每日市场观察 2025 年 9 月 17 日 【今日关注】 周二市场小幅收涨，成交额 2.37 万亿，比上一交易日小幅增加约 700 亿。行业过半数上涨，计算机、机械、汽车、商贸等行业涨幅居前，农 业、银行、有色、军工等行业跌幅居前。 指数上涨，但行业和个股分化仍然较重，马斯克表示其机器人即将大规 模量产，以及国内一些关于人形机器人的地方性政策文件，对机器人板 块起到了催化作用。周二上涨行业居多数，涨幅居前的计算机、机械、 汽车整个行业，其上涨大多与机器人有关，而与机器人相关度不高的其 他个股其涨幅存在明显差异，从而导致板块内个股分化较大。算力国产 替代也有一定涨幅，但上涨个股范围收窄，板块内同样存在个股分化现 象，由此可见，市场资金仍然围绕科技板块挖掘机会，但这种分化的现 象以及板块一定程度上的冲高回落，表明市场资金存在着较大分歧，这 可能也会导致后续市场的震荡有所加剧。 大盘总体上仍处于缩量震荡阶段，对高位板块应持有一定的谨慎态度， 中美博弈阶段性上升，国产替代领域的半导体板块近期相对稳定，其中 的模拟芯片细分板块位置不高，美联储降息预期升温，黄金期货价格继 续创出新高，可能造就这一板块新一轮的投资机会。 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: ETF Performance Tracking and Fund Flow Weekly Report (2025.09.08 - 2025.09.12) - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, overseas ETF funds showed an overall outflow trend, with a significant decline compared to the previous two weeks, recording a net outflow of 0.60 billion yuan. Foreign investors' allocation attitude this week was inclined to wait - and - see. The electronics and computer sectors continued to attract attention, but short - term attention should still be paid to changes in overseas risk preferences and the support of domestic policies to confirm future trends [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Wide - based ETFs - **Fund Inflow/Outflow**: Some wide - based ETFs had significant fund inflows and outflows. For example, Tianhong ChiNext ETF had a fund inflow of 41.60 billion yuan, while Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF had a fund outflow of 41.89 billion yuan [4] - **Performance**: Different wide - based ETFs had varying weekly price changes. For instance, Tianhong ChiNext ETF had a weekly increase of 2.11%, and Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF had a 5.38% increase [4] 3.2 Industry Theme, Smart Beta, and Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs - **Industry Theme ETFs**: The average weekly price change of industry theme ETFs varied across different sectors. The average weekly price change of some sectors reached up to 5.30%, while others were relatively lower [6] - **Smart Beta ETFs**: The average weekly price change of Smart Beta ETFs also showed differences among sectors such as technology, medicine, and finance. There were also corresponding fund inflows and outflows [10][12] - **Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs**: The average weekly price change and fund inflow/outflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs were presented. For example, the average weekly price change of some Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs was around 3.17% [28] 3.3 Equity ETFs - **Statistics**: The report provided statistics on the number, scale, and trading volume of equity ETFs corresponding to different indices. For example, the funds corresponding to the CSI 300 index had a total scale of 327.41 billion yuan, accounting for 30.28% of the total scale [14] 3.4 Overseas ETFs - **Overall Fund Flow**: Overseas ETFs had a net outflow of 0.60 billion yuan this week. In terms of style indices, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 attracted funds, while the ChiNext Index, SSE 50, CSI A500, and CSI 300 shifted from inflows to outflows, with the CSI 300 being significantly sold off [16] - **Industry - level Allocation**: At the industry level, the electronics and computer sectors received significant additional allocations, while sectors such as automobiles, power equipment, and banks showed net fund outflows [16] - **Individual Stock Allocation**: Some individual stocks like BYD and CATL saw fund withdrawals, while Shenghong Technology was the most - increased stock with an increase of 0.05 billion yuan [16][21]

港股市场流动性正迎来内外双重支撑。 国际方面，美元指数走势对港股市场的影响尤为显著。从历史数据来看，恒生指数与美元指数呈明显负 相关，美元走弱时国际资金更倾向流入港股等新兴市场。 9月或将重启降息，8月以来，特朗普政府持续施压美联储大幅降息，要求将联邦基金利率直降300基点 以缓解财政压力，并试图通过人事调整削弱美联储独立性。市场预计2025年美联储或仍有两次降息。从 历史上看，联储预防式降息周期中港股表现好，因此在当前降息周期持续的背景下，港股市场正吸引着 越来越多的全球配置资金关注。 【港股科技相关ETF】 科技全产业链——港股通科技ETF基金（159101） 互联网龙头——恒生互联网ETF（513330） 每日经济新闻 从国内资金来看，南向资金已成为港股市场的 "稳定器"。年初至今南向资金已累计净流入超10000亿港 元，其中商贸零售（含互联网电商）、通信、电子、传媒、计算机等科技行业获净流入居前。这一趋势 既源于国内对科技创新的持续政策支持，也得益于全球 AI 等科技行业景气度回升，内外资金的 "同向 发力"，为港股科技板块提供了坚实的流动性支撑。 ...

两融数据显示，该股最新（9月16日）两融余额为11.50亿元，其中，融资余额为11.50亿元，近10日增加 1.69亿元，环比增长17.21%。 公司发布的半年报数据显示，上半年公司共实现营业收入1.02亿元，同比增长38.29%，实现净利 润-4995.26万元，同比下降29.84%，基本每股收益为-0.2000元。（数据宝） 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 信息发展股价再创历史新高，该股近期呈不断突破新高之势，近一个月累计有10个交易日股价刷新历史 纪录。截至09:31，该股目前上涨2.71%，股价报82.31元，成交73.02万股，成交金额5962.17万元，换手 率0.29%，该股最新A股总市值达204.33亿元，该股A股流通市值204.32亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，信息发展所属的计算机行业，目前整体跌幅为0.51%，行业内，目前股价上 涨的有53只，涨幅居前的有淳中科技、旋极信息、经纬恒润等，涨幅分别为5.13%、4.22%、3.84%。股 价下跌的有299只，跌幅居前的有*ST东通、曙光数创、云涌科技等，跌幅分别为19.95%、3.4 ...

编者荐语： 煤炭、汽车、钢铁、传媒、商贸零售、电子、计算机和房地产的行业PE估值（TTM）分别处于近十年历史80.06%、81.76%、82.81%、84.16%、90.11%、 92.84%、97.82%和100.00%分位水平，应注意投资风险。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 1、巴菲特指标： 当前A股巴菲特指标为87.14%，处于相对较高区间，高于安全区间。 2、估值历史百分位水平： 宽基指数方面： 重点关注指数估值表现 1、重点关注指数PE估值水平 注：1.图中横坐标为指数相对历史值的分位数,图标下方数值为指标当前值; 2.所处分位数越高，表示当前估值相对其自身历史估值越高; 3.估值分位数数据取自近10年，基日至今不足10年指数,初始时间取自上市首日; 4.上期数据来自2025年8月29日。 2 雷占关注指数DR仕信水平 重点关注指数PE估值水平 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ...

平安中证2000增强策略ETF（159556）基金经理为俞瑶、李严。 9月17日，恒宝股份涨5.08%，截至发稿，报26.28元/股，成交17.15亿元，换手率11.07%，总市值186.15 亿元。 资料显示，恒宝股份有限公司位于江苏省丹阳市横塘工业区，成立日期1996年9月24日，上市日期2007 年1月10日，公司主营业务涉及磁条卡、密码卡等卡类产品及其相关操作系统(COS)和票证产品的研 发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：制卡类78.19%，模块类21.27%，票证类0.31%，其他(补 充)0.24%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，平安基金旗下1只基金重仓恒宝股份。平安中证2000增强策略ETF（159556）二季度持有股 数5700股，占基金净值比例为0.4%，位居第二大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约7239元。 平安中证2000增强策略ETF（159556）成立日期2023年12月27日，最新规模2872.67万。今年以来收益 29.16%，同类排名1638/4222；近一年收益73.3%，同类排名1204/3804；成立以来收益19.32%。 截至发稿，俞瑶累计任职时间3年319天，现 ...

个股方面，9月16日有1975只个股获融资净买入，净买入金额在5000万元以上的有155股。其中，23股获 融资净买入额超2亿元。中科曙光获融资净买入额居首，净买入15.06亿元；融资净买入金额居前的还有 胜宏科技、剑桥科技、寒武纪、协创数据、中国船舶、贵州茅台、指南针、阳光电源等股。 Wind统计显示，9月16日，申万31个一级行业中有24个行业获融资净买入，其中，电子行业获融资净买 入额居首，当日净买入45.26亿元；获融资净买入居前的行业还有机械设备、计算机、非银金融、汽 车、化工、通信等，净买入金额均超8亿元。 ...

截至9月16日，市场融资余额合计2.38万亿元，较前一交易日增加225.11亿元，这已经是融资余额连续8 个交易日持续增加，其中，沪市融资余额12058.56亿元，较前一交易日增加122.04亿元;深市融资余额 11621.12亿元，较前一交易日增加103.36亿元;北交所融资余额78.44亿元，较前一交易日减少2875.59万 元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，具体到个股，9月16日共有1975只股获融资净买入，净买入金额在千万元以 上的有677只，其中63只融资净买入额超亿元。中科曙光融资净买入额居首，当日净买入15.06亿元，其 次是胜宏科技、剑桥科技，融资净买入金额分别为7.43亿元、5.55亿元，融资净买入金额居前的还有寒 武纪-U、协创数据、中国船舶等。 9月16日融资客净买入金额排名 代码简称9月16日涨跌幅(%) 融资净买入额(万元) 最新融资余额(万元) 占流通市值比例 分行业统计，获融资客净买入超亿元个股中，电子、机械设备、计算机等行业最为集中，分别有16只、 10只、7只个股上榜。板块分布上，大手笔净买入个股中，主板有41只，创业板有17只，科创板有5只。 融资客大手笔净买入个股中，从最新 ...

Market Overview - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.21%. The STAR Market 50 increased by 1.32%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 0.68%. The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.03% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on September 16 were comprehensive (+3.63%), machinery and equipment (+2.06%), computer (+2.06%), retail (+1.96%), and automotive (+1.82%). The worst-performing sectors included agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.29%), banking (-1.15%), non-ferrous metals (-0.99%), defense and military industry (-0.5%), and food and beverage (-0.38%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on September 16 was 23,670.69 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.188 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights Consumption Strategy - In the medium to long term, the first "systematic 'slow' bull" is expected to release a wealth effect, potentially slowly boosting consumption. Insurance funds and foreign capital entering the market are favorable for consumer blue chips, with positive signals from central Huijin increasing holdings in liquor ETFs. A top-down perspective suggests that the broad consumption sector is likely to benefit [5] - The market perceives that the wealth effect of the bull market is not significant. However, it is believed that the bull market can indirectly drive the wealth effect through a specific transmission path: A-share bull market → stabilization of second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities → stabilization of second-hand housing prices in other cities → recovery of real estate wealth effect. Investment opportunities in the consumption sector are worth noting, particularly in blue-chip leaders and emerging growth areas [5] - The driving factors include support from policies, funds, and sentiment, indicating that the first "systematic 'slow' bull" has quietly arrived, which may enhance the Sharpe ratio of the A-share market and indirectly boost consumption [5] Bond Market Insights - The current bond market adjustment differs significantly from historical bear markets, as the fundamentals, monetary policy, and curve shapes do not resemble past bear markets. Instead, it is more akin to an emotional adjustment under continuous risk preference shocks, anti-involution, and fund fee reduction [7][8] - There is a need to gradually break the mindset of a one-sided decline in yields and adapt to a fluctuating market pattern. However, based on the economic fundamentals and the core tone of moderate policy easing, a major bull-bear reversal has not yet been established [7][8] - The three core signals for a bull-to-bear transition include: 1. Policy bottom: Signs of marginal tightening in macro policies or expressions of tightening monetary policy 2. Fundamental bottom: Consistent and positive surprises in high-frequency and economic data 3. Sentiment bottom: A fragile and crowded trading structure triggered by the above two signals, leading to self-reinforcing sell-offs and deleveraging [8][9]

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market showed a low opening and high closing trend, with a slight increase. The expectation is that the bond market will hit a new low for the year, targeting the low point around September 30, 2024, when the policy shifted last year [1][11] - The A-share market is maintaining a bullish trend, with a significant increase in trading volume and volatility after breaking the high point from October 8 last year. The outlook suggests that the stock market will continue to outperform the bond market [1][11] - The overall market is experiencing a V-shaped reversal, with the ChiNext index leading the gains among the three major indices. The total trading volume reached 2.36 trillion, with over 3,500 stocks rising, indicating a strong market consolidation at high levels [2][14] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The current Equity Risk Premium (ERP) for the A-share market is at 4.02%, which is significantly lower than historical lows observed in 2008, 2015, and 2021, indicating potential for further declines [2][14] - The ratio of total A-share market capitalization to GDP is currently at 0.75, which is 77% and 43% lower than the historical peaks in January 2008 and June 2015, respectively, suggesting room for growth in market capitalization relative to the economy [2][14] - The ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization is at 1.7, indicating that the process of reallocating household funds into the stock market may still be ongoing [2][14] Group 3: U.S. Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Nasdaq increasing by 0.94%, the Dow Jones by 0.11%, and the S&P 500 by 0.47%. The weak employment data has set the stage for a rate cut in September, although the market's pricing of a 50 basis point cut may be overly optimistic [3][17] - The U.S. economy remains robust, with second-quarter GDP growth revised upward, supporting a stable employment market. The labor market's slowdown provides a basis for the Federal Reserve's dovish stance [3][17] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1151, down 83 basis points from the previous close. The weak non-farm data has led to a decline in the dollar, while the offshore RMB has returned to an upward trend [4][23] - The recommendation is to short the dollar with a stop loss at the 99 level, while also suggesting that investing in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, or precious metals like gold and silver may be better options compared to shorting the dollar [4][23] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index rose by 0.66%, with coal and construction materials leading the gains, while corn and live pig sectors lagged. The index is supported at the intersection of the 60-day and half-year moving averages [5][26] - Despite the potential for a breakdown below support levels, the strong stock market and weak bond market combination suggests a bullish outlook for commodities, with a focus on long positions while managing risk [5][26] Group 6: Important Policies and News - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released measures to expand service consumption, proposing 19 initiatives to stimulate consumer activity [6][29] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for global financial governance reform in response to new challenges in the financial stability framework [6][29] - Guangdong province is promoting AI integration in the toy industry, exploring new market opportunities through the combination of AI, toys, and robotics [6][29]