龙源电力 20251017 摘要 龙源电力作为国家能源集团旗下专注风电业务的平台，风电装机占比 73%，光伏装机占比 27%，受益于资源先发优势和 136 号文全面市场 化后的竞价优势，有望率先受益于行业估值修复。 公司 ROE 自 2011 年以来长期维持在 8%-9%之间，但受电价压力和火 电竞争影响，度电收入和度电影响利润均有所下降，今年上半年风电竞 争营业利润降至 0.19 元/度。 龙源电力 PB 估值曾因双碳政策提升，后因绿电脱补和政策收紧而大幅 下降，目前虽有所修复至 0.85 倍，但仍处于历史底部区间，未来有修 复空间。 公司未来增量资产主要来自集团注入的 4GW 绿电项目、老旧设备改造 以及丰富的海风和大基地项目储备，其中江苏、福建等地海风储备约 6GW，宁夏、甘肃等地大基地项目 15GW 以上。 根据 136 号文，风电出力曲线与负荷曲线匹配度更高，市场化交易中风 电价格高于光伏价格，龙源作为主要风电竞争者，其降幅相对较小，内 部协同效应增强机组报价和销纳优势。 拖累收益率，使得 PB 一路下行至 24 年的历史低点 0.52 倍。但随着政策逐步 重视装机增速与合理收益平衡，以及 136 ...

中国核电 20251019 摘要 现有在运的 26 台核电机组增值税返还政策不变，仍按 2008 年文件执 行，即前五年 75%、第二个五年 70%、第三个五年 55%。此政策确保 了现有运营机组的收益稳定性。 2025 年 10 月 31 日前已核准但未投运的 19 台在建机组，增值税返还 政策调整为十年内返还 50%。此调整影响其投产后前十年的现金流。 2025 年 10 月 31 日后核准的新机组将不再享受增值税返还，长期来看， 这可能降低未来核电项目的收益率，但短期内对中国核电利润影响有限。 中国核电的增值税返还按深交所规定及时足额到账，每季度结算并按季 度到账，未及时到账将按收付实现制处理，保证了财务处理的规范性。 漳州 2 号预计无法赶上增值税返还政策调整窗口期，预计在今年年底左 右投入商运。新政对华龙 1 号收益率有一定影响，但不会显著降低其经 济性。 陆上风电取消增值税返还预计每年对公司利润总额影响约 7,500 万元， 对归母净利润影响约 3,000 至 4,000 万元，对公司盈利能力产生一定负 面影响。 公司采取集约化、标准化、数字化等措施降本增效，并通过利率置换等 方式节省财务费用，以 ...

英伟达发布白皮书，固态变压器 SST 或成为 AIDC 终极供 电方案 20251019 场空间非常庞大。此外，固态变压器不仅适用于数据中心，还可应用于新能源 汽车充电、表后储能和工商储能等场景。这些应用场景对高价产品接受度较高， 有助于推动固态变压器的量产和成本下降。 摘要 固态变压器（SST）在 AIDC 领域具有巨大市场潜力，预计 2026 年全 球 AIDC 装机容量接近 40GW，市场空间广阔，每瓦价格约为人民币 5- 7 元。同时，SST 还可应用于新能源汽车充电、表后储能和工商储能等 场景。 英伟达白皮书提出的中压整流器方案（巴马电源）已在国内取得一定成 熟度，海外 CSP 对 AIDC 电源价格敏感性较低，更注重产品性能，为国 内企业提供了市场切入点。 国内企业如中西电、四方股份、中恒电气等在固态变压器和巴马电源领 域已有较早布局，具备较好的竞争优势，有望在未来获得更多市场份额。 金盘科技、中恒电气等公司具有较高胜率。 AI 产业发展将极大影响 AIDC 建设投入，随着 AI 需求增长及下游企业竞 争加剧，将进一步催化 AIDC 建设，即使保守估计，到 2026 年全球装 机容量接近 40GW ...

锂电材料价格持续上涨，国内储能景气度延续 20251019 摘要 思源电器三季报收入同比增长超 30%，利润增长 46%，超出市场预期， 主要受益于海外收入占比提升至 33%以上。预计 2025 年利润达 28-30 亿元，2026 年有望达 37 亿元以上，订单增速预计维持 30%以上，保 障未来业绩增长。 锂电材料价格近期上涨，包括六氟、磷酸铁锂和负极材料，主要受储能 需求超预期及年底抢装情绪刺激。尚太科技四季度有望实现量利双击， 单位盈利环比三季度将有所改善，仍是重点推荐标的。 出口管制政策虽有限制，但并未完全禁止出口，配额制逻辑下海外售价 将直线上升，对出海型企业构成利好。保守估计海外单位盈利至少每吨 1 万元，若出货量达 5 万吨，将显著提升企业估值。 负极材料市场关注度较低，但头部企业仍在盈利，具备困境反转潜力。 长期格局和单位盈利能力值得看好，交易拥挤度较低，具备很大空间。 若涨价落地，将是重大利好，公司降本能力突出，盈利能力有望提高。 消费电池市场近期回调，但基本面依然强劲。三季度开始回暖，Meta 眼镜发售预计将带动整个产业链需求爆发，对电池诉求更强。紫建电子 等公司迎来建仓或加仓机会，持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Views - The demand for lithium batteries is strong, with price increase demands evident, and the potential for AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) is considerable [1] - The report highlights significant growth in energy storage installations, with a year-on-year increase of 205% in new installations in September 2025 [3] - The electric vehicle market is also showing robust growth, with domestic sales of electric vehicles reaching 1.604 million units in September, a year-on-year increase of 25% [3] Industry Trends - The electric equipment sector has seen a decline of 5.3%, underperforming compared to the broader market [3] - The report notes that the human-shaped robot sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with significant investments and developments in the industry [3][7] - The energy storage market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30-50% from 2025 to 2028, driven by increasing demand and supply constraints [3] Company Performance - Si Yuan Electric reported a revenue of approximately 13.827 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32.86% [3] - Container Technology's revenue for the same period was approximately 8.986 billion yuan, down 20.64% year-on-year [3] - Sunshine Power announced a cash dividend of 9.50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.95 billion yuan [3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strong outlook for energy storage, with expectations of significant growth in both domestic and international markets [3] - It emphasizes the potential for lithium battery manufacturers, particularly in light of increasing demand and price stability [3] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, highlighting their strong market positions and growth potential [3][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the wind power industry [15]. Core Insights - The offshore wind installation is expected to experience explosive growth by 2026, coupled with tight local supply, creating opportunities for domestic wind power companies to expand internationally. Domestic companies have already begun to realize overseas performance, which is anticipated to continue to release growth potential [7][25]. - Recent financial disclosures from overseas companies indicate a strong investment willingness from power operators, with capital expenditures continuing to expand and offshore wind projects at historical highs in terms of construction and Final Investment Decision (FID) scale [4][11]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report emphasizes the anticipated explosive growth in offshore wind installations and the tight supply situation, which provides a broad space for domestic companies to venture abroad. It also highlights the recent performance of overseas wind power companies [7][25]. Wind Turbines: Mixed Performance with Abundant Orders - In Q2 2025, major turbine manufacturers showed varied performance. Vestas reported a revenue increase of 14% year-on-year, while Nordex and Siemens Energy saw declines in revenue but improvements in profitability. The order backlog for these companies is robust, with Vestas and Nordex having orders equivalent to 2.3 and 1.4 times their 2024 revenue, respectively [8][26][37]. Submarine Cables: Revenue and Profit Growth with Historical High Orders - Submarine cable companies reported revenue growth in Q2 2025, with Prysmian, Nexans, and NKT achieving year-on-year increases of 15.8%, 5.2%, and 19.5%, respectively. Their order backlogs are at historical highs, with Prysmian's backlog being 6.4 times its 2024 revenue [9][44][55]. Piles: Temporary Profit Pressure with Record Order Scale - Sif, a major player in the pile segment, reported a 2% increase in revenue for Q2 2025, despite a decline in production volume. The company’s order backlog reached approximately 625,000 tons, indicating strong future delivery potential [10][63][75]. Operators: Expanding Capital Expenditures with High Construction and FID Scale - Key operators Ørsted, RWE, and Vattenfall reported significant revenue growth in their offshore wind segments, with Ørsted's capital expenditures at historical highs. Their projects under construction and FID are also at record levels, indicating a strong commitment to offshore wind development [11][78][97]. Contractors: Accelerating Business Growth with Record High Orders - Cadeler, a contractor in the offshore wind sector, reported a remarkable 269% increase in revenue for Q2 2025, driven by growth in vessel leasing and installation services. The company’s order backlog reached approximately €2.492 billion, marking a historical high [12][106][110].

在新一轮财税改革中，一项重点任务是规范税收优惠政策，这项工作正加快推进。 近日，财政部 海关总署 税务总局公开《关于调整风力发电等增值税政策的公告》（下称《公告》）， 取消或调整了多个行业的相关增值税优惠政策。 根据《公告》附件的"废止文件和条款目录"，此次8项政策文件中相关条款被废止，涉及风电、核电、 融资租赁、飞机维修、铂金及其制品、钻石、新型墙体材料、煤层气抽采等行业相关企业。 陆上风电取消增值税即征即退 根据《公告》，今年11月1日起废止2015年出台的《财政部 国家税务总局关于风力发电增值税政策的通 知》。而当时为了鼓励利用风力发电，自2015年7月1日起，对纳税人销售自产的利用风力生产的电力产 品，实行增值税即征即退50%的政策。 在取消上述优惠政策的同时，《公告》明确自2025年11月1日起至2027年12月31日，对纳税人销售自产 的利用海上风力生产的电力产品，实行增值税即征即退50%的政策。 上海财经大学公共政策与治理研究院执行院长田志伟告诉第一财经，这意味着此次国家废止了陆上风电 的增值税即征即退50%优惠政策，但短期保留了针对海上风电的这一优惠政策。 田志伟表示，这可能是陆上风电技术非常 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in various sectors, including electric vehicles, solar energy, wind energy, energy storage, power equipment, industrial control, robotics, and hydrogen energy [2][3][4][5][9][18][28][36][50][59] Electric Vehicle and Lithium Battery Sector - Six departments issued a three-year plan to double the number of charging stations, aiming to add over 28 million new charging facilities by 2027, with a retail penetration rate of 57.8% for new energy vehicles in September [9][10] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached a historical high of 1.296 million units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.5% [10] Solar Energy Sector - Anticipation of two major favorable policies aimed at curbing price competition in the solar industry, with a focus on high-quality development [18][19] - The report emphasizes the need for effective policies to eliminate outdated production capacity and rejuvenate the solar industry [19] Wind Energy Sector - Multiple key offshore wind projects are undergoing intensive bidding, with a notable procurement of 1.52GW wind turbines by State Power Investment Corporation at competitive prices [28][30] - The report indicates that these projects will lay a solid foundation for installed capacity in 2026 and 2027 [28] Energy Storage Sector - Strong demand for energy storage batteries is expected to approach 600GWh by 2025, with a significant increase in shipments in Q3 2025 [36][37] - The first self-regulatory practice guidelines for energy storage systems have been released, focusing on safety and quality standards [38] Power Equipment Sector - The third batch of bidding for State Grid metering products has commenced, with a total of 16.96 million electric meters up for bid [52] - The Qinggui DC project has entered the feasibility study stage, which will enable the transmission of 36 billion kWh of electricity annually to Guangxi [56] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The establishment of a new intelligent transmission system headquarters in Hefei, with a planned investment of 1 billion yuan, aims to enhance the competitiveness of the robotics industry [59][60] - The listing of Yunji Technology on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks a significant milestone, with a first-day increase of 49% [61][62] Hydrogen Energy Sector - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced investment measures to support five key areas, while General Motors has halted the development of the next-generation hydrogen fuel cell [5]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The power equipment industry is transitioning from "ultra-low price competition" to "structural correction," with significant price increases expected due to changes in export tax policies and supply-side reforms [16][17] - The report highlights three key areas of focus: supply-side reform leading to price increases, long-term growth opportunities from new technologies, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite solar cells [17] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a critical shift, with expected global component price increases of approximately 9% starting Q4 2025 due to the cancellation of VAT rebates on solar cell exports [16][17] - Domestic component prices have entered an upward trend since July 2025, with N-type component average prices rising by about 3.6% from July to September 2025 [16][17] 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - A new VAT policy for offshore wind power will be implemented from November 2025, allowing a 50% VAT rebate on self-produced electricity, which is expected to accelerate offshore wind development [18][19] - The first project under Jiangsu's 14th Five-Year Plan for offshore wind has been approved, indicating a boost in offshore wind capacity [18][19] 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - Sinopec's first green hydrogen ammonia synthesis project has been initiated, with a planned hydrogen production capacity of 20,000 tons/year and ammonia production of at least 100,000 tons/year [23] - Energy storage project bidding prices for October 2025 range from 0.4118 to 0.6 CNY/Wh, indicating a competitive market [24][30] 2. New Energy Vehicles - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan to double the charging infrastructure by 2027, aiming to build 28 million charging facilities to support over 80 million new energy vehicles [35][36] - The plan includes enhancing urban rapid charging networks and expanding charging facilities in rural areas [35][36]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 英伟达发布 800VDC 供电架构白皮书，关注光伏边际变 化 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.人形机器人 智元机器人联合均普智能全球线下首发精灵 G2 随着国内外企业布局加速&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产落 地时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国产替代 需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有望深度受 益。重点看好国产机器人/机器狗有望加速放量带动的产业链需 求。 2.新能源汽车 《电动汽车充电设施服务能力"三年倍增"行动方案（2025- 2027 年）》发布 我们认为： 1）国内充电设施将保持较好增长。根据中国充电联盟数据，截至 2024 年底，联盟内充电基础设施（公共+私人）累计数量为 1281.8 万台，当年新增数量为 422.2 万台。以"行动方案"提出的"到 2027 年底，在全国范围内建成 2800 万个充电设施"计算，年均新 增充电基础设施数量超过 500 万台。 2）公共直流充电 ...