Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a strong opening on May 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3300 points, up by 1.13% to 3316.11 points [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.84% to 10082.34 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.97% to 1986.41 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors that saw significant gains included controllable nuclear fusion, rare earth permanent magnets, Hongmeng, and CPO, while a few sectors like banking experienced declines [1] International Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw declines on May 6, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.95% to 40829.00 points, the S&P 500 down by 0.77% to 5606.91 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 0.87% to 17689.66 points [2][4] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose slightly by 0.01%, while the CAC40 in France and the DAX in Germany fell by 0.40% and 0.41%, respectively [2] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a notable increase, with light crude oil futures for June rising by $1.96 to $59.09 per barrel, a 3.43% increase, and Brent crude for July up by $1.92 to $62.15 per barrel, a 3.19% increase [3][4] Aviation Industry Insights - During the "May Day" holiday, China's civil aviation transported over 11.15 million passengers, averaging 2.23 million per day, marking an 11.8% increase compared to 2024 [8] - The demand for travel was strong, particularly between major urban clusters, with some regional airports experiencing passenger throughput growth exceeding 100% [8] Automotive Industry Trends - In April, BYD led the domestic new energy vehicle sales with 380,100 units, followed by Geely with 125,600 units, reflecting a 144% year-on-year increase [9] - The market is expected to see a surge in demand as new models are launched, supported by government incentives for vehicle trade-ins [9] Semiconductor and Technology Sector - The focus remains on intelligent driving chips within the new energy vehicle and smart driving sectors, with expectations for growth driven by increased industry penetration and improved profitability [10]

2025 年 5 月 6 日 电力设备与新能源行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业月报 证券研究报告 新能源与电力设备组 分析师：姚遥（执业 S1130512080001） yaoy＠gjzq.com.cn 锂电 4 月洞察：电车储能销量持续走高，钴价止涨正极盈利企稳 本月行业重要变化： 1）锂电：4 月 30 日，碳酸锂报价 7.0 万元/吨，较上月下降 4.8%；氢氧化锂报价 7.0 万元/吨，较上月下降 0.4%。 2）整车：2025 年 3 月国内新能源乘用车批发销量达 113 万辆，同比+35.5%，环比+35.9%；1～3 月累计批发 285 万辆， 同比+43%。 行情回顾： 2025 年 4 月以来，锂电关联板块中除新能源车环节外，均有不同幅度的下跌，磷酸铁锂正极、锂电铜箔和柴发产业链 等环节跌幅较大，相对沪深 300 的涨跌幅超额分别为-8%、-7%和-5%。多数环节月度成交额较上月大幅下跌，只有新 能源车的月度成交额环比提升，市场关注度不减。锂电关联版块多数环节 3 年历史估值分位处于低值，锂电电解液、 负极和智能驾驶的 3 年历史估值分位仅个位数区间，未来存在估值修复的空间。 本月研究专题： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, highlighting a recovery in profitability and growth potential in these industries [2][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in promoting the use of advanced photovoltaic components, which is seen as a viable solution to address the issue of excess production capacity in the solar industry [7][8]. - The wind energy sector is experiencing a significant uptick in construction activity, with the first offshore wind project in Shandong officially commencing, indicating a positive trend in the industry [2][8]. - The report notes that the performance of the photovoltaic and storage sectors is stabilizing, with signs of a turning point in profitability expected in the near future [2][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The National Energy Administration has issued a notice to encourage the use of advanced photovoltaic components in large-scale projects, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry [7][8]. - The photovoltaic sector is projected to maintain high demand in 2024, with an expected 277 GW of new installations, representing a 28% year-on-year increase [7][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in new installations, with 60 GW added, marking a 31% year-on-year growth [7][8]. Wind Energy - The Shandong Peninsula North L offshore wind project has officially started construction, contributing to the acceleration of offshore wind development in China [2][8]. - The wind energy sector reported a net profit of 12.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first year-on-year profit increase in three years [2][8]. - The report highlights three main investment themes in the wind energy sector: improvement in profitability of turbine manufacturers, rising demand for offshore wind, and the release of profit elasticity in component prices [2][8]. Power Grid - The State Grid's second batch of bidding results for transmission and transformation equipment reached 17.64 billion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase, indicating accelerated main grid construction [3][9]. - The report mentions the release of new bidding projects for distribution transformers and integrated products, with an estimated total bidding amount exceeding 6.5 billion yuan [3][9]. - The introduction of the basic rules for the auxiliary service market marks a significant step towards the market-oriented reform of power services in China [9][10]. New Energy Vehicles - The launch of the Lynk & Co 900, a six-seat plug-in hybrid SUV, has exceeded market expectations with a competitive pricing strategy [14][16]. - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of new energy vehicles, with a retail penetration rate of 52.3% in April 2025 [14][16]. Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cells - The report indicates that hydrogen energy policies are expected to continue, with a focus on quality development and the promotion of the entire hydrogen industry chain [12][15]. - The hydrogen production capacity is projected to reach 120,000 tons per year by 2025, with significant growth in fuel cell vehicle production [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the electric new energy sector, including 宁德时代 (CATL), 科达利 (Kodali), and 中科电气 (Zhongke Electric) among others [3][24]. Core Insights - The overall fund holding ratio in the electric new energy sector has decreased, with a fund holding ratio of 9.20% as of Q1 2025, down by 1.35 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The electric new energy sector's market capitalization accounted for 5.29% of the total market capitalization, reflecting a slight increase of 0.18 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The report highlights a shift in fund holdings towards the electric vehicle and power equipment sectors, while the renewable energy generation sector has seen a deeper adjustment [2][14]. Summary by Sections Overall Sector Analysis - As of Q1 2025, the fund holding ratio for the electric new energy sector is 11.87%, down by 0.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The market capitalization of electric new energy stocks in the A-share market is 7.78%, up by 0.61 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. Subsector Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the electric vehicle sector is 8.65%, up by 0.11 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the renewable energy generation sector's holding ratio is 1.82%, down by 0.67 percentage points [2][14]. - The power equipment and industrial control sector has a fund holding ratio of 1.50%, up by 0.06 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][14]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the electric vehicle sector include 宁德时代 (CATL), 科达利 (Kodali), and 中科电气 (Zhongke Electric) [2][24]. - For the power equipment and industrial control sector, recommended stocks include 许继电气 (XJ Electric), 平高电气 (Pinggao Electric), and 思源电气 (Siyuan Electric) [2][24]. - In the renewable energy sector, recommended stocks include 东方电缆 (Oriental Cable), 海力风电 (Haili Wind Power), and 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power) [2][24]. Key Company Forecasts - 宁德时代 (CATL) is projected to have an EPS of 11.58 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 20, and is rated as a "Buy" [3][24]. - 科达利 (Kodali) is expected to have an EPS of 5.44 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 24, and is also rated as a "Buy" [3][24]. - 中科电气 (Zhongke Electric) is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.44 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 34, and is rated as a "Buy" [3][24].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance with significant increases in major indices, driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, while the overall market sentiment remains optimistic due to supportive policies and capital inflows [2][5][8]. Market Performance - The A-share market opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3300 points, reaching a new high in nearly a month, while the Shenzhen Component Index surpassed 10000 points. The total market turnover increased to 1.36 trillion yuan, with over 5000 stocks rising [2][4]. - Key indices and their performance include: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3316.11, up 1.13%, turnover of 551.83 billion yuan - Shenzhen Component Index: 10082.34, up 1.84%, turnover of 784.37 billion yuan - ChiNext Index: 1986.41, up 1.97%, turnover of 362.53 billion yuan - CSI 300: 3808.54, up 1.01%, turnover of 267.94 billion yuan [4]. Sector Performance - Sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, rare earth permanent magnets, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence saw significant gains, while only a few sectors like leisure food, banking, and medical beauty experienced slight declines [3][5]. - Notable capital inflows were observed in electronics and computers, with over 10 billion yuan net inflow, while banks and oil sectors saw net outflows [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market will continue to focus on domestic demand policies and tariff developments, with a potential for a volatile market environment. The main investment themes are expected to revolve around domestic demand and self-sufficiency [5]. - The new energy vehicle sector is experiencing a surge, with companies like BYD reporting a 21.33% year-on-year increase in April sales, while other manufacturers like Li Auto and Xpeng also reported significant growth [8]. - The artificial intelligence sector is witnessing a resurgence, with major stocks in the sector experiencing substantial gains, indicating a new wave of innovation driven by advancements in AI technology [10].

毫无悬念的是，4月，比亚迪以38.01万辆的成绩继续稳坐国内新能源车销量榜第一。其中，王朝网和海洋网累计销量为34.71万辆，腾势汽 车售出新车1.54万辆，方程豹月销超过1万辆，同比增长375.8%。 紧随其后的吉利汽车4月新能源（包含吉利、领克、极氪）销量为12.56万辆，同比增长144%。从销量占比来看，新能源销量已占吉利汽车 4月总销量的54%。吉利银河成为吉利新能源车的销量主力，4月销量逼近10万辆，同比增长281%。 在4月新能源销量的比拼上，奇瑞集团与长安汽车"不相上下"。其中长安汽车新能源车零售7.13万辆，同比增长46.7%。长安旗下三大新能 源品牌中深蓝汽车销量2.01万辆，同比增长58%；阿维塔销量1.17万辆，同比增长122.6%；启源销量也超过1万辆。 奇瑞集团销售新能源汽车6.12万辆，同比增长85.5%。其中旗下新能源车品牌iCAR销售汽车6947辆，智界品牌销售汽车4461辆。 相较之下，长城汽车4月的新能源车销量虽同比增长了28.42%，但总量仅为2.88万辆，不及多个造车新势力企业。零跑汽车继3月之后继续 摘得4月造车新势力销冠，其4月交付量为4.1万辆，同比增长173%。 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing sentiment in the consumer goods and equipment manufacturing sectors has significantly declined, indicating a need for increased policy support [1][8][11] - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, falling below the neutral line of 50%, with consumer goods and equipment manufacturing sectors both entering a downturn [8][11] - The automotive sector showed a decline in production despite strong sales, with the operating rate of semi-steel tires dropping by 3.81 percentage points compared to March [11][14] Group 2 - The coal supply and demand situation remains weak, with low prices leading to a reduction in domestic supply and continued price declines [17][19] - The real estate sector experienced a marginal decline in transaction volumes, particularly in second and third-tier cities, while first-tier cities showed resilience [30][31] - The financial sector saw a decrease in trading activity, with the A-share market declining by 3.2% in April, while social financing data exceeded expectations [40][41] Group 3 - The consumer sector displayed structural strengths, with service consumption performing well, but uncertainties in external demand are increasing [2][3] - The TMT sector faces challenges due to rising trade barriers, impacting the development of humanoid robots and artificial intelligence industries [2][3] - The new energy sector is experiencing stable demand for lithium batteries, while the photovoltaic sector is seeing a decline in demand [2][3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology HKETF (513890) has seen a 2.59% increase, with a trading volume of 59.68 million yuan and a turnover rate of 14.33%, indicating active market participation [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTECH) has decreased by 0.22%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks; Meituan-W (03690) led the gains with a 3.47% rise, while NIO-SW (09866) experienced the largest drop at 5.82% [1] - As of April 30, the latest scale of the Hang Seng Technology HKETF reached 407 million yuan, marking a new high since its inception, with a total inflow of 18.42 million yuan over the last 18 trading days [1] Group 2 - CICC notes that domestic internet companies' valuations have recovered from a pessimistic outlook in 2024, but recent external tariff changes have led to a valuation pullback [2] - The domestic internet sector is currently viewed as being in a reasonable low valuation range, with a safety margin still present [2] - AI potential is seen as an option value for domestic internet companies, with investments in AI being relatively rational compared to US tech leaders, thus maintaining controllable profit impacts [2] Group 3 - Morgan Asset Management has integrated its "Global Vision Investment Technology" product line to help investors capture investment opportunities in quality tech companies amid the AI-driven tech wave [3] - The firm offers various actively managed funds focusing on emerging industry trends, AI-related opportunities, and sectors like new energy vehicles and humanoid robotics [3] - Passive investment options include the Morgan Hang Seng Technology ETF (513890) and other ETFs targeting Chinese innovative pharmaceuticals and global tech leaders [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview Wind Power Industry - The wind power industry experienced a recovery in Q1 2025, with revenue increasing by 15% year-on-year and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 3%, marking the first increase in three years [1][2] - Key components such as castings, main shafts, and blades benefited from improved operating rates and reduced costs, leading to significant profit recovery [2] - The entire supply chain saw accelerated turnover of inventory and accounts receivable, indicating a positive trend for 2025 [1][2] - Major companies like Goldwind Technology are expected to benefit from inflation in onshore wind power and changes in gross profit margins [2][3] Photovoltaic Industry - The main photovoltaic chain remains in a bottoming phase, but the energy storage inverter segment showed strong performance [1][4] - In Q1, gross margins for silicon wafers, battery cells, and auxiliary materials improved significantly, with battery cells achieving positive gross margins for the first time [4] - Companies are focusing on cash management and strict accounts receivable recovery, while capital expenditures are being significantly reduced [4] New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The new energy vehicle sector benefited from trade-in policies and accelerated overseas expansion, with stable sales growth in Q1 [1][5] - The lithium battery sector entered a recovery phase in Q2 2024 and is now transitioning into a prosperous period, with inventory cycles shifting from passive destocking to active restocking [6] - Recommended companies include BYD, Geely, and XPeng, which have strong product innovation capabilities [6] Lithium Battery Supply Chain - Key areas of focus within the lithium battery supply chain include high-density materials like lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate, as well as components like battery cell structures and separators [7] - Companies that are stable in their main business while actively exploring growth in robotics and semiconductors are also of interest [7] Power Grid Sector - The power grid sector is expected to grow steadily, with revenue growth rates of approximately 12%-13% in 2024 and stable net profit growth [8][9] - Capital expenditures in overseas and main network equipment segments are experiencing rapid growth, with a 17% year-on-year increase in power equipment exports in Q1 2025 [9] - Recommended investment targets include companies benefiting from high overseas demand and sustained domestic grid investment growth [10] Key Insights and Recommendations - The wind power sector is anticipated to achieve both volume and profit growth in 2025, supported by significant orders and improved profitability [3] - In the photovoltaic sector, focus on stable, high-quality companies and core auxiliary materials with favorable supply-demand dynamics is advised [4] - For the new energy vehicle and lithium battery sectors, companies with low-cost production routes and strong product development capabilities are recommended [6] - The power grid sector presents opportunities in companies with high overseas demand and those benefiting from domestic investment growth [10] Additional Observations - The robotics sector showed varied performance in Q1 2025, influenced by downstream demand [11] - The mechanical industry reported a 10% revenue growth and a 29% profit increase in Q1 2025, with engineering machinery and shipbuilding sectors performing particularly well [14][15] - The general machinery sector is expected to maintain growth, although profit margins may be affected by macroeconomic conditions [18]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for companies with strong cost reduction capabilities, particularly BYD, Geely, Xpeng, and Leap Motor, suggesting they may exceed performance expectations in 2025 due to the "old-for-new" policy [4]. Core Insights - The domestic market is experiencing high prosperity, with Q1 2025 sales maintaining a strong performance due to the "old-for-new" policy and low base effects from the previous year, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 11.4% in wholesale sales [4][7]. - Electric vehicle (EV) sales are showing stable growth, with Q1 2025 EV wholesale sales reaching 2.847 million units, a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [4][35]. - The global automotive market remains stable, with Q1 2025 global EV sales increasing by 31.6% year-on-year, indicating a steady demand [4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Passenger Car Overview - The Q1 2025 market is characterized by high prosperity, supported by comprehensive national and local subsidies under the "old-for-new" policy, leading to a year-on-year increase in wholesale sales to 6.276 million units [4][7]. - Retail sales in Q1 2025 reached 5.119 million units, up 5.9% year-on-year, while exports totaled 1.118 million units, reflecting a slight increase of 1.1% [4][7]. 1.2 Price Segment Analysis - The low-end market is expanding while the high-end market is contracting, with significant year-on-year growth in the under 50,000 and 50,000-100,000 price segments [4][13]. - The price war and policy incentives are driving demand in the low-end market, while high-end market demand remains weak due to a trend of consumer downgrade [4][13]. 1.3 Domestic Replacement - The penetration rate of domestic brands remains stable, with a retail penetration rate of 62.84% in Q1 2025, although there is a slight decline in high-end market performance [4][18]. - Domestic brands have achieved over 50% market share in the lower price segments, but face challenges in the high-end market due to supply issues and competitive pressures [4][18]. 1.4 Market Competition Landscape - Domestic brands continue to grow, with BYD and Geely showing significant market share increases, while joint ventures, particularly Japanese brands, are facing the most significant challenges [4][24][27]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with joint venture brands offering substantial discounts to stabilize their market positions [4][22]. 2.1 Domestic Electric Vehicle Overview - The EV market is maintaining high prosperity, with Q1 2025 EV wholesale sales reaching 2.847 million units, a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [4][35]. - The penetration rates for EVs are stable, with Q1 2025 wholesale penetration at 45.4% and retail penetration at 47.3% [4][39]. 2.2 Electric Vehicle Structure - The demand for pure electric vehicles is recovering, with significant growth in the low-end market, while the high-end market is experiencing a decline [4][39]. - The report highlights that the low-end market remains a critical area for growth, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [4][43]. 2.3 Price Segment Analysis for Electric Vehicles - The low-end electric vehicle market is showing strong growth, with sales in the under 50,000 and 50,000-100,000 segments increasing by 150.4% and 68.8% year-on-year, respectively [4][41]. - The high-end market, particularly the 300,000 and above segment, is facing challenges, with sales declining [4][41].