Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group held an online performance briefing on September 12, 2025, addressing investor inquiries regarding the company's strategic initiatives and financial performance [1] Group 1: Solid-State Battery Development - The company is advancing its solid-state battery initiatives, having established a lithium salt production R&D center and a plan for lithium sulfide synthesis process [1] - Collaboration with universities is ongoing to develop lithium sulfide and sulfide solid electrolytes, with sample production expected to be completed within the year and pilot line construction starting in 2026 [1] - A joint laboratory with Sichuan University aims to complete pilot line construction by 2027, with sample production and customer testing anticipated to be finalized this year [1] Group 2: Lithium Resource Exploration - The company is actively exploring high-quality lithium resources both domestically and internationally, adhering to a cautious decision-making process [1] - The company plans to disclose information regarding its share buyback plan in due course [1] Group 3: Market Position and Financial Performance - The company reported an increase in gross margin compared to the same period last year, with expectations for further improvement as self-sourced mineral ratios increase [1] - The company anticipates fluctuations in the lithium cycle over the next 2-3 years, but strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets is expected to create opportunities [1] - The company emphasizes that shareholder reductions are due to personal financial needs and do not reflect a negative outlook on the company's investment value [1] Group 4: Business Progress - Exploration work for the Kamativi lithium mine is ongoing, while updates on the company's civil explosives business remain unspecified [1] - The company has secured lithium resources such as Lijiagou and KMC and plans to continue expanding its lithium resource development [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The short - term consumption side of the lithium carbonate market still has support, with the current consumption peak season and downstream rigid procurement needs. The market in September shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and there may be a temporary supply shortage. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate, and may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 11, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 70,960 yuan/ton and closed at 71,000 yuan/ton, with a 1.25% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 426,041 lots, and the open interest was 323,456 lots (the previous day's open interest was 340,814 lots). The current basis is 2,130 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,391 lots, a change of 290 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 71,000 - 74,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 70,000 - 71,200 yuan/ton, also a change of - 600 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories' price - setting and trading enthusiasm are still relatively high. As it is the industry's peak demand season, downstream material factories have rigid procurement needs and strong procurement willingness at relatively low prices [1] - Lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lithium mica has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and a temporary supply shortage is expected [1] - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons. The outputs from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes all increased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. The downstream inventory continued to increase, while the inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased significantly, and the downstream restocking willingness is good [2] Strategy - The futures market fluctuates in the short term. With the weakening of mine - end disturbances, the peak consumption season provides some support. The short - term supply - demand pattern is good, and the inventory continues to decline, providing some support to the market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term and may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [3] Trading Recommendations - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and sell - hedging can be carried out on rallies [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14] - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,580 - 72,420 [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][10] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,756 tons, a 0.28% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,644 tons, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][10] - Cost: The cost of外购锂辉石精矿 is 73,549 yuan/ton, a 0.46% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,761 yuan/ton. The cost of外购锂云母 is 77,368 yuan/ton, a 0.44% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,563 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [9] - Other factors: On September 11, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,850 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 140,092 tons, a 0.73% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased [10][11] -利多 factors: Manufacturers' production cut and shutdown plans, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [12] -利空 factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [13] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Data Overview**: The table shows the changes in prices, basis, and upstream prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide. For example, the price of lithium ore (6%) decreased by 0.59%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.82% [15] - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 66.41% with no change. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.46%, and the monthly processing cost increased by 4.49%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96%, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% [19] - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3.39%, and the monthly production increased by 4.96%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84%, and the monthly export increased by 34.94% [19]

Core Viewpoint - The early resumption of production at the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine by CATL has interrupted the rebound of lithium carbonate prices, suggesting that low price levels may persist longer than expected, indicating deeper industry dynamics at play [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 11, lithium carbonate futures opened high but closed up only 1.25%, maintaining the 70,000 yuan mark, yet this is over 20% lower than the mid-August peak of 90,000 yuan per ton, marking a failed rebound [3][6]. - The market volatility was triggered by CATL's faster-than-expected resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine, which is projected to reach an annual capacity of 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025, accounting for over half of Jiangxi's total output [5][6]. - Following the resumption news, lithium carbonate futures dropped to 69,800 yuan per ton, hitting the daily limit down, and closed at 70,300 yuan, with the entire lithium mining sector experiencing a downturn [6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The unexpected increase in supply from the Jianxiawo mine has disrupted previous market expectations of a three to six-month production halt, signaling that leading companies like CATL have resource control capabilities [7]. - The Jianxiawo mine's production contributes approximately 6,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent monthly, enhancing market supply significantly [7]. - As of August 23, social inventory of lithium carbonate reached 141,500 tons, with downstream battery manufacturers increasing their inventory by 10,800 tons to 51,500 tons, indicating pressure on the market [9]. Group 3: Policy and Industry Changes - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective from July, has raised short-term concerns about supply contraction but is expected to accelerate the elimination of small mining capacities in the long run, potentially reducing domestic lithium mica production by about 12,000 tons, or 2.3% of global supply [11]. - Leading companies are leveraging economies of scale and technological advancements to lower lithium extraction costs, with some projects nearing the low-cost levels of overseas salt lakes [11]. Group 4: Demand Trends - In August 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.395 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, but the growth rate is beginning to slow down [12]. - The energy storage market is expanding but is unlikely to balance supply and demand in the short term, as energy storage batteries consume only 70% of the lithium carbonate used in power batteries [12]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with CATL focusing on securing raw material advantages while also advancing research into lithium metal batteries, while BYD is targeting sodium batteries, which could replace approximately 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate [14]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The ongoing price decline of lithium carbonate presents both opportunities and challenges for midstream and downstream companies, as a decrease of 100,000 yuan per ton could lower vehicle costs by about 20,000 yuan, aiding electric vehicles in approaching the price point of fuel vehicles [14]. - Historical trends indicate that price drops often lead to price wars among leading companies, with CATL needing to maintain battery profit margins while BYD's vertical integration allows for further price reductions [14][16]. - The concentration of resources, technological substitution paths, and a slowdown in market demand are collectively reshaping the competitive dynamics within the new energy industry, suggesting that the volatility in lithium carbonate prices is far from over [16].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that by Q2 2025, overseas lithium resource projects will experience an increase in volume but a decrease in price, reflecting a challenging operational environment [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Q3, domestic carbonate lithium prices have rebounded from a low point, leading to increased production enthusiasm in overseas lithium mines [1] - The overall production guidance for the fiscal year 2026 is expected to grow, although the process of clearing overseas supply may be delayed [1] Group 2: Supply Risks and Demand - Current supply risks related to domestic lithium mica have not been eliminated, which, combined with stronger-than-expected downstream demand, suggests a lower risk of significant price declines for lithium [1] - If there are unexpected disruptions in mica production, it could lead to a restoration of the supply-demand balance and a potential price rebound [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on low-cost targets and companies with high-quality mining assets that may benefit from the rebound in lithium prices as they touch the bottom [1]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities indicates that in Q2 2025, overseas lithium resource projects are experiencing an increase in volume but a decline in price, with domestic lithium carbonate prices rebounding since Q3 2025, leading to increased production enthusiasm in overseas lithium mines [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Domestic lithium mica supply risks have not been eliminated, and coupled with stronger-than-expected downstream demand, the risk of a significant decline in lithium prices is considered low [1] - If there are unexpected disruptions in mica production, it may lead to a restoration of the supply-demand balance and a rebound in prices [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to pay attention to low-cost targets and companies with high-quality mining assets that may benefit from the rebound in lithium prices during the recovery phase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively monitoring domestic and international lithium resources and is open to potential investments in lithium resource opportunities [2] Company Summary - The company expressed its commitment to keeping an eye on lithium resources both domestically and internationally [2] - The company indicated that it would consider making investments in lithium resources if suitable opportunities arise [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's short position in Ganfeng Lithium (1772.HK) decreased to 3.19% on September 8, down from 3.70% previously [1]

Group 1 - The company Yongxing Materials (002756.SZ) has obtained the mining license for its subsidiary Huqiao Mining in accordance with legal regulations, and its production operations are currently normal [1] - The company will strictly adhere to government requirements in its future operations [1] Group 2 - An investor raised concerns on the interactive platform regarding the company's stock price lagging over 30% behind other lithium mining companies [3] - The investor questioned the compliance and legality of the mining certificate for the company's Chashan mine, which is categorized as a ceramic soil mine, and whether it needs to be converted to a lithium mining certificate or a by-product lithium mining certificate [3] - The investor also inquired if a license conversion would require a production halt [3]

碳酸锂产业日报 2025/9/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 71,000.00 | +280.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -159,932.00 | +9072.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 323,456.00 | -17358.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -280.00 | +300.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 38,101.00 | 0.00 | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 72,850.00 | -600.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 70,600.00 | -600.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 1,850.00 | -880.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 895.00 | -27.00↓ 磷锂铝石平均 ...