is closing, and a new policy window is expected to open in mid to late June, which may lead to market optimism if effective policies are implemented [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has indicated that measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality development will be rolled out by the end of June [2] - Short-term fluctuations may occur in popular sectors like banking and innovative pharmaceuticals, while TMT and technology growth sectors may see rebounds after sufficient adjustments [2] Hot Sectors - June is likely to be driven by event-based themes, with attention on low-position sectors such as consumption, pharmaceuticals, and adequately adjusted technology growth [3] - The focus on expanding domestic consumption is a key task for 2025, with expectations for policy support in sectors like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [3] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands [3] - The semiconductor localization trend remains strong, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [3] - Innovative pharmaceuticals are entering a growth phase after a four-year adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2025 [3] Market Review - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining above the 5-day moving average and showing signs of divergence in moving averages [4] - Popular sectors like banking and innovative pharmaceuticals maintained strong performance, with over 2300 stocks rising, indicating a favorable earning environment [4] - Leading sectors included non-ferrous metals, media, beauty care, pharmaceutical biology, and communications, while sectors like home appliances, coal, food and beverage, agriculture, and real estate faced declines [4]