近日，塞尔维亚政府表示，由于未能获得美国方面对塞尔维亚石油公司的豁免许可，该公司旗下关键炼 油厂——潘切沃炼油厂已被迫停止运转。此举并非因能源短缺或战火波及，而是源于美国财政部外国资 产控制办公室对俄资关联企业的制裁延续。塞尔维亚并非冲突方，亦未参与制裁，却在这一轮大国博弈 中首当其冲。 燃料价格尚未大幅波动，但运输、农业、工业等关键领域已弥漫观望情绪。普通民众的日常生活、企业 的正常运转，乃至国家经济的稳定，都与这家公司的命运紧密相连。 塞尔维亚石油公司为何成制裁靶子？ "没有潘切沃炼油厂，我们就无法生存。它对我们的公民、企业、医疗、学校都至关重要。因为没有燃 料，可能连面包店都无法每天营业"，塞尔维亚矿业和能源部长杜布拉夫卡·杰多维奇·汉达诺维奇曾在今 年11月做出上述表态。 要理解潘切沃炼油厂为何被拖入制裁漩涡，首先必须理解它在塞尔维亚经济结构中的关键位置。作为全 国唯一活跃的大型炼油设施，潘切沃炼油厂所属的塞尔维亚石油公司承担着约八成的燃料供应，在全国 运营着约330座加油站，覆盖主要交通与城市网络，其产品渗透到交通、工业、农业、医疗、供暖等日 常运行环节。可以说，若没有塞尔维亚石油公司，该国大部分产 ...

研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 F03108405 Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 @chinastock.com.cn | 研究员： | | | 2025/12/9 | 2025/12/8 | 2025/12/2 | 2025/11/11 | Δ日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴晓蓉 | | FU主力 | 2418 | 2508 | 2469 | 2671 | -90 | | 期货从业证号： | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 18.7 | 17.7 | 21.0 | 20.5 | 1.0 | | | | FU仓单(吨) | 6100 | 26090 | 41870 | 29740 | -19990 | | F03108405 | | LU主力 | 3014 | 3089 | 3035 | 3262 | -75 | | 投资咨询从业证号： | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 6.9 | -0.2 | | Z0021 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market overview: Supply side - Main refineries' operation rate increased by 0.3 percentage points, and independent refineries' by 0.4 percentage points. Main refineries' gasoline and diesel production rose this week, and local refineries' slightly increased. The diesel - gasoline ratio remained stable at 1.32. Demand side - Market procurement sentiment was cautious, gasoline vehicle single - deal demand was average, ship - deal improved slightly but still did not reach production - sales balance; diesel production - sales declined. Inventory - Commercial gasoline and diesel inventories decreased this week. Gasoline was 10.8 million tons, down 220,000 tons (-2.0%) week - on - week; diesel was 14.02 million tons, down 130,000 tons (-0.9%) week - on - week. Local refineries' gasoline and diesel inventories increased, while social inventories decreased [6]. - Future outlook: Supply side - Planned operating units are mainly for diesel, combined with some refineries' temporary production cuts, so gasoline output is expected to decline and diesel to increase. Demand side - Gasoline is supported by summer travel but traders expect demand to weaken, with middle and lower reaches purchasing on - demand; diesel demand is expected to improve marginally due to the start of fishing in the East China Sea and less rainfall, but high crack spreads limit real - demand improvement. Price - The cost is affected by the expectation of eased US - Russia relations, reducing geopolitical risk premium. Gasoline wholesale price may decline due to high - price - suppressed transactions, while diesel may stop falling and stabilize. Retail profit is expected to widen slightly as the decline in wholesale price is deeper. Inventory - Gasoline inventory may continue to accumulate due to low ship - deals and weak vehicle - deals, and diesel still has the risk of inventory accumulation despite the start of "Golden September and Silver October" stocking [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - Gasoline market price: On August 14, 2025, the national average was 7,892 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan from the previous day, 51 yuan week - on - week, 77 yuan month - on - month, and 823 yuan year - on - year. Different regions showed varying degrees of decline [13]. - Diesel market price: On August 14, 2025, the national average was 6,749 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day, 38 yuan week - on - week, 120 yuan month - on - month, and 544 yuan year - on - year [13]. 3.2 Profit - Main refineries' refining profit was 833 yuan/ton on August 15, 2025, down 106 yuan week - on - week, up 124 yuan month - on - month, and up 560 yuan year - on - year [17]. - Independent refineries' refining profit was 309 yuan/ton on August 15, 2025, up 85 yuan week - on - week, up 131 yuan month - on - month, and up 102 yuan year - on - year [17]. - Shandong local refineries' refining profit was 367 yuan/ton on August 15, 2025, up 136 yuan week - on - week, up 37 yuan month - on - month, and down 37 yuan year - on - year [17]. 3.3 Supply -开工 - China's refinery operation rate was 72.2% on August 15, 2025, up 0.3 percentage points week - on - week, 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, and up 3.1 percentage points year - on - year. Main refineries' operation rate was 82.7%, up 0.3 percentage points week - on - week; independent refineries' was 56.6%, up 0.4 percentage points week - on - week; Shandong local refineries' was 47.5%, up 0.7 percentage points week - on - week [31]. - China's crude oil processing volume was 14.49 million tons on August 15, 2025, up 60,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons month - on - month, and up 510,000 tons year - on - year [31]. 3.4 Supply - Maintenance Plan - As of August 15, 2025, the total maintenance capacity was 59.2 million tons/year, down 11 million tons/year month - on - month, with Yanshan Petrochemical's maintenance completed [39]. 3.5 Supply - Output - Gasoline output in China was 3.02 million tons on August 15, 2025, up 10,000 tons week - on - week, 20,000 tons month - on - month, and down 180,000 tons year - on - year. Diesel output was 3.98 million tons, up 20,000 tons week - on - week, 40,000 tons month - on - month, and up 110,000 tons year - on - year [41]. - The diesel - gasoline ratio remained stable at 1.32 [41]. 3.6 Sales Volume - Shandong refineries' average weekly production - sales ratio: Gasoline production - sales was 95%, down 5% week - on - week; diesel production - sales declined 3% to 97% [53]. 3.7 Inventory - Gasoline commercial inventory was 10.8 million tons on August 15, 2025, down 220,000 tons (-2.0%) week - on - week. Diesel commercial inventory was 14.02 million tons, down 130,000 tons (-0.9%) week - on - week [79]. - Local refineries' gasoline and diesel inventories increased, while social inventories decreased [6].

Core Viewpoint - The oil distribution market in the Republika Srpska of Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently stable despite the production halt at the Serbian Pancevo refinery, but the long-term impacts remain uncertain [1] Group 1: Current Market Situation - The main issues are arising from fuel supply disruptions at NIS and Gazprom gas stations, while other distributors have different suppliers [1] - Crna Gora Oil Company has a supply contract with Croatia's INA, and other distributors are importing oil through the ports of Ploče and Koper [1] Group 2: Regional Impact - The current state of NIS in Serbia is detrimental to the entire region, with previously operational refineries in Sisak, Pancevo, Rijeka, Skopje, and Brod, now only Rijeka and Skopje retaining partial capacity [1] - The oil and petroleum products market is unpredictable, influenced by actions of major global players, with smaller markets often facing collateral impacts [1] Group 3: Price Changes - Due to a decline in global crude oil prices, fuel prices at gas stations in the Republika Srpska have decreased by 5 pfennigs per liter [1] - The halt in production at the Pancevo refinery is attributed to U.S. sanctions against NIS, which resulted in a shortage of raw materials and the cessation of operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Syria plans to construct a new refinery with a processing capacity of 150,000 barrels per day to address the decline in its existing oil production infrastructure and support economic recovery efforts following the civil war [1] Industry Summary - The current main refinery in Syria, Baniyas, has seen its actual processing capacity drop to 95,000 barrels per day due to aging facilities [1] - Syria's total oil production capacity is estimated to be around 130,000 barrels per day [1] - In 2010, Syria's daily oil export volume reached 380,000 barrels, highlighting a significant decline in production capacity due to the civil war [1] Company Summary - The new refinery project is part of the recovery plan promised by the new government following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, aiming to revitalize the Syrian economy [1]

中化新网讯近日，哈萨克斯坦能源部长叶尔兰.阿肯热诺夫宣布，该国将通过新建大型炼油厂与扩建现 有设施相结合的方式，力争到2040年将原油加工能力提升一倍以上。 产能扩张同步带动成品油产量目标升级，该国计划到2040年将成品油产量从今年预计的1455万吨增至 2920万吨，实现规模翻倍。该国早些时候披露，这一系列扩产计划需投资150亿至190亿美元，既提升产 能规模，更将大幅提升加工效率。 哈萨克斯坦当前炼油产能为1800万吨/年。阿肯热诺夫透露，产能提升将分阶段推进：2025至2032年 间，通过扩建现有装置将炼油规模提升至3000万吨/年;2040年前再投产一座年产能1000万吨的大型新炼 厂，届时总产能将达4000万吨/年，较当前水平实现翻倍。 值得关注的是，尽管哈萨克斯坦多次重申遵守OPEC+减产协议，但作为非OPEC成员国，该国多年来持 续超配额产油，且尚未充分弥补超额产量。今年依托雪佛龙等国际能源巨头参与的扩建项目，其原油产 量进一步提升，超产态势仍在延续。(石景文) ...

产能扩张同步带动成品油产量目标升级，该国计划到2040年将成品油产量从今年预计的1455万吨增至 2920万吨，实现规模翻倍。该国早些时候披露，这一系列扩产计划需投资150亿至190亿美元，既提升产 能规模，更将大幅提升加工效率。 值得关注的是，尽管哈萨克斯坦多次重申遵守OPEC+减产协议，但作为非OPEC成员国，该国多年来持 续超配额产油，且尚未充分弥补超额产量。今年依托雪佛龙等国际能源巨头参与的扩建项目，其原油产 量进一步提升，超产态势仍在延续。 (石景文) 哈萨克斯坦当前炼油产能为1800万吨/年。阿肯热诺夫透露，产能提升将分阶段推进：2025至2032年 间，通过扩建现有装置将炼油规模提升至3000万吨/年;2040年前再投产一座年产能1000万吨的大型新炼 厂，届时总产能将达4000万吨/年，较当前水平实现翻倍。 中化新网讯 近日，哈萨克斯坦能源部长叶尔兰·阿肯热诺夫宣布，该国将通过新建大型炼油厂与扩建现 有设施相结合的方式，力争到2040年将原油加工能力提升一倍以上。 ...

2010年，叙利亚石油日出口量曾达38万桶。但在内战期间，叙利亚经济与基础设施尤其是石油生产体系 遭受毁灭性打击。阿萨德政权于2024年12月倒台后，取而代之的新政府承诺将全力推动叙利亚经济复 苏，新建炼油厂正是这一复苏计划的重要组成部分。 (肖化) 中化新网讯 11月29日，叙利亚能源部长向政府旗下的艾哈巴里亚电视台证实，该国计划新建一座日加 工能力15万桶的炼油厂。 该电视台报道称，由于部分设施老化，叙利亚现有主力炼油厂巴尼亚斯炼油厂目前实际日加工量已降至 9.5万桶;该电视台同时估算，叙利亚当前全国石油总产能约为13万桶/日。 ...

Group 1: Automotive Industry - South Korea's automotive exports are projected to decline for the first time in five years in 2025, with an estimated export volume of 2.71 to 2.72 million vehicles in 2023, representing a decrease of 2.3% to 2.6% compared to the previous year [2] - Exports of South Korean cars to the U.S. from January to October 2023 reached 1.10746 million units, accounting for 49.1% of total exports, which is a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [2] - The U.S. tariff policy and protectionism are increasing uncertainty for South Korean exports in 2024, despite a reduction in tariffs from 25% to 15% under the Korea-U.S. tariff agreement [2] Group 2: Industrial Products - Several South Korean industrial products have faced significant challenges due to U.S. tariffs, with some companies reporting a complete halt in exports to the U.S. since June 2023 [3] - A South Korean company exporting industrial bolts and nuts has seen its products valued at 2 billion KRW stuck in warehouses due to terminated orders from U.S. clients following steel tariffs [3] - The number of inquiries to the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency regarding tariffs has surged, with 7,722 cases reported from February 18 to late November 2023, highlighting confusion among companies due to frequent changes in U.S. customs standards [3] Group 3: Currency Fluctuations - The high volatility of the Korean won is creating unprecedented challenges for South Korean export industries, undermining the traditional benefits of a strong currency [4] - Companies in high-cost dollar-settled industries, such as refining and steel, are experiencing severe impacts from unpredictable exchange rate fluctuations [4] - For instance, SK Innovation reported that a 10% increase in the exchange rate would reduce its pre-tax profits by 154.4 billion KRW, while major steel companies like POSCO indicated that a similar increase could lead to a net profit decrease of 548.5 billion KRW [4]

迫于西方的最新制裁，许多和俄罗斯有能源联系的国家都在"另谋出路"。 重磅消息，罗马尼亚将没收国内第三大的俄罗斯炼油厂。 路透社报道，当地时间12月3日，罗马尼亚政府批准没收俄罗斯石油巨头卢克公司的资产。 这其中就包括该公司在罗马尼亚境内的第三大炼油厂，外加多达350多个油气设施。 早些时候，罗马尼亚能源部长博格丹·伊万表示，他们必须控制卢克石油在该国的子公司，以确保能源 系统的稳定。 罗马尼亚也支持欧盟加大对俄罗斯的制裁，类似的情况还发生在保加利亚等国。 目前欧盟也就全面停止进口俄罗斯天然气的日期达成了一致，最迟于2027年11月1日执行。 预计接下来制裁将扩大至俄罗斯的石油进口上，欧洲看起来是要动真格了，彻底切断同莫斯科的能源联 系。 德韦弗还表示俄罗斯已对比利时发出了"永久报复"的威胁，所以简单来说就是他怂了。 紧接着，欧盟委员会则提交了两份新的方案，以便在未来两年向乌克兰提供900亿欧元的援助。 其中一条仍是动用俄罗斯的资产，但不构成没收，其二是在国际市场上借款。 筹集到的资金将以贷款融资的形式发放给基辅，但只有在莫斯科支付战争赔款后才需要偿还。 与此同时，欧盟对乌克兰的支持则在加大，并计划动用更多的俄 ...