Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 64,280, with a change of 100 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 402,816, and the open interest was 322,860. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 63,920, the trading volume was 49,743, and the open interest was 106,621 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 11,603 hands, a decrease of 1,588 compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was - 530, and spot - 2511 was - 170. The basis of 2509 - 2511 was 360 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 674, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,405 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,750, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,150 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,557 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,750 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,150 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Project Plan**: Lithium Harvest, a subsidiary of the US Sustainable Projects Group, plans to build a lithium carbonate production facility with an annual output of 9,000 tons in Alberta, Canada, using direct lithium extraction technology (DLE). It is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2026, doubling the existing lithium production capacity in Canada [4]. - **Battery Export**: In June 2025, China's power and other batteries exported a total of 24.4GWh, a month - on - month increase of 27.9% and a year - on - year increase of 22.5%. From January to June, the cumulative export reached 127.3GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 56.8% [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral view [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be relatively loose, and the social inventory of domestic lithium carbonate has increased compared to the previous week. The report suggests that investors should temporarily wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On July 8, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 65,100 yuan/ton, 64,240 yuan/ton, 63,740 yuan/ton, and 63,740 yuan/ton respectively, showing increases of 1,500 yuan/ton, 320 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 545,405 lots, an increase of 332,101 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 338,034 lots, an increase of 15,500 lots [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 12,655 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also showed certain changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts increased by 1,180 yuan/ton to 860 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and amblygonite increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 658 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained, domestic) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 57,470 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Some production enterprises have maintenance plans, which may affect production. For example, some lithium carbonate production enterprises in Jiangxi will be under maintenance for 15 - 20 days, potentially affecting 1,000 tons of production. However, some new production capacities are expected to be put into operation, such as the 1,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity of Guangdong Haizhou Lithium Battery may be put into production in July 2025 [2]. - **Demand**: The production volume of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate materials in China in July may increase month - on - month. For example, the first - phase 25,000 - ton project of Hubei Ruipai New Energy Technology may be commissioned at the end of June and reach full production by the end of the year [3][4]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. Due to national policy - guided capacity clearance and expected expansion of the automotive scale, the prices of domestic lithium carbonate production and imports have risen, but the supply - demand situation remains complex. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On July 7, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 63,600 yuan/ton, 63,920 yuan/ton, 63,520 yuan/ton, and 63,520 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the active contract was 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 213,304 lots, a decrease of 134,425 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 322,534 lots, a decrease of 2,754 lots from the previous day [1] - **Inventory and Spreads**: The inventory of the near - month to consecutive - one contracts was 15,555 tons, a decrease of 5,481 tons from the previous day; the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 1,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Lithium Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 654 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous day. The average prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained mostly unchanged [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,600 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Lithium - Related Products**: The prices of products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and negative electrode materials showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1] Company News - **Yuntu Holdings**: On July 7, 2025, Yuntu Holdings announced that it owns three phosphate mines in Leibo County, Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province. The Ajuluogang phosphate mine's 2.9 - million - ton annual mining and beneficiation project started construction in March and is under accelerated construction; the Niuniuzhai East phosphate mine's 4 - million - ton annual mining project is optimizing the mining and beneficiation plan design; the Niuniuzhai West phosphate mine is promoting the "exploration - to - mining" procedures. After production, it will meet the local yellow phosphorus production needs and transport products to production bases in Hubei and Guangxi via waterways [2] - **Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium**: Ganfeng Lithium's project has been officially put into production. Tianqi Lithium's 50,700 - ton wet - brine project in Shijian, Jianglin City may be put into production in October 2020, and the total output will reach 201,000 tons per year [3] - **Other Companies**: Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 10,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate drying project may be put into production in January 2022; Zijin Hengyuan's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity may be completed and put into production on January 9, 2021. Some companies' production lines are under maintenance or upgrading, and some projects are in the process of construction or commissioning [3] Production and Supply - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate in China in July may increase month - on - month, and the supply is expected to be loose. The inventories of smelters, traders, and downstream enterprises have increased compared with the previous week [1][3] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The production of lithium hydroxide in China in October may decrease month - on - month. The inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises in July may increase month - on - month, and the monthly export volume may decrease month - on - month [3][4] - **Phosphoric Acid and Related Products**: The production of phosphoric acid in China has decreased compared with the previous week. The production of lithium iron phosphate in China may increase month - on - month, and the production and export volume of some related products may also increase [3][4] Investment Strategy - Due to the complex supply - demand situation of domestic lithium carbonate, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the pattern of medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will fluctuate downward in Q4 due to the end of technological upgrades and increased production [3]. - Strategies recommended include LC09 - 11 calendar spread trading, shorting LC2511 at high prices, and selling call options at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to oscillate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.1% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 25.9% [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan (0.60%); the trading volume was 213,300 lots, down 134,429 lots (- 38.66%); the open interest was 322,535 lots, down 2,753 lots (- 0.85%). For the LC2511 contract, the closing price was 63,340 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan (0.51%); the trading volume was 20,140 lots, down 15,366 lots (- 43.28%); the open interest was 97,999 lots, up 950 lots (0.98%) [9]. - **Month - spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 month - spread was 480 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (9.09%); the LC09 - 11 month - spread was 320 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (23%); the LC11 - 12 month - spread was - 260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (- 13%) [12]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily prices of various types of lithium ore showed little change, except for the fastmarkets Li₂O:6% lithium ore, which decreased by 2.5 dollars/ton (- 0.37%) [16]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.41%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.4%); the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 52,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 0.08%); the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF for China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.1 dollars/kg, unchanged; the fastmarkets price was 8.05 dollars/kg, down 0.15 dollars/kg (- 1.82%) [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The electrolyte - lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the electric - hydrogen - electric - carbon spread was 420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (- 37.31%); the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF for Japan and South Korea and the domestic price was 399.86 yuan/ton, up 26.51 yuan (7.10%) [21]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The prices of various downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showed different degrees of increase, while the prices of some products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte remained unchanged [23][24]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse - receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract showed little change [27]. - **Warehouse - receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts was 15,555 lots, a decrease of 5,481 lots compared to the previous day, with different changes in each warehouse or sub - warehouse [32]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends of lithium carbonate [30].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core View - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. The production and inventory of various lithium - related products and other chemical products have different trends, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the pressure level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Price**: On July 4, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 600, 660, 620, and 620 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the active contract decreased by 800 yuan/ton [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 347,729 lots, a decrease of 73,238 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 325,288 lots, a decrease of 8,769 lots from the previous day [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 21,036 tons, a decrease of 1,844 tons from the previous day [1] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts increased by 60 yuan/ton; the spread between continuous - one and continuous - two contracts decreased by 40 yuan/ton; the spread between continuous - two and continuous - three contracts remained unchanged. The basis increased by 1,000 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 653 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous day; the average prices of various types of lithium mica also increased to varying degrees [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 200 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 200 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Battery Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and other materials also had different changes [1] 3.3 Company News - **Codal Mining**: It signed a purchase agreement for the expansion of the DMS processing plant's spodumene concentrate in the Bougouni lithium project with Hainan Mining. The DMS processing plant has produced over 1,000 tons of spodumene concentrate and is working on obtaining export licenses. The first - phase project is expected to produce 100,000 - 120,000 tons of spodumene concentrate annually [2] - **Anhui Anwa New Energy**: Its self - developed world's first 3.0 - level new solid - state battery production line's first batch of engineering samples was successfully launched. The first - generation product has an energy density of over 300Wh/kg, and the company plans to launch the third - generation all - solid - state battery with an energy density exceeding 500Wh/kg in 2027 [2] - **Ganfeng Lithium**: Its Mali Gooldariness lithium project's first - phase with an annual capacity of 0.6 million tons of fine ore has been put into production [3] - **Tianqi Lithium**: Its 35,000 - ton wet - process project in Jianglin City may be put into production in June 2026, and the total capacity will reach 215,000 tons per year [3] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The domestic lithium carbonate production in July may increase month - on - month, but the import volume has decreased. The production of lithium hydroxide may decrease in October. The production of lithium iron phosphate and other products may increase in July [3][5] - **Demand**: The demand for lithium salts from downstream cathode material factories is mainly based on rigid procurement. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in July may increase month - on - month [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - The report focuses on lithium carbonate with a monthly review cycle, written on July 1, 2025 [1] 2. Market Review - In June, affected by supply - demand changes and relevant stimulus policies, the futures price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, increasing by 2420 yuan/ton (4.04%) for the whole month. The highest price of the main contract 2509 was 63600 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 58400 yuan/ton. As of June 30, the average spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61300 yuan/ton, the average spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59700 yuan/ton, the futures closed at 62260 yuan/ton, and the basis widened to 960 yuan/ton. The futures price fluctuated frequently, with a downward trend in the first ten - day period due to pessimistic market expectations and a certain rebound in the last ten - day period affected by some news and capital games, but still in a weak pattern [3] 3. Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.1 Domestic Production - In June, domestic lithium carbonate production remained at a relatively high level. Some mica - based lithium extraction enterprises had slightly fluctuating production due to raw material supply and cost issues, while salt - lake and spodumene - based lithium extraction enterprises maintained stable production. In Jiangxi, some mica - based lithium extraction enterprises reduced production by about 5 - 8% month - on - month due to high lithium mica concentrate prices. In Qinghai salt - lake areas, production increased by about 3 - 5% month - on - month due to the summer production peak. According to SMM data, the total domestic lithium carbonate production in June was about 35,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 2% [4] 3.2 Import Situation - In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate declined. Customs data showed that the total import volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3%, and the average import price was about 12,309 US dollars/ton. Among them, about 15,700 tons were imported from Chile and about 3400 tons from Argentina. The decrease in imports alleviated the oversupply situation to some extent, but the overall supply was still sufficient [4] 3.3 Power Battery Field - In June, the production and sales data of the new energy vehicle market were good, and the growth rate remained at a certain level [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price - downward cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price decline - ore price loosening - lithium salt price decline again". When the futures rebound, there is a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price hike", but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals and the price will fall again [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: the futures price will rise in a volatile manner at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected demand in the off - season; the futures price will decline in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical reforms and increased production [3]. - Strategy recommendations: LC09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage; short LC2511 contracts at high prices; sell call options at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 23.3% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of impairment, 70% of the inventory can be hedged by short - selling LC2509 lithium carbonate futures, 30% by selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans, they can buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs [2]. Market Analysis - **Lithium Market Core Contradiction**: The lithium market is facing inventory pressure, slow de - stocking, and a medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance. There are two short - term price - movement logics [3]. - **Lithium Market利多因素**: Improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disruptions, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warehouse receipts will boost the futures market price [6]. - **Lithium Market利空因素**: High future lithium ore production expectations, inventory pressure on ore prices, continuous inventory accumulation of lithium ore and lithium salt, and postponed capacity clearance due to technological upgrades [5][7]. Market Data - **Futures Market Data**: - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 64,080 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day; the trading volume is 420,967 lots, down 119,468 lots or 22.11%; the open interest is 334,057 lots, up 8,483 lots or 2.61% [9]. - The closing price of the LC2511 contract is 63,720 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan or 0.25%; the trading volume is 36,817 lots, down 10,160 lots or 21.63%; the open interest is 98,399 lots, up 4,871 lots or 5.21% [9]. - **Lithium Ore Market Data**: The prices of various types of lithium ore, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, have increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,315 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 3.14% [18]. - **Lithium Salt Market Data**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate have increased, while the prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium hydroxide have decreased slightly. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan or 0.75% [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spread Data**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remains unchanged; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate has decreased; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea and the domestic market has increased [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 22,880, a decrease of 300 from the previous day [36]. Downstream Market Data - The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,660 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 0.36% [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: There are no disturbances on the resource side. Although the port ore inventory has decreased, it remains at a high level overall. The rising futures prices have encouraged spot suppliers to actively sell, but downstream buyers are reluctant to purchase. Material manufacturers make purchases based on rigid demand, and the spot resources are abundant. The market trading is relatively stable. The energy storage market continues to be hot, and the power terminal consumption is acceptable, but some car companies plan to reduce production. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rising futures prices, lithium ore prices have strengthened. - Futures market: On Monday, the main contract hit a new low since listing. Then, the market sentiment reversed. Lithium prices rose significantly in the middle of the week and opened higher on Friday, closing above the 30 - day moving average. Overall, there was a trend of rising prices with decreasing positions during the week. The trading volume was significantly released at the beginning of the week, but on the day when the price hit a new high at the end of the week, the trading volume was lower than the previous high. - Outlook: The futures market is divorced from the physical market, and the price increase lacks substantial drivers. Lithium prices may回调. Fundamentally, the rising lithium prices provide a comfortable hedging space for upstream producers. At the same time, many smelters have made breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology. While the expected upstream production is increasing, the cost center may decline. The production increase of material manufacturers in July is limited. The energy storage market may continue to be hot driven by policies. The power terminal sales are acceptable, but the expected reduction in car company production may drag down the production plans of upstream material manufacturers and battery cell manufacturers, and the consumer side may not see significant improvement. Driven by the strong supply expectation, the fundamentals may gradually weaken marginally. However, it should be noted that the short - sellers' profit - taking demand is strong recently, and the positions have decreased during the week, which may cause the lithium price movement to deviate from the fundamental logic. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/23 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore: 1.3% - 2.2% | 108 | 106 | 2.00 | 1.89% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate: 5.5% - 6% | 639 | 634 | 5.00 | 0.79% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate: 5.5% - 6% | 639 | 634 | 5 | 0.79% | CNY/ton | | Spot exchange rate: USD to CNY | 7.169 | 7.186 | - 0.02 | - 0.23% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 6.33 | 5.91 | 0.42 | 7.07% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 0.00 | 5.85 | - 5.85 | - 100.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 6.32 | 5.97 | 0.35 | 5.89% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) | 5.90 | 5.98 | - 0.08 | - 1.34% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles) | 6.35 | 6.45 | - 0.10 | - 1.55% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 110305 | 103436 | 6869 | 6.64% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.05 | 3.05 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 20.90 | 20.40 | 0.50 | 2.45% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 811 | 14.55 | 14.55 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 622 | 12.75 | 12.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | [6] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Last week's market analysis** - **Regulation and delivery**: As of June 27, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 21,998 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 60,340 CNY/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2509 was 341,400 lots. - **Supply side**: According to Baichuan data, as of June 27, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17,598 tons, an increase of 310 tons from the previous period. With the significant increase in lithium prices during the week, lithium salt factories have another hedging opportunity, and the operating rate may remain high. In addition, some mica enterprises in Jiangxi announced major breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology, and the cost center has moved down, which may further increase the supply of lithium extraction from hard - rock ores. The production of salt lake resources is on the rise, and policy regulation has limited impact on salt lake production. - **Imports**: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Currently, Chile and Argentina are still the main sources of China's lithium carbonate imports, accounting for about 63% and 31% respectively. In May, the scale of lithium carbonate shipped from Chile to China was about 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38%. Overall, the shipment volume from Chile in May was significantly weaker. - **Lithium ore imports**: In May, about 605,000 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. Among them, the import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, with 371,000 tons and 52,000 tons imported respectively. In contrast, the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% to about 15,000 tons. - **Demand side** - **Downstream cathode materials**: As of June 27, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 65,667 tons, with an operating rate of 59.59%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 36,496 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,300 tons, with an operating rate of 48.65%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous period. The prices of cathode materials have increased to varying degrees due to the rising lithium carbonate prices. - **New energy vehicles**: From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 691,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% compared with the same period in June last year and an 11% increase from the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market in the country was 54.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 5.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. However, with the base gradually rising after July, the year - on - year growth rate may decline. Affected by the payment deadline policy, car companies may enter the active inventory reduction stage, which will have a negative impact on upstream battery cell manufacturers and material manufacturers. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 110,305 tons, an increase of about 6,869 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 35,275 tons, an increase of about 408 tons; the market inventory was 75,030 tons, an increase of about 6,464 tons; the exchange inventory was 21,998 tons, a decrease of 5,795 tons from the previous week. [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] - **This week's outlook** The futures market is divorced from the physical market, and lithium prices are expected to decline. The price increase lacks substantial drivers, and lithium prices may回调. The fundamentals may gradually weaken marginally, but the short - sellers' profit - taking may cause the lithium price movement to deviate from the fundamental logic. [15] 3.3 Industry News - Tianqi Lithium has completed the development and verification of relevant processes and equipment for lithium sulfide industrialization, which is beneficial for promoting the development of the all - solid - state battery industry chain. - Wukuang Xinneng has achieved cumulative shipments of hundreds of kilograms of all - solid - state battery cathode materials. - Yinglian Co., Ltd. is researching and developing lithium metal/composite current collector anode integrated materials for solid - state batteries, and the industrialization progress of the composite current collector sector is advancing. [16] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and the production of related batteries, including lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, import lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, etc. [18][20][23][27][29][30]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 碳酸锂市场周报 盘面反弹需求仍弱，碳酸锂或仍有压力 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 研究员:王福辉 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力合约周线强势反弹。截止收盘，周线涨跌幅+7.47%，振幅8.39%。主力合约报价63300元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，国家发改委举行新闻发布会介绍，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金。随着存量政 策加快落地见效，新的储备政策陆续出台实施，有信心、有能力把外部冲击的不确定性和不利影响降到最低，推动经 济持续健康发展。碳酸锂基本面原料端，锂矿持货商延续挺价情绪，加之现货价格近期上涨，拉动锂矿价格小幅上行。 供给端，市场整体碳酸锂供给量仍相对偏多，库存持续累积已突破前期高点，此外由于近期期价上涨，带动现货价格 上行以及部分持货方参与套保锁定利润，故冶炼厂生产情绪仍较好。进口方面，智利发运量级有所下降，预计到港后 国内 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Ganfeng Lithium is facing challenges in 2024 due to declining lithium prices, but the company is maintaining stable operations and controlling capital expenditures while achieving record production levels [1] - Ganfeng Lithium has established a full-chain layout in the solid-state battery sector and has applied for multiple patents [1] - The company plans to slow down its capital expenditure pace while continuing to promote key project investments and explore innovative financing methods such as equity investments [1] Group 2 - Ganfeng Lithium is optimizing its debt structure, accelerating asset revitalization, enhancing operating cash flow, and implementing prudent financial planning to address funding pressures [1] - Lithium prices are showing signs of bottoming out, and if current prices persist, there may be a supply-side clearing with reduced new capacity [1] - With the release of multiple projects' capacities, it is expected that the self-sufficiency rate will exceed 50% by 2025 [1] Group 3 - In the solid-state battery business, Ganfeng Lithium has achieved a breakthrough with a 400Wh/kg battery cycle life exceeding 800 times, and small-scale production of 500Wh/kg products has commenced [1]