Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Wait or buy on dips for copper, buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum, wait or short on rallies for nickel, conduct range trading for tin, silver, and gold [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][24] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][41][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, supply disruptions and macro - economic uncertainties affect prices; in the energy and chemicals sector, factors like production capacity, demand, and cost determine the market trends [10][20][33] Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: A - share market showed differentiation on Thursday. Growth sectors were relatively strong. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and is long - term bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The interest - rate bond market had wide - range fluctuations on Thursday. After a panic - driven sell - off, it may enter a short - term bottom - building phase. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal and coking**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a price increase in the coal industry. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price had narrow - range fluctuations on Thursday. The short - term situation is a combination of weak industry fundamentals and strong macro - factors. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the RB2601 contract focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increase of glass manufacturers has stimulated the market. Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the 1160 - 1200 support level [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and the approaching holiday stocking period may support copper prices. It is recommended to wait or buy on dips for short - term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Demand is entering the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks and consider a short AD and long AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: Supply improvement is limited, and downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the SHFE tin 10 - contract focusing on the 26.5 - 28 million yuan/ton range [16] - **Silver and gold**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic soda**: Considering downstream restocking and future alumina production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: Weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: Affected by factors such as typhoons and pre - holiday sentiment, it is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation, focusing on the 15500 support level [26] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract's 1600 - 1630 support level and the 1 - 5 spread positive - arbitrage opportunity [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is decreasing, and demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand are both changing. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28] - **Soda ash**: Affected by glass price increases and production capacity changes, it is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The spot market is strong, but there is downward pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and supply - demand changes, it is expected to have range fluctuations, focusing on the 4550 - 4800 range [33] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [35] - **Jujubes**: The market is currently quiet. It is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation and then a rebound [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, and be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 05 and 07 contracts. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: Short - term pre - holiday demand is weakening, and long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious when shorting the 12 and 01 contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: New crop supply will ease the tight supply of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - side approach, wait for a rebound to short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean meal**: Supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips, focusing on the 2900 support level of the M2601 contract [43] - **Oils**: After the tariff event's negative impact is over, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to take a long - on - dips approach and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44][50]

Core Viewpoint - Longda Food (002726.SZ) announced that its controlling shareholder, Lanrun Development, had 0.70% of its shares judicially frozen, raising concerns after the company recently abandoned the acquisition of a highly indebted subsidiary, Wucang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [1][2] Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Lanrun Development's judicially frozen shares amount to 7.51 million, representing 2.56% of its holdings and 0.7% of the total share capital, with the freeze effective from September 23, 2025, to September 22, 2028 [1] - Lanrun Development holds 27.23% of Longda Food's shares and is actively working to resolve the judicial freeze, although there is a possibility of forced execution of the frozen shares [1] Group 2: Financial Situation - As of August 2, Lanrun Development's stock pledge rate for Longda Food was 31.4%, with a total of 9.228 million shares pledged, accounting for 8.55% of the total share capital [2] - Longda Food recently abandoned the acquisition of Wucang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, which has a debt ratio of 98.73% and significant short-term and long-term liabilities totaling approximately 1.95 billion [2] - Longda Food has faced declining revenue for four consecutive years, with a net profit of 32.28 million for the first half of 2025, down 42.15% year-on-year [2] - As of June 30, 2025, Longda Food had approximately 973 million in cash and interest-bearing liabilities of about 3.219 billion, with short-term debt making up 57.72% of the total [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yisheng Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations in financing and stock performance, with a notable decrease in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 [1][2][3] Group 2 - On September 24, Yisheng's stock rose by 0.46%, with a trading volume of 44.93 million yuan. The financing buy-in amount was 5.00 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 6.04 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy-in of -1.03 million yuan [1] - As of September 24, the total financing and securities lending balance for Yisheng was 533 million yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 5.76% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] - The company reported a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.16 million yuan, down 96.64% year-on-year [2] - The main business income composition includes chicken revenue at 76.18%, pig revenue at 15.47%, livestock equipment revenue at 5.48%, dairy revenue at 1.72%, and other income at 1.14% [2] - Yisheng has distributed a total of 1.69 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 602 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 3.00% to 48,000, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 2.91% to 15,601 shares [2][3]

Group 1 - Xinjiang is the largest provincial-level administrative region in China, featuring diverse landscapes and rich cultural heritage [1][4][8] - The region has 28 branch line airports, making it comparable in distance from Kashgar to Hami to the distance from Beijing to Guangdong [4] - Xinjiang's geography includes the Tianshan Mountains, Altai Mountains, and Kunlun Mountains, with significant basins like the Junggar Basin and Tarim Basin [8][11] Group 2 - Xinjiang is home to numerous natural wonders, including high-altitude lakes and vast grasslands, contributing to its reputation as a tourist destination [17][29][36] - The region's unique climate allows for the cultivation of various fruits, with notable products including grapes from Turpan and melons from Hami [110][111][114] Group 3 - Xinjiang has a rich cultural scene, with traditional markets (Bazaars) showcasing local crafts and foods, reflecting the region's diverse ethnic heritage [70][72][74] - The region is known for its vibrant music and dance culture, with performances that highlight the unique traditions of its ethnic groups [96][98] Group 4 - Xinjiang is a significant player in the renewable energy sector, with wind energy resources accounting for about one-fifth of the national total [117] - The region has developed a comprehensive wind power industry, leading in the production of wind turbines and solar energy technologies [118][121] Group 5 - Modern agricultural practices are being implemented across Xinjiang, with advancements in technology leading to increased yields in various crops [121][125] - The region's diverse agricultural products and unique industries, such as the development of seabuckthorn and chickpeas, are contributing to local economic growth [125][128]

Group 1 - Henan has established itself as a crucial grain production area, focusing on food security and enhancing crop yields through technology and management [1][3] - The province has developed a diversified food supply system, with significant production in oilseeds, edible fungi, and livestock, leading to the establishment of 18 industrial chains [3][25] - Henan's food industry has evolved from being a grain storage hub to a significant player in the global food market, producing a variety of products including traditional and emerging snacks [5][10] Group 2 - The production of spicy strips in Henan has reached over 10 billion packages annually, supported by 75,000 tons of high-quality wheat flour [10][12] - The establishment of wheat industrial alliances has ensured stable raw material supply for food companies, enhancing their market confidence [12][14] - The province is transitioning from primary processing to deep processing in the food industry, with government support for technological advancements [16][19] Group 3 - The Central Plains Food Laboratory has become a key driver of innovation, collaborating with enterprises to develop healthier food processing techniques [19][22] - Henan produces a significant portion of various food products in China, including half of the country's ham sausages and three-fifths of dumplings [25] - The province is enhancing its meat processing capabilities and implementing modern cold chain logistics for meat products [29][31] Group 4 - New food products like spicy strips and tea beverages are gaining popularity, with some brands expanding internationally [33][35] - The government is facilitating brand promotion and consumer engagement through various activities and logistics improvements [35][38] - The number of large-scale agricultural processing enterprises in Henan has reached 6,103, with plans for further technological integration in the food sector [38]

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The dairy sector is experiencing a significant supply contraction, with the potential end of capacity reduction in sight. The milk price has been declining for four years, leading to an industry loss for 1.5 years, resulting in an approximate 8% reduction in dairy cow capacity as of August 2025. The upcoming third-quarter silage feed procurement season may accelerate the clearing of livestock due to increased funding needs [4][27] - The beef sector is at a turning point in a super cycle, with domestic beef cattle capacity being fully cleared. The prolonged loss cycle has driven a deep reduction in breeding cows, which is expected to lead to a decline in beef cattle inventory starting in 2024. The supply of beef is anticipated to enter a contraction phase in the second half of 2025 [5][50] Summary by Sections Dairy Sector - Supply contraction is nearing its end, with milk prices expected to rebound due to a tightening supply-demand balance. The reduction in capacity is expected to stabilize by the end of 2025 or the first half of 2026, supported by seasonal demand during the upcoming holidays and long-term improvements in consumption driven by child-rearing subsidies [4][27] - The financial performance of dairy companies varies, with some showing resilience against falling milk prices due to unique business advantages, while others face significant pressure [6] - The dairy industry is characterized by a longer production cycle compared to other livestock, leading to a more prolonged adjustment period in capacity [6][27] Beef Sector - The beef cattle market is experiencing a super cycle, with a significant reduction in domestic beef cattle capacity. The prolonged loss cycle has led to a decrease in breeding cows, which will impact beef supply in the coming years [5][50] - External factors affecting beef supply are diminishing, with a long-term global beef supply gap emerging due to various pressures on major production areas [5] - The demand for beef is expected to grow steadily, driven by rising income levels and health consciousness among consumers, with a notable reliance on imported beef to meet domestic demand [50][51] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in both the dairy and beef sectors. Specific companies to watch include China Shengmu, Guangming Meat Industry, and Fucheng Co., for beef, and Yuran Dairy, China Shengmu, and Modern Dairy for dairy [6][7]

秋色过半，丰收在望。放眼齐鲁大地，已是一番"十里西畴熟稻香，垂垂山果挂青黄"的景象。恰如庄稼 离不开雨露滋养，这幅丰收图景，同样离不开金融活水的精准灌溉。 近年来，建行山东省分行深耕乡村沃土，将金融服务融入乡村振兴脉络。截至8月末，全行涉农贷款余 额2221亿元，较年初新增186.5亿元。数据背后，是一座座拔地而起的智慧大棚、一条条融合发展的产 业链、一家家活力迸发的农业企业，更是越来越多农民鼓起来的钱袋子。 助力高标准农田建设，筑牢粮食安全"压舱石" 建设高标准农田，是筑牢国家粮食安全根基、促进农民增收、推动乡村振兴的关键举措。济宁市鱼台县 作为山东省重要粮食产区，"鱼台大米"年产量超7亿斤，在保障区域粮食供应、促进地方经济发展等方 面发挥着重要作用。 近年来，鱼台县全面落实"藏粮于地、藏粮于技"战略，大力推进高标准农田建设，重点实施灌溉排水、 田间道路、土地平整、农田防护及农机购置等工程，全力提升粮食综合产能。 在这一过程中，建行山东省分行积极发挥金融支撑作用。前期，建行济宁鱼台支行主动对接农业部门与 项目单位，深入了解项目需求，为鱼台县高标准农田改造提升项目量身定制金融服务方案。最终，成功 为项目投放高 ...

Core Insights - The pig prices have reached a new low for the year, with average prices at 12.83 yuan/kg and piglet prices at 24.08 yuan/kg as of September 23 [1] - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has seen a decline of 1.66% in early trading, with significant capital inflow of over 81 million yuan in the past five trading days, indicating a counter-trend investment strategy [1] - The profitability of pig farming has dropped below cost levels, with external piglet farming losses at -199.31 yuan per head and self-breeding losses at -24.44 yuan per head, marking a return to losses after over 16 months of profitability [2] - A meeting on pig production capacity control was held on September 16, with plans to reduce the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million heads, bringing the total to about 39.5 million heads [2] - The industry is expected to undergo accelerated capacity reduction due to the dual pressures of "anti-involution" policies and losses leading to production cuts, suggesting a potential upward trend in pig prices and sector performance [3] Industry Summary - The pig farming sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices and profits declining sharply, leading to a comprehensive loss situation for farmers [2] - The current market conditions indicate an oversupply of pigs, with increased supply from group farms and stricter environmental regulations affecting piglet replenishment sentiment [1][2] - The livestock farming ETF closely tracks the swine farming industry, with a significant portion of its holdings in major pig farming companies, indicating a concentrated investment in this sector [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to gradually rise due to positive fundamentals, with Dalian palm oil futures potentially following suit and starting an upward trend [1]. - Soybean oil is under pressure from seasonal harvest and Sino - US trade disputes, but the expected decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter may provide long - term support [1]. Sugar - International raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern due to oversupply, while domestic sugar is likely to continue its weak performance [3][4]. Grains and Oilseeds - US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic oilseed meal is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating rhythm due to sufficient supply [6]. Cotton - Medium - term domestic cotton prices may face pressure due to weak demand and high hedging pressure [9]. Corn - The corn market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with attention on new grain purchase rhythms and opening prices [10]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to oscillate within a bottom - range due to sufficient supply and uncertain demand [15]. Pigs - The pig market has a clear supply recovery pattern, with near - month contracts maintaining weak adjustments, and attention on 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse spread opportunities [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8620 yuan/ton, palm oil spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.32% to 9270 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.29% to 10210 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The three - oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 4.35% to 288 yuan/ton, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 1.98% to 206 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 1.00% to 505 yuan/ton [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of SR2601 decreased by 0.16% to 5452 yuan/ton, and the price of SR2605 decreased by 0.26% to 5432 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.51% to 5800 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.43% to 5820 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year to 1116.21 million tons, and national sugar sales increased by 12.87% year - on - year to 1000 million tons [3]. Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2600 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3980 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 10.53% to 252 yuan/ton, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 14.81% to 155 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal 2601 spread increased by 2.85% to 506 yuan/ton [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of CF2605 decreased by 0.66% to 13812 yuan/ton, and the price of CF2601 decreased by 0.80% to 13610 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.34% to 15146 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.39% to 15224 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Warehouse inventory decreased by 20.6% month - on - month to 117.59 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 3.4% month - on - month to 86.21 million tons [9]. Corn - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of C2511 decreased by 0.97% to 2147 yuan/ton, and the price of CS2511 decreased by 1.30% to 2431 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port increased by 0.88% to 2300 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn starch in Changchun remained unchanged at 2560 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spreads**: The C11 - 3 spread decreased by 200.00% to - 1 yuan/ton, and the CS11 - 3 spread decreased by 45.00% to - 29 yuan/ton [10]. Eggs - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the price of the JD11 contract decreased by 1.19% to 3075 yuan/500KG, and the price of the JD10 contract decreased by 1.42% to 2982 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - feed ratio increased by 7.95% to 2.85, and the breeding profit increased by 135.13% to 3.20 yuan/feather [14]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of LH2511 decreased by 0.23% to 12795 yuan/ton, and the price of LH2601 decreased by 0.04% to 13345 yuan/ton [17]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 12700 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12850 yuan/ton [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The sample slaughterhouse daily volume decreased by 0.24% to 153248, and the self - breeding profit per week decreased by 245.13% to - 24 yuan/head [17].

Group 1 - The core business of the company includes providing foundation and site leveling engineering as a subcontractor in Hong Kong, as well as engaging in the trade of alcoholic beverages in mainland China [1] - The company is actively seeking industry opportunities with significant growth potential, including modern aquaculture operations and related value-added products [1] - The company is considering opportunities in livestock farming and animal husbandry, which may involve modern farm operations and related agricultural product production [1] Group 2 - The company is evaluating a potential acquisition of a licensed virtual asset trading platform, which may include establishing and operating regulated cryptocurrency exchange services and related fintech solutions [1] - The board believes that these strategic initiatives can leverage the company's resources and expertise while exploring new market opportunities, thereby enhancing competitiveness and creating sustainable value for shareholders [1]