Core Insights - The traditional consumption sector continues to face adjustments, while new consumption themes are also experiencing similar trends, although some thematic funds have achieved significant excess returns [1][2] - The performance disparity among consumption-themed funds is largely attributed to their stock holdings and the interpretation of "consumption" [2][3] Fund Performance - In 2023, the Hai Fu Tong Consumption Preferred Fund led the performance among active equity funds with a return of 82.25%, while several other funds also exceeded a 50% increase [2] - Conversely, funds like Xin Yuan Consumption Selection and Changxin Consumption Quantitative have underperformed, primarily due to their focus on traditional consumption stocks like liquor, which have not shown improvement after years of adjustment [3] Stock Holdings and Strategies - The Hai Fu Tong Consumption Preferred Fund has heavily invested in jewelry stocks, such as Zhuo Hong Ji, which has seen a year-to-date increase of over 150% [2] - The Yongying Emerging Consumption Intelligent Selection Fund has focused on new consumption stocks like Pop Mart, which has risen over 70% since the first quarter [2][3] - Funds that have adopted a broader definition of "consumption," including technology stocks, have outperformed traditional consumption-focused funds [4][5] Market Trends - The traditional consumption sector, represented by liquor stocks, has seen a decline, with the China Securities Liquor Index down approximately 8% year-to-date [3] - Despite the overall market challenges, there are signs of potential recovery in the consumption sector, particularly for liquor stocks, which may see a turnaround after four years of decline [7] New Consumption Focus - Fund managers remain optimistic about the new consumption sector, which is characterized by structural opportunities and is expected to benefit from macroeconomic factors such as policy support and liquidity [6] - The new consumption market is increasingly appealing to younger consumers, with trends in personalized and emotional consumption driving growth [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The domestic tourism during the National Day holiday showed stable performance with a year-on-year increase in tourist numbers but a decrease in per capita spending [16][22] - The global and Chinese vehicle toy markets reached sizes of 967 billion and 151 billion respectively in 2023, indicating a strong market potential for this category [30][36] - The craft beer market in China is projected to grow from 428 billion in 2022 to over 2000 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [53][56] - The beauty sector on Douyin (TikTok) saw a year-on-year GMV increase of 19.69% in September, with the top 20 brands achieving a total GMV exceeding 30 billion [72] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism - During the 2025 National Day holiday, domestic tourism reached 8.88 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with total tourism revenue of 809 billion, also up by 1% [16][17] - The average spending per person decreased by 0.6% to 911 yuan [16] - Cross-regional travel volume increased by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating strong long-distance travel intentions among residents [18][22] Vehicle Toys - The vehicle toy market is the second largest toy category, with a global market size of 967 billion and a Chinese market size of 151 billion in 2023 [30][36] - The market share for vehicle toys is approximately 12.5% globally and 14.4% in China [30][36] - The sales of vehicle toys in the G12 countries are expected to grow by 3% in 2024, continuing a five-year trend of positive growth [30] Craft Beer - The craft beer market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the number of craft beer outlets reaching 16,600 by mid-2025, a 28% increase from the previous year [59][65] - The market is driven by a shift towards premium experiences, with the younger generation contributing significantly to sales [53][56] - The penetration rate of craft beer in China is still below 5%, compared to 13.2% in the US, indicating substantial growth potential [55][56] Beauty Sector - The beauty category on Douyin experienced a significant increase in GMV, with the top 20 brands capturing a market share of 17.6% [72] - Domestic brands are gaining traction, with over 50% of the GMV from the top 20 brands coming from local products [72] - The price distribution in the beauty market is becoming more balanced, with a notable increase in the share of affordable products [75]

Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy of Jiang Weihua emphasizes a deep understanding of the essence of business and the importance of aligning company strategy with industry trends for sustainable growth and shareholder returns [3][4]. Investment Philosophy - Jiang Weihua dedicates over 80% of his efforts to evaluating how a company's business actions impact its value, considering industry trends, strategic alignment, and management quality [5][6]. - The focus is on assessing business activities first, followed by waiting for appropriate market prices, while macroeconomic factors are deemed less significant [5][6]. Stock Selection Methodology - Jiang Weihua employs a unique stock selection methodology that prioritizes understanding the core production factors that create competitive advantages for companies [6][7]. - The definition of a "good company" is adaptable and should align with the investment institution's management scale, with smaller, agile organizations being more capable of seizing strategic opportunities [7]. Investment Focus Areas - Jiang Weihua has identified three key areas for investment opportunities: innovative pharmaceuticals, overseas expansion in the manufacturing sector, and emerging consumer markets [8][9][10]. - In the innovative pharmaceuticals sector, Chinese companies are recognized for their global-leading drug development capabilities, particularly in obesity and cancer immunotherapy [9]. - The overseas expansion of Chinese manufacturing firms is expected to yield more orders in the current global environment, while emerging consumer markets, especially in high-end electric vehicles and smart driving technology, present significant growth potential [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Haidilao, and China Feihe, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant industry news, including Mixue's acquisition of Fulujia for approximately 297 million RMB, and the launch of new products by Bloks at an exhibition [6]. - Pop Mart's new product series sold out immediately upon release, indicating strong consumer demand [6]. - Xiaocaiyuan reported impressive operating data during the National Day holiday, with over 2.25 million customers served, a 21% year-on-year increase [6]. - Haidilao's average daily consumption of fresh beef exceeded 35 tons during the holiday period, reflecting robust sales performance [6]. Weekly Performance Summary - Key performers in the F&B sector included Guming (+14.8%), Mixue Group (+9.9%), and Xiaocaiyuan (+8.5%), while underperformers included Helens (-5.7%) and Chagee (-6.8%) [7]. - In the trendy toy industry, Bloks saw a rise of 10.1%, while Pop Mart had a modest increase of 1.9% [7]. - The home appliance sector saw declines in companies like Roborock (-5.7%) and TCL Electronics (-7.7%) [7].

点击上图▲立即收听 " 试图把现场体验当作商品，你就有可能毁掉这种体验。 " 坊间曾言，人生有三友，医生、律师、保险专家……如今可能要不情不愿改成： "人生有三友：医生、律师和黄牛。" 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 欲望无处不在，黄牛亦如是。 就拿刚刚过去的国庆假期来说，景德镇的"鸡排哥"李俊永在被流量层层围住的同时，也成了黄牛的逐利对象。 原价6块一份的鸡排，若是"开摊第一份"，将被卖到200元；若只为一口鸡排，黄牛开价30-50元替人排队；若不想排队又想见鸡排哥，150元转让 靠前排队号码…… 看起来虽然很荒唐，但在黄牛眼中，能说会道、擅长制造情绪价值的"鸡排哥"是时下最热的"社交货币"。由此，"见到了鸡排哥"或"吃到鸡排哥的 鸡排"的现场体验，俨然变成了一张张能加价卖出的"演唱会门票"。 如今，我们的生活中，很难不和擅长"捕捉流量"的黄牛发生联结：从一张演唱会的门票、一个热门景区的预约名额、一座知名高校的参观，到一款 不知结果的爆款盲盒、一家网红餐厅的位置、一台新款顶配手机、一次足球比赛、一场大型展会等等。 与此同时，他们的话语权，也变得越来越大了。 —— 阿兰 · 克鲁格（经济学家） 流量 ...

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise approximately $300 million [1] - The brand has emerged as the largest and fastest-growing潮玩 collection brand in China, with a projected GMV exceeding 2.4 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - TOP TOY's growth is closely tied to Miniso's resources and market strategies, particularly as Miniso accelerates its North American expansion [2][3] Company Growth and Market Position - TOP TOY was established during the market boom following the listing of Pop Mart and has since become a significant player in the潮玩 industry [2] - The brand has expanded to 299 stores by September 2025, with operations extending to Thailand and Japan [2] - TOP TOY's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 1.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.8% [3] Business Model and Channel Strategy - TOP TOY operates under a "light asset" model, leveraging Miniso's extensive retail network, with 85% of its stores being partner-operated [3][4] - Approximately 50% of TOP TOY's annual sales come from its relationship with Miniso, indicating a heavy reliance on Miniso's distribution channels [4][9] - The partnership with Yonghui Supermarket, where Miniso is the largest shareholder, may provide additional sales channels for TOP TOY [4] Financial Performance and Projections - In the first half of 2025, TOP TOY's revenue from搪胶毛绒 products reached 146 million yuan, a 2.3-fold increase compared to the previous year [4] - Sales expenses doubled to 160 million yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily due to investments in overseas market expansion [6][7] Challenges and Strategic Considerations - TOP TOY faces operational challenges due to rapid expansion, with inventory turnover days increasing from 38.1 to 50.5 days [7] - The average transaction value and product price have decreased by 10%, impacting same-store GMV growth rates [7] - The brand's reliance on external IPs remains a concern, with self-developed IP contributing only 0.36% of total revenue in 2024 [12][20] IP Development and Future Outlook - TOP TOY has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its IP portfolio, increasing its self-developed IPs from 8 to 17 [23] - The company aims to establish a stronger presence in the潮玩 market by developing proprietary IPs, which is crucial for long-term competitiveness [21][22] - Future projections indicate a decline in revenue contribution from Miniso, expected to drop below 40% by 2028 [9][10]

名创优品旗下潮玩品牌TOP TOY正式向港交所递交招股书，寻求分拆上市。TOP TOY定位潮玩集合零 售，近年增长迅速，但与依赖自有IP的行业龙头泡泡玛特相比，在IP壁垒和盈利能力上仍有差距。 ...

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, is seeking to raise approximately $300 million through an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its IP matrix, global market presence, brand marketing, and digital capabilities [1] - Despite being a latecomer in the潮玩 industry, TOP TOY has shown significant growth, positioning itself as the "largest and fastest-growing潮玩集合 brand in China" [2][3] Company Overview - Established in 2020, TOP TOY sells products across various categories, including self-owned IP, licensed IP, and third-party IP, with a portfolio of 17 self-owned IPs [2] - The company is projected to achieve a GMV of 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, ranking third among China's top five潮玩 retailers by retail sales [2] Financial Performance - TOP TOY's revenue is expected to grow from 679 million yuan in 2022 to 1.909 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 67.7% [3] - The company turned a profit in 2023, with net profits of 212 million yuan, 297 million yuan, and 180 million yuan for 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [3] Market Strategy - TOP TOY leverages Miniso's supply chain and distribution channels to rapidly market products based on globally recognized IPs, achieving significant sales figures [4] - As of June 30, 2025, TOP TOY operates 293 stores globally, with a significant number being franchise stores, indicating aggressive channel expansion [4] Dependency on Miniso - Miniso remains TOP TOY's largest channel and customer, with sales to Miniso accounting for 36.8%, 53.5%, and 48.3% of TOP TOY's revenue in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively [5] Challenges and Risks - The reliance on licensed IP poses a challenge for TOP TOY's long-term profitability, as competition for IP rights increases and costs rise [6][8] - The company has struggled with developing its own IP, leading to a shift towards a lower-risk model of licensed IP [7] Future Directions - TOP TOY is attempting to enhance its self-owned IP portfolio through acquisitions and collaborations with artists, aiming to create unique products that stand out in the market [10] - The company has seen improvements in profitability, with self-developed products accounting for 49.1% of revenue in 2024, up from less than 40% in 2022 [11] Competitive Landscape - The潮玩 industry is characterized by the need for brands to create emotional connections with consumers, as demonstrated by successful brands like泡泡玛特 [12] - TOP TOY's future success will depend on its ability to establish a distinct brand identity and not solely rely on external IP and Miniso's ecosystem [12]

Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) market is entering a new competitive phase, with MINISO's own潮玩 brand "WAKUKU" challenging the long-standing dominance of Pop Mart in the industry [3][4] - The潮玩 industry in China is projected to reach a total value of 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 20% [4] - The market remains highly fragmented, with even leading players like Pop Mart holding only an 11.5% market share by GMV in 2024, indicating ample room for new entrants [6] Industry Growth and Competition - The潮玩 market has seen a continuous increase in scale, with over 50,000 related enterprises currently in operation [5] - WAKUKU's strategy of offering products at fixed prices rather than through random draws is expected to lower purchase barriers and expand its consumer base [6] - The success of WAKUKU has led to increased attention from investors, with reports of potential investments in潮玩 brands like TNT [7] Brand Development and IP Strategy - The success of LABUBU, a潮玩 brand, highlights the importance of storytelling and cultural integration in building a globally recognized IP [8][11] - Pop Mart has seen a significant increase in its market value, with its stock price rising approximately 470% over the past year, surpassing the combined market value of major international toy companies [11] - The competition between Pop Mart and MINISO reflects different strategic approaches, with Pop Mart focusing on IP ecosystem development and MINISO leveraging its extensive distribution channels [12] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The潮玩 industry is transitioning from a phase of explosive growth to one of consolidation, where companies with strong original design and cultural branding will dominate [12] - The emergence of imitation products has raised concerns about market trust and product differentiation, potentially impacting the overall潮玩 market [13] - Strengthening IP protection is crucial for maintaining brand integrity and fostering consumer trust in the潮玩 sector [14]

好文7387字|16分钟阅读 作者：小明|编辑：萧炎 边界感小站寄语："边界，不是墙，是给自由留的缝" 欢迎您的阅读…… 阅读小提示：因该篇文章篇幅较长，为方便您快速获取价值信息，作者一划重点助您快速阅读 00后年轻人正以他们独特的认知方式，重新定义生活方式与人生选择。72%的年轻人通过专业见解定义自我 ，而仅有23.7%的父母能真正理解他们的消费 动机。这种认知鸿沟，恰如庄子《秋水》中河伯与海神的对话，揭示了人类认知的相对性与局限性。当00后为99元的潮玩支付45万元的溢价时，父母眼中 看到的却是"塑料娃娃为何比黄金贵"的困惑。认知的差异，不仅体现在价格判断上，更深刻影响着代际间的理解和沟通。 故事始于一个普通的下午，在北京合生汇的泡泡玛特机器人商店旁，一位年轻男子正在教一位阿姨如何使用手机小程序抢购Labubu盲盒。阿姨反复打 开、退出小程序，试图刷出一套回流（被拍下但未付款的商品会重新放回库存中），她说："女儿想要的这套Labubu，最高时一度要3000多元，现在1750 元的价格还算可以接受。" 这个场景折射出00后与父母之间巨大的认知差异。00后群体成长于物质生活相对充裕的互联网时代，他们更注重情感 ...